Critical thinking and accuracy of nurses' diagnoses. Part II: application of cognitive skills and guidelines for self-development

Part I of this article, the author explained the difficulties of achieving accuracy of nurses' diagnoses, the relevance of critical thinking to the achievement of accuracy, and newer views of critical thinking. In Part II, the critical thinking dimensions identified as important for nursing practice are applied in the diagnostic process using a case study of a 16 year old girl with type 1 diabetes. Application of seven cognitive skills and ten habits of mind illustrate the importance of using critical thinking for accuracy of nurses' diagnoses. Ten strategies are proposed for self-development of critical thinking abilities.

Estimation of electronic coupling in π -stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽ da = (E2 - E1) μ12 Rda + (2 E3 - E1 - E2) 2 μ13 μ23 Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model

Diagnostic Performance of Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Computed Tomography for Advanced Retinoblastoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: To determine and compare the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT) for the diagnosis of tumor extent in advanced retinoblastoma, using histopathologic analysis as the reference standard. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with advanced retinoblastoma who underwent MRI, CT, or both for the detection of tumor extent from published diagnostic accuracy studies. METHODS: Medline and Embase were searched for literature published through April 2013 assessing the diagnostic performance of MRI, CT, or both in detecting intraorbital and extraorbital tumor extension of retinoblastoma. Diagnostic accuracy data were extracted from included studies. Summary estimates were based on a random effects model. Intrastudy and interstudy heterogeneity were analyzed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity and specificity of MRI and CT in detecting tumor extent. RESULTS: Data of the following tumor-extent parameters were extracted: anterior eye segment involvement and ciliary body, optic nerve, choroidal, and (extra)scleral invasion. Articles on MRI reported results of 591 eyes from 14 studies, and articles on CT yielded 257 eyes from 4 studies. The summary estimates with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the diagnostic accuracy of conventional MRI at detecting postlaminar optic nerve, choroidal, and scleral invasion showed sensitivities of 59% (95% CI, 37%-78%), 74% (95% CI, 52%-88%), and 88% (95% CI, 20%-100%), respectively, and specificities of 94% (95% CI, 84%-98%), 72% (95% CI, 31%-94%), and 99% (95% CI, 86%-100%), respectively. Magnetic resonance imaging with a high (versus a low) image quality showed higher diagnostic accuracies for detection of prelaminar optic nerve and choroidal invasion, but these differences were not statistically significant. Studies reporting the diagnostic accuracy of CT did not provide enough data to perform any meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Magnetic resonance imaging is an important diagnostic tool for the detection of local tumor extent in advanced retinoblastoma, although its diagnostic accuracy shows room for improvement, especially with regard to sensitivity. With only a few-mostly old-studies, there is very little evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of CT, and generally these studies show low diagnostic accuracy. Future studies assessing the role of MRI in clinical decision making in terms of prognostic value for advanced retinoblastoma are needed.

Visual functions in the healthy and schizophrenic brain : from stimulus control to illusory perceptions using electrical neuroimaging

ABSTRACT (FRENCH)Ce travail de thèse basé sur le système visuel chez les sujets sains et chez les patients schizophrènes, s'articule autour de trois articles scientifiques publiés ou en cours de publication. Ces articles traitent des sujets suivants : le premier article présente une nouvelle méthode de traitement des composantes physiques des stimuli (luminance et fréquence spatiale). Le second article montre, à l'aide d'analyses de données EEG, un déficit de la voie magnocellulaire dans le traitement visuel des illusions chez les patients schizophrènes. Ceci est démontré par l'absence de modulation de la composante PI chez les patients schizophrènes contrairement aux sujets sains. Cette absence est induite par des stimuli de type illusion Kanizsa de différentes excentricités. Finalement, le troisième article, également à l'aide de méthodes de neuroimagerie électrique (EEG), montre que le traitement des contours illusoires se trouve dans le complexe latéro-occipital (LOC), à l'aide d'illusion « misaligned gratings ». De plus il révèle que les activités démontrées précédemment dans les aires visuelles primaires sont dues à des inférences « top- down ».Afin de permettre la compréhension de ces trois articles, l'introduction de ce manuscrit présente les concepts essentiels. De plus des méthodes d'analyses de temps-fréquence sont présentées. L'introduction est divisée en quatre parties : la première présente le système visuel depuis les cellules retino-corticales aux deux voix du traitement de l'information en passant par les régions composant le système visuel. La deuxième partie présente la schizophrénie par son diagnostic, ces déficits de bas niveau de traitement des stimuli visuel et ces déficits cognitifs. La troisième partie présente le traitement des contours illusoires et les trois modèles utilisés dans le dernier article. Finalement, les méthodes de traitement des données EEG seront explicitées, y compris les méthodes de temps-fréquences.Les résultats des trois articles sont présentés dans le chapitre éponyme (du même nom). De plus ce chapitre comprendra les résultats obtenus à l'aide des méthodes de temps-fréquenceFinalement, la discussion sera orientée selon trois axes : les méthodes de temps-fréquence ainsi qu'une proposition de traitement de ces données par une méthode statistique indépendante de la référence. La discussion du premier article en montrera la qualité du traitement de ces stimuli. La discussion des deux articles neurophysiologiques, proposera de nouvelles d'expériences afin d'affiner les résultats actuels sur les déficits des schizophrènes. Ceci pourrait permettre d'établir un marqueur biologique fiable de la schizophrénie.ABSTRACT (ENGLISH)This thesis focuses on the visual system in healthy subjects and schizophrenic patients. To address this research, advanced methods of analysis of electroencephalographic (EEG) data were used and developed. This manuscript is comprised of three scientific articles. The first article showed a novel method to control the physical features of visual stimuli (luminance and spatial frequencies). The second article showed, using electrical neuroimaging of EEG, a deficit in spatial processing associated with the dorsal pathway in chronic schizophrenic patients. This deficit was elicited by an absent modulation of the PI component in terms of response strength and topography as well as source estimations. This deficit was orthogonal to the preserved ability to process Kanizsa-type illusory contours. Finally, the third article resolved ongoing debates concerning the neural mechanism mediating illusory contour sensitivity by using electrical neuroimaging to show that the first differentiation of illusory contour presence vs. absence is localized within the lateral occipital complex. This effect was subsequent to modulations due to the orientation of misaligned grating stimuli. Collectively, these results support a model where effects in V1/V2 are mediated by "top-down" modulation from the LOC.To understand these three articles, the Introduction of this thesis presents the major concepts used in these articles. Additionally, a section is devoted to time-frequency analysis methods not presented in the articles themselves. The introduction is divided in four parts. The first part presents three aspects of the visual system: cellular, regional, and its functional interactions. The second part presents an overview of schizophrenia and its sensoiy-cognitive deficits. The third part presents an overview of illusory contour processing and the three models examined in the third article. Finally, advanced analysis methods for EEG are presented, including time- frequency methodology.The Introduction is followed by a synopsis of the main results in the articles as well as those obtained from the time-frequency analyses.Finally, the Discussion chapter is divided along three axes. The first axis discusses the time frequency analysis and proposes a novel statistical approach that is independent of the reference. The second axis contextualizes the first article and discusses the quality of the stimulus control and direction for further improvements. Finally, both neurophysiologic articles are contextualized by proposing future experiments and hypotheses that may serve to improve our understanding of schizophrenia on the one hand and visual functions more generally.

Allostatic working memory processing in schizophrenia: Human and animal model coherence

The most evident symptoms of schizophrenia are severe impairment of cognitive functions like attention, abstract reasoning and working memory. The latter has been defined as the ability to maintain and manipulate on-line a limited amount of information. Whereas several studies show that working memory processes are impaired in schizophrenia, the specificity of this deficit is still unclear. Results obtained with a new paradigm, involving visuospatial, dynamic and static working memory processing, suggest that schizophrenic patients rely on a specific compensatory strategy. An animal model of schizophrenia with a transient deficit in glutathione during the development reveals similar substitutive processing, masking the impairment in working memory functions in specific test conditions only. Taken together, these results show coherence between working memory deficits in schizophrenic patients and in animal models. More generally, it is possible to consider that the pathological state may be interpreted as a reduced homeostatic reserve. However, this may be balanced in specific situations by efficient allostatic strategies. Thus, the pathological condition would remain latent in several situations, due to such allostatic regulations. However, to maintain a performance based on highly specific strategies requires in turn specific conditions, limitating adaptative resources in humans and in animals. In summary, we suggest that the psychological and physical load to maintain this rigid allostatic state is very high in patients and animal subjects.

The evolution of personality in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

Aims: To describe personality traits and their changes in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and control subjects. Methods: Sixty-three MCI and 90 control subjects were asked to describe their current personality traits by the Structured Interview for the Five-Factor Model (SIFFM). For each subject, a close relative retrospectively assessed these descriptions both as to the previous and current personality traits, using the Revised NEO Personality Inventory, Form R (NEO-PI-R). Results: Self-assessed MCI subjects reported significantly lower scores in the openness dimension than control subjects [F(1, 150) = 9.84, p = 0.002, ηp(2) = 0.06]. In current observer ratings, MCI subjects had higher scores on neuroticism [F(1, 137) = 7.55, p = 0.007, ηp(2) = 0.05] and lower ones on extraversion [F(1, 137) = 6.40, p = 0.013, ηp(2) = 0.04], openness [F(1, 137) = 9.93, p = 0.002, ηp(2) = 0.07], agreeableness [F(1, 137) = 10.18, p = 0.002, ηp(2) = 0.07] and conscientiousness [F(1, 137) = 25.96, p < 0.001, ηp(2) = 0.16]. Previous personality traits discriminated the groups as previous openness [odds ratio (OR) = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.95-0.99, p = 0.014] and conscientiousness (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.98, p = 0.001) were negatively related to MCI group membership. In MCI subjects, conscientiousness [F(1, 137) = 19.20, p < 0.001, ηp(2) = 0.12] and extraversion [F(1, 137) = 22.27, p < 0.001, ηp(2) = 0.14] decreased between previous and current evaluations and neuroticism increased [F(1, 137) = 22.23, p < 0.001, ηp(2) = 0.14], whereas no significant change was found in control subjects. Conclusions: MCI subjects undergo significant personality changes. Thus, personality assessment may aid the early detection of dementia. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Selective tumor localization of radiolabeled anti-human melanoma monoclonal antibody fragment demonstrated in the nude mouse model.

Monoclonal antibodies (Mab) directed against distinct epitopes of the human 240 kD melanoma-associated antigen have been evaluated for their capacity to localize in human melanoma grafted into nude mice. A favorable tumor to normal tissue ratio of 13 was obtained with intact 131I-labeled MAb Me1-14. This ratio was further increased to 43 and 23 by the use of F(ab')2 and Fab fragments, respectively. The specificity of tumor localization was demonstrated by the simultaneous injection of F(ab')2 fragments from MAb Me1-14 and anti-CEA MAb 35, each labeled with a different iodine isotope, into nude mice grafted with a melanoma and colon carcinoma. The fragments from both MAb localized with perfect selectivity in their relevant tumor as shown by differential whole body scanning and by direct measurement of the two isotopes in tumors and normal tissues. These in vivo experimental results suggest that the F(ab')2 fragment from MAb Me1-14 is suitable for melanoma detection by immunoscintigraphy in patients.

Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of twopredictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled. Clinical and CT data were used for LR and NN models. Both models were developed with cross validation, leave-one-out and three different bootstrap algorithms. The final results of each model were compared with error rate and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (Az). The neural network obtained statistically higher Az than LR with cross validation. The remaining resampling validation methods did not reveal statistically significant differences between LR and NN rules. The neural network classifier performs better than the one based on logistic regression. This advantage is well detected by three-fold cross-validation, but remains unnoticed when leave-one-out or bootstrap algorithms are used.

Non-invasive diagnostic biomarkers for estimating the onset time of permanent cerebral ischemia.

The treatments for ischemic stroke can only be administered in a narrow time-window. However, the ischemia onset time is unknown in ~30% of stroke patients (wake-up strokes). The objective of this study was to determine whether MR spectra of ischemic brains might allow the precise estimation of cerebral ischemia onset time. We modeled ischemic stroke in male ICR-CD1 mice using a permanent middle cerebral artery filament occlusion model with laser Doppler control of the regional cerebral blood flow. Mice were then subjected to repeated MRS measurements of ipsilateral striatum at 14.1 T. A striking initial increase in γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) and no increase in glutamine were observed. A steady decline was observed for taurine (Tau), N-acetyl-aspartate (NAA) and similarly for the sum of NAA+Tau+glutamate that mimicked an exponential function. The estimation of the time of onset of permanent ischemia within 6 hours in a blinded experiment with mice showed an accuracy of 33±10 minutes. A plot of GABA, Tau, and neuronal marker concentrations against the ratio of acetate/NAA allowed precise separation of mice whose ischemia onset lay within arbitrarily chosen time-windows. We conclude that (1)H-MRS has the potential to detect the clinically relevant time of onset of ischemic stroke.

Differential vulnerability of neurochemically identified subpopulations of retinal neurons in a monkey model of glaucoma.

The vulnerability of subpopulations of retinal neurons delineated by their content of cytoskeletal or calcium-binding proteins was evaluated in the retinas of cynomolgus monkeys in which glaucoma was produced with an argon laser. We quantitatively compared the number of neurons containing either neurofilament (NF) protein, parvalbumin, calbindin or calretinin immunoreactivity in central and peripheral portions of the nasal and temporal quadrants of the retina from glaucomatous and fellow non-glaucomatous eyes. There was no significant difference between the proportion of amacrine, horizontal and bipolar cells labeled with antibodies to the calcium-binding proteins comparing the two eyes. NF triplet immunoreactivity was present in a subpopulation of retinal ganglion cells, many of which, but not all, likely correspond to large ganglion cells that subserve the magnocellular visual pathway. Loss of NF protein-containing retinal ganglion cells was widespread throughout the central (59-77% loss) and peripheral (96-97%) nasal and temporal quadrants and was associated with the loss of NF-immunoreactive optic nerve fibers in the glaucomatous eyes. Comparison of counts of NF-immunoreactive neurons with total cell loss evaluated by Nissl staining indicated that NF protein-immunoreactive cells represent a large proportion of the cells that degenerate in the glaucomatous eyes, particularly in the peripheral regions of the retina. Such data may be useful in determining the cellular basis for sensitivity to this pathologic process and may also be helpful in the design of diagnostic tests that may be sensitive to the loss of the subset of NF-immunoreactive ganglion cells.

Genetic manipulation of adult-born hippocampal neurons rescues memory in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease.

In adult mammals, neural progenitors located in the dentate gyrus retain their ability to generate neurons and glia throughout lifetime. In rodents, increased production of new granule neurons is associated with improved memory capacities, while decreased hippocampal neurogenesis results in impaired memory performance in several memory tasks. In mouse models of Alzheimer's disease, neurogenesis is impaired and the granule neurons that are generated fail to integrate existing networks. Thus, enhancing neurogenesis should improve functional plasticity in the hippocampus and restore cognitive deficits in these mice. Here, we performed a screen of transcription factors that could potentially enhance adult hippocampal neurogenesis. We identified Neurod1 as a robust neuronal determinant with the capability to direct hippocampal progenitors towards an exclusive granule neuron fate. Importantly, Neurod1 also accelerated neuronal maturation and functional integration of new neurons during the period of their maturation when they contribute to memory processes. When tested in an APPxPS1 mouse model of Alzheimer's disease, directed expression of Neurod1 in cycling hippocampal progenitors conspicuously reduced dendritic spine density deficits on new hippocampal neurons, to the same level as that observed in healthy age-matched control animals. Remarkably, this population of highly connected new neurons was sufficient to restore spatial memory in these diseased mice. Collectively our findings demonstrate that endogenous neural stem cells of the diseased brain can be manipulated to become new neurons that could allow cognitive improvement.

Diagnostic Performances of 18F-FDG Positron Emission Tomography in Large Vessels Vasculitis: Meta-analysis

Toperform a meta-analysis of FDG-PET performances in the diagnosis of largevessels vasculitis (Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) associated or not withPolymyalgia Rheumatica(PMR), Takayasu). Materials and methods : The MEDLINE,Cochrane Library, Embase were searched for relevant original articlesdescribing FDG-PET for vasculitis assessment, using MesH terms ("GiantCell Arteritis or Vasculitis" AND "PET"). Criteria for inclusionwere:(1)FDG-PET for diagnosis of vasculitis(2)American College of Rheumatologycriteria as reference standard(3)control group. After data extraction, analyseswere performed using a random-effects model. Results : Of 184 citations(database search and references screening),70 articles were reviewed of which12 eligible studies were extracted (sensitivity range from 32% to 97%). 7studies fulfilled all inclusion criteria. Owing to overlapping population, 1study was excluded. Statistical heterogeneity justified the random-effectsmodel. Pooled 6 studies analysis(116 vasculitis,224 controls) showed a 81%sensitivity (95%CI:70-89%);a 89% specificity (95%CI:77-95%);a 85%PPV(95%CI:63-95%); a 90% NPV(95%CI:79-95%);a 7.1 positive LR(95%CI:3.4-14.9); a0.2 negative LR(95%CI:0.14-0.35) and 90.1 DOR(95%CI: 18.6-437). Conclusion :FDG-PET has good diagnostic performances in the detection of large vesselsvasculitis. Its promising role could be extended to follow up patients undertreatment, but further studies are needed to confirm this possibility.

Schizophrenia connectivity: correlation between cognitive deficits and reduced thalamo-cortical fibers

Introduction: Schizophrenia is associated with multiple neuropsychological dysfunctions, such as disturbances of attention, memory, perceptual functioning, concept formation and executive processes. These cognitive functions are reported to depend on the integrity of the prefrontal and thalamo-prefrontal circuits. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that schizophrenia is related to abnormalities in neural circuitry and impaired structural connectivity. Here, we report a preliminary case-control study that showed a correlation between thalamo-frontal connections and several cognitive functions known to be impaired in schizophrenia. Materials and Methods: We investigated 9 schizophrenic patients (DSM IV criteria, Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies) and 9 age and sex matched control subjects. We obtained from each volunteer a DT-MRI dataset (3 T, _ _ 1,000 s/mm2), and a high resolution anatomic T1. The thalamo- frontal tracts are simulated with DTI tractography on these dataset, a method allowing inference of the main neural fiber tracks from Diffusion MRI data. In order to see an eventual correlation with the thalamo-frontal connections, every subject performs a battery of neuropsychological tests including computerized tests of attention (sustained attention, selective attention and reaction time), working memory tests (Plane test and the working memory sub-tests of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale), a executive functioning task (Tower of Hanoï) and a test of visual binding abilities. Results: In a pilot case-control study (patients: n _ 9; controls: n _ 9), we showed that this methodology is appropriate and giving results in the excepted range. Considering the relation of the connectivity density and the neuropsychological data, a correlation between the number of thalamo- frontal fibers and the performance in the Tower of Hanoï was observed in the patients (Pearson correlation, r _ 0.76, p _ 0.05) but not in control subjects. In the most difficult item of the test, the least number of fibers corresponds to the worst performance of the test (fig. 2, number of supplementary movements of the elements necessary to realize the right configuration). It's interesting to note here that in an independent study, we showed that schizophrenia patients (n _ 32) perform in the most difficult item of the Tower of Hanoï (Mann-Whitney, p _ 0.005) significantly worse than control subjects (n _ 29). This has been observed in several others neuropsychological studies. Discussion: This pilot study of schizophrenia patients shows a correlation between the number of thalam-frontal fibers and the performance in the Tower of Hanoï, which is a planning and goal oriented actions task known to be associated with frontal dysfonction. This observation is consistent with the proposed impaired connectivity in schizophrenia. We aim to pursue the study with a larger sample in order to determine if other neuropsychological tests may be associated with the connectivity density.

Diagnostic value of vestibulo-ocular reflex parameters in the detection and characterization of labyrinthine lesions.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the power of various parameters of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) in detecting unilateral peripheral vestibular dysfunction and in characterizing certain inner ear pathologies. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study of consecutive ambulatory patients presenting with acute onset of peripheral vertigo and spontaneous nystagmus. SETTING: Tertiary referral center. PATIENTS: Seventy-four patients (40 females, 34 males) and 22 normal subjects (11 females, 11 males) were included in the study. Patients were classified in three main diagnoses: vestibular neuritis: 40; viral labyrinthitis: 22; Meniere's disease: 12. METHODS: The VOR function was evaluated by standard caloric and impulse rotary tests (velocity step). A mathematical model of vestibular function was used to characterize the VOR response to rotational stimulation. The diagnostic value of the different VOR parameters was assessed by uni- and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, caloric asymmetry emerged as the most powerful VOR parameter in identifying unilateral vestibular deficit, with a boundary limit set at 20%. In multivariable analysis, the combination of caloric asymmetry and rotational time constant asymmetry significantly improved the discriminatory power over caloric alone (p&lt;0.0001) and produced a detection score with a correct classification of 92.4%. In discriminating labyrinthine diseases, different combinations of the VOR parameters were obtained for each diagnosis (p&lt;0.003) supporting that the VOR characteristics differ between the three inner ear disorders. However, the clinical usefulness of these characteristics in separating the pathologies was limited. CONCLUSION: We propose a powerful logistic model combining the indices of caloric and time constant asymmetries to detect a peripheral vestibular loss, with an accuracy of 92.4%. Based on vestibular data only, the discrimination between the different inner ear diseases is statistically possible, which supports different pathophysiologic changes in labyrinthine pathologies.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.