Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe

Abstract This study presents a model intercomparison of four regional climate models (RCMs) and one variable resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) applied over Europe with special focus on the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. The models simulated the 15 years from 1979 to 1993 by using quasi-observed boundary conditions derived from ECMWF re-analyses (ERA). The model intercomparison focuses on two large atchments representing two different climate conditions covering two areas of major research interest within Europe. The first is the Danube catchment which represents a continental climate dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. It is used to analyse the common model error of a too dry and too warm simulation of the summertime climate of southeastern Europe. This summer warming and drying problem is seen in many RCMs, and to a less extent in GCMs. The second area is the Baltic Sea catchment which represents maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the Baltic Sea. This catchment is a research area of many studies within Europe and also covered by the BALTEX program. The observed data used are monthly mean surface air temperature, precipitation and river discharge. For all models, these are used to estimate mean monthly biases of all components of the hydrological cycle over land. In addition, the mean monthly deviations of the surface energy fluxes from ERA data are computed. Atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA are compared with those of one model to provide an independent estimate of the convergence bias derived from the observed data. These help to add weight to some of the inferred estimates and explain some of the discrepancies between them. An evaluation of these biases and deviations suggests possible sources of error in each of the models. For the Danube catchment, systematic errors in the dynamics cause the prominent summer drying problem for three of the RCMs, while for the fourth RCM this is related to deficiencies in the land surface parametrization. The AGCM does not show this drying problem. For the Baltic Sea catchment, all models similarily overestimate the precipitation throughout the year except during the summer. This model deficit is probably caused by the internal model parametrizations, such as the large-scale condensation and the convection schemes.

Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model

The evaluation of the quality and usefulness of climate modeling systems is dependent upon an assessment of both the limited predictability of the climate system and the uncertainties stemming from model formulation. In this study a methodology is presented that is suited to assess the performance of a regional climate model (RCM), based on its ability to represent the natural interannual variability on monthly and seasonal timescales. The methodology involves carrying out multiyear ensemble simulations (to assess the predictability bounds within which the model can be evaluated against observations) and multiyear sensitivity experiments using different model formulations (to assess the model uncertainty). As an example application, experiments driven by assimilated lateral boundary conditions and sea surface temperatures from the ECMWF Reanalysis Project (ERA-15, 1979–1993) were conducted. While the ensemble experiment demonstrates that the predictability of the regional climate varies strongly between different seasons and regions, being weakest during the summer and over continental regions, important sensitivities of the modeling system to parameterization choices are uncovered. In particular, compensating mechanisms related to the long-term representation of the water cycle are revealed, in which summer dry and hot conditions at the surface, resulting from insufficient evaporation, can persist despite insufficient net solar radiation (a result of unrealistic cloud-radiative feedbacks).

Chemistry–climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes

The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 6 0.07 K decade21 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 Kdecade21 at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces awestward acceleration of the lower-stratosphericwind over theAntarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade21 in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (;70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade21, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward acceleration of the subtropical jets, which increases the upward flux of (parameterized) momentum reaching the lower stratosphere in these latitudes.

Chemistry‐climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone

Coupled chemistry‐climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.

A global picture of the seasonal persistence of stratospheric ozone anomalies

Interannual anomalies in vertical profiles of stratospheric ozone, in both equatorial and extratropical regions, have been shown to exhibit a strong seasonal persistence, namely, extended temporal autocorrelations during certain times of the calendar year. Here we investigate the relationship between this seasonal persistence of equatorial and extratropical ozone anomalies using the SAGE‐corrected SBUV data set, which provides a long‐term ozone profile time series. For the regions of the stratosphere where ozone is under purely dynamical or purely photochemical control, the seasonal persistence of equatorial and extratropical ozone anomalies arises from distinct mechanisms but preserves an anticorrelation between tropical and extratropical anomalies established during the winter period. In the 16–10 hPa layer, where ozone is controlled by both dynamical and photochemical processes, equatorial ozone anomalies exhibit a completely different behavior compared to ozone anomalies above and below in terms of variability, seasonal persistence, and especially the relationship between equatorial and extratropical ozone. Cross‐latitude‐time correlations show that for the 16–10 hPa layer, Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical ozone anomalies show the same variability as equatorial ozone anomalies but lagged by 3–6 months. High correlation coefficients are observed during the time frame of seasonal persistence of ozone anomalies, which is June– December for equatorial ozone and shifts by approximately 3–6 months when going from the equatorial region to NH extratropics. Thus in the transition zone between dynamical and photochemical control, equatorial ozone anomalies established in boreal summer/autumn are mirrored by NH extratropical ozone anomalies with a time lag similar to transport time scales. Equatorial ozone anomalies established in boreal winter/spring are likewise correlated with ozone anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics with a time lag comparable to transport time scales, similar to what is seen in the NH. However, the correlations between equatorial and SH extratropical ozone in the 10–16 hPa layer are weak.

Synoptic-scale controls of persistent low temperature and icy weather over southern China in January 2008

In January 2008, central and southern China experienced persistent low temperatures, freezing rain, and snow. The large-scale conditions associated with the occurrence and development of these snowstorms are examined in order to identify the key synoptic controls leading to this event. Three main factors are identified: 1) the persistent blocking high over Siberia, which remained quasi-stationary around 65°E for 3 weeks, led to advection of dry and cold Siberian air down to central and southern China; 2) a strong persistent southwesterly flow associated with the western Pacific subtropical high led to enhanced moisture advection from the Bay of Bengal into central and southern China; and 3) the deep inversion layer in the lower troposphere associated with the extended snow cover over most of central and southern China. The combination of these three factors is likely responsible for the unusual severity of the event, and hence a long return period

Late Quaternary highstands at Lake Chilwa, Malawi: frequency, timing and possible forcing mechanisms in the last 44ka

The extensive shoreline deposits of Lake Chilwa, southern Malawi, a shallow water body today covering 600 km2 of a basin of 7500 km2, are investigated for their record of late Quaternary highstands. OSL dating, applied to 36 samples from five sediment cores from the northern and western marginal sand ridges, reveal a highstand record spanning 44 ka. Using two different grouping methods, highstand phases are identified at 43.7–33.3 ka, 26.2–21.0 ka and 17.9–12.0 ka (total error method) or 38.4–35.5 ka, 24.3–22.3 ka, 16.2–15.1 ka and 13.5–12.7 ka (Finite Mixture Model age components) with two further discrete events recorded at 11.01 ± 0.76 ka and 8.52 ± 0.56 ka. Highstands are comparable to the timing of wet phases from other basins in East and southern Africa, demonstrating wet conditions in the region before the LGM, which was dry, and a wet Lateglacial, which commenced earlier in the southern compared to northern hemisphere in East Africa. We find no evidence that wet phases are insolation driven, but analysis of the dataset and GCM modelling experiments suggest that Heinrich events may be associated with enhanced monsoon activity in East Africa in both timing and as a possible causal mechanism.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 and humidity delay leaf fall in Betula pendula, but not in Alnus glutinosa or Populus tremula × tremuloides

Context: Anthropogenic activity has increased the level of atmospheric CO2, which is driving an increase of global temperatures and associated changes in precipitation patterns. At Northern latitudes, one of the likely consequences of global warming is increased precipitation and air humidity. Aims: In this work, the effects of both elevated atmospheric CO2 and increased air humidity on trees commonly growing in northern European forests were assessed. Methods: The work was carried out under field conditions by using Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) and Free Air Humidity Manipulation (FAHM) systems. Leaf litter fall was measured over 4 years (FACE) or 5 years (FAHM) to determine the effects of FACE and FAHM on leaf phenology. Results: Increasing air humidity delayed leaf litter fall in Betula pendula, but not in Populus tremula × tremuloides. Similarly, under elevated atmospheric CO2, leaf litter fall was delayed in Betula pendula, but not in Alnus glutinosa. Increased CO2 appeared to interact with periods of low precipitation in summer and high ozone levels during these periods to effect leaf fall. Conclusions: This work shows that increased CO2 and humidity delay leaf fall, but this effect is species specific.

SPARC Data Initiative: A comparison of ozone climatologies from international satellite limb sounders

A comprehensive quality assessment of the ozone products from 18 limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed intercomparison. The ozone climatologies in form of monthly zonal mean time series covering the upper troposphere to lower mesosphere are obtained from LIMS, SAGE I/II/III, UARS-MLS, HALOE, POAM II/III, SMR, OSIRIS, MIPAS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS, ACE-MAESTRO, Aura-MLS, HIRDLS, and SMILES within 1978–2010. The intercomparisons focus on mean biases of annual zonal mean fields, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles. Additionally, the physical consistency of the data is tested through diagnostics of the quasi-biennial oscillation and Antarctic ozone hole. The comprehensive evaluations reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric ozone mean state is smallest in the tropical and midlatitude middle stratosphere with a 1σ multi-instrument spread of less than ±5%. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the stratosphere, individual discrepancies have been identified, including unrealistic month-to-month fluctuations, large biases in particular atmospheric regions, or inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Notable differences between the data sets exist in the tropical lower stratosphere (with a spread of ±30%) and at high latitudes (±15%). In particular, large relative differences are identified in the Antarctic during the time of the ozone hole, with a spread between the monthly zonal mean fields of ±50%. The evaluations provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of ozone variability, model-measurement comparisons, detection of long-term trends, and data-merging activities.

Reconciliation of halogen-induced ozone loss with the total-column ozone record

The observed depletion of the ozone layer from the 1980s onwards is attributed to halogen source gases emitted by human activities. However, the precision of this attribution is complicated by year-to-year variations in meteorology, that is, dynamical variability, and by changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations. As such, key aspects of the total-column ozone record, which combines changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, remain unexplained, such as the apparent absence of a decline in total-column ozone levels before 1980, and of any long-term decline in total-column ozone levels in the tropics. Here we use a chemistry–climate model to estimate changes in halogen-induced ozone loss between 1960 and 2010; the model is constrained by observed meteorology to remove the effects of dynamical variability, and driven by emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors to separate out changes in tropospheric ozone. We show that halogen-induced ozone loss closely followed stratospheric halogen loading over the studied period. Pronounced enhancements in ozone loss were apparent in both hemispheres following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and, in particular, Mount Pinatubo, which significantly enhanced stratospheric aerosol loads. We further show that approximately 40% of the long-term non-volcanic ozone loss occurred before 1980, and that long-term ozone loss also occurred in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, we show that halogen-induced ozone loss has declined by over 10% since stratospheric halogen loading peaked in the late 1990s, indicating that the recovery of the ozone layer is well underway.

The climate impact of past changes in halocarbons and CO2in the tropical UTLS region

A chemistry-climate model coupled to an ocean model is used to compare the climate impact of past (1960-2010) changes in concentrations of halocarbons with those of CO2 in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The halocarbon contribution to both upper troposphere warming and the associated increase in lower stratospheric upwelling is about 40% as large as that due to CO2. Trends in cold-point temperature and lower stratosphere water vapor are positive for both halocarbons and CO2, and are of about the same magnitude. Trends in lower stratosphere ozone are negative, due to the increased upwelling. These increases in water vapor and decreases in lower stratosphere ozone feed back on lower stratosphere temperature through radiative cooling. The radiative cooling from ozone is about a factor of two larger than that from water vapor in the vicinity of the cold-point tropopause, while water vapor dominates at heights above 50 hPa. For halocarbons this indirect radiative cooling more than offsets the direct radiative warming, and together with the adiabatic cooling accounts for the lack of a halocarbon-induced warming of the lower stratosphere. For CO2 the indirect cooling from increased water vapor and decreased ozone is of comparable magnitude to the direct warming from CO2 in the vicinity of the cold-point tropopause, and (together with the increased upwelling) lowers the height at which CO2 increases induce stratospheric cooling, thus explaining the relatively weak increase in cold-point temperature due to the CO2 increases.

Determination of anthropogenic and biogenic compounds on atmospheric aerosol collected in urban, biomass burning and forest areas in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This study was conducted at three sites of different characteristics in Sao Paulo State Sao Paulo (SPA), Piracicaba (PRB) and Mate Atlantica Forest (MAT) PM(10), n-alkanes. pristane and phytane, PAHs, water-soluble ions and biomass burning tracers like levoglucosan and retene, were determined in quartz fiber filters. Samplings occurred on May 8th to August 8th, 2007 at the MAT site; on August 15th to 29th in 2007 and November 10th to 29th in 2008 at the PRB site and, March 13th to April 4th in 2007 and August 7th to 29th in 2008 at the SPA site Aliphatic compounds emitted biogenically were less abundant at the urban sites than at the forest site, and its distribution showed the influence of tropical vascular plants Air mass transport front biomass burning regions is likely to impact the sites with specific molecular markers The concentrations of all species were variable and dependent of seasonal changes In the most dry and polluted seasons, n-alkane and canon total concentrations were similar between the megacity and the biomass burning site PAHs and inorganic ion abundances were higher at Sao Paulo than Piracicaba, yet, the site influenced by biomass burning seems lobe the most impacted by the organic anion abundance in the atmosphere Pristane and phytane confirm the contamination by petroleum residues at urban sites, at the MAT site, biological activity and long range transport of pollutants might influence the levels of pristane (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Padronização e flexibilidade: proposta de um edifício tipo para uma escola técnica profissionalizante

Nowadays the acquisition of sustainable elements and concepts in construction has been increasingly discussed, improved and incorporated to buildings, since the sector directly interferes in the urban space and environment, representing environmental impact. In order to make a sustainable building (Green Building) it is vital to incorporate less damaging constructive practice, starting from the project until the operation of the enterprise, that means to consider an integrated process of conception, implementation, construction and operation. The more effective sustainable principles participation in architecture happens at the projecting step through minimal environment impact solutions. Among the issues varieties that goes with sustainability proposal of the buildings project, there were added to this work the elements that are directly attached to bioclimatic architecture, more specifically the climate variation, ventilation, lighting and sunlight, that directly affect the project conception. It is important to put in evidence that architecture role goes far beyond the simple activity of building spaces; it is the sequence of political, economic, social and cultural elements, having the users as the main apparatus to its materialization. Thereby this professional dissertation consists of an architecture draft for a professional and technological school in the Rio Grande do Norte State, this dissertation is based on the analysis of previous experience and the bioclimatic principles that implicate in building on hot and dry, hot and humid climates, and the use of strategic solutions that aim the optimization of natural light and ventilation

Antimicrobial resistance of heterotrophic marine bacteria isolated from seawater and sands of recreational beaches with different organic pollution levels in southeastern Brazil: evidences of resistance dissemination

Antimicrobial resistance of marine heterotrophic bacteria to different antimicrobials agents were evaluated in seawater, dry and wet sands from three marine recreational beaches with different pollution levels. In all studied beaches, the greatest frequencies of resistance were found in relation to penicillin. on Gonzaguinha, the most polluted beach, 72.3% of all isolated strains showed simple resistance, whilst 8.33% had multiple resistance. The values found on Ilha Porchat beach, were 70.8% and 6.9% for simple and multiple resistances, respectively. on GuaraA(0), the less polluted beach, only 35.3% of isolated strains had simple resistance. Multiple resistance was not observed. While samples from Gonzaguinha and Ilha Porchat beach showed isolated strains resistant to seven and six different antimicrobial agents, respectively, samples from GuaraA(0) beach were resistant only to penicillin and erytromicin. The positive correlations obtained between the degree of seawater contamination and frequency and variability of bacterial resistance indicate that polluted marine recreational waters and sands are sources of resistant bacteria contributing thus, to the dissemination of bacterial resistance.

CABBAGE GROWTH and PRODUCTION IN RELATION TO PLANT DENSITY and NITROGEN

At present, the Brazilian market prefers cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata) of smaller size, which can be achieved by increasing population density; yet this management can alter the optimum rate of nitrogen (N), its second most required nutrient. This study was conducted in the Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil, from February to June 2004. The objective was to evaluate the effect of population density: 31 250 (DI) and 46 875 plants ha(-1) (D2) with 0, 100, 200 and 300 kg N ha-1 on the growth and production of cabbage Astrus. The experimental design consisted of randomized blocks with a 2 x 4 factorial arrangement and three replicates. Statistical analysis were a variance analysis (F test), the Tukey test for population density averages and polynomial regression for the N rates. In D1, an increase was recorded in the number of inner and outer leaves, dry matter of inner and outer leaves, the stem diameter at the insertion of the head, and the stem dry and fresh matter. The maximum size of the plant in D2 was 1.57 kg and was obtained with 300 kg N ha(-1), while in D1 it was 2.1 kg and was obtained with 244 kg N ha(-1). The optimal economic rate in 131 was 227.1 kg N ha(-1). The highest yield (72.7 t ha(-1)) was obtained with the highest N rate in D2. Smaller cabbage heads, commercially preferred, were obtained without the application of N, regardless of plant population.