984 resultados para dynamic predictor
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Safety is one of the major concerns of process safety engineers in most industrial facilities all over the world. To this scope, some events play an important role once the effect of their consequences can be assumed as totally undesirable. One of these events refers to the occurrence of a fire. Such event can result in catastrophic consequences for life, equipment, and continuity of activities or even leading to environmental damage. A fire protection equipment with low reliability means that this equipment are often unavailable and thus the risk of a fire increases. Maintenance of fire protection equipment is very important because this kind of systems is mostly in a dormant mode, which gives uncertainty about their operability when demanded in a real situation of fire. This article outlines the importance of tests, inspection, and maintenance operations in the context of a fire sprinkler system and proposes a methodology based on international standards and supported by test/inspection reports to correct the frequency of these actions according to the level of degradation of the components and regarding safety purposes. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.
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This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.
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This paper studies the dynamical properties of systems with backlash and impact phenomena. This type of non-linearity can be tackled in the perspective of the fractional calculus theory. Fractional and integer order models are compared and their influence upon the emerging dynamics is analysed. It is demonstrated that fractional models can memorize dynamical effects due to multiple micro-collisions.
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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores
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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática
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Proceedings of the First International Conference on Coastal Conservation and Management in the Atlantic and Mediterranean, p. 193-200
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The restructuring of electricity markets, conducted to increase the competition in this sector, and decrease the electricity prices, brought with it an enormous increase in the complexity of the considered mechanisms. The electricity market became a complex and unpredictable environment, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. Software tools became, therefore, essential to provide simulation and decision support capabilities, in order to potentiate the involved players’ actions. This paper presents the development of a metalearner, applied to the decision support of electricity markets’ negotiation entities. The proposed metalearner executes a dynamic artificial neural network to create its own output, taking advantage on several learning algorithms implemented in ALBidS, an adaptive learning system that provides decision support to electricity markets’ players. The proposed metalearner considers different weights for each strategy, depending on its individual quality of performance. The results of the proposed method are studied and analyzed in scenarios based on real electricity markets’ data, using MASCEM - a multi-agent electricity market simulator that simulates market players’ operation in the market.
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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em BioOrgânica
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The Smart Grid environment allows the integration of resources of small and medium players through the use of Demand Response programs. Despite the clear advantages for the grid, the integration of consumers must be carefully done. This paper proposes a system which simulates small and medium players. The system is essential to produce tests and studies about the active participation of small and medium players in the Smart Grid environment. When comparing to similar systems, the advantages comprise the capability to deal with three types of loads – virtual, contextual and real. It can have several loads optimization modules and it can run in real time. The use of modules and the dynamic configuration of the player results in a system which can represent different players in an easy and independent way. This paper describes the system and all its capabilities.
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A função de escalonamento desempenha um papel importante nos sistemas de produção. Os sistemas de escalonamento têm como objetivo gerar um plano de escalonamento que permite gerir de uma forma eficiente um conjunto de tarefas que necessitam de ser executadas no mesmo período de tempo pelos mesmos recursos. Contudo, adaptação dinâmica e otimização é uma necessidade crítica em sistemas de escalonamento, uma vez que as organizações de produção têm uma natureza dinâmica. Nestas organizações ocorrem distúrbios nas condições requisitos de trabalho regularmente e de forma inesperada. Alguns exemplos destes distúrbios são: surgimento de uma nova tarefa, cancelamento de uma tarefa, alteração na data de entrega, entre outros. Estes eventos dinâmicos devem ser tidos em conta, uma vez que podem influenciar o plano criado, tornando-o ineficiente. Portanto, ambientes de produção necessitam de resposta imediata para estes eventos, usando um método de reescalonamento em tempo real, para minimizar o efeito destes eventos dinâmicos no sistema de produção. Deste modo, os sistemas de escalonamento devem de uma forma automática e inteligente, ser capazes de adaptar o plano de escalonamento que a organização está a seguir aos eventos inesperados em tempo real. Esta dissertação aborda o problema de incorporar novas tarefas num plano de escalonamento já existente. Deste modo, é proposta uma abordagem de otimização – Hiper-heurística baseada em Seleção Construtiva para Escalonamento Dinâmico- para lidar com eventos dinâmicos que podem ocorrer num ambiente de produção, a fim de manter o plano de escalonamento, o mais robusto possível. Esta abordagem é inspirada em computação evolutiva e hiper-heurísticas. Do estudo computacional realizado foi possível concluir que o uso da hiper-heurística de seleção construtiva pode ser vantajoso na resolução de problemas de otimização de adaptação dinâmica.
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The objectives of this study were to compare how different frailty measures (Frailty Phenotype/FP, Groningen Frailty Indicator/GFI and Tilburg Frailty Indicator/TFI) predict short-term adverse outcomes. Secondarily, adopting a multidimensional approach to frailty (integral conceptual model–TFI), this study aims to compare how physical, psychological and social frailty predict the outcomes. A longitudinal study was carried out with 95 community-dwelling elderly. Participants were assessed at baseline for frailty, determinants of frailty, and adverse outcomes (healthcare utilization, quality of life, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living/ADL and IADL). Ten months later the outcomes were assessed again. Frailty was associated with specific healthcare utilization indicators: the FP with a greater utilization of informal care; GFI with an increased contact with healthcare professionals; and TFI with a higher amount of contacts with a general practitioner. After controlling for the effect of life-course determinants, comorbidity and adverse outcome at baseline, GFI predicted IADL disability and TFI predicted quality of life. The effect of the FP on the outcomes was not significant, when compared with the other measures. However, when comparing TFI’s domains, the physical domain was the most significant predictor of the outcomes, even explaining part of the variance of ADL disability. Frailty at baseline was associated with adverse outcomes at follow-up. However, the relationship of each frailty measure (FP, GFI and TFI) with the outcomes was different. In spite of the role of psychological frailty, TFI’s physical domain was the determinant factor for predicting disability and most of the quality of life.
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IEEE International Conference on Cyber Physical Systems, Networks and Applications (CPSNA'15), Hong Kong, China.
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This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.
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Background: Upper arm anthropometry has been used in the nutritional assessment of small infants, but it has not yet been validated as a predictor of regional body composition in this population. Objective: Validation of measured and derived upper arm anthropometry as a predictor of arm fat and fat-free compartments in preterm infants. Methods: Upper arm anthropometry, including the upper arm cross-sectional areas, was compared individually or in combination with other anthropometric measurements, with the cross-sectional arm areas measured by magnetic resonance imaging, in a cohort of consecutive preterm appropriate-for-gestationalage neonates, just before discharge. Results: Thirty infants born with (mean 8 SD) a gestational age of 30.7 8 1.9 weeks and birth weight of 1,380 8 325 g, were assessed at 35.4 8 1.1 weeks of corrected gestational age, weighing 1,785 8 93 g. None of the anthropometric measurements are reliable predictors (r 2 ! 0.56) of the measurements obtained by magnetic resonance imaging, individually or in combination with other anthropometric measurements. Conclusion: Both measured anthropometry and derived upper arm anthropometry are inaccurate predictors of regional body composition in preterm appropriate-for-gestational-age infants.