DATA DRIVEN INTELLIGENT AGENT NETWORKS FOR ADAPTIVE MONITORING AND CONTROL

To analyze the characteristics and predict the dynamic behaviors of complex systems over time, comprehensive research to enable the development of systems that can intelligently adapt to the evolving conditions and infer new knowledge with algorithms that are not predesigned is crucially needed. This dissertation research studies the integration of the techniques and methodologies resulted from the fields of pattern recognition, intelligent agents, artificial immune systems, and distributed computing platforms, to create technologies that can more accurately describe and control the dynamics of real-world complex systems. The need for such technologies is emerging in manufacturing, transportation, hazard mitigation, weather and climate prediction, homeland security, and emergency response. Motivated by the ability of mobile agents to dynamically incorporate additional computational and control algorithms into executing applications, mobile agent technology is employed in this research for the adaptive sensing and monitoring in a wireless sensor network. Mobile agents are software components that can travel from one computing platform to another in a network and carry programs and data states that are needed for performing the assigned tasks. To support the generation, migration, communication, and management of mobile monitoring agents, an embeddable mobile agent system (Mobile-C) is integrated with sensor nodes. Mobile monitoring agents visit distributed sensor nodes, read real-time sensor data, and perform anomaly detection using the equipped pattern recognition algorithms. The optimal control of agents is achieved by mimicking the adaptive immune response and the application of multi-objective optimization algorithms. The mobile agent approach provides potential to reduce the communication load and energy consumption in monitoring networks. The major research work of this dissertation project includes: (1) studying effective feature extraction methods for time series measurement data; (2) investigating the impact of the feature extraction methods and dissimilarity measures on the performance of pattern recognition; (3) researching the effects of environmental factors on the performance of pattern recognition; (4) integrating an embeddable mobile agent system with wireless sensor nodes; (5) optimizing agent generation and distribution using artificial immune system concept and multi-objective algorithms; (6) applying mobile agent technology and pattern recognition algorithms for adaptive structural health monitoring and driving cycle pattern recognition; (7) developing a web-based monitoring network to enable the visualization and analysis of real-time sensor data remotely. Techniques and algorithms developed in this dissertation project will contribute to research advances in networked distributed systems operating under changing environments.

Learning data-driven models of non-verbal behaviors for building rapport using an intelligent virtual agent

There is a growing societal need to address the increasing prevalence of behavioral health issues, such as obesity, alcohol or drug use, and general lack of treatment adherence for a variety of health problems. The statistics, worldwide and in the USA, are daunting. Excessive alcohol use is the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States (with 79,000 deaths annually), and is responsible for a wide range of health and social problems. On the positive side though, these behavioral health issues (and associated possible diseases) can often be prevented with relatively simple lifestyle changes, such as losing weight with a diet and/or physical exercise, or learning how to reduce alcohol consumption. Medicine has therefore started to move toward finding ways of preventively promoting wellness, rather than solely treating already established illness.^ Evidence-based patient-centered Brief Motivational Interviewing (BMI) interventions have been found particularly effective in helping people find intrinsic motivation to change problem behaviors after short counseling sessions, and to maintain healthy lifestyles over the long-term. Lack of locally available personnel well-trained in BMI, however, often limits access to successful interventions for people in need. To fill this accessibility gap, Computer-Based Interventions (CBIs) have started to emerge. Success of the CBIs, however, critically relies on insuring engagement and retention of CBI users so that they remain motivated to use these systems and come back to use them over the long term as necessary.^ Because of their text-only interfaces, current CBIs can therefore only express limited empathy and rapport, which are the most important factors of health interventions. Fortunately, in the last decade, computer science research has progressed in the design of simulated human characters with anthropomorphic communicative abilities. Virtual characters interact using humans’ innate communication modalities, such as facial expressions, body language, speech, and natural language understanding. By advancing research in Artificial Intelligence (AI), we can improve the ability of artificial agents to help us solve CBI problems.^ To facilitate successful communication and social interaction between artificial agents and human partners, it is essential that aspects of human social behavior, especially empathy and rapport, be considered when designing human-computer interfaces. Hence, the goal of the present dissertation is to provide a computational model of rapport to enhance an artificial agent’s social behavior, and to provide an experimental tool for the psychological theories shaping the model. Parts of this thesis were already published in [LYL+12, AYL12, AL13, ALYR13, LAYR13, YALR13, ALY14].^

Identification of deep water lantern sharks (Chondrichthyes : Etmopteridae) using morphometric data and multivariate analysis

Taxonomic distinction to species level of deep water sharks is complex and often impossible to achieve during fisheries-related studies. The species of the genus Etmopterus are particularly difficult to identify, so they often appear without species assignation as Etmopetrus sp. or spp. in studies, even those focusing on elasmobranchs. During this work, the morphometric traits of two species of Etmopterus, E. spinax and E. pusillus were studied using 27 different morphological measurements, relatively easy to obtain even in the field. These measurements were processed with multivariate analysis in order to find out the most important ones likely to separate the two species. Sexual dimorphism was also assessed using the same techniques, and it was found that it does not occur in these species. The two Etmopterus species presented in this study share the same habitats in the overlapping ranges of distribution and are caught together on the outer shelves and slopes of the north-eastern Atlantic.

Data-stream driven Fuzzy-granular approaches for system maintenance

Intelligent systems are currently inherent to the society, supporting a synergistic human-machine collaboration. Beyond economical and climate factors, energy consumption is strongly affected by the performance of computing systems. The quality of software functioning may invalidate any improvement attempt. In addition, data-driven machine learning algorithms are the basis for human-centered applications, being their interpretability one of the most important features of computational systems. Software maintenance is a critical discipline to support automatic and life-long system operation. As most software registers its inner events by means of logs, log analysis is an approach to keep system operation. Logs are characterized as Big data assembled in large-flow streams, being unstructured, heterogeneous, imprecise, and uncertain. This thesis addresses fuzzy and neuro-granular methods to provide maintenance solutions applied to anomaly detection (AD) and log parsing (LP), dealing with data uncertainty, identifying ideal time periods for detailed software analyses. LP provides deeper semantics interpretation of the anomalous occurrences. The solutions evolve over time and are general-purpose, being highly applicable, scalable, and maintainable. Granular classification models, namely, Fuzzy set-Based evolving Model (FBeM), evolving Granular Neural Network (eGNN), and evolving Gaussian Fuzzy Classifier (eGFC), are compared considering the AD problem. The evolving Log Parsing (eLP) method is proposed to approach the automatic parsing applied to system logs. All the methods perform recursive mechanisms to create, update, merge, and delete information granules according with the data behavior. For the first time in the evolving intelligent systems literature, the proposed method, eLP, is able to process streams of words and sentences. Essentially, regarding to AD accuracy, FBeM achieved (85.64+-3.69)%; eGNN reached (96.17+-0.78)%; eGFC obtained (92.48+-1.21)%; and eLP reached (96.05+-1.04)%. Besides being competitive, eLP particularly generates a log grammar, and presents a higher level of model interpretability.

Data-driven and data-oriented methods for materials science and technologies

The discovery of new materials and their functions has always been a fundamental component of technological progress. Nowadays, the quest for new materials is stronger than ever: sustainability, medicine, robotics and electronics are all key assets which depend on the ability to create specifically tailored materials. However, designing materials with desired properties is a difficult task, and the complexity of the discipline makes it difficult to identify general criteria. While scientists developed a set of best practices (often based on experience and expertise), this is still a trial-and-error process. This becomes even more complex when dealing with advanced functional materials. Their properties depend on structural and morphological features, which in turn depend on fabrication procedures and environment, and subtle alterations leads to dramatically different results. Because of this, materials modeling and design is one of the most prolific research fields. Many techniques and instruments are continuously developed to enable new possibilities, both in the experimental and computational realms. Scientists strive to enforce cutting-edge technologies in order to make progress. However, the field is strongly affected by unorganized file management, proliferation of custom data formats and storage procedures, both in experimental and computational research. Results are difficult to find, interpret and re-use, and a huge amount of time is spent interpreting and re-organizing data. This also strongly limit the application of data-driven and machine learning techniques. This work introduces possible solutions to the problems described above. Specifically, it talks about developing features for specific classes of advanced materials and use them to train machine learning models and accelerate computational predictions for molecular compounds; developing method for organizing non homogeneous materials data; automate the process of using devices simulations to train machine learning models; dealing with scattered experimental data and use them to discover new patterns.

Data driven regularization models of non-linear ill-posed inverse problems in imaging

Imaging technologies are widely used in application fields such as natural sciences, engineering, medicine, and life sciences. A broad class of imaging problems reduces to solve ill-posed inverse problems (IPs). Traditional strategies to solve these ill-posed IPs rely on variational regularization methods, which are based on minimization of suitable energies, and make use of knowledge about the image formation model (forward operator) and prior knowledge on the solution, but lack in incorporating knowledge directly from data. On the other hand, the more recent learned approaches can easily learn the intricate statistics of images depending on a large set of data, but do not have a systematic method for incorporating prior knowledge about the image formation model. The main purpose of this thesis is to discuss data-driven image reconstruction methods which combine the benefits of these two different reconstruction strategies for the solution of highly nonlinear ill-posed inverse problems. Mathematical formulation and numerical approaches for image IPs, including linear as well as strongly nonlinear problems are described. More specifically we address the Electrical impedance Tomography (EIT) reconstruction problem by unrolling the regularized Gauss-Newton method and integrating the regularization learned by a data-adaptive neural network. Furthermore we investigate the solution of non-linear ill-posed IPs introducing a deep-PnP framework that integrates the graph convolutional denoiser into the proximal Gauss-Newton method with a practical application to the EIT, a recently introduced promising imaging technique. Efficient algorithms are then applied to the solution of the limited electrods problem in EIT, combining compressive sensing techniques and deep learning strategies. Finally, a transformer-based neural network architecture is adapted to restore the noisy solution of the Computed Tomography problem recovered using the filtered back-projection method.

Data-driven multivariate flood hazard modeling

The present Dissertation shows how recent statistical analysis tools and open datasets can be exploited to improve modelling accuracy in two distinct yet interconnected domains of flood hazard (FH) assessment. In the first Part, unsupervised artificial neural networks are employed as regional models for sub-daily rainfall extremes. The models aim to learn a robust relation to estimate locally the parameters of Gumbel distributions of extreme rainfall depths for any sub-daily duration (1-24h). The predictions depend on twenty morphoclimatic descriptors. A large study area in north-central Italy is adopted, where 2238 annual maximum series are available. Validation is performed over an independent set of 100 gauges. Our results show that multivariate ANNs may remarkably improve the estimation of percentiles relative to the benchmark approach from the literature, where Gumbel parameters depend on mean annual precipitation. Finally, we show that the very nature of the proposed ANN models makes them suitable for interpolating predicted sub-daily rainfall quantiles across space and time-aggregation intervals. In the second Part, decision trees are used to combine a selected blend of input geomorphic descriptors for predicting FH. Relative to existing DEM-based approaches, this method is innovative, as it relies on the combination of three characteristics: (1) simple multivariate models, (2) a set of exclusively DEM-based descriptors as input, and (3) an existing FH map as reference information. First, the methods are applied to northern Italy, represented with the MERIT DEM (∼90m resolution), and second, to the whole of Italy, represented with the EU-DEM (25m resolution). The results show that multivariate approaches may (a) significantly enhance flood-prone areas delineation relative to a selected univariate one, (b) provide accurate predictions of expected inundation depths, (c) produce encouraging results in extrapolation, (d) complete the information of imperfect reference maps, and (e) conveniently convert binary maps into continuous representation of FH.

Data-driven Signal Processing per Jamming Detection in Sistemi Satellitari

In questo elaborato vengono analizzate differenti tecniche per la detection di jammer attivi e costanti in una comunicazione satellitare in uplink. Osservando un numero limitato di campioni ricevuti si vuole identificare la presenza di un jammer. A tal fine sono stati implementati i seguenti classificatori binari: support vector machine (SVM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), spectrum guarding e autoencoder. Questi algoritmi di apprendimento automatico dipendono dalle features che ricevono in ingresso, per questo motivo è stata posta particolare attenzione alla loro scelta. A tal fine, sono state confrontate le accuratezze ottenute dai detector addestrati utilizzando differenti tipologie di informazione come: i segnali grezzi nel tempo, le statistical features, le trasformate wavelet e lo spettro ciclico. I pattern prodotti dall’estrazione di queste features dai segnali satellitari possono avere dimensioni elevate, quindi, prima della detection, vengono utilizzati i seguenti algoritmi per la riduzione della dimensionalità: principal component analysis (PCA) e linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Lo scopo di tale processo non è quello di eliminare le features meno rilevanti, ma combinarle in modo da preservare al massimo l’informazione, evitando problemi di overfitting e underfitting. Le simulazioni numeriche effettuate hanno evidenziato come lo spettro ciclico sia in grado di fornire le features migliori per la detection producendo però pattern di dimensioni elevate, per questo motivo è stato necessario l’utilizzo di algoritmi di riduzione della dimensionalità. In particolare, l'algoritmo PCA è stato in grado di estrarre delle informazioni migliori rispetto a LDA, le cui accuratezze risentivano troppo del tipo di jammer utilizzato nella fase di addestramento. Infine, l’algoritmo che ha fornito le prestazioni migliori è stato il Multilayer Perceptron che ha richiesto tempi di addestramento contenuti e dei valori di accuratezza elevati.

Inflammation markers in healthy and periodontitis patients: a preliminary data screening

Advances in diagnostic research are moving towards methods whereby the periodontal risk can be identified and quantified by objective measures using biomarkers. Patients with periodontitis may have elevated circulating levels of specific inflammatory markers that can be correlated to the severity of the disease. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether differences in the serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers are differentially expressed in healthy and periodontitis patients. Twenty-five patients (8 healthy patients and 17 chronic periodontitis patients) were enrolled in the study. A 15 mL blood sample was used for identification of the inflammatory markers, with a human inflammatory flow cytometry multiplex assay. Among 24 assessed cytokines, only 3 (RANTES, MIG and Eotaxin) were statistically different between groups (p<0.05). In conclusion, some of the selected markers of inflammation are differentially expressed in healthy and periodontitis patients. Cytokine profile analysis may be further explored to distinguish the periodontitis patients from the ones free of disease and also to be used as a measure of risk. The present data, however, are limited and larger sample size studies are required to validate the findings of the specific biomarkers.

Calibration of the dietary data obtained from the Brazilian center of the Natural History of HPV Infection in Men study: the HIM Study

The objective of this study was to estimate the regressions calibration for the dietary data that were measured using the quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) in the Natural History of HPV Infection in Men: the HIM Study in Brazil. A sample of 98 individuals from the HIM study answered one QFFQ and three 24-hour recalls (24HR) at interviews. The calibration was performed using linear regression analysis in which the 24HR was the dependent variable and the QFFQ was the independent variable. Age, body mass index, physical activity, income and schooling were used as adjustment variables in the models. The geometric means between the 24HR and the calibration-corrected QFFQ were statistically equal. The dispersion graphs between the instruments demonstrate increased correlation after making the correction, although there is greater dispersion of the points with worse explanatory power of the models. Identification of the regressions calibration for the dietary data of the HIM study will make it possible to estimate the effect of the diet on HPV infection, corrected for the measurement error of the QFFQ.

Data collapse, scaling functions, and analytical solutions of generalized growth models

We consider a nontrivial one-species population dynamics model with finite and infinite carrying capacities. Time-dependent intrinsic and extrinsic growth rates are considered in these models. Through the model per capita growth rate we obtain a heuristic general procedure to generate scaling functions to collapse data into a simple linear behavior even if an extrinsic growth rate is included. With this data collapse, all the models studied become independent from the parameters and initial condition. Analytical solutions are found when time-dependent coefficients are considered. These solutions allow us to perceive nontrivial transitions between species extinction and survival and to calculate the transition's critical exponents. Considering an extrinsic growth rate as a cancer treatment, we show that the relevant quantity depends not only on the intensity of the treatment, but also on when the cancerous cell growth is maximum.

Work disability remains a major problem in rheumatoid arthritis in the 2000s: data from 32 countries in the QUEST-RA Study

Introduction: Work disability is a major consequence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), associated not only with traditional disease activity variables, but also more significantly with demographic, functional, occupational, and societal variables. Recent reports suggest that the use of biologic agents offers potential for reduced work disability rates, but the conclusions are based on surrogate disease activity measures derived from studies primarily from Western countries. Methods: The Quantitative Standard Monitoring of Patients with RA (QUEST-RA) multinational database of 8,039 patients in 86 sites in 32 countries, 16 with high gross domestic product (GDP) (>24K US dollars (USD) per capita) and 16 low-GDP countries (<11K USD), was analyzed for work and disability status at onset and over the course of RA and clinical status of patients who continued working or had stopped working in high-GDP versus low-GDP countries according to all RA Core Data Set measures. Associations of work disability status with RA Core Data Set variables and indices were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analyses. Results: At the time of first symptoms, 86% of men (range 57%-100% among countries) and 64% (19%-87%) of women <65 years were working. More than one third (37%) of these patients reported subsequent work disability because of RA. Among 1,756 patients whose symptoms had begun during the 2000s, the probabilities of continuing to work were 80% (95% confidence interval (CI) 78%-82%) at 2 years and 68% (95% CI 65%-71%) at 5 years, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. Patients who continued working versus stopped working had significantly better clinical status for all clinical status measures and patient self-report scores, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. However, patients who had stopped working in high-GDP countries had better clinical status than patients who continued working in low-GDP countries. The most significant identifier of work disability in all subgroups was Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) functional disability score. Conclusions: Work disability rates remain high among people with RA during this millennium. In low-GDP countries, people remain working with high levels of disability and disease activity. Cultural and economic differences between societies affect work disability as an outcome measure for RA.

Novel Primate-Specific Genes, RMEL 1, 2 and 3, with Highly Restricted Expression in Melanoma, Assessed by New Data Mining Tool

Melanoma is a highly aggressive and therapy resistant tumor for which the identification of specific markers and therapeutic targets is highly desirable. We describe here the development and use of a bioinformatic pipeline tool, made publicly available under the name of EST2TSE, for the in silico detection of candidate genes with tissue-specific expression. Using this tool we mined the human EST (Expressed Sequence Tag) database for sequences derived exclusively from melanoma. We found 29 UniGene clusters of multiple ESTs with the potential to predict novel genes with melanoma-specific expression. Using a diverse panel of human tissues and cell lines, we validated the expression of a subset of three previously uncharacterized genes (clusters Hs.295012, Hs.518391, and Hs.559350) to be highly restricted to melanoma/melanocytes and named them RMEL1, 2 and 3, respectively. Expression analysis in nevi, primary melanomas, and metastatic melanomas revealed RMEL1 as a novel melanocytic lineage-specific gene up-regulated during melanoma development. RMEL2 expression was restricted to melanoma tissues and glioblastoma. RMEL3 showed strong up-regulation in nevi and was lost in metastatic tumors. Interestingly, we found correlations of RMEL2 and RMEL3 expression with improved patient outcome, suggesting tumor and/or metastasis suppressor functions for these genes. The three genes are composed of multiple exons and map to 2q12.2, 1q25.3, and 5q11.2, respectively. They are well conserved throughout primates, but not other genomes, and were predicted as having no coding potential, although primate-conserved and human-specific short ORFs could be found. Hairpin RNA secondary structures were also predicted. Concluding, this work offers new melanoma-specific genes for future validation as prognostic markers or as targets for the development of therapeutic strategies to treat melanoma.

DESCRIPTION OF ADULTS AND NYMPH, AND REDESCRIPTION OF THE LARVA, OF ORNITHODOROS MARINKELLEI (ACARI: ARGASIDAE), WITH DATA ON ITS PHYLOGENETIC POSITION

The argasid tick Ornithodoros marinkellei Kohls, Clifford, and Jones, 1969 was described 4 decades ago based on larval specimens collected from bats (Pteronotus spp.) in Colombia and Panama. Thereafter, larval O. marinkellei parasitizing bats were reported from Venezuela, Guyana, and Brazil. Herein, we describe the adults and nymph, and redescribe the larva of O. marinkellei based on specimens recently collected in the western Brazilian Amazon region. In contrast to all other known adult argasids, the idiosoma of both males and females of O. marinkellei is covered with sclerotized plaques. The idiosoma of the nymph of O. marinkellei is entirely micromamillated, and differs from the adults by the absence of plaques. The larva of O. marinkellei is morphologically similar to the larvae of the 2 other species belonging to the subgenus Subparmatus, i.e., Ornithodoros viguerasi Cooley and Kohls, 1941 and Ornithodoros mormoops Kohls, Clifford, and Jones, 1969. Because of the long and narrow dorsal plate, the larva of O. marinkellei is readily distinguished from O. viguerasi and O. mormoops. Comparison of our larvae from Brazil with O. marinkellei paratype specimens from Colombia confirmed their taxonomic identification. However, a few morphological differences, particularly in the size of the gnathosoma, were observed. Further studies are necessary to clarify whether O. marinkellei is a complex of different species, or a single species represented by morphologically polymorphic, and geographically distinct populations. Partial mitochondrial 16S rDNA gene sequences were generated for O. marinkellei specimens from Brazil, and compared with available homologous sequences in GenBank. Phylogenetic analyses revealed O. marinkellei to be distinct from the remaining argasid species available in GenBank, including other bat-associated tick species that are found in sympatry with O. marinkellei in the Neotropical region.

Fast ray-tracing algorithm for circumstellar structures (FRACS) II. Disc parameters of the B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874 from VLTI/MIDI data

Context. B[e] supergiants are luminous, massive post-main sequence stars exhibiting non-spherical winds, forbidden lines, and hot dust in a disc-like structure. The physical properties of their rich and complex circumstellar environment (CSE) are not well understood, partly because these CSE cannot be easily resolved at the large distances found for B[e] supergiants (typically greater than or similar to 1 kpc). Aims. From mid-IR spectro-interferometric observations obtained with VLTI/MIDI we seek to resolve and study the CSE of the Galactic B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874. Methods. For a physical interpretation of the observables (visibilities and spectrum) we use our ray-tracing radiative transfer code (FRACS), which is optimised for thermal spectro-interferometric observations. Results. Thanks to the short computing time required by FRACS (<10 s per monochromatic model), best-fit parameters and uncertainties for several physical quantities of CPD-57 degrees 2874 were obtained, such as inner dust radius, relative flux contribution of the central source and of the dusty CSE, dust temperature profile, and disc inclination. Conclusions. The analysis of VLTI/MIDI data with FRACS allowed one of the first direct determinations of physical parameters of the dusty CSE of a B[e] supergiant based on interferometric data and using a full model-fitting approach. In a larger context, the study of B[e] supergiants is important for a deeper understanding of the complex structure and evolution of hot, massive stars.