An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Distributed leadership and professional learning communities

This paper focuses on understanding distributed leadership and professional learning communities (PLCs). Through an Australian Government grant, the Teacher Education Done Differently (TEDD) project, data were analysed from 25 school executives about distributed leadership as a potential for influencing educational change through forums such as PLCs. Findings will be discussed in relation to: (1) Understanding the nature of a PLC, (2) Leadership within PLCs, (3) Advancing PLCs, and (4) PLCs as forums for capacity building a profession. A cyclic model for facilitating PLCs is presented, where information such as issues and problems are brought to the collective, discussed and analysed openly to provide further feedback. There are implications for leaders to up-skill staff on distributed leadership practices and further research required to determine which practices facilitate successful PLCs.

Optimal coordination of overcurrent relays in distribution systems with distributed generators based on differential evolution algorithm

Distributed generators (DGs) are defined as generators that are connected to a distribution network. The direction of the power flow and short-circuit current in a network could be changed compared with one without DGs. The conventional protective relay scheme does not meet the requirement in this emerging situation. As the number and capacity of DGs in the distribution network increase, the problem of coordinating protective relays becomes more challenging. Given this background, the protective relay coordination problem in distribution systems is investigated, with directional overcurrent relays taken as an example, and formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem. A mathematical model describing this problem is first developed, and the well-developed differential evolution algorithm is then used to solve it. Finally, a sample system is used to demonstrate the feasiblity and efficiency of the developed method.

Optimal sitting and sizing of distributed generators considering plug-in electric vehicles

Some uncertainties such as the stochastic input/output power of a plug-in electric vehicle due to its stochastic charging and discharging schedule, that of a wind unit and that of a photovoltaic generation source, volatile fuel prices and future uncertain load growth, all together could lead to some risks in determining the optimal siting and sizing of distributed generators (DGs) in distributed systems. Given this background, under the chance constrained programming (CCP) framework, a new method is presented to handle these uncertainties in the optimal sitting and sizing problem of DGs. First, a mathematical model of CCP is developed with the minimization of DGs investment cost, operational cost and maintenance cost as well as the network loss cost as the objective, security limitations as constraints, the sitting and sizing of DGs as optimization variables. Then, a Monte Carolo simulation embedded genetic algorithm approach is developed to solve the developed CCP model. Finally, the IEEE 37-node test feeder is employed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the developed model and method. This work is supported by an Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Project on Intelligent Grids Under the Energy Transformed Flagship, and Project from Jiangxi Power Company.

Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

Unusual scene detection using distributed behaviour model and sparse representation

The ability to detect unusual events in surviellance footage as they happen is a highly desireable feature for a surveillance system. However, this problem remains challenging in crowded scenes due to occlusions and the clustering of people. In this paper, we propose using the Distributed Behavior Model (DBM), which has been widely used in computer graphics, for video event detection. Our approach does not rely on object tracking, and is robust to camera movements. We use sparse coding for classification, and test our approach on various datasets. Our proposed approach outperforms a state-of-the-art work which uses the social force model and Latent Dirichlet Allocation.

Managing open incremental process innovation : absorptive capacity and distributed learning

In this conceptual article, we extend earlier work on Open Innovation and Absorptive Capacity. We suggest that the literature on Absorptive Capacity does not place sufficient emphasis on distributed knowledge and learning or on the application of innovative knowledge. To accomplish physical transformations, organisations need specific Innovative Capacities that extend beyond knowledge management. Accessive Capacity is the ability to collect, sort and analyse knowledge from both internal and external sources. Adaptive Capacity is needed to ensure that new pieces of equipment are suitable for the organisation's own purposes even though they may have been originally developed for other uses. Integrative Capacity makes it possible for a new or modified piece of equipment to be fitted into an existing production process with a minimum of inessential and expensive adjustment elsewhere in the process. These Innovative Capacities are controlled and coordinated by Innovative Management Capacity, a higher-order dynamic capability.

Intensity pulsations in distributed feedback Yb:Phosphate waveguide lasers

The intensity pulsations of a cw 1030 nm Yb:Phosphate monolithic waveguide laser with distributed feedback are described. We show that the pulsations could result from the coupling of the two orthogonal polarization modes through the two photon process of cooperative luminescence. The predictions of the presented theoretical model agree well with the observed behaviour.

Capping computation time and storage requirements for appearance-based localization with CAT-SLAM

Appearance-based localization is increasingly used for loop closure detection in metric SLAM systems. Since it relies only upon the appearance-based similarity between images from two locations, it can perform loop closure regardless of accumulated metric error. However, the computation time and memory requirements of current appearance-based methods scale linearly not only with the size of the environment but also with the operation time of the platform. These properties impose severe restrictions on longterm autonomy for mobile robots, as loop closure performance will inevitably degrade with increased operation time. We present a set of improvements to the appearance-based SLAM algorithm CAT-SLAM to constrain computation scaling and memory usage with minimal degradation in performance over time. The appearance-based comparison stage is accelerated by exploiting properties of the particle observation update, and nodes in the continuous trajectory map are removed according to minimal information loss criteria. We demonstrate constant time and space loop closure detection in a large urban environment with recall performance exceeding FAB-MAP by a factor of 3 at 100% precision, and investigate the minimum computational and memory requirements for maintaining mapping performance.

A parallel cooperative co-evolutionary genetic algorithm for the composite SaaS placement problem in Cloud computing

A composite SaaS (Software as a Service) is a software that is comprised of several software components and data components. The composite SaaS placement problem is to determine where each of the components should be deployed in a cloud computing environment such that the performance of the composite SaaS is optimal. From the computational point of view, the composite SaaS placement problem is a large-scale combinatorial optimization problem. Thus, an Iterative Cooperative Co-evolutionary Genetic Algorithm (ICCGA) was proposed. The ICCGA can find reasonable quality of solutions. However, its computation time is noticeably slow. Aiming at improving the computation time, we propose an unsynchronized Parallel Cooperative Co-evolutionary Genetic Algorithm (PCCGA) in this paper. Experimental results have shown that the PCCGA not only has quicker computation time, but also generates better quality of solutions than the ICCGA.

Excess power circulation in distribution networks containing distributed energy resources

The presence of large number of single-phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause severe power quality problems in distribution networks. The DERs can be installed in random locations. This may cause the generation in a particular phase exceeds the load demand in that phase. Therefore the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. To avoid this problem, the paper proposes the use of distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) that needs to be connected at the first bus following a substation. When operated properly, the DSTATCOM can facilitate a set of balanced current flow from the substation, even when excess power is generated by DERs. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

A penalty-based grouping genetic algorithm for multiple composite SaaS components clustering in Cloud

Software as a Service (SaaS) in Cloud is getting more and more significant among software users and providers recently. A SaaS that is delivered as composite application has many benefits including reduced delivery costs, flexible offers of the SaaS functions and decreased subscription cost for users. However, this approach has introduced a new problem in managing the resources allocated to the composite SaaS. The resource allocation that has been done at the initial stage may be overloaded or wasted due to the dynamic environment of a Cloud. A typical data center resource management usually triggers a placement reconfiguration for the SaaS in order to maintain its performance as well as to minimize the resource used. Existing approaches for this problem often ignore the underlying dependencies between SaaS components. In addition, the reconfiguration also has to comply with SaaS constraints in terms of its resource requirements, placement requirement as well as its SLA. To tackle the problem, this paper proposes a penalty-based Grouping Genetic Algorithm for multiple composite SaaS components clustering in Cloud. The main objective is to minimize the resource used by the SaaS by clustering its component without violating any constraint. Experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and the scalability of the proposed algorithm.