Convectively coupled equatorial waves in high resolution Hadley centre climate models

Current global atmospheric models fail to simulate well organised tropical phenomena in which convection interacts with dynamics and physics. A new methodology to identify convectively coupled equatorial waves, developed by NCAS-Climate, has been applied to output from the two latest models of the Met Office/Hadley Centre which have fundamental differences in dynamical formulation. Variability, horizontal and vertical structures, and propagation characteristics of tropical convection and equatorial waves, along with their coupled behaviour in the models are examined and evaluated against a previous comprehensive study of observations. It is shown that, in general, the models perform well for equatorial waves coupled with off-equatorial convection. However they perform poorly for waves coupled with equatorial convection. The vertical structure of the simulated wave is not conducive to energy conversion/growth and does not support the correct physical-dynamical coupling that occurs in the real world. The following figure shows an example of the Kelvin wave coupled with equatorial convection. It shows that the models fail to simulate a key feature of convectively coupled Kelvin wave in observations, namely near surface anomalous equatorial zonal winds together with intensified equatorial convection and westerly winds in phase with the convection. The models are also not able to capture the observed vertical tilt structure and the vertical propagation of the Kelvin wave into the lower stratosphere as well as the secondary peak in the mid-troposphere, particularly in HadAM3. These results can be used to provide a test-bed for experimentation to improve the coupling of physics and dynamics in climate and weather models.

Consistent approximate models of the global atmosphere: shallow, deep, hydrostatic, quasi-hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic

We study global atmosphere models that are at least as accurate as the hydrostatic primitive equations (HPEs), reviewing known results and reporting some new ones. The HPEs make spherical geopotential and shallow atmosphere approximations in addition to the hydrostatic approximation. As is well known, a consistent application of the shallow atmosphere approximation requires omission of those Coriolis terms that vary as the cosine of latitude and of certain other terms in the components of the momentum equation. An approximate model is here regarded as consistent if it formally preserves conservation principles for axial angular momentum, energy and potential vorticity, and (following R. Müller) if its momentum component equations have Lagrange's form. Within these criteria, four consistent approximate global models, including the HPEs themselves, are identified in a height-coordinate framework. The four models, each of which includes the spherical geopotential approximation, correspond to whether the shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic (or quasi-hydrostatic) approximations are individually made or not made. Restrictions on representing the spatial variation of apparent gravity occur. Solution methods and the situation in a pressure-coordinate framework are discussed. © Crown copyright 2005.

Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: the MarQUEST experience

The MarQUEST (Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Modelling Initiative in QUEST) project was established to develop improved descriptions of marine biogeochemistry, suited for the next generation of Earth system models. We review progress in these areas providing insight on the advances that have been made as well as identifying remaining key outstanding gaps for the development of the marine component of next generation Earth system models. The following issues are discussed and where appropriate results are presented; the choice of model structure, scaling processes from physiology to functional types, the ecosystem model sensitivity to changes in the physical environment, the role of the coastal ocean and new methods for the evaluation and comparison of ecosystem and biogeochemistry models. We make recommendations as to where future investment in marine ecosystem modelling should be focused, highlighting a generic software framework for model development, improved hydrodynamic models, and better parameterisation of new and existing models, reanalysis tools and ensemble simulations. The final challenge is to ensure that experimental/observational scientists are stakeholders in the models and vice versa.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

Chill unit models for blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum L.) cultivars 'Ben Gairn', 'Ben Hope' and 'Ben Tirran'

Temperate-zone crops require a period of winter chilling to terminate dormancy and ensure adequate bud break the following spring. The exact chilling requirement of blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum), a commercially important crop in northern Europe, is relatively unknown. Chill unit models have been successfully utilized to determine the optimum chilling temperature of a range of crops, with one chill unit equating to I h exposure to the optimum temperature for chill satisfaction. Two-year-old R. nigrum plants of the cultivars 'Ben Gairn', 'Ben Hope' and 'Ben Tirran' were exposed to temperatures of -10.1 degrees C. -3.4 degrees C. 0.1 degrees C, 1.5 degrees C, 2.1 degrees C, 3.4 degrees C or 8.9 degrees C (+/- 0.7 degrees C) for durations of 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 or 10 weeks and multiple regression analyses used to determine the optimum temperature for chill satisfaction. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mixture models for capture-recapture count data

The contribution investigates the problem of estimating the size of a population, also known as the missing cases problem. Suppose a registration system is targeting to identify all cases having a certain characteristic such as a specific disease (cancer, heart disease, ...), disease related condition (HIV, heroin use, ...) or a specific behavior (driving a car without license). Every case in such a registration system has a certain notification history in that it might have been identified several times (at least once) which can be understood as a particular capture-recapture situation. Typically, cases are left out which have never been listed at any occasion, and it is this frequency one wants to estimate. In this paper modelling is concentrating on the counting distribution, e.g. the distribution of the variable that counts how often a given case has been identified by the registration system. Besides very simple models like the binomial or Poisson distribution, finite (nonparametric) mixtures of these are considered providing rather flexible modelling tools. Estimation is done using maximum likelihood by means of the EM algorithm. A case study on heroin users in Bangkok in the year 2001 is completing the contribution.

Parametric accelerated failure time models with random effects and an application to kidney transplant survival

Accelerated failure time models with a shared random component are described, and are used to evaluate the effect of explanatory factors and different transplant centres on survival times following kidney transplantation. Different combinations of the distribution of the random effects and baseline hazard function are considered and the fit of such models to the transplant data is critically assessed. A mixture model that combines short- and long-term components of a hazard function is then developed, which provides a more flexible model for the hazard function. The model can incorporate different explanatory variables and random effects in each component. The model is straightforward to fit using standard statistical software, and is shown to be a good fit to the transplant data. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.

Preventive maintenance models with random maintenance quality

In real-world environments it is usually difficult to specify the quality of a preventive maintenance (PM) action precisely. This uncertainty makes it problematic to optimise maintenance policy.-This problem is tackled in this paper by assuming that the-quality of a PM action is a random variable following a probability distribution. Two frequently studied PM models, a failure rate PM model and an age reduction PM model, are investigated. The optimal PM policies are presented and optimised. Numerical examples are also given.

Kinetic models as a route to control acrylamide formation in food

Reports that heat processing of foods induces the formation of acrylamide heightened interest in the chemistry, biochemistry, and safety of this compound. Acrylamide-induced neurotoxicity, reproductive toxicity, genotoxicity, and carcinogenicity are potential human health risks based on animal studies. Because exposure of humans to acrylamide can come from both external sources and the diet, there exists a need to develop a better understanding of its formation and distribution in food and its role in human health. To contribute to this effort, experts from eight countries have presented data on the chemistry, analysis, metabolism, pharmacology, and toxicology of acrylamide. Specifically covered are the following aspects: exposure from the environment and the diet; biomarkers of exposure; risk assessment; epidemiology; mechanism of formation in food; biological alkylation of amino acids, peptides, proteins, and DNA by acrylamide and its epoxide metabolite glycidamide; neurotoxicity, reproductive toxicity, and carcinogenicity; protection against adverse effects; and possible approaches to reducing levels in food. Cross-fertilization of ideas among several disciplines in which an interest in acrylamide has developed, including food science, pharmacology, toxicology, and medicine, will provide a better understanding of the chemistry and biology of acrylamide in food, and can lead to the development of food processes to decrease the acrylamide content of the diet.

A behavioral comparison between motorcyclists and a matched group of non-motorcycling car drivers: factors influencing accident risk

Motorcyclists and a matched group of non-motorcycling car drivers were assessed on behavioral measures known to relate to accident involvement. Using a range of laboratory measures, we found that motorcyclists chose faster speeds than the car drivers, overtook more, and pulled into smaller gaps in traffic, though they did not travel any closer to the vehicle in front. The speed and following distance findings were replicated by two further studies involving unobtrusive roadside observation. We suggest that the increased risk-taking behavior of motorcyclists was only likely to account for a small proportion of the difference in accident risk between motorcyclists and car drivers. A second group of motorcyclists was asked to complete the simulator tests as if driving a car. They did not differ from the non-motorcycling car drivers on the risk-taking measures but were better at hazard perception. There were also no differences for sensation seeking, mild social deviance, and attitudes to riding/driving, indicating that the risk-taking tendencies of motorcyclists did not transfer beyond motorcycling, while their hazard perception skill did. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using continuous ground-based radar and lidar measurements for evaluating the representation of clouds in four operational models

The ability of four operational weather forecast models [ECMWF, Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle model (ARPEGE), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), and Met Office] to generate a cloud at the right location and time (the cloud frequency of occurrence) is assessed in the present paper using a two-year time series of observations collected by profiling ground-based active remote sensors (cloud radar and lidar) located at three different sites in western Europe (Cabauw. Netherlands; Chilbolton, United Kingdom; and Palaiseau, France). Particular attention is given to potential biases that may arise from instrumentation differences (especially sensitivity) from one site to another and intermittent sampling. In a second step the statistical properties of the cloud variables involved in most advanced cloud schemes of numerical weather forecast models (ice water content and cloud fraction) are characterized and compared with their counterparts in the models. The two years of observations are first considered as a whole in order to evaluate the accuracy of the statistical representation of the cloud variables in each model. It is shown that all models tend to produce too many high-level clouds, with too-high cloud fraction and ice water content. The midlevel and low-level cloud occurrence is also generally overestimated, with too-low cloud fraction but a correct ice water content. The dataset is then divided into seasons to evaluate the potential of the models to generate different cloud situations in response to different large-scale forcings. Strong variations in cloud occurrence are found in the observations from one season to the same season the following year as well as in the seasonal cycle. Overall, the model biases observed using the whole dataset are still found at seasonal scale, but the models generally manage to well reproduce the observed seasonal variations in cloud occurrence. Overall, models do not generate the same cloud fraction distributions and these distributions do not agree with the observations. Another general conclusion is that the use of continuous ground-based radar and lidar observations is definitely a powerful tool for evaluating model cloud schemes and for a responsive assessment of the benefit achieved by changing or tuning a model cloud

Increased protein SUMOylation following focal cerebral ischemia

Stroke is a major cause of death and disability, which involves excessive glutamate receptor activation leading to excitotoxic cell death. We recently reported that SUMOylation can regulate kainate receptor (KAR) function. Here we investigated changes in protein SUMOylation and levels of KAR and AMPA receptor subunits in two different animal stroke models: a rat model of focal ischemia with reperfusion and a mouse model without reperfusion. In rats, transient middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) resulted in a striatal and cortical infarct. A dramatic increase in SUMOylation by both SUMO-1 and SUMO-2/3 was observed at 6h and 24h in the striatal infarct area and by SUMO-2/3 at 24h in the hippocampus, which was not directly subjected to ischemia. In mice, permanent MCAO resulted in a selective cortical infarct. No changes in SUMOylation occurred at 6h but there was increased SUMO-1 conjugation in the cortical infarct and non-ischemic hippocampus at 24h after MCAO. Interestingly, SUMOylation by SUMO-2/3 occurred only outside the infarct area. In both rat and mouse levels of KARs were only decreased in the infarct regions whereas AMPARs were decreased in the infarct and in other brain areas. These results suggest that posttranslational modification by SUMO and down-regulation of AMPARs and KARs may play important roles in the pathophysiological response to ischemia.

Response of porcine intestinal in vitro organ culture tissues following exposure to Lactobacillus plantarum JC1 and Salmonella Typhimurium SL1344.

The development of novel intervention strategies for the control of zoonoses caused by bacteria such as Salmonella spp. in livestock requires appropriate experimental models to assess their suitability. Here, a novel porcine intestinal in vitro organ culture (IVOC) model utilizing cell crown (CC) technology (CCIVOC) (Scaffdex) was developed. The CCIVOC model was employed to investigate the characteristics of association of S. enterica serovar Typhimurium strain SL1344 with porcine intestinal tissue following exposure to a Lactobacillus plantarum strain. The association of bacteria to host cells was examined by light microscopy and electron microscopy (EM) after appropriate treatments and staining, while changes in the proteome of porcine jejunal tissues were investigated using quantitative label-free proteomics. Exposure of porcine intestinal mucosal tissues to L. plantarum JC1 did not reduce the numbers of S. Typhimurium bacteria associating to the tissues but was associated with significant (P < 0.005) reductions in the percentages of areas of intestinal IVOC tissues giving positive staining results for acidic mucins. Conversely, the quantity of neutrally charged mucins present within the goblet cells of the IVOC tissues increased significantly (P < 0.05). In addition, tubulin- was expressed at high levels following inoculation of jejunal IVOC tissues with L. plantarum. Although L. plantarum JC1 did not reduce the association of S. Typhimurium strain SL1344 to the jejunal IVOC tissues, detection of increased acidic mucin secretion, host cytoskeletal rearrangements, and proteins involved in the porcine immune response demonstrated that this strain of L. plantarum may contribute to protecting the pig from infections by S. Typhimurium or other pathogens.

Enhanced sensitivity to rapamycin following long-term oestrogen deprivation in MCF-7, T-47-D and ZR-75-1 human breast cancer cells

Human breast cancer cells (MCF-7, T-47-D and ZR-75-1) can adapt to circumvent any reduced growth rate during long-term oestrogen deprivation, and this provides three model systems to investigate mechanisms of endocrine resistance in breast cancer. In this paper we report consistent differences in the effects of three growth inhibitors following long-term oestrogen deprivation in all three cell models. Long-term oestrogen deprivation of MCF-7, T-47-D and ZR-75-1 cells resulted in reduced growth inhibition by PD98059 (2–10 µg/ml), implying a loss of dependence on mitogen-activated protein kinase pathways for growth. The growth inhibitor LY294002 (2–10 µM) inhibited growth of both oestrogen-maintained and oestrogen-deprived cells with similar dose–responses, implying continued similar dependence on phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) pathways with no alteration after adaptation to oestrogen independent growth. However, by contrast, long-term oestrogen deprivation resulted in an increased sensitivity to growth inhibition by rapamycin, which was not reduced by readdition of oestradiol. The enhanced inhibition of long-term oestrogen-deprived MCF-7-ED, T-47-D-ED and ZR-75-1-ED cell growth by combining rapamycin with LY294002 at concentrations where each alone had little effect, offers preclinical support to the development of therapeutic combinations of rapamycin analogues with other PI3K inhibitors in endocrine-resistant breast cancer.