The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

44 p.

Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK

21 p.

Simulations and mechanisms of subtropical low-cloud response to climate change

This thesis focuses on improving the simulation skills and the theoretical understanding of the subtropical low cloud response to climate change.

First, an energetically consistent forcing framework is designed and implemented for the large eddy simulation (LES) of the low-cloud response to climate change. The three representative current-day subtropical low cloud regimes of cumulus (Cu), cumulus-over-stratocumulus, and stratocumulus (Sc) are all well simulated with this framework, and results are comparable to the conventional fixed-SST approach. However, the cumulus response to climate warming subject to energetic constraints differs significantly from the conventional approach with fixed SST. Under the energetic constraint, the subtropics warm less than the tropics, since longwave (LW) cooling is more efficient with the drier subtropical free troposphere. The surface latent heat flux (LHF) also increases only weakly subject to the surface energetic constraint. Both factors contribute to an increased estimated inversion strength (EIS), and decreased inversion height. The decreased Cu-depth contributes to a decrease of liquid water path (LWP) and weak positive cloud feedback. The conventional fixed-SST approach instead simulates a strong increase in LHF and deepening of the Cu layer, leading to a weakly negative cloud feedback. This illustrates the importance of energetic constraints to the simulation and understanding of the sign and magnitude of low-cloud feedback.

Second, an extended eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) closure for the unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence and convection processes in general circulation models (GCM) is presented. The inclusion of prognostic terms and the elimination of the infinitesimal updraft fraction assumption makes it more flexible for implementation in models across different scales. This framework can be consistently extended to formulate multiple updrafts and downdrafts, as well as variances and covariances. It has been verified with LES in different boundary layer regimes in the current climate, and further development and implementation of this closure may help to improve our simulation skills and understanding of low-cloud feedback through GCMs.

Formal languages, part theory, and change

A general definition of interpreted formal language is presented. The notion “is a part of" is formally developed and models of the resulting part theory are used as universes of discourse of the formal languages. It is shown that certain Boolean algebras are models of part theory.

With this development, the structure imposed upon the universe of discourse by a formal language is characterized by a group of automorphisms of the model of part theory. If the model of part theory is thought of as a static world, the automorphisms become the changes which take place in the world. Using this formalism, we discuss a notion of abstraction and the concept of definability. A Galois connection between the groups characterizing formal languages and a language-like closure over the groups is determined.

It is shown that a set theory can be developed within models of part theory such that certain strong formal languages can be said to determine their own set theory. This development is such that for a given formal language whose universe of discourse is a model of part theory, a set theory can be imbedded as a submodel of part theory so that the formal language has parts which are sets as its discursive entities.

Proposal and validation of methodologies for the categorisation of continuous variables in the development of prediction models

158 p.

Isotropic constitutive models for metallic foams

The yield behaviour of two aluminum alloy foams (Alporas and Duocel) has been investigated for a range of axisymmetric compressive stress states. The initial yield surface has been measured, and the evolution of the yield surface has been explored for uniaxial and hydrostatic stress paths. It is found that the hydrostatic yield strength is of similar magnitude to the uniaxial yield strength. The yield surfaces are of quadratic shape in the stress space of mean stress versus effective stress, and evolve without corner formation. Two phenomenological isotropic constitutive models for the plastic behaviour are proposed. The first is based on a geometrically self-similar yield surface while the second is more complex and allows for a change in shape of the yield surface due to differential hardening along the hydrostatic and deviatoric axes. Good agreement is observed between the experimentally measured stress versus strain responses and the predictions of the models.

The role of adaptive thermal comfort in the prediction of the thermal performance of a modern mixed-mode office building in the UK under climate change

Climate change is becoming a serious issue for the construction industry, since the time scales at which climate change takes place can be expected to show a true impact on the thermal performance of buildings and HVAC systems. In predicting this future building performance by means of building simulation, the underlying assumptions regarding thermal comfort conditions and the related heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) control set points become important. This article studies the thermal performance of a reference office building with mixedmode ventilation in the UK, using static and adaptive thermal approaches, for a series of time horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). Results demonstrate the importance of the implementation of adaptive thermal comfort models, and underpin the case for its use in climate change impact studies. Adaptive thermal comfort can also be used by building designers to make buildings more resilient towards change. © 2010 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

How are internal models of unstable tasks formed?

The results of recent studies suggest that humans can form internal models that they use in a feedforward manner to compensate for both stable and unstable dynamics. To examine how internal models are formed, we performed adaptation experiments in novel dynamics, and measured the endpoint force, trajectory and EMG during learning. Analysis of reflex feedback and change of feedforward commands between consecutive trials suggested a unified model of motor learning, which can coherently unify the learning processes observed in stable and unstable dynamics and reproduce available data on motor learning. To our knowledge, this algorithm, based on the concurrent minimization of (reflex) feedback and muscle activation, is also the first nonlinear adaptive controller able to stabilize unstable dynamics.

Unified modelling in support of organization design and change

The aim of this research is to provide a unified modelling-based method to help with the evaluation of organization design and change decisions. Relevant literature regarding model-driven organization design and change is described. This helps identify the requirements for a new modelling methodology. Such a methodology is developed and described. The three phases of the developed method include the following. First, the use of CIMOSA-based multi-perspective enterprise modelling to understand and capture the most enduring characteristics of process-oriented organizations and externalize various types of requirement knowledge about any target organization. Second, the use of causal loop diagrams to identify dynamic causal impacts and effects related to the issues and constraints on the organization under study. Third, the use of simulation modelling to quantify the effects of each issue in terms of organizational performance. The design and case study application of a unified modelling method based on CIMOSA (computer integrated manufacturing open systems architecture) enterprise modelling, causal loop diagrams, and simulation modelling, is explored to illustrate its potential to support systematic organization design and change. Further application of the proposed methodology in various company and industry sectors, especially in manufacturing sectors, would be helpful to illustrate complementary uses and relative benefits and drawbacks of the methodology in different types of organization. The proposed unified modelling-based method provides a systematic way of enabling key aspects of organization design and change. The case company, its relevant data, and developed models help to explore and validate the proposed method. The application of CIMOSA-based unified modelling method and integrated application of these three modelling techniques within a single solution space constitutes an advance on previous best practice. Also, the purpose and application domain of the proposed method offers an addition to knowledge. © IMechE 2009.

No evidence for an item limit in change detection.

Change detection is a classic paradigm that has been used for decades to argue that working memory can hold no more than a fixed number of items ("item-limit models"). Recent findings force us to consider the alternative view that working memory is limited by the precision in stimulus encoding, with mean precision decreasing with increasing set size ("continuous-resource models"). Most previous studies that used the change detection paradigm have ignored effects of limited encoding precision by using highly discriminable stimuli and only large changes. We conducted two change detection experiments (orientation and color) in which change magnitudes were drawn from a wide range, including small changes. In a rigorous comparison of five models, we found no evidence of an item limit. Instead, human change detection performance was best explained by a continuous-resource model in which encoding precision is variable across items and trials even at a given set size. This model accounts for comparison errors in a principled, probabilistic manner. Our findings sharply challenge the theoretical basis for most neural studies of working memory capacity.

Landscape change detection of the newly created wetland in Yellow River Delta

Four models are employed in the landscape change detection of the newly created wetland. The models include ones for patch connectivity. ecological diversity, human impact intensity and mean center of land cover. The landscape data of the newly created wetland in Yellow River Delta in 1984, 1991, and 1996 are produced from the unsupervised classification and the supervised classification on the basis of integrating Landsat TM images of the newly created wetland in the four seasons of the each year. The result from operating the models into the data shows that the newly created wetland landscape in Yellow River Delta had a great chance. The driving focus of the change are mainly from natural evolution of the newly created wetland and rapid population growth, especially non-peasant population growth in Yellow River Delta because a considerable amount of oil and gas fields have been found in the Yellow River Delta. For preventing the newly created wetland from more destruction and conserving benign Succession of the ecosystems in the newly created wetland, six measures are suggested on the basis of research results. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Switching Between Discrete and Continuous Process Models to Predict Molecular Genetic Activity

Two kinds of process models have been used in programs that reason about change: Discrete and continuous models. We describe the design and implementation of a qualitative simulator, PEPTIDE, which uses both kinds of process models to predict the behavior of molecular energetic systems. The program uses a discrete process model to simulate both situations involving abrupt changes in quantities and the actions of small numbers of molecules. It uses a continuous process model to predict gradual changes in quantities. A novel technique, called aggregation, allows the simulator to switch between theses models through the recognition and summary of cycles. The flexibility of PEPTIDE's aggregator allows the program to detect cycles within cycles and predict the behavior of complex situations.

The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level

Brian Huntley, Rhys E. Green, Yvonne C. Collingham, Jane K. Hill, Stephen G. Willis , Patrick J. Bartlein, Wolfgang Cramer, Ward J. M. Hagemeijer and Christopher J. Thomas (2004). The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level. Ecology Letters, 7(5), 417-426. Sponsorship: NERC (awards: GR9/3016, GR9/04270, GR3/12542, NER/F/S/2000/00166) / RSPB RAE2008

Interaction strengths and net effects in food web models

Understanding how dynamic ecological communities respond to anthropogenic drivers of change such as habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change and the introduction of alien species requires that there is a theoretical framework able to predict community dynamics. At present there is a lack of empirical data that can be used to inform and test predictive models, which means that much of our knowledge regarding the response of ecological communities to perturbations is obtained from theoretical analyses and simulations. This thesis is composed of two strands of research: an empirical experiment conducted to inform the scaling of intraspecific and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food chain and a series of theoretical analyses on the changes to equilibrium biomass abundances following press perturbations. The empirical experiment is a consequence of the difficulties faced when parameterising the intraspecific interaction strengths in a Lotka-Volterra model. A modification of the dynamic index is used alongside the original dynamic index to estimate intraspecific interactions and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food. The theoretical analyses focused on the effect of press perturbations to focal species on the equilibrium biomass densities of all species in the community; these perturbations allow for the quantification of a species total net effect. It was found that there is a strong and consistent positive relationship between a species body size and its total net effect for a set of 97 synthetic food webs and also for the Ythan Estuary and Tuesday Lake food webs (empirically described food webs). It is shown that ecological constraints (due to allometric scaling) on the magnitude of entries in the community matrix cause the patterns observed in the inverse community matrix and thus explain the relationship between a species body mass and its total net effect in a community.

Reason, risk, and reward: Models for libraries and other stakeholders in an evolving scholarly publishing ecosystem

Scholarly publishing, and scholarly communication more generally, are based on patterns established over many decades and even centuries. Some of these patterns are clearly valuable and intimately related to core values of the academy, but others were based on the exigencies of the past, and new opportunities have brought into question whether it makes sense to persist in supporting old models. New technologies and new publishing models raise the question of how we should fund and operate scholarly publishing and scholarly communication in the future, moving away from a scarcity model based on the exchange of physical goods that restricts access to scholarly literature unless a market-based exchange takes place. This essay describes emerging models that attempt to shift scholarly communication to a more open-access and mission-based approach and that try to retain control of scholarship by academics and the institutions and scholarly societies that support them. It explores changing practices for funding scholarly journals and changing services provided by academic libraries, changes instituted with the end goal of providing more access to more readers, stimulating new scholarship, and removing inefficiencies from a system ready for change. © 2014 by the American Anthropological Association.