972 resultados para computational study
Resumo:
Although approximately 50% of Down Syndrome (DS) patients have heart abnormalities, they exhibit an overprotection against cardiac abnormalities related with the connective tissue, for example a lower risk of coronary artery disease. A recent study reported a case of a person affected by DS who carried mutations in FBN1, the gene causative for a connective tissue disorder called Marfan Syndrome (MFS). The fact that the person did not have any cardiac alterations suggested compensation effects due to DS. This observation is supported by a previous DS meta-analysis at the molecular level where we have found an overall upregulation of FBN1 (which is usually downregulated in MFS). Additionally, that result was cross-validated with independent expression data from DS heart tissue. The aim of this work is to elucidate the role of FBN1 in DS and to establish a molecular link to MFS and MFS-related syndromes using a computational approach. To reach that, we conducted different analytical approaches over two DS studies (our previous meta-analysis and independent expression data from DS heart tissue) and revealed expression alterations in the FBN1 interaction network, in FBN1 co-expressed genes and FBN1-related pathways. After merging the significant results from different datasets with a Bayesian approach, we prioritized 85 genes that were able to distinguish control from DS cases. We further found evidence for several of these genes (47%), such as FBN1, DCN, and COL1A2, being dysregulated in MFS and MFS-related diseases. Consequently, we further encourage the scientific community to take into account FBN1 and its related network for the study of DS cardiovascular characteristics.
Resumo:
Genetic variants influence the risk to develop certain diseases or give rise to differences in drug response. Recent progresses in cost-effective, high-throughput genome-wide techniques, such as microarrays measuring Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), have facilitated genotyping of large clinical and population cohorts. Combining the massive genotypic data with measurements of phenotypic traits allows for the determination of genetic differences that explain, at least in part, the phenotypic variations within a population. So far, models combining the most significant variants can only explain a small fraction of the variance, indicating the limitations of current models. In particular, researchers have only begun to address the possibility of interactions between genotypes and the environment. Elucidating the contributions of such interactions is a difficult task because of the large number of genetic as well as possible environmental factors.In this thesis, I worked on several projects within this context. My first and main project was the identification of possible SNP-environment interactions, where the phenotypes were serum lipid levels of patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) treated with antiretroviral therapy. Here the genotypes consisted of a limited set of SNPs in candidate genes relevant for lipid transport and metabolism. The environmental variables were the specific combinations of drugs given to each patient over the treatment period. My work explored bioinformatic and statistical approaches to relate patients' lipid responses to these SNPs, drugs and, importantly, their interactions. The goal of this project was to improve our understanding and to explore the possibility of predicting dyslipidemia, a well-known adverse drug reaction of antiretroviral therapy. Specifically, I quantified how much of the variance in lipid profiles could be explained by the host genetic variants, the administered drugs and SNP-drug interactions and assessed the predictive power of these features on lipid responses. Using cross-validation stratified by patients, we could not validate our hypothesis that models that select a subset of SNP-drug interactions in a principled way have better predictive power than the control models using "random" subsets. Nevertheless, all models tested containing SNP and/or drug terms, exhibited significant predictive power (as compared to a random predictor) and explained a sizable proportion of variance, in the patient stratified cross-validation context. Importantly, the model containing stepwise selected SNP terms showed higher capacity to predict triglyceride levels than a model containing randomly selected SNPs. Dyslipidemia is a complex trait for which many factors remain to be discovered, thus missing from the data, and possibly explaining the limitations of our analysis. In particular, the interactions of drugs with SNPs selected from the set of candidate genes likely have small effect sizes which we were unable to detect in a sample of the present size (<800 patients).In the second part of my thesis, I performed genome-wide association studies within the Cohorte Lausannoise (CoLaus). I have been involved in several international projects to identify SNPs that are associated with various traits, such as serum calcium, body mass index, two-hour glucose levels, as well as metabolic syndrome and its components. These phenotypes are all related to major human health issues, such as cardiovascular disease. I applied statistical methods to detect new variants associated with these phenotypes, contributing to the identification of new genetic loci that may lead to new insights into the genetic basis of these traits. This kind of research will lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying these pathologies, a better evaluation of disease risk, the identification of new therapeutic leads and may ultimately lead to the realization of "personalized" medicine.
Resumo:
Centrifugal compressors are widely used for example in process industry, oil and gas industry, in small gas turbines and turbochargers. In order to achieve lower consumption of energy and operation costs the efficiency of the compressor needs to be improve. In the present work different pinches and low solidity vaned diffusers were utilized in order to improve the efficiency of a medium size centrifugal compressor. In this study, pinch means the decrement of the diffuser flow passage height. First different geometries were analyzed using computational fluid dynamics. The flow solver Finflo was used to solve the flow field. Finflo is a Navier-Stokes solver. The solver is capable to solve compressible, incompressible, steady and unsteady flow fields. Chien's k-e turbulence model was used. One of the numerically investigated pinched diffuser and one low solidity vaned diffuser were studied experimentally. The overall performance of the compressor and the static pressure distribution before and after the diffuser were measured. The flow entering and leaving the diffuser was measured using a three-hole Cobra-probe and Kiel-probes. The pinch and the low solidity vaned diffuser increased the efficiency of the compressor. Highest isentropic efficiency increment obtained was 3\% of the design isentropic efficiency of the original geometry. It was noticed in the numerical results that the pinch made to the hub and the shroud wall was most beneficial to the operation of the compressor. Also the pinch made to the hub was better than the pinchmade to the shroud. The pinch did not affect the operation range of the compressor, but the low solidity vaned diffuser slightly decreased the operation range.The unsteady phenomena in the vaneless diffuser were studied experimentally andnumerically. The unsteady static pressure was measured at the diffuser inlet and outlet, and time-accurate numerical simulation was conducted. The unsteady static pressure showed that most of the pressure variations lay at the passing frequency of every second blade. The pressure variations did not vanish in the diffuser and were visible at the diffuser outlet. However, the amplitude of the pressure variations decreased in the diffuser. The time-accurate calculations showed quite a good agreement with the measured data. Agreement was very good at the design operation point, even though the computational grid was not dense enough inthe volute and in the exit cone. The time-accurate calculation over-predicted the amplitude of the pressure variations at high flow.
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Small centrifugal compressors are more and more widely used in many industrialsystems because of their higher efficiency and better off-design performance comparing to piston and scroll compressors as while as higher work coefficient perstage than in axial compressors. Higher efficiency is always the aim of the designer of compressors. In the present work, the influence of four partsof a small centrifugal compressor that compresses heavy molecular weight real gas has been investigated in order to achieve higher efficiency. Two parts concern the impeller: tip clearance and the circumferential position of the splitter blade. The other two parts concern the diffuser: the pinch shape and vane shape. Computational fluid dynamics is applied in this study. The Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes flow solver Finflo is used. The quasi-steady approach is utilized. Chien's k-e turbulence model is used to model the turbulence. A new practical real gas model is presented in this study. The real gas model is easily generated, accuracy controllable and fairly fast. The numerical results and measurements show good agreement. The influence of tip clearance on the performance of a small compressor is obvious. The pressure ratio and efficiency are decreased as the size of tip clearance is increased, while the total enthalpy rise keeps almost constant. The decrement of the pressure ratio and efficiency is larger at higher mass flow rates and smaller at lower mass flow rates. The flow angles at the inlet and outlet of the impeller are increased as the size of tip clearance is increased. The results of the detailed flow field show that leakingflow is the main reason for the performance drop. The secondary flow region becomes larger as the size of tip clearance is increased and the area of the main flow is compressed. The flow uniformity is then decreased. A detailed study shows that the leaking flow rate is higher near the exit of the impeller than that near the inlet of the impeller. Based on this phenomenon, a new partiallyshrouded impeller is used. The impeller is shrouded near the exit of the impeller. The results show that the flow field near the exit of the impeller is greatly changed by the partially shrouded impeller, and better performance is achievedthan with the unshrouded impeller. The loading distribution on the impeller blade and the flow fields in the impeller is changed by moving the splitter of the impeller in circumferential direction. Moving the splitter slightly to the suction side of the long blade can improve the performance of the compressor. The total enthalpy rise is reduced if only the leading edge of the splitter ismoved to the suction side of the long blade. The performance of the compressor is decreased if the blade is bended from the radius direction at the leading edge of the splitter. The total pressure rise and the enthalpy rise of thecompressor are increased if pinch is used at the diffuser inlet. Among the fivedifferent pinch shape configurations, at design and lower mass flow rates the efficiency of a straight line pinch is the highest, while at higher mass flow rate, the efficiency of a concave pinch is the highest. The sharp corner of the pinch is the main reason for the decrease of efficiency and should be avoided. The variation of the flow angles entering the diffuser in spanwise direction is decreased if pinch is applied. A three-dimensional low solidity twisted vaned diffuser is designed to match the flow angles entering the diffuser. The numerical results show that the pressure recovery in the twisted diffuser is higher than in a conventional low solidity vaned diffuser, which also leads to higher efficiency of the twisted diffuser. Investigation of the detailed flow fields shows that the separation at lower mass flow rate in the twisted diffuser is later than in the conventional low solidity vaned diffuser, which leads to a possible wider flow range of the twisted diffuser.
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Crystal growth is an essential phase in crystallization kinetics. The rate of crystal growth provides significant information for the design and control of crystallization processes; nevertheless, obtaining accurate growth rate data is still challenging due to a number of factors that prevail in crystal growth. In industrial crystallization, crystals are generally grown from multi-componentand multi-particle solutions under complicated hydrodynamic conditions; thus, it is crucial to increase the general understanding of the growth kinetics in these systems. The aim of this work is to develop a model of the crystal growth rate from solution. An extensive literature review of crystal growth focuses on themodelling of growth kinetics and thermodynamics, and new measuring techniques that have been introduced in the field of crystallization. The growth of a singlecrystal is investigated in binary and ternary systems. The binary system consists of potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP, crystallizing solute) and water (solvent), and the ternary system includes KDP, water and an organic admixture. The studied admixtures, urea, ethanol and 1-propanol, are employed at relatively highconcentrations (of up to 5.0 molal). The influence of the admixtures on the solution thermodynamics is studied using the Pitzer activity coefficient model. Theprediction method of the ternary solubility in the studied systems is introduced and verified. The growth rate of the KDP (101) face in the studied systems aremeasured in the growth cell as a function of supersaturation, the admixture concentration, the solution velocity over a crystal and temperature. In addition, the surface morphology of the KDP (101) face is studied using ex situ atomic force microscopy (AFM). The crystal growth rate in the ternary systems is modelled on the basis of the two-step growth model that contains the Maxwell-Stefan (MS) equations and a surface-reaction model. This model is used together with measuredcrystal growth rate data to develop a new method for the evaluation of the model parameters. The validation of the model is justified with experiments. The crystal growth rate in an imperfectly mixed suspension crystallizer is investigatedusing computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A solid-liquid suspension flow that includes multi-sized particles is described by the multi-fluid model as well as by a standard k-epsilon turbulence model and an interface momentum transfer model. The local crystal growth rate is determined from calculated flow information in a diffusion-controlled crystal growth regime. The calculated results are evaluated experimentally.
Resumo:
The aim of this thesis is to study the mixing of fuel and, also to some extent, the mixing of air in a circulating fluidized bed boiler. In the literature survey part of this thesis, a review is made of the previous experimental studies related to the fuel and air mixing in the circulating fluidized beds. In the simulation part of it the commercial computational fluid dynamics software (FLUENT) is used with the Eulerian multiphase model for studying the fuel mixing in the two and three-dimensional furnace geometries. The results of the three-dimensional simulations are promising and, therefore suggestions are made for the future simulations. The two-dimensional studies give new information of the effects of the fluidization velocity, fuel particle size and fuel density on the fuel mixing. However, the present results show that three-dimensional models produce more realistic representation of the circulating fluidized bed behavior.
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PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Current computational neuroanatomy based on MRI focuses on morphological measures of the brain. We present recent methodological developments in quantitative MRI (qMRI) that provide standardized measures of the brain, which go beyond morphology. We show how biophysical modelling of qMRI data can provide quantitative histological measures of brain tissue, leading to the emerging field of in-vivo histology using MRI (hMRI). RECENT FINDINGS: qMRI has greatly improved the sensitivity and specificity of computational neuroanatomy studies. qMRI metrics can also be used as direct indicators of the mechanisms driving observed morphological findings. For hMRI, biophysical models of the MRI signal are being developed to directly access histological information such as cortical myelination, axonal diameters or axonal g-ratio in white matter. Emerging results indicate promising prospects for the combined study of brain microstructure and function. SUMMARY: Non-invasive brain tissue characterization using qMRI or hMRI has significant implications for both research and clinics. Both approaches improve comparability across sites and time points, facilitating multicentre/longitudinal studies and standardized diagnostics. hMRI is expected to shed new light on the relationship between brain microstructure, function and behaviour, both in health and disease, and become an indispensable addition to computational neuroanatomy.
Resumo:
Työn tarkoituksena on kerätä yhteen tiedot kaikista maailmalta löytyvistä ison LOCA:n ulospuhallusvaiheen tutkimiseen käytetyistä koelaitteistoista. Työn tarkoituksena on myös antaa pohjaa päätökselle, onko tarpeellista rakentaa uusi koelaitteisto nesterakenne-vuorovaikutuskoodien laskennan validoimista varten. Ennen varsinaisen koelaitteiston rakentamista olisi tarkoituksenmukaista myös rakentaa pienempi pilottikoelaitteisto, jolla voitaisiin testata käytettäviä mittausmenetelmiä. Sopivaa mittausdataa tarvitaan uusien CFD-koodien ja rakenneanalyysikoodien kytketyn laskennan validoimisessa. Näitä koodeja voidaan käyttää esimerkiksi arvioitaessa reaktorin sisäosien rakenteellista kestävyyttä ison LOCA:n ulospuhallusvaiheen aikana. Raportti keskittyy maailmalta löytyviin koelaitteistoihin, uuden koelaitteiston suunnitteluperusteisiin sekä aiheeseen liittyviin yleisiin asioihin. Raportti ei korvaa olemassa olevia validointimatriiseja, mutta sitä voi käyttää apuna etsittäessä validointitarkoituksiin sopivaa ison LOCA:n ulospuhallusvaiheen koelaitteistoa.
Resumo:
Although approximately 50% of Down Syndrome (DS) patients have heart abnormalities, they exhibit an overprotection against cardiac abnormalities related with the connective tissue, for example a lower risk of coronary artery disease. A recent study reported a case of a person affected by DS who carried mutations in FBN1, the gene causative for a connective tissue disorder called Marfan Syndrome (MFS). The fact that the person did not have any cardiac alterations suggested compensation effects due to DS. This observation is supported by a previous DS meta-analysis at the molecular level where we have found an overall upregulation of FBN1 (which is usually downregulated in MFS). Additionally, that result was cross-validated with independent expression data from DS heart tissue. The aim of this work is to elucidate the role of FBN1 in DS and to establish a molecular link to MFS and MFS-related syndromes using a computational approach. To reach that, we conducted different analytical approaches over two DS studies (our previous meta-analysis and independent expression data from DS heart tissue) and revealed expression alterations in the FBN1 interaction network, in FBN1 co-expressed genes and FBN1-related pathways. After merging the significant results from different datasets with a Bayesian approach, we prioritized 85 genes that were able to distinguish control from DS cases. We further found evidence for several of these genes (47%), such as FBN1, DCN, and COL1A2, being dysregulated in MFS and MFS-related diseases. Consequently, we further encourage the scientific community to take into account FBN1 and its related network for the study of DS cardiovascular characteristics.
Resumo:
It is often assumed that total head losses in a sand filter are solely due to the filtration media and that there are analytical solutions, such as the Ergun equation, to compute them. However, total head losses are also due to auxiliary elements (inlet and outlet pipes and filter nozzles), which produce undesirable head losses because they increase energy requirements without contributing to the filtration process. In this study, ANSYS Fluent version 6.3, a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software program, was used to compute head losses in different parts of a sand filter. Six different numerical filter models of varying complexities were used to understand the hydraulic behavior of the several filter elements and their importance in total head losses. The simulation results show that 84.6% of these were caused by the sand bed and 15.4% were due to auxiliary elements (4.4% in the outlet and inlet pipes, and 11.0% in the perforated plate and nozzles). Simulation results with different models show the important role of the nozzles in the hydraulic behavior of the sand filter. The relationship between the passing area through the nozzles and the passing area through the perforated plate is an important design parameter for the reduction of total head losses. A reduced relationship caused by nozzle clogging would disproportionately increase the total head losses in the sand filter
Resumo:
(E)-2-{[(2-Aminopyridin-3-yl)imino]-methyl}-4,6-di-tert-butyl-phenol ( 3: ), a ligand containing an intramolecular hydrogen bond, was prepared according to a previous literature report, with modifications, and was characterized by UV-vis, FTIR, ¹H-NMR, 13C-NMR, HHCOSY, TOCSY and cyclic voltammetry. Computational analyses at the level of DFT and TD-DFT were performed to study its electronic and molecular structures. The results of these analyses elucidated the behaviors of the UV-vis and electrochemical data. Analysis of the transitions in the computed spectrum showed that the most important band is primarily composed of a HOMO→LUMO transition, designated as an intraligand (IL) charge transfer.
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The problem of understanding how humans perceive the quality of a reproduced image is of interest to researchers of many fields related to vision science and engineering: optics and material physics, image processing (compression and transfer), printing and media technology, and psychology. A measure for visual quality cannot be defined without ambiguity because it is ultimately the subjective opinion of an “end-user” observing the product. The purpose of this thesis is to devise computational methods to estimate the overall visual quality of prints, i.e. a numerical value that combines all the relevant attributes of the perceived image quality. The problem is limited to consider the perceived quality of printed photographs from the viewpoint of a consumer, and moreover, the study focuses only on digital printing methods, such as inkjet and electrophotography. The main contributions of this thesis are two novel methods to estimate the overall visual quality of prints. In the first method, the quality is computed as a visible difference between the reproduced image and the original digital (reference) image, which is assumed to have an ideal quality. The second method utilises instrumental print quality measures, such as colour densities, measured from printed technical test fields, and connects the instrumental measures to the overall quality via subjective attributes, i.e. attributes that directly contribute to the perceived quality, using a Bayesian network. Both approaches were evaluated and verified with real data, and shown to predict well the subjective evaluation results.
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Systems biology is a new, emerging and rapidly developing, multidisciplinary research field that aims to study biochemical and biological systems from a holistic perspective, with the goal of providing a comprehensive, system- level understanding of cellular behaviour. In this way, it addresses one of the greatest challenges faced by contemporary biology, which is to compre- hend the function of complex biological systems. Systems biology combines various methods that originate from scientific disciplines such as molecu- lar biology, chemistry, engineering sciences, mathematics, computer science and systems theory. Systems biology, unlike “traditional” biology, focuses on high-level concepts such as: network, component, robustness, efficiency, control, regulation, hierarchical design, synchronization, concurrency, and many others. The very terminology of systems biology is “foreign” to “tra- ditional” biology, marks its drastic shift in the research paradigm and it indicates close linkage of systems biology to computer science. One of the basic tools utilized in systems biology is the mathematical modelling of life processes tightly linked to experimental practice. The stud- ies contained in this thesis revolve around a number of challenges commonly encountered in the computational modelling in systems biology. The re- search comprises of the development and application of a broad range of methods originating in the fields of computer science and mathematics for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology. In particular, the performed research is setup in the context of two biolog- ical phenomena chosen as modelling case studies: 1) the eukaryotic heat shock response and 2) the in vitro self-assembly of intermediate filaments, one of the main constituents of the cytoskeleton. The range of presented approaches spans from heuristic, through numerical and statistical to ana- lytical methods applied in the effort to formally describe and analyse the two biological processes. We notice however, that although applied to cer- tain case studies, the presented methods are not limited to them and can be utilized in the analysis of other biological mechanisms as well as com- plex systems in general. The full range of developed and applied modelling techniques as well as model analysis methodologies constitutes a rich mod- elling framework. Moreover, the presentation of the developed methods, their application to the two case studies and the discussions concerning their potentials and limitations point to the difficulties and challenges one encounters in computational modelling of biological systems. The problems of model identifiability, model comparison, model refinement, model inte- gration and extension, choice of the proper modelling framework and level of abstraction, or the choice of the proper scope of the model run through this thesis.
Resumo:
The aim of this study was to simulate blood flow in thoracic human aorta and understand the role of flow dynamics in the initialization and localization of atherosclerotic plaque in human thoracic aorta. The blood flow dynamics in idealized and realistic models of human thoracic aorta were numerically simulated in three idealized and two realistic thoracic aorta models. The idealized models of thoracic aorta were reconstructed with measurements available from literature, and the realistic models of thoracic aorta were constructed by image processing Computed Tomographic (CT) images. The CT images were made available by South Karelia Central Hospital in Lappeenranta. The reconstruction of thoracic aorta consisted of operations, such as contrast adjustment, image segmentations, and 3D surface rendering. Additional design operations were performed to make the aorta model compatible for the numerical method based computer code. The image processing and design operations were performed with specialized medical image processing software. Pulsatile pressure and velocity boundary conditions were deployed as inlet boundary conditions. The blood flow was assumed homogeneous and incompressible. The blood was assumed to be a Newtonian fluid. The simulations with idealized models of thoracic aorta were carried out with Finite Element Method based computer code, while the simulations with realistic models of thoracic aorta were carried out with Finite Volume Method based computer code. Simulations were carried out for four cardiac cycles. The distribution of flow, pressure and Wall Shear Stress (WSS) observed during the fourth cardiac cycle were extensively analyzed. The aim of carrying out the simulations with idealized model was to get an estimate of flow dynamics in a realistic aorta model. The motive behind the choice of three aorta models with distinct features was to understand the dependence of flow dynamics on aorta anatomy. Highly disturbed and nonuniform distribution of velocity and WSS was observed in aortic arch, near brachiocephalic, left common artery, and left subclavian artery. On the other hand, the WSS profiles at the roots of branches show significant differences with geometry variation of aorta and branches. The comparison of instantaneous WSS profiles revealed that the model with straight branching arteries had relatively lower WSS compared to that in the aorta model with curved branches. In addition to this, significant differences were observed in the spatial and temporal profiles of WSS, flow, and pressure. The study with idealized model was extended to study blood flow in thoracic aorta under the effects of hypertension and hypotension. One of the idealized aorta models was modified along with the boundary conditions to mimic the thoracic aorta under the effects of hypertension and hypotension. The results of simulations with realistic models extracted from CT scans demonstrated more realistic flow dynamics than that in the idealized models. During systole, the velocity in ascending aorta was skewed towards the outer wall of aortic arch. The flow develops secondary flow patterns as it moves downstream towards aortic arch. Unlike idealized models, the distribution of flow was nonplanar and heavily guided by the artery anatomy. Flow cavitation was observed in the aorta model which was imaged giving longer branches. This could not be properly observed in the model with imaging containing a shorter length for aortic branches. The flow circulation was also observed in the inner wall of the aortic arch. However, during the diastole, the flow profiles were almost flat and regular due the acceleration of flow at the inlet. The flow profiles were weakly turbulent during the flow reversal. The complex flow patterns caused a non-uniform distribution of WSS. High WSS was distributed at the junction of branches and aortic arch. Low WSS was distributed at the proximal part of the junction, while intermedium WSS was distributed in the distal part of the junction. The pulsatile nature of the inflow caused oscillating WSS at the branch entry region and inner curvature of aortic arch. Based on the WSS distribution in the realistic model, one of the aorta models was altered to induce artificial atherosclerotic plaque at the branch entry region and inner curvature of aortic arch. Atherosclerotic plaque causing 50% blockage of lumen was introduced in brachiocephalic artery, common carotid artery, left subclavian artery, and aortic arch. The aim of this part of the study was first to study the effect of stenosis on flow and WSS distribution, understand the effect of shape of atherosclerotic plaque on flow and WSS distribution, and finally to investigate the effect of lumen blockage severity on flow and WSS distributions. The results revealed that the distribution of WSS is significantly affected by plaque with mere 50% stenosis. The asymmetric shape of stenosis causes higher WSS in branching arteries than in the cases with symmetric plaque. The flow dynamics within thoracic aorta models has been extensively studied and reported here. The effects of pressure and arterial anatomy on the flow dynamic were investigated. The distribution of complex flow and WSS is correlated with the localization of atherosclerosis. With the available results we can conclude that the thoracic aorta, with complex anatomy is the most vulnerable artery for the localization and development of atherosclerosis. The flow dynamics and arterial anatomy play a role in the localization of atherosclerosis. The patient specific image based models can be used to diagnose the locations in the aorta vulnerable to the development of arterial diseases such as atherosclerosis.
Resumo:
Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.