Offshoring and outsourcing under demand uncertainty -a supply chain management analysis

Outsourcing and offshoring or any combinations of these have not just become a popular phenomenon, but are viewed as one of the most important management strategies due to the new possibilities from globalization. They have been seen as a possibility to save costs and improve customer service. Executing offshoring and offshore outsourcing successfully can be more complex than initially expected. Potential cost savings resulting from of offshoring and offshore outsourcing are often based on lower manufacturing costs. However, these benefits might be conflicted by a more complex supply chain with service level challenges that can respectively increase costs. Therefore analyzing the total cost effects of offshoring and outsourcing is necessary. The aim of this Master´s Thesis was to to construct a total cost model using academic literature to calculate the total costs and analyze the reasonability of offshoring and offshore outsourcing production of a case company compared to insourcing production. The research data was mainly quantitative and collected mainly from the case company past sales and production records. In addition management level interviews from the case company were conducted. The information from these interviews was used for the qualification of the necessary quantitative data and adding supportive information that could not be gathered from the quantitative data. Both data collection and analysis were guided by a theoretical frame of reference that was based on academic literature concerning offshoring and outsourcing, statistical calculation of demand and total costs. The results confirm the theories that offshoring and offshore outsourcing would reduce total costs as both offshoring and offshore outsourcing options result in lower total annual costs than insourcing mainly due to lower manufacturing costs. However, increased demand uncertainty would make the alternative of offshore outsourcing more risky and difficult to manage. Therefore when assessing the overall impact of the alternatives, offshoring is the most preferable option. As the main cost savings in offshore outsourcing came from lower manufacturing costs, more specifically labour costs, the logistics costs in this case company did not have an essential effect in total costs. The management should therefore pay attention initially to manufacturing costs and then logistics costs when choosing the best production sourcing option for the company.

Ambiguity on the insurer's side: the demand for insurance

Empirical evidence suggests that ambiguity is prevalent in insurance pricing and underwriting, and that often insurers tend to exhibit more ambiguity than the insured individuals (e.g., [23]). Motivated by these findings, we consider a problem of demand for insurance indemnity schedules, where the insurer has ambiguous beliefs about the realizations of the insurable loss, whereas the insured is an expected-utility maximizer. We show that if the ambiguous beliefs of the insurer satisfy a property of compatibility with the non-ambiguous beliefs of the insured, then there exist optimal monotonic indemnity schedules. By virtue of monotonicity, no ex-post moral hazard issues arise at our solutions (e.g., [25]). In addition, in the case where the insurer is either ambiguity-seeking or ambiguity-averse, we show that the problem of determining the optimal indemnity schedule reduces to that of solving an auxiliary problem that is simpler than the original one in that it does not involve ambiguity. Finally, under additional assumptions, we give an explicit characterization of the optimal indemnity schedule for the insured, and we show how our results naturally extend the classical result of Arrow [5] on the optimality of the deductible indemnity schedule.

Ambiguity on the insurer's side: the demand for insurance

Empirical evidence suggests that ambiguity is prevalent in insurance pricing and underwriting, and that often insurers tend to exhibit more ambiguity than the insured individuals (e.g., [23]). Motivated by these findings, we consider a problem of demand for insurance indemnity schedules, where the insurer has ambiguous beliefs about the realizations of the insurable loss, whereas the insured is an expected-utility maximizer. We show that if the ambiguous beliefs of the insurer satisfy a property of compatibility with the non-ambiguous beliefs of the insured, then there exist optimal monotonic indemnity schedules. By virtue of monotonicity, no ex-post moral hazard issues arise at our solutions (e.g., [25]). In addition, in the case where the insurer is either ambiguity-seeking or ambiguity-averse, we show that the problem of determining the optimal indemnity schedule reduces to that of solving an auxiliary problem that is simpler than the original one in that it does not involve ambiguity. Finally, under additional assumptions, we give an explicit characterization of the optimal indemnity schedule for the insured, and we show how our results naturally extend the classical result of Arrow [5] on the optimality of the deductible indemnity schedule.

Profiling management for personalised multimedia delivery on-demand within the AXMEDIS framework

Media content distribution on-demand becomes more complex when performed on a mass scale involving various channels with distinct and dynamic network characteristics, and, deploying a variety of terminal devices offering a wide range of capabilities. It is practically impossible to create and prepackage various static versions of the same content to match all the varying demand parameters of clients for various contexts. In this paper we present a profiling management approach for dynamically personalised media content delivery on-demand integrated with the AXMEDIS Framework. The client profiles comprise the representation of User, Device, Network and Context of content delivery based on MPEG-21:DIA. Although the most challenging proving ground for this personalised content delivery has been the mobile testbed i.e. the distribution to mobile handsets, the framework described here can be deployed for disribution, by the AXMEDIS PnP module, through other channels e.g. satellite, Internet to a range of client terminals e.g. desktops, kiosks, IPtv and other terrminals whose baseline terminal capabilities can be made availabe by the manufacturers as is normal.

A design for business intelligence service in demand driven supply chain management

This paper discusses the problems inherent within traditional supply chain management's forecast and inventory management processes arising when tackling demand driven supply chain. A demand driven supply chain management architecture developed by Orchestr8 Ltd., U.K. is described to demonstrate its advantages over traditional supply chain management. Within this architecture, a metrics reporting system is designed by adopting business intelligence technology that supports users for decision making and planning supply activities over supply chain health.

Optimized Water Demand Management Through Intelligent Sensing And Analytics: The WISDOM Approach

New business and technology platforms are required to sustainably manage urban water resources [1,2]. However, any proposed solutions must be cognisant of security, privacy and other factors that may inhibit adoption and hence impact. The FP7 WISDOM project (funded by the European Commission - GA 619795) aims to achieve a step change in water and energy savings via the integration of innovative Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) frameworks to optimize water distribution networks and to enable change in consumer behavior through innovative demand management and adaptive pricing schemes [1,2,3]. The WISDOM concept centres on the integration of water distribution, sensor monitoring and communication systems coupled with semantic modelling (using ontologies, potentially connected to BIM, to serve as intelligent linkages throughout the entire framework) and control capabilities to provide for near real-time management of urban water resources. Fundamental to this framework are the needs and operational requirements of users and stakeholders at domestic, corporate and city levels and this requires the interoperability of a number of demand and operational models, fed with data from diverse sources such as sensor networks and crowsourced information. This has implications regarding the provenance and trustworthiness of such data and how it can be used in not only the understanding of system and user behaviours, but more importantly in the real-time control of such systems. Adaptive and intelligent analytics will be used to produce decision support systems that will drive the ability to increase the variability of both supply and consumption [3]. This in turn paves the way for adaptive pricing incentives and a greater understanding of the water-energy nexus. This integration is complex and uncertain yet being typical of a cyber-physical system, and its relevance transcends the water resource management domain. The WISDOM framework will be modeled and simulated with initial testing at an experimental facility in France (AQUASIM – a full-scale test-bed facility to study sustainable water management), then deployed and evaluated in in two pilots in Cardiff (UK) and La Spezia (Italy). These demonstrators will evaluate the integrated concept providing insight for wider adoption.

The human side of project management - an investigation of critical chain concepts in the Argentinean Project Environment

The global marketplace is rapidly intensifying. Longer product sales lives, greater profit margins or simply survival, is dependent on management¿s ability to create and lead change. Project Management has become an important competency, combined with other business practices to adapt to the trend of changing conditions. Critical Chain is a relatively new project methodology, elaborated by Eliyahu Goldratt in order to complete projects faster, make more efficient use of resources and securing the project deliverables. The methodology is based on the assumption that traditional project techniques such as CPM and PERT, do not recognize critical human behavior. The methodology claims that many project failures are a direct result of how safety is built into the task delivery times, and then wasted by human behavior such as Student Syndrome, Parkinson Law and Multitasking. However, there has been little or no previous research regarding this topic in the Argentine marketplace. This study intended to investigate to what extent the human behavior concepts of critical chain project management are present, by performing in-depth interviews with Argentine project stakeholders. It appears that the four human behavior concepts are present in Argentina and that the majority of Argentine companies are yet to apply project management techniques.

Nitrogen management in maize cover crop rotations

Winter cover crops can affect N nutrition of the following maize crop. Although legumes have been recommend for maize rotations, in tropical areas grasses may be more interesting because they provide a longer protection of soil surface. Legumes can add N to the system and grasses can compete with maize for the available nutrient. An experiment was conducted in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil, to study N dynamics in the soil surface straw-maize system as affected by N fertilization management and species included in the no-till rotation. Treatments were fallow, black oat (Avena strigosa), pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum), white lupins (Lupinus albus), black oat fertilized with N. and pearl millet fertilized with N. Maize was grown afterwards in the same plots, receiving 0.0, 60.0 and 120.0 kg ha(-1) of N sidedressed 30 days after plant emergence. Soil, straw and maize samples were taken periodically. The highest corn yields were observed when it was cropped after pearl millet fertilized with N. Nitrogen side dressed application up to 120 kg ha(-1) was not able to avoid corn yield decrease caused by black oat. Grasses can be recommended in maize rotations in tropical areas, provided they receive nitrogen fertilizer and show no allelopathy. Due to its higher ON ratio and dry matter yield they are better than legumes, protecting the soil surface for a longer period. Pearl millet is particularly interesting because it enhances N use efficiency by the following maize crop. For a better N availability/demand synchronism, the cover crops should be desiccated right before maize planting.

Hepatitis C infection: challenges in dental management and diagnosis of extrahepatic manifestations

Hepatitis C is associated with autoimmune diseases, hepatocellular carcinoma,and extrahepatic manifestations that, in conjunction, may seriously compromise the patient's quality of life. We herein describe a case of chronic hepatitis C with oral manifestations and discuss some implications for diagnosis and treatment. A 63-year-old woman complaining of spontaneous bleeding of the oral mucosa presented with bilateral asymmetric ulcers surrounded by white papules and striae on the buccal mucosa. Her medical history revealed leucopenia, thrombocytopenia, and skin lesions associated with chronic hepatitis C. Propranolol and ranitidine had recently been prescribed. Lichen planus, lichenoid reaction, and erythema multiforme were considered in the differential diagnosis. Histopathological analysis revealed lymphocytic infiltrate in a lichenoid pattern. The lesions partially healed after 1 week and completely regressed after 6 months, despite the maintenance of all medications; no recurrence was observed. The final diagnosis was oral lichen planus associated with hepatitis C. Chronic hepatitis C may present oral manifestations, which demand adjustments in dental treatment planning. Medication side effects may interfere with the clinical presentation and course of the disease and should be accounted for in the differential diagnosis. The possibility of spontaneous remission of oral lichen planus should always be considered, especially when putative etiological factors of a lichenoid lesion are withdrawn in an attempt to differentiate oral lichen planus from lichenoid lesions. This case emphasizes the importance of recognizing the extrahepatic manifestations of hepatitis C as a cause of increased morbidity.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Traffic mitigation and demand management: summary of national experience and potential applications in New York. Final report.

New York - New Jersey Port Authority, New York

An assessment of travel demand management approaches at suburban activity centers. Final report.

Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Mass.

Implementing effective travel demand management measures: inventory of measures and synthesis of experience. Final report.

Transportation Department, Washington, D.C.