Structure optimization combining soft-core interaction functions, the diffusion equation method, and molecular dynamics

Smoothing the potential energy surface for structure optimization is a general and commonly applied strategy. We propose a combination of soft-core potential energy functions and a variation of the diffusion equation method to smooth potential energy surfaces, which is applicable to complex systems such as protein structures; The performance of the method was demonstrated by comparison with simulated annealing using the refinement of the undecapeptide Cyclosporin A as a test case. Simulations were repeated many times using different initial conditions and structures since the methods are heuristic and results are only meaningful in a statistical sense.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a hypothetical hepatitis C vaccine compared to antiviral therapy

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We assumed that a hypothetical vaccine, which cost was taken to be the initial cost of the vaccine against hepatitis B exists and it is introduced in the model. We computed its cost-effectiveness compared with the anti-HCV therapy. The calculated basic reproduction number was 1.20. The model predicts that without intervention a steady state exists with an HCV prevalence of 3%, in agreement with the Current epidemiological data. Starting from this steady state three interventions were simulated: indiscriminate vaccination, selective vaccination and anti-HCV therapy. Selective vaccination proved to be the strategy with the best cost-effectiveness ratio, followed by indiscriminate vaccination and anti-HCV therapy.

Consistency of FDG-PET Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness in Initial Staging of Patients With Hodgkin Lymphoma Across Jurisdictions

Introduction: Two hundred ten patients with newly diagnosed Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) were consecutively enrolled in this prospective trial to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fluorine-18 ((18)F)-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) scan in initial staging of patients with HL. Methods: All 210 patients were staged with conventional clinical staging (CCS) methods, including computed tomography (CT), bone marrow biopsy (BMB), and laboratory tests. Patients were also submitted to metabolic staging (MS) with whole-body FDG-PET scan before the beginning of treatment. A standard of reference for staging was determined with all staging procedures, histologic examination, and follow-up examinations. The accuracy of the CCS was compared with the MS. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for both strategies. Results: In the 210 patients with HL, the sensitivity for initial staging of FDG-PET was higher than that of CT and BMB in initial staging (97.9% vs. 87.3%; P < .001 and 94.2% vs. 71.4%, P < 0.003, respectively). The incorporation of FDG-PET in the staging procedure upstaged disease in 50 (24%) patients and downstaged disease in 17 (8%) patients. Changes in treatment would be seen in 32 (15%) patients. Cumulative cost for staging procedures was $3751/patient for CCS compared to $5081 for CCS + PET and $4588 for PET/CT. The ICER of PET/CT strategy was $16,215 per patient with modified treatment. PET/CT costs at the beginning and end of treatment would increase total costs of HL staging and first-line treatment by only 2%. Conclusion: FDG-PET is more accurate than CT and BMB in HL staging. Given observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost-effective in the public health care program in Brazil.

Cost Effectiveness of Positron Emission Tomography in Patients With Hodgkin`s Lymphoma in Unconfirmed Complete Remission or Partial Remission After First-Line Therapy

Purpose To assess the cost effectiveness of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in patients with Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) with unconfirmed complete remission (CRu) or partial remission (PR) after first-line treatment. Patients and Methods One hundred thirty patients with HL were prospectively studied. After treatment, all patients with CRu/PR were evaluated with FDG-PET. In addition, PET-negative patients were evaluated with standard follow-up, and PET-positive patients were evaluated with biopsies of the positive lesions. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Cost effectiveness was determined by evaluating projected annual economic impact of strategies without and with FDG-PET on HL management. Results After treatment, CRu/PR was observed in 50 (40.0%) of the 127 patients; the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of FDG-PET were 100%, 92.0%, 92.3%, and 100%, respectively (accuracy of 95.9%). Local restaging costs without PET were $350,050 compared with $283,262 with PET, a 19% decrease. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is -$3,268 to detect one true case. PET costs represented 1% of total costs of HL treatment. Simulated costs in the 974 patients registered in the 2008 Brazilian public health care database showed that the strategy including restaging PET would have a total program cost of $56,498,314, which is $516,942 less than without restaging PET, resulting in a 1% cost saving. Conclusion FDG-PET demonstrated 95.9% accuracy in restaging for patients with HL with CRu/PR after first-line therapy. Given the observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost effective and would reduce costs for the public health care program in Brazil.

Cost-Effectiveness of Palliation of Unresectable Esophageal Cancer

Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of routine rotavirus vaccination in Brazil

Objective. The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus vaccination program among children : 5 years of age in Brazil. Methods. Considering a hypothetical annual cohort of approximately 3 300 000 newborns followed over 5 years, a decision-tree model was constructed to examine the possible clinical and economic effects of rotavirus infection with and without routine vaccination of children. Probabilities and unit costs were derived from published research and national administrative data. The impact of different estimates for key parameters was studied using sensitivity analysis. The analysis was conducted from both healthcare system and societal perspectives. Results. The vaccination program was estimated to prevent approximately 1735 351 (54%) of the 3 210 361 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 703 (75%) of 933 rotavirus-associated deaths during the 5-year period. At a vaccine price of 18.6 Brazilian reais (R$) per dose, this program would cost R$121 673 966 and would save R$38 536 514 in direct costs to the public healthcare system and R$71 778 377 in direct and indirect costs to society. The program was estimated to cost R$1 028 and R$1 713 per life-years saved (LYS)from the societal and healthcare system perspectives, respectively. Conclusions. Universal rotavirus vaccination was a cost-effective strategy for both perspectives. However, these findings are highly sensitive to diarrhea incidence rate, proportion of severe cases, vaccine coverage, and vaccine price.

Right adolescent idiopathic thoracic curve (Lenke 1 A and B): does cost of instrumentation and implant density improve radiographic and cosmetic parameters?

In adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) there has been a shift towards increasing the number of implants and pedicle screws, which has not been proven to improve cosmetic correction. To evaluate if increasing cost of instrumentation correlates with cosmetic correction using clinical photographs. 58 Lenke 1A and B cases from a multicenter AIS database with at least 3 months follow-up of clinical photographs were used for analysis. Cosmetic parameters on PA and forward bending photographs included angular measurements of trunk shift, shoulder balance, rib hump, and ratio measurements of waist line asymmetry. Pre-op and follow-up X-rays were measured for coronal and sagittal deformity parameters. Cost density was calculated by dividing the total cost of instrumentation by the number of vertebrae being fused. Linear regression and spearman`s correlation were used to correlate cost density to X-ray and photo outcomes. Three independent observers verified radiographic and cosmetic parameters for inter/interobserver variability analysis. Average pre-op Cobb angle and instrumented correction were 54A degrees (SD 12.5) and 59% (SD 25) respectively. The average number of vertebrae fused was 10 (SD 1.9). The total cost of spinal instrumentation ranged from $6,769 to $21,274 (Mean $12,662, SD $3,858). There was a weak positive and statistically significant correlation between Cobb angle correction and cost density (r = 0.33, p = 0.01), and no correlation between Cobb angle correction of the uninstrumented lumbar spine and cost density (r = 0.15, p = 0.26). There was no significant correlation between all sagittal X-ray measurements or any of the photo parameters and cost density. There was good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability of all photographic parameters based on the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 0.74-0.98). Our method used to measure cosmesis had good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability, and may be an effective tool to objectively assess cosmesis from photographs. Since increasing cost density only improves mildly the Cobb angle correction of the main thoracic curve and not the correction of the uninstrumented spine or any of the cosmetic parameters, one should consider the cost of increasing implant density in Lenke 1A and B curves. In the area of rationalization of health care expenses, this study demonstrates that increasing the number of implants does not improve any relevant cosmetic or radiographic outcomes.

Some results on holomorphic generalized functions

In this note, we present three independent results within generalized complex analysis (in the Colombeau sense). The first of them deals with non-removable singularities; we construct a generalized function u on an open subset Omega of C(n), which is not a holomorphic generalized function on Omega but it is a holomorphic generalized function on Omega\S, where S is a hypersurface contained in Omega. The second result shows the existence of a holomorphic generalized function with prescribed values in the zero-set of a classical holomorphic function. The last result states the existence of a compactly supported solution to the (partial derivative) over bar operator.

Covariance functions for body weight from birth to maturity in Nellore cows

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models on Legendre polynomials for the analysis of repeated measures of BW from birth to adult age. A total of 82,064 records from 8,145 females were analyzed. Different models were compared. The models included additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random terms. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of animal age (cubic regression) were considered as random co-variables. Eight models with polynomials of third to sixth order were used to describe additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. Residual effects were modeled using 1 (i.e., assuming homogeneity of variances across all ages) or 5 age classes. The model with 5 classes was the best to describe the trajectory of residuals along the growth curve. The model including fourth- and sixth-order polynomials for additive direct and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, and third-order polynomials for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects were the best. Estimates of (co) variance obtained with the multi-trait and random regression models were similar. Direct heritability estimates obtained with the random regression models followed a trend similar to that obtained with the multi-trait model. The largest estimates of maternal heritability were those of BW taken close to 240 d of age. In general, estimates of correlation between BW from birth to 8 yr of age decreased with increasing distance between ages.

Comparison of different nonlinear functions to describe Nelore cattle growth

This work aims to compare different nonlinear functions for describing the growth curves of Nelore females. The growth curve parameters, their (co) variance components, and environmental and genetic effects were estimated jointly through a Bayesian hierarchical model. In the first stage of the hierarchy, 4 nonlinear functions were compared: Brody, Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and logistic. The analyses were carried out using 3 different data sets to check goodness of fit while having animals with few records. Three different assumptions about SD of fitting errors were considered: constancy throughout the trajectory, linear increasing until 3 yr of age and constancy thereafter, and variation following the nonlinear function applied in the first stage of the hierarchy. Comparisons of the overall goodness of fit were based on Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the deviance information criterion. Goodness of fit at different points of the growth curve was compared applying the Gelfand`s check function. The posterior means of adult BW ranged from 531.78 to 586.89 kg. Greater estimates of adult BW were observed when the fitting error variance was considered constant along the trajectory. The models were not suitable to describe the SD of fitting errors at the beginning of the growth curve. All functions provided less accurate predictions at the beginning of growth, and predictions were more accurate after 48 mo of age. The prediction of adult BW using nonlinear functions can be accurate when growth curve parameters and their (co) variance components are estimated jointly. The hierarchical model used in the present study can be applied to the prediction of mature BW in herds in which a portion of the animals are culled before adult age. Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, and Brody functions were adequate to establish mean growth patterns and to predict the adult BW of Nelore females. The Brody model was more accurate in predicting the birth weight of these animals and presented the best overall goodness of fit.