Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Differentiation of focal liver lesions: usefulness of parametric imaging with contrast-enhanced US.

Purpose: To evaluate whether parametric imaging with contrast material-enhanced ultrasonography (US) is superior to visual assessment for the differential diagnosis of focal liver lesions (FLLs). Materials and Methods: This study had institutional review board approval, and verbal patient informed consent was obtained. Between August 2005 and October 2008, 146 FLLs in 145 patients (63 women, 82 men; mean age, 62.5 years; age range, 22-89 years) were imaged with real-time low-mechanical-index contrast-enhanced US after a bolus injection of 2.4 mL of a second-generation contrast agent. Clips showing contrast agent uptake kinetics (including arterial, portal, and late phases) were recorded and subsequently analyzed off-line with dedicated image processing software. Analysis of the dynamic vascular patterns (DVPs) of lesions with respect to adjacent parenchyma allowed mapping DVP signatures on a single parametric image. Cine loops of contrast-enhanced US and results from parametric imaging of DVP were assessed separately by three independent off-site readers who classified each lesion as benign, malignant, or indeterminate. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for both techniques. Interobserver agreement (κ statistics) was determined. Results: Sensitivities for visual interpretation of cine loops for the three readers were 85.0%, 77.9%, and 87.6%, which improved significantly to 96.5%, 97.3%, and 96.5% for parametric imaging, respectively (P < .05, McNemar test), while retaining high specificity (90.9% for all three readers). Accuracy scores of parametric imaging were higher than those of conventional contrast-enhanced US for all three readers (P < .001, McNemar test). Interobserver agreement increased with DVP parametric imaging compared with conventional contrast-enhanced US (change of κ from 0.54 to 0.99). Conclusion: Parametric imaging of DVP improves diagnostic performance of contrast-enhanced US in the differentiation between malignant and benign FLLs; it also provides excellent interobserver agreement.

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Ultrasound evaluation of synovitis in RA: Correlation with clinical disease activity and sensitivity to change in an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the correlation between clinical measures of disease activity and a ultrasound (US) scoring system for synovitis applied by many different ultrasonographers in a daily routine care setting within the Swiss registry for RA (SCQM) and further to determine the sensitivity to change of this US Score. METHODS: One hundred and eight Swiss rheumatologists were trained in performing the Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism (SONAR) score. US B-mode and Power Doppler (PwD) scores were correlated with DAS28 and compared between the clinical categories in a cross-sectional cohort of patients. In patients with a second US (longitudinal cohort), we investigated if change in US score correlated with change in DAS and evaluated the responsiveness of both methods. RESULTS: In the cross-sectional cohort with 536 patients, correlation between the B-mode score and DAS28 was significant but modest (Pearson coefficient r=0.41, P<0.0001). The same was true for the PwD score (r=0.41, P<0.0001). In the longitudinal cohort with 183 patients we also found a significant correlation between change in B-mode and in PwD score with change in DAS28 (r=0.54, P<0.0001 and r=0.46, P<0.0001, respectively). Both methods of evaluation (DAS and US) showed similar responsiveness according to standardized response mean (SRM). CONCLUSIONS: The SONAR Score is practicable and was applied by many rheumatologists in daily routine care after initial training. It demonstrates significant correlations with the degree of as well as change in disease activity as measured by DAS. On the level of the individual, the US score shows many discrepancies and overlapping results exist.

Timing of Capacity Change: Models for Capital Intensive Industry

The suitable timing of capacity investments is a remarkable issue especially in capital intensive industries. Despite its importance, fairly few studies have been published on the topic. In the present study models for the timing of capacity change in capital intensive industry are developed. The study considers mainly the optimal timing of single capacity changes. The review of earlier research describes connections between cost, capacity and timing literature, and empirical examples are used to describe the starting point of the study and to test the developed models. The study includes four models, which describe the timing question from different perspectives. The first model, which minimizes unit costs, has been built for capacity expansion and replacement situations. It is shown that the optimal timing of an investment can be presented with the capacity and cost advantage ratios. After the unit cost minimization model the view is extended to the direction of profit maximization. The second model states that early investments are preferable if the change of fixed costs is small compared to the change of the contribution margin. The third model is a numerical discounted cash flow model, which emphasizes the roles of start-up time, capacity utilization rate and value of waiting as drivers of the profitable timing of a project. The last model expands the view from project level to company level and connects the flexibility of assets and cost structures to the timing problem. The main results of the research are the solutions of the models and analysis or simulations done with the models. The relevance and applicability of the results are verified by evaluating the logic of the models and by numerical cases.

Creating generation Y sources of motivation for enhanced performance

New challenges have been created in the modern work environment as the diversity of the workforce is greater than ever in terms of generations. There will become a large demand of generation Y employees as the baby boomer generation employees retire at an accelerated rate. The purpose of this study is to investigate Y generation specific characteristics and to identify motivational systems to enhance performance. The research questions are: 1. What are Y generation characteristics? 2. What motivational systems organizations can form to motivate Y generation employees and in turn, create better performance? The Y generation specific characteristics identified from the literature include; achievement oriented; confident; educated; multitasking; having a need for feedback; needing management support; sociable and tech savvy. The proposed motivational systems can be found in four areas of the organization; HRM, training and development, communication and decision making policies. Three focus groups were held to investigate what would motivate generation Y employees to achieve better performance. Two of these focus groups were Finnish natives and the third consisted of international students. The HRM systems included flexibility and a culture of fun. It was concluded that flexibility within the workplace and role was a great source of motivation. Culture of fun was not responded to as favorably although most focus group participants rated enjoyableness as one of their top motivating factors. Training and development systems include training programs and mentoring as sources of potential motivation. Training programs were viewed as a mode to gain a better position and were not necessarily seen as motivational systems. Mentoring programs were not concluded to have a significant effect on motivation. Communication systems included keeping up with technology, clarity and goals as well as feedback. Keeping up with technology was seen as an ineffective tool to motivate. Clarity and goal setting was seen as very important to be able to perform but not necessarily motivating. Feedback had a highly motivating effect on these focus groups. Decision making policies included collaboration and teamwork as well as ownership. Teams were familiar and meet the social needs of Y generation employees and are motivating. Ownership was equated with trust and responsibility and was highly valued as well as motivating to these focus group participants.

Indole ring oxidation by activated leukocytes prevents the production of hypochlorous acid

Hypochlorous acid (HOCl) released by activated leukocytes has been implicated in the tissue damage that characterizes chronic inflammatory diseases. In this investigation, 14 indole derivatives, including metabolites such as melatonin, tryptophan and indole-3-acetic acid, were screened for their ability to inhibit the generation of this endogenous oxidant by stimulated leukocytes. The release of HOCl was measured by the production of taurine-chloramine when the leukocytes (2 x 10(6) cells/mL) were incubated at 37ºC in 10 mM phosphate-buffered saline, pH 7.4, for 30 min with 5 mM taurine and stimulated with 100 nM phorbol-12-myristate acetate. Irrespective of the group substituted in the indole ring, all the compounds tested including indole, 2-methylindole, 3-methylindole, 2,3-dimethylindole, 2,5-dimethylindole, 2-phenylindole, 5-methoxyindole, 6-methoxyindole, 5-methoxy-2-methylindole, melatonin, tryptophan, indole-3-acetic acid, 5-methoxy-2-methyl-3-indole-acetic acid, and indomethacin (10 µM) inhibited the chlorinating activity of myeloperoxidase (MPO) in the 23-72% range. The compounds 3-methylindole and indole-3-acetic acid were chosen as representative of indole derivatives in a dose-response study using purified MPO. The IC50 obtained were 0.10 ± 0.03 and 5.0 ± 1.0 µM (N = 13), respectively. These compounds did not affect the peroxidation activity of MPO or the production of superoxide anion by stimulated leukocytes. By following the spectral change of MPO during the enzyme turnover, the inhibition of HOCl production can be explained on the basis of the accumulation of the redox form compound-II (MPO-II), which is an inactive chlorinating species. These results show that indole derivatives are effective and selective inhibitors of MPO-chlorinating activity.

A comparative study of the change in diatom inferred ph of a staircase of lakes in the Algoma District, Northern Ontario /

Four staircase lakes occupying a single watershed located in the Algoma District, north of Lake Superior were chosen for this study. I examined the subfossil diatom assemblage in the top twenty centimeters of the surface sediments in each of these four lakes in an attempt to reconstruct their respective past pH history. From these analyses it was possible to test the hypothesis that the rate of change of diatom inferred pH was not significantly different in lakes located one below the other in a single "staircase" within a single watershed system. My results indicated that the four Z lakes had been acid for at least the last century. The water color of the three upper Z lakes (Z1, Z2 and Z3) was brown (>30 Pt Co units). The bottom lake (Z4) was the only clear water lake in the system «5 Pt Co units). This bottom staircase lake had no muskeg development around its shoreline. The alkaliphilous diatoms in the Z watershed system were important in determining the diatom inferred pH of the four Z lakes. The centric diatoms were extremely rare in the clearwater bottom lake (Z4). The ecology of the Eupodiscales is perhaps important in the interpretation of sediment in the more acid environment. Lake Z4 was the only one that had a progressive as well as a significant decrease in its downcore diatom inferred pH since the early 1960's. This lead me to speculate that the humic substances present in the upper three brown water lakes (Z1, Z2 and Z3) were perhaps Important in buffering them against a further decrease in water pH even though they were located within an area which was sensitive to acid precipitation.

The Impact of a Corporate Name Change on Stock Price and Trading Volume of Canadian Companies

This thesis examines the impact of a corporate name change on stock price and trading volume of Canadian companies around the announcement date, the approval date, and the adoption date over the time period from 1997 to 2011. Name changes are classified into six categories: major and minor, structural and pure, diversified and focused, accompanied with a change in ticker symbol and without a change in ticker symbol, “Gold” name addition and deletion, and different reasons for name changes (e.g., merger and acquisition, change of structure, change of strategy, and better image). The thesis uses the standard event study methodology to perform abnormal return and trading volume analyses. In addition, regression analysis is employed to examine which type of a name change has the largest impact on cumulative abnormal returns. Sample stocks exhibit a significant positive abnormal return one-day prior to the approval day and one day after the adoption date. Around the approval date we observe significant abnormal returns for stocks with a structural name change. On the day after the adoption date we document abnormal returns for stocks with major, minor, structural, pure, focused, and ticker symbol name changes. If a merger or acquisition is the reason for a name change, companies tend to experience a significant positive abnormal return one-day before the approval date and on the adoption date. If a change of structure is the reason for a name change, companies exhibit a significant positive abnormal return on the approval date and a significant negative abnormal return on the adoption date. In case of a change of strategy as the reason for a name change, companies show a significant negative abnormal return around the approval date and a significant positive abnormal return around the adoption date.

Realization of a Scanning Photoacoustic Technique: Thermal properties of Bulk and Film Samples

Among the large number of photothcrmal techniques available, photoacoustics assumes a very significant place because of its essential simplicity and the variety of applications it finds in science and technology. The photoacoustic (PA) effect is the generation of an acoustic signal when a sample, kept inside an enclosed volume, is irradiated by an intensity modulated beam of radiation. The radiation absorbed by the sample is converted into thermal waves by nonradiative de-excitation processes. The propagating thermal waves cause a corresponding expansion and contraction of the gas medium surrounding the sample, which in tum can be detected as sound waves by a sensitive microphone. These sound waves have the same frequency as the initial modulation frequency of light. Lock-in detection method enables one to have a sufficiently high signal to noise ratio for the detected signal. The PA signal amplitude depends on the optical absorption coefficient of the sample and its thermal properties. The PA signal phase is a function of the thermal diffusivity of the sample.Measurement of the PA amplitude and phase enables one to get valuable information about the thermal and optical properties of the sample. Since the PA signal depends on the optical and thennal properties of the sample, their variation will get reflected in the PA signal. Therefore, if the PA signal is collected from various points on a sample surface it will give a profile of the variations in the optical/thennal properties across the sample surface. Since the optical and thermal properties are affected by the presence of defects, interfaces, change of material etc. these will get reflected in the PA signal. By varying the modulation frequency, we can get information about the subsurface features also. This is the basic principle of PA imaging or PA depth profiling. It is a quickly expanding field with potential applications in thin film technology, chemical engineering, biology, medical diagnosis etc. Since it is a non-destructive method, PA imaging has added advantages over some of the other imaging techniques. A major part of the work presented in this thesis is concemed with the development of a PA imaging setup that can be used to detect the presence of surface and subsmface defects in solid samples.Determination of thermal transport properties such as thermal diffusivity, effusivity, conductivity and heat capacity of materials is another application of photothennal effect. There are various methods, depending on the nature of the sample, to determine these properties. However, there are only a few methods developed to determine all these properties simultaneously. Even though a few techniques to determine the above thermal properties individually for a coating can be found in literature, no technique is available for the simultaneous measurement of these parameters for a coating. We have developed a scanning photoacoustic technique that can be used to determine all the above thermal transport properties simultaneously in the case of opaque coatings such as paints. Another work that we have presented in this thesis is the determination of thermal effusivity of many bulk solids by a scanning photoacoustic technique. This is one of the very few methods developed to determine thermal effiisivity directly.

Technical instruments and conceptual definitions: theoretical and practical implications of the change on the definition of unemployment in Colombia

En junio de 2000 el Departamento Nacional de Estadística de Colombia adopto una nueva definición de medición de desempleo siguiendo los estándares sugeridos por la organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT). El cambio de definición implico una reducción de la tasa de desempleo en cerca de dos puntos porcentuales. En este documento contrastamos la experiencia colombiana con otra experiencias internacionales, y analizamos las implicaciones empíricas y teóricas de este cambio de definición usando dos tipos de estimaciones cuantitativas: en la primera se contrasta las principales características de las diferentes categorías clasificadas según la definición nueva y vieja de desempleo (empleado, desempleado y fuera de la fuerza laboral) usando el algoritmo EM; en la segunda se pone a prueba la implicación del desempleo estructural y su relación con el perfil educacional de personas desempleadas y las características teóricas que enfrentan los estándares de la OIT en la definición de empleo.

Exploring behavioural change through an agent-oriented system dynamics model: the use of personal protective equipment among pesticide applicators in Colombia

The misuse of Personal Protective Equipment results in health risk among smallholders in developing countries, and education is often proposed to promote safer practices. However, evidence point to limited effects of education. This paper presents a System Dynamics model which allows the identification of risk-minimizing policies for behavioural change. The model is based on the IAC framework and survey data. It represents farmers' decision-making from an agent-oriented standpoint. The most successful intervention strategy was the one which intervened in the long term, targeted key stocks in the systems and was diversified. However, the results suggest that, under these conditions, no policy is able to trigger a self sustaining behavioural change. Two implementation approaches were suggested by experts. One, based on constant social control, corresponds to a change of the current model's parameters. The other, based on participation, would lead farmers to new thinking, i.e. changes in their decision-making structure.

Forecasting extinction risk of ectotherms under climate warming: an evolutionary perspective

1. It has been postulated that climate warming may pose the greatest threat species in the tropics, where ectotherms have evolved more thermal specialist physiologies. Although species could rapidly respond to environmental change through adaptation, little is known about the potential for thermal adaptation, especially in tropical species. 2. In the light of the limited empirical evidence available and predictions from mutation-selection theory, we might expect tropical ectotherms to have limited genetic variance to enable adaptation. However, as a consequence of thermodynamic constraints, we might expect this disadvantage to be at least partially offset by a fitness advantage, that is, the ‘hotter-is-better’ hypothesis. 3. Using an established quantitative genetics model and metabolic scaling relationships, we integrate the consequences of the opposing forces of thermal specialization and thermodynamic constraints on adaptive potential by evaluating extinction risk under climate warming. We conclude that the potential advantage of a higher maximal development rate can in theory more than offset the potential disadvantage of lower genetic variance associated with a thermal specialist strategy. 4. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk are fundamentally very sensitive to estimates of generation time and genetic variance. However, our qualitative conclusion that the relative risk of extinction is likely to be lower for tropical species than for temperate species is robust to assumptions regarding the effects of effective population size, mutation rate and birth rate per capita. 5. With a view to improving ecological forecasts, we use this modelling framework to review the sensitivity of our predictions to the model’s underpinning theoretical assumptions and the empirical basis of macroecological patterns that suggest thermal specialization and fitness increase towards the tropics. We conclude by suggesting priority areas for further empirical research.

The benefits of a compute cluster approach to high spatial resolution biodiversity richness modelling: projecting the impact of climate change on Mediterranean flora

High spatial resolution environmental data gives us a better understanding of the environmental factors affecting plant distributions at fine spatial scales. However, large environmental datasets dramatically increase compute times and output species model size stimulating the need for an alternative computing solution. Cluster computing offers such a solution, by allowing both multiple plant species Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) and individual tiles of high spatial resolution models to be computed concurrently on the same compute cluster. We apply our methodology to a case study of 4,209 species of Mediterranean flora (around 17% of species believed present in the biome). We demonstrate a 16 times speed-up of ENM computation time when 16 CPUs were used on the compute cluster. Our custom Java ‘Merge’ and ‘Downsize’ programs reduce ENM output files sizes by 94%. The median 0.98 test AUC score of species ENMs is aided by various species occurrence data filtering techniques. Finally, by calculating the percentage change of individual grid cell values, we map the projected percentages of plant species vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean region between 1950–2000 and 2020.

A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate cahgne projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.