Common cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (revised version)

Although there has been substantial research on long-run co-movement (common trends) in the empirical macroeconomics literature. little or no work has been done on short run co-movement (common cycles). Investigating common cycles is important on two grounds: first. their existence is an implication of most dynamic macroeconomic models. Second. they impose important restrictions on dynamic systems. Which can be used for efficient estimation and forecasting. In this paper. using a methodology that takes into account short- and long-run co-movement restrictions. we investigate their existence in a multivariate data set containing U.S. per-capita output. consumption. and investment. As predicted by theory. the data have common trends and common cycles. Based on the results of a post-sample forecasting comparison between restricted and unrestricted systems. we show that a non-trivial loss of efficiency results when common cycles are ignored. If permanent shocks are associated with changes in productivity. the latter fails to be an important source of variation for output and investment contradicting simple aggregate dynamic models. Nevertheless. these shocks play a very important role in explaining the variation of consumption. Showing evidence of smoothing. Furthermore. it seems that permanent shocks to output play a much more important role in explaining unemployment fluctuations than previously thought.

Study of Singularities in Nonsmooth Dynamical Systems via Singular Perturbation

In this article we describe some qualitative and geometric aspects of nonsmooth dynamical systems theory around typical singularities. We also establish an interaction between nonsmooth systems and geometric singular perturbation theory. Such systems are represented by discontinuous vector fields on R(l), l >= 2, where their discontinuity set is a codimension one algebraic variety. By means of a regularization process proceeded by a blow-up technique we are able to bring about some results that bridge the space between discontinuous systems and singularly perturbed smooth systems. We also present an analysis of a subclass of discontinuous vector fields that present transient behavior in the 2-dimensional case, and we dedicate a section to providing sufficient conditions in order for our systems to have local asymptotic stability.

Local dimension and finite time prediction in spatiotemporal chaotic systems

Predictability is related to the uncertainty in the outcome of future events during the evolution of the state of a system. The cluster weighted modeling (CWM) is interpreted as a tool to detect such an uncertainty and used it in spatially distributed systems. As such, the simple prediction algorithm in conjunction with the CWM forms a powerful set of methods to relate predictability and dimension.

Avaliação da dinâmica dos processos erosivos lineares e sua relação com a evolução do uso da terra

The development of linear erosion processes is directly related with the environment natural characteristics or with modifications that have occurred on them by the anthropic action. In this context, the present article has as a general objective to evaluate the dynamic of the linear erosion processes and their relations with the evolution of the land use and with the lito-pedologic characteristics of the Cavalheiro hydrographic basin - Analândia, SP. In order to reach such objective, maps of erosive features and land use of several settings were elaborated, besides cartographic representations of the geological and pedological data of the study area. The obtained data were analyzed starting from the principles that concern to the General Systems Theory. Such analysis evidenced the intrinsic bond of the development of linear erosion processes with the several forms of land use and with the natural attributes of the studied area. Therefore, the methodological procedure adopted in this research has been considered as fundamental tool to understand the linear erosion processes dynamic, making it possible to take data of extreme relevance for the planning of the use and occupation of the land.

Generic bifurcation of refracted systems

In this article we discuss some qualitative and geometric aspects of non-smooth dynamical systems theory. Our goal is to study the diagram bifurcation of typical singularities that occur generically in one parameter families of certain piecewise smooth vector fields named Refracted Systems. Such systems has a codimension-one submanifold as its discontinuity set. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

The use of Gramian matrices for aeroelastic stability analysis

Most of the established procedures for analysis of aeroelastic flutter in the development of aircraft are based on frequency domain methods. Proposing new methodologies in this field is always a challenge, because the new methods need to be validated by many experimental procedures. With the interest for new flight control systems and nonlinear behavior of aeroelastic structures, other strategies may be necessary to complete the analysis of such systems. If the aeroelastic model can be written in time domain, using state-space formulation, for instance, then many of the tools used in stability analysis of dynamic systems may be used to help providing an insight into the aeroelastic phenomenon. In this respect, this paper presents a discussion on the use of Gramian matrices to determine conditions of aeroelastic flutter. The main goal of this work is to introduce how observability gramian matrix can be used to identify the system instability. To explain the approach, the theory is outlined and simulations are carried out on two benchmark problems. Results are compared with classical methods to validate the approach and a reduction of computational time is obtained for the second example. © 2013 Douglas Domingues Bueno et al.

Identificação e controle de sistemas dinâmicos utilizando redes wavelets

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise da fragilidade ambiental em área urbana: o caso da bacia hidrográfica do Córrego do Castelo, Bauru (SP)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Processos enunciativos e gramática operatória: o espaço semântico-enunciativo dos marcadores er e estar

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

MODEL-BASED COMPENSATION FOR BURST MESSAGE LOSS IN WIRELESS NETWORKED CONTROL SYSTEMS: EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS

A recent trend in networked control systems (NCSs) is the use of wireless networks enabling interoperability between existing wired and wireless systems. One of the major challenges in these wireless NCSs (WNCSs) is to overcome the impact of the message loss that degrades the performance and stability of these systems. Moreover, this impact is greater when dealing with burst or successive message losses. This paper discusses and presents the experimental results of a compensation strategy to deal with this burst message loss problem in which a NCS mathematical model runs in parallel with the physical process, providing sensor virtual data in case of packet losses. Running in real-time inside the controller, the mathematical model is updated online with real control signals sent to the actuator, which provides better reliability for the estimated sensor feedback (virtual data) transmitted to the controller each time a message loss occurs. In order to verify the advantages of applying this model-based compensation strategy for burst message losses in WNCSs, the control performance of a motor control system using CAN and ZigBee networks is analyzed. Experimental results led to the conclusion that the developed compensation strategy provided robustness and could maintain the control performance of the WNCS against different message loss scenarios.

A antropogeomorfologia na bacia do Córrego do Cavalheiro - Analândia/SP: uma avaliação da dinâmica do uso da terra e sua adequabilidade a legislação ambiental e a capacidade de uso

The assessment of land use dynamic can be an instrument for analysis in anthropogeomorphology, which would allow one to verify the human geomorphological actions and its various implications in changing the original morphology for the creation of a human morphology. This study aimed to consider the land use dynamics and its interference in the morphology of Cavalheiro Stream Basin. From this assessment, to understand the implications of land use in the creation of a human morphology, as well as to analyze if the current use is in accordance with the legal restrictions placed by ongoing environmental legislation and with the ability to land use. The chosen of this studied area was due to assumptions raised by Pinton (2007) for changes in the dynamic of rainwater erosion of this area caused by human actions, specially the cultivation of sugar cane in morphologies that are unfit for it. The search took as methodological support the principles that concern the General Systems Theory, trying to see the watershed as an open system. The geomorphological data, of land use and of legal restrictions to the use and occupation of land, were collected from different cartographic techniques. Besides, it was developed a sketch map of land use capacity by adapting the technique proposed by Lepsch (1983). This way, the data obtained in this survey are considered capable to provide subsidies for the identification of changes in original morphology of the Cavalheiro Stream Basin and the genesis of a human morphology, as well as conflicts and adjustments of current land use in environmental system and on the legal restrictions outlined in the ongoing environmental legislation, contributing to a proper environmental planning with the characteristics of the physical environmental system of this basin

Contribuição metodológica para o diagnóstico da dinâmica erosiva linear e seu prognóstico evolutivo visando subsidiar projetos de recuperação

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Discrete Event Systems based Design Patterns for Diagnosability Analysis of Automated Manufacturing Systems

The main goal of this thesis is to facilitate the process of industrial automated systems development applying formal methods to ensure the reliability of systems. A new formulation of distributed diagnosability problem in terms of Discrete Event Systems theory and automata framework is presented, which is then used to enforce the desired property of the system, rather then just verifying it. This approach tackles the state explosion problem with modeling patterns and new algorithms, aimed for verification of diagnosability property in the context of the distributed diagnosability problem. The concepts are validated with a newly developed software tool.

Synthesis and conformational analysis of heteroaromatic atropisomeric systems

The research work reported in this Thesis was held along two main lines of research. The first and main line of research is about the synthesis of heteroaromatic compounds with increasing steric hindrance, with the aim of preparing stable atropisomers. The main tools used for the study of these dynamic systems, as described in the Introduction, are DNMR, coupled with line shape simulation and DFT calculations, aimed to the conformational analysis for the prediction of the geometries and energy barriers to the trasition states. This techniques have been applied to the research projects about: • atropisomers of arylmaleimides; • atropisomers of 4-arylpyrazolo[3,4-b]pyridines; • study of the intramolecular NO2/CO interaction in solution; • study on 2-arylpyridines. Parallel to the main project, in collaboration with other groups, the research line about determination of the absolute configuration was followed. The products, deriving form organocatalytic reactions, in many cases couldn’t be analyzed by means of X-Ray diffraction, making necessary the development of a protocol based on spectroscopic methodologies: NMR, circular dichroism and computational tools (DFT, TD-DFT) have been implemented in this scope. In this Thesis are reported the determination of the absolute configuration of: • substituted 1,2,3,4-tetrahydroquinolines; • compounds from enantioselective Friedel-Crafts alkylation-acetalization cascade of naphthols with α,β-unsaturated cyclic ketones; • substituted 3,4-annulated indoles.

Mensch, Natur-Interaktionen im Oberen Mittelrheintal - Komplexitätstheoretische Ansätze am Beispiel des Weinbaus

Kulturlandschaften als Ausdruck einer über viele Jahrhunderte währenden intensiven Interaktion zwischen Menschen und der sie umgebenden natürlichen Umwelt, sind ein traditionelles Forschungsobjekt der Geographie. Mensch/Natur-Interaktionen führen zu Veränderungen der natürlichen Umwelt, indem Menschen Landschaften kultivieren und modifizieren. Die Mensch/Natur-Interaktionen im Weinbau sind intensiv rückgekoppelt, Veränderungen der natürlichen Umwelt wirken auf die in den Kulturlandschaften lebenden und wirtschaftenden Winzer zurück und beeinflussen deren weiteres Handeln, was wiederum Einfluss auf die Entwicklung der gesamten Weinbau-Kulturlandschaft hat. Kulturlandschaft wird aus diesem Grund als ein heterogenes Wirkungsgefüge sozialer und natürlicher Elemente konzeptionalisiert, an dessen Entwicklung soziale und natürliche Elemente gleichzeitig und wechselseitig beteiligt sind. Grundlegend für die vorliegende Arbeit ist die Überzeugung, dass sich Kulturlandschaften durch Mensch/Natur-Interaktionen permanent neu organisieren und nie in einen Gleichgewichtszustand geraten, sondern sich ständig weiterentwickeln und wandeln. Die Komplexitätstheorie bietet hierfür die geeignete theoretische Grundlage. Sie richtet ihren Fokus auf die Entwicklung und den Wandel von Systemen und sucht dabei nach den Funktionsweisen von Systemzusammenhängen, um ein Verständnis für das Gesamtsystemverhalten von nicht-linearen dynamischen Systemen zu erreichen. Auf der Grundlage der Komplexitätstheorie wird ein Untersuchungsschema entwickelt, dass es ermöglich, die sozio-ökonomischen und raum-strukturellen Veränderungsprozesse in der Kulturlandschaftsentwicklung als sich wechselseitig beeinflussenden Systemzusammenhang zu erfassen. Die Rekonstruktion von Entwicklungsphasen, die Analysen von raum-strukturellen Mustern und Akteurskonstellationen sowie die Identifikation von Bifurkationspunkten in der Systemgeschichte sind dabei von übergeordneter Bedeutung. Durch die Untersuchung sowohl der physisch-räumlichen als auch der sozio-ökonomischen Dimension der Kulturlandschaftsentwicklung im Weinbau des Oberen Mittelrheintals soll ein Beitrag für die geographische Erforschung von Mensch/Natur-Interaktionen im Schnittstellenbereich von Physischer Geographie und Humangeographie geleistet werden. Die Anwendung des Untersuchungsschemas erfolgt auf den Weinbau im Oberen Mittelrheintal. Das Anbaugebiet ist seit vielen Jahrzehnten einem starken Rückgang an Weinbaubetrieben und Rebfläche unterworfen. Die rückläufigen Entwicklungen seit 1950 verliefen dabei nicht linear, sondern differenzierten das System in unterschiedliche Entwicklungspfade aus. Die Betriebsstrukturen und die Rahmenbedingungen im Weinbau veränderten sich grundlegend, was sichtbare Spuren in der Kulturlandschaft hinterließ. Dies zu rekonstruieren, zu analysieren und die zu verschiedenen Phasen der Entwicklung bedeutenden externen und internen Einflussfaktoren zu identifizieren, soll dazu beitragen, ein tief greifendes Verständnis für das selbstorganisierte Systemverhalten zu generieren und darauf basierende Handlungsoptionen für zukünftige Eingriffe in die Systementwicklung aufzuzeigen