L’arbre de régression multivariable et les modèles linéaires généralisés revisités : applications à l’étude de la diversité bêta et à l’estimation de la biomasse d’arbres tropicaux

En écologie, dans le cadre par exemple d’études des services fournis par les écosystèmes, les modélisations descriptive, explicative et prédictive ont toutes trois leur place distincte. Certaines situations bien précises requièrent soit l’un soit l’autre de ces types de modélisation ; le bon choix s’impose afin de pouvoir faire du modèle un usage conforme aux objectifs de l’étude. Dans le cadre de ce travail, nous explorons dans un premier temps le pouvoir explicatif de l’arbre de régression multivariable (ARM). Cette méthode de modélisation est basée sur un algorithme récursif de bipartition et une méthode de rééchantillonage permettant l’élagage du modèle final, qui est un arbre, afin d’obtenir le modèle produisant les meilleures prédictions. Cette analyse asymétrique à deux tableaux permet l’obtention de groupes homogènes d’objets du tableau réponse, les divisions entre les groupes correspondant à des points de coupure des variables du tableau explicatif marquant les changements les plus abrupts de la réponse. Nous démontrons qu’afin de calculer le pouvoir explicatif de l’ARM, on doit définir un coefficient de détermination ajusté dans lequel les degrés de liberté du modèle sont estimés à l’aide d’un algorithme. Cette estimation du coefficient de détermination de la population est pratiquement non biaisée. Puisque l’ARM sous-tend des prémisses de discontinuité alors que l’analyse canonique de redondance (ACR) modélise des gradients linéaires continus, la comparaison de leur pouvoir explicatif respectif permet entre autres de distinguer quel type de patron la réponse suit en fonction des variables explicatives. La comparaison du pouvoir explicatif entre l’ACR et l’ARM a été motivée par l’utilisation extensive de l’ACR afin d’étudier la diversité bêta. Toujours dans une optique explicative, nous définissons une nouvelle procédure appelée l’arbre de régression multivariable en cascade (ARMC) qui permet de construire un modèle tout en imposant un ordre hiérarchique aux hypothèses à l’étude. Cette nouvelle procédure permet d’entreprendre l’étude de l’effet hiérarchisé de deux jeux de variables explicatives, principal et subordonné, puis de calculer leur pouvoir explicatif. L’interprétation du modèle final se fait comme dans une MANOVA hiérarchique. On peut trouver dans les résultats de cette analyse des informations supplémentaires quant aux liens qui existent entre la réponse et les variables explicatives, par exemple des interactions entres les deux jeux explicatifs qui n’étaient pas mises en évidence par l’analyse ARM usuelle. D’autre part, on étudie le pouvoir prédictif des modèles linéaires généralisés en modélisant la biomasse de différentes espèces d’arbre tropicaux en fonction de certaines de leurs mesures allométriques. Plus particulièrement, nous examinons la capacité des structures d’erreur gaussienne et gamma à fournir les prédictions les plus précises. Nous montrons que pour une espèce en particulier, le pouvoir prédictif d’un modèle faisant usage de la structure d’erreur gamma est supérieur. Cette étude s’insère dans un cadre pratique et se veut un exemple pour les gestionnaires voulant estimer précisément la capture du carbone par des plantations d’arbres tropicaux. Nos conclusions pourraient faire partie intégrante d’un programme de réduction des émissions de carbone par les changements d’utilisation des terres.

Meteorological forcing data for urban outdoor thermal comfort models from a coupled convective boundary layer and surface energy balance scheme

Site-specific meteorological forcing appropriate for applications such as urban outdoor thermal comfort simulations can be obtained using a newly coupled scheme that combines a simple slab convective boundary layer (CBL) model and urban land surface model (ULSM) (here two ULSMs are considered). The former simulates daytime CBL height, air temperature and humidity, and the latter estimates urban surface energy and water balance fluxes accounting for changes in land surface cover. The coupled models are tested at a suburban site and two rural sites, one irrigated and one unirrigated grass, in Sacramento, U.S.A. All the variables modelled compare well to measurements (e.g. coefficient of determination = 0.97 and root mean square error = 1.5 °C for air temperature). The current version is applicable to daytime conditions and needs initial state conditions for the CBL model in the appropriate range to obtain the required performance. The coupled model allows routine observations from distant sites (e.g. rural, airport) to be used to predict air temperature and relative humidity in an urban area of interest. This simple model, which can be rapidly applied, could provide urban data for applications such as air quality forecasting and building energy modelling, in addition to outdoor thermal comfort.

Intrinsically Multivariate Predictive Genes

Canalizing genes possess such broad regulatory power, and their action sweeps across a such a wide swath of processes that the full set of affected genes are not highly correlated under normal conditions. When not active, the controlling gene will not be predictable to any significant degree by its subject genes, either alone or in groups, since their behavior will be highly varied relative to the inactive controlling gene. When the controlling gene is active, its behavior is not well predicted by any one of its targets, but can be very well predicted by groups of genes under its control. To investigate this question, we introduce in this paper the concept of intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) genes, and present a mathematical study of IMP in the context of binary genes with respect to the coefficient of determination (CoD), which measures the predictive power of a set of genes with respect to a target gene. A set of predictor genes is said to be IMP for a target gene if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are bad predictors of the target but the full predictor set predicts the target with great accuracy. We show that logic of prediction, predictive power, covariance between predictors, and the entropy of the joint probability distribution of the predictors jointly affect the appearance of IMP genes. In particular, we show that high-predictive power, small covariance among predictors, a large entropy of the joint probability distribution of predictors, and certain logics, such as XOR in the 2-predictor case, are factors that favor the appearance of IMP. The IMP concept is applied to characterize the behavior of the gene DUSP1, which exhibits control over a central, process-integrating signaling pathway, thereby providing preliminary evidence that IMP can be used as a criterion for discovery of canalizing genes.

Fatores críticos de sucesso como antecedentes da aceitação de um sistema de informação em uma universidade federal

In recent decades the public sector comes under pressure in order to improve its performance. The use of Information Technology (IT) has been a tool increasingly used in reaching that goal. Thus, it has become an important issue in public organizations, particularly in institutions of higher education, determine which factors influence the acceptance and use of technology, impacting on the success of its implementation and the desired organizational results. The Technology Acceptance Model - TAM was used as the basis for this study and is based on the constructs perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. However, when it comes to integrated management systems due to the complexity of its implementation,organizational factors were added to thus seek further explanation of the acceptance of such systems. Thus, added to the model five TAM constructs related to critical success factors in implementing ERP systems, they are: support of top management, communication, training, cooperation, and technological complexity (BUENO and SALMERON, 2008). Based on the foregoing, launches the following research problem: What factors influence the acceptance and use of SIE / module academic at the Federal University of Para, from the users' perception of teachers and technicians? The purpose of this study was to identify the influence of organizational factors, and behavioral antecedents of behavioral intention to use the SIE / module academic UFPA in the perspective of teachers and technical users. This is applied research, exploratory and descriptive, quantitative with the implementation of a survey, and data collection occurred through a structured questionnaire applied to a sample of 229 teachers and 30 technical and administrative staff. Data analysis was carried out through descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling with the technique of partial least squares (PLS). Effected primarily to assess the measurement model, which were verified reliability, convergent and discriminant validity for all indicators and constructs. Then the structural model was analyzed using the bootstrap resampling technique like. In assessing statistical significance, all hypotheses were supported. The coefficient of determination (R ²) was high or average in five of the six endogenous variables, so the model explains 47.3% of the variation in behavioral intention. It is noteworthy that among the antecedents of behavioral intention (BI) analyzed in this study, perceived usefulness is the variable that has a greater effect on behavioral intention, followed by ease of use (PEU) and attitude (AT). Among the organizational aspects (critical success factors) studied technological complexity (TC) and training (ERT) were those with greatest effect on behavioral intention to use, although these effects were lower than those produced by behavioral factors (originating from TAM). It is pointed out further that the support of senior management (TMS) showed, among all variables, the least effect on the intention to use (BI) and was followed by communications (COM) and cooperation (CO), which exert a low effect on behavioral intention (BI). Therefore, as other studies on the TAM constructs were adequate for the present research. Thus, the study contributed towards proving evidence that the Technology Acceptance Model can be applied to predict the acceptance of integrated management systems, even in public. Keywords: Technology

Otimização do processo de síntese do aluminato de cobalto via método de polimerização de complexos (MPC) através do planejamento fatorial fracionado

In the ceramics industry are becoming more predominantly inorganic nature pigments. Studies in this area allow you to develop pigments with more advanced properties and qualities to be used in the industrial context. Studies on synthesis and characterization of cobalt aluminate has been widely researched, cobalt aluminate behavior at different temperatures of calcinations, highlighting especially the temperatures of 700, 800 and 900° C that served as a basis in the development of this study, using the method of polymerization of complex (CPM), economic, and this method applied in ceramic pigment synthesis. The procedure was developed from a fractional factorial design 2 (5-2) in order to optimize the process of realization of the cobalt aluminate (CoAl2O4), having as response surfaces the batch analysis data of Uv-vis spectroscopy conducted from the statistic software 7.0, for this were chosen five factors as input variables: citric acid (stoichiometric manner), puff or pyrolysis time (h), temperature (° C), and calcinations (° C/min), at levels determined for this study. By applying statistics in the process of obtaining the CoAl2O4 is possible the study of these factors and which may have greater influence in getting the synthesis. The pigments characterized TG/DSC analyses, and x-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscope (SEM/EDS) in order to establish the structural and morphological aspects of pigment CoAl2O4, among the factors studied it were found to statically with increasing calcinations temperature 700°< 800 <900 °C, the bands of Uv-vis decrease with increasing intensity of absorbance and that with increasing time of puff or pyrolysis (h) there is an increase in bands of Uv-vis proportionally, the generated model set for the conditions proposed in this study because the coefficient of determination can explain about 99.9% of the variance (R²), response surfaces generated were satisfactory, so it s possible applicability in the ceramics industry of pigments

Estimativa da área foliar do antúrio com o uso de funções de regressão

O presente trabalho teve como objetivo determinar quais variáveis dimensionais da folha são mais adequadas para utilização na estimativa da área foliar do antúrio (Anthurium andraeanum), cv. Apalai, por meio de equação de regressão linear, e comparar o desempenho de diferentes funções de regressão obtidas com o uso de aprendizado de máquina (AM). A variável que melhor estimou a área foliar foi o produto das dimensões lineares (comprimento e largura), CxL, sendo a equação proposta Af = 0.9672 *C x L, com coeficiente de determinação (R²) de 0,99. Verificou-se, também, com o uso de AM, que as funções lineares são mais adequadas para a estimação da área foliar dessa espécie vegetal.

Modeling upper eyelid kinematics during spontaneous and reflex blinks

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Desenvolvimento e validação de modelo de previsão para mancha preta dos citros em função de variáveis meteorológicas

A mancha preta dos citros é uma doença causada pelo fungo Guignardia citricarpa que produz lesões em frutos em variedades de laranja doce comerciais, causando a queda precoce dos frutos, diminuindo a produtividade e levando a sua depreciação para o mercado de fruta fresca. O objetivo do trabalho foi desenvolver e validar um modelo de favorabilidade climática da mancha preta dos citros relacionado a ocorrência dos sintomas da doença no Estado de São Paulo. Desenvolveu-se um sistema empírico com base em um banco de dados da ocorrência da doença e das condições climáticas, em campo, nos municípios de Barretos/SP e Gavião Peixoto/SP, durante as Safras 2007/2008 e 2008/2009. A variedade de laranjeira doce utilizada nos experimentos foi a 'Valência' enxertada sobre limoeiro 'Cravo', com 10 anos de idade. Para a incidência da mancha preta foi avaliada a porcentagem de frutos com sintomas na planta e para a severidade, a porcentagem de casca lesionada por fruto. Na análise de regressão as variáveis climáticas e os dados de intensidade de doença de Barretos foram selecionados no procedimento 'stepwise'. As melhores equações de regressão foram selecionadas pelo coeficiente de determinação (R²) e pela significância da regressão no teste F (P < 0,05 e P < 0,01) que resultou na equação Y= -502,43 + 9,61 X10 + 4,78 X30 + 0,54 X46 - 7,9 X50 em que Y=Índice de Favorabilidade, X10 é a temperatura média, X30 é a umidade relativa média, X46 é o molhamento foliar e X50 é a temperatura média durante o molhamento foliar, determinados com dados de intervalos de sete dias. Procedeu-se a validação no campo no município de Gavião Peixoto durante a Safra 2008/2009, realizando a correlação entre a incidência e severidade observadas no experimento e os dados previstos que foram os determinados pela equação, sendo que a correlação mostrou-se positiva para a incidência da doença com um R²=0,87.

A simple and non-destructive model for individual leaf area estimation in citrus

Introduction. Leaf area is often related to plant growth, development, physiology and yield. Many non-destructive models have been proposed for leaf area estimation of several plant genotypes, demonstrating that leaf length, leaf width and leaf area are closely correlated. Thus, the objective of our study was to develop a reliable model for leaf area estimation from linear measurements of leaf dimensions for citrus genotypes. Materials and methods. Leaves of citrus genotypes were harvested, and their dimensions (length, width and area) were measured. Values of leaf area were regressed against length, width, the square of length, the square of width and the product (length x width). The most accurate equations, either linear or second-order polynomial, were regressed again with a new data set; then the most reliable equation was defined. Results and discussion. The first analysis showed that the variables length, width and the square of length gave better results in second-order polynomial equations, while the linear equations were more suitable and accurate when the width and the product (length x width) were used. When these equations were regressed with the new data set, the coefficient of determination (R(2)) and the agreement index 'd' were higher for the one that used the variable product (length x width), while the Mean Absolute Percentage Error was lower. Conclusion. The product of the simple leaf dimensions (length x width) can provide a reliable and simple non-destructive model for leaf area estimation across citrus genotypes.

Comparação de alguns modelos matemáticos para ajuste à curva de lactação média de um rebanho da raça Caracu

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comparação de alguns modelos matemáticos para o ajuste às curvas de lactação individuais de vacas da raça Caracu

Foram ajustadas 7239 curvas de lactação de vacas Caracu, controladas semanalmente entre os anos de 1978 a 1988, pertencentes à Fazenda Chiqueirão, Poços de Caldas, MG. As funções utilizadas foram a linear hiperbólica (FLH), a quadrática logarítmica (FQL), a gama incompleta (FGI) e a polinomial inversa (FPI). Os parâmetros foram estimados por meio de regressões não lineares, usando-se processos iterativos. A verificação da qualidade do ajuste baseou-se no coeficiente de determinação ajustado (R²A), no teste de Durbin-Watson (DW) e nas médias e desvios-padrão estimados para os parâmetros e funções dos parâmetros dos modelos. Para a curva média, os R²A foram superiores a 0,90 para todas as funções. Bons ajustes, baseados nos R²A>0,80 foram obtidos, respectivamente, por 25,2%, 39,1%, 31,1% e 28,4% das lactações ajustadas pelas funções FLH, FQL, FGI e FPI. de acordo com o teste de DW, bons ajustes foram proporcionados para 29,4% das lactações ajustadas pela FLH, 54,9% pela FQL, 34,9% pela FGI e 29,6% pela FPI. Para ambos os critérios, a FQL foi superior às demais funções, indicando grande variação nas formas das curvas de lactação geradas pelos ajustes individuais. Curvas atípicas foram estimadas pelas funções, com picos ocorrendo antes do parto e algumas vezes após o término da lactação. Todas as funções apresentaram problemas quando ajustaram dados individuais.

Equações de predição da composição química corporal a partir do corte da 9-10-11ª costelas de bovinos castrados Nelore

Objetivou-se obter equações de regressão linear simples para estimativa da composição química corporal de novilhos Nelore a partir da composição química do corte da 9-10-11ª costelas. Foram utilizados 27 bovinos em confinamento, com 21 a 31 meses de idade e 338,0 a 503,6 kg de peso corporal. do total, foram abatidos seis animais (referência) ao início do experimento para estimativa da composição química corporal. A composição química em água, proteína, EE e cinzas foi determinada no corte da 9-10-11ª costelas e nos tecidos corporais. As equações de regressão para estimativa do peso de corpo vazio (PCVZ) a partir dos pesos de jejum (PV) e carcaça quente (PCQ) foram PCVZ = 0,8726 PV - 2,7399 e PCVZ = 1,5350 PCQ + 13,598 (R² = 0,98). O ganho de 1 kg de PCVZ correspondeu a aproximadamente 1,15 kg de PV. A porcentagem de água no corpo vazio (CVz) esteve altamente correlacionada às porcentagens de água (R² = 0,98) e EE (R² = 0,91) no corte das costelas. A equação mais indicada foi a desenvolvida a partir da porcentagem de água no corte das costelas (Sx, y = 0,46). Verificou-se alta correlação entre a porcentagem de EE no CVz e a porcentagem de EE (R² = 0,95) no corte das costelas, portanto, a equação %EE CVz = 0,9662%EE costelas + 1,5294 pode ser utilizada para estimativa da composição do CVz em EE. O mesmo ocorreu para a porcentagem de cinzas, sendo recomendada a equação %MM CVz = 0,5915%MM costelas + 0,7619 (R² = 0,88). A composição química percentual em água, EE e minerais no corte das 9-10-11ª costelas permitiu estimar com acuidade a composição do corpo vazio.

Germinação de sementes armazenadas de guandu

O guandu (Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp) é uma leguminosa arbustiva utilizada para adubação verde e como forrageira; seus grãos ricos em proteína servem de alimento animal e humano. No presente experimento objetivou-se estudar o comportamento da germinação de sementes de guandu de dois cultivares (um com e outro sem sementes duras) durante o armazenamento. As sementes recém-colhidas foram embaladas em sacos de papel e armazenadas durante seis anos em condições ambientais de laboratório, sem controle de temperatura e umidade relativa do ar. Logo após a colheita e depois anualmente, foi determinado o teor de água das sementes e realizado o teste de germinação. Os dados de germinação foram submetidos à análise estatística, em delineamento inteiramente ao acaso, considerando as sete avaliações durante o armazenamento como tratamentos, com quatro repetições. As análises de variância foram realizadas separadamente para cada cultivar e a seguir feita análise conjunta. Equações de regressão foram calculadas, escolhendo-se aquelas com melhor ajuste e maior coeficiente de determinação (R²). As sementes das duas cultivares se mantiveram viáveis durante três anos de armazenamento com germinação acima de 70%, seguido de queda, para no sexto ano estar próxima a 10%. A presença de sementes duras ocasiona diferença na germinação dos cultivares no transcorrer do período de armazenamento.

Avaliação da Qualidade da Água do rio Pitimbu

The Pitimbu River Basin is concern reason, therefore this is one of the mains freshwater sources for the Natal city supplying. The Pitimbu waters river flow into Jiqui pond, as the main supplier of this, that supplies 16% of Natal population and there is a bigger importance despite the supplying of a parcel of Natal city made joining underground waters with the water proceeding from the Jiqui pond, being used for dilution waters of contaminated wells with nitrate. Even with the importance of the Pitimbu, there is a strong pressure of occupation of its edge according to a critical urban growth, becoming the situation worse and increasing the necessity of management of the use and occupation of the ground and keeping the control of the prompt pollution, as punctual as diffuse. There are many studies about Pitimbu River Basin, however they summarize themselves to some months or even in a few years. This work, that gathers these information, increasing the amplitude and making possible an evaluation of the attitude of the water in a period extended for an evaluation of values of variable quality of water referring to the standards, that usually happens about the variable frequency distribution, central tendency and measures of dispersion, as the coefficient of variation, coefficient of skewness and the coefficient of determination of certain variable on another one. This work to evaluates the quality conditions of the Pitimbu river waters by analyzing thirty five (35) variables Physical, chemical and biological in eight (8) points of water course since 1993 to 2007. Given this situation, all knowledge about the waters quality conditions obtained in this work, is a strong subsidy for management of use and ground occupation, considering the river basin as territorial unit of management, and as the water is public good domain, being a priority human use, It is necessary to guarantee to current and the future generations available water resources in appropriate standards of quality as the established standard and identifying possible reasons of pollution through statistics analysis

Atributos polarimétricos de imagem radar na inferência de parâmetros morfológicos de macrófitas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)