Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

The Strength of Promissory Representation : What Makes MPs Change their Positions ?

The paper analyses the positional congruence between pre-election statements in the Swiss voting assistance application "smartvote" and post-election behaviour in the Swiss lower house between 2003 and 2009. For this purpose, we selected 34 smartvote questions which subsequently came up in parliament. Unlike previous studies which assessed the program-to-policy linkage of governments or party groups the paper examines the question at the level of individual MPs which seems appropriate for political systems which follow the idea of power dispersion. While the average rate of political congruence is at some 85 percent, a multivariate analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elections are over. The results show that positional changes are more likely if (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (4) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (5) if the pre-election statement is in disagreement with the majority position of the legislative party group. The last-mentioned factor is paramount: the farer away a candidate's pre-election profile from his or her party is located, the weaker turns out to be the electoral link of promissory representation.

The sexual behaviour of Panstrongylus megistus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae): an experimental study

The factors affecting the sexual behaviour of Panstrongylus megistus were studied under laboratory conditions. A general description of mating behaviour is presented for this species. The effect of the time elapsed after the first imaginal feeding on the mating frequency, the motivation of males to mate and the rejection behaviour by females, were analyzed. We also determined the number of copulas accepted by females of this species. Finally, the possible existence of a sexual chemical signal promoting male aggregation around mating couples was evaluated. Results showed that mating frequency increased with the time elapsed since the first adult meal. Despite the number of male copulatory attempts did not change as a function of time, the rejection behaviour of females became gradually less frequent. Females rejected mating by means of body flattening on the substrate, abdominal movements, evasion or stridulation. After a single copula, females did not usually accept to mate again. Neither male nor female aggregation around mating couples was observed, suggesting the absence of a sexual assembling pheromone in P. megistus.

Addiction and Change: How Aaddictions Develop and Addicted People Recover

Contents: 1. Models of addiction and change 2. The process of human intentional behavior change 3. The well maintained addiction : an ending and a beginning 4. Exploring precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation stages of becoming addicted 5. Repeated and regular use : moving from preparation to action on the road to addiction 6. Precontemplation for recovery : cultivating seeds for change 7. The decision to change : moving from the contemplation to the preparation stage of recovery 8. Preparing for action : creating a plan 9. Taking action to change an addiction 10. The long haul : well-maintained recovery 11. Prevention : interfering with the process of becoming addicted 12. Designing interventions for recovery 13. Research on addiction and change. "The stages-of-change model has become widely known as a framework for conceptualizing recovery. Less well known are the processes that drive movement through the stages or how the stages apply to becoming addicted. From Carlo DiClemente, codeveloper of the Transtheoretical Model, this book offers a panoramic view of the entire continuum of addictive behavior change. Illuminated is the common path that individuals travel as they establish and reinforce new patterns of behavior, whether they are developing an addiction or struggling to free themselves from one, and regardless of the specific addictive behavior. Presenting cutting-edge research with significant clinical implications, the book addresses crucial questions of why, when, and how to intervene to bolster recovery in those already addicted and reach out effectively to people at risk. It is essential reading for clinicians, prevention specialists, and policymakers." [from Book Jacket]This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Growing up in Ireland. Key findings: infant cohort (at 3 years).

 The latest results from the study paint a picture of how these families are faring across a range of areas in their lives including their health, family life and financial and economic circumstances. In general the findings show that three-year-olds in Ireland are in good health with a few notable public health and related issues (including overweight and obesity), there is overall stability in family structures over the short term and that the recession has had a substantial effect on families with young children over the last number of years. These are the first longitudinal findings from the study. The first wave of fieldwork with the families of the Infant Cohort included approximately 11,100 nine-month-olds, their parents and carers. Interviews began in September 2008 and were completed in March 2009. Interviews for the second round of interviews with this cohort took place between January and August 2011. A total of 90% of the original sample of nine-month-olds were successfully re-interviewed. (A full download of the results released today, presented in three briefing documents can be found by clicking here. Key findings include: Health â?¢ Most of the children were described as being in good health; 75% were rated as very healthy and a further 23% were rated as healthy, but a few minor problems. Girls were more likely to be reported as very healthy (78%) compared with boys (72%). â?¢ One in four or almost one quarter of three-year-old children were overweight (19%) or obese (6%). â?¢ Childrenâ?Ts weight was related to household social class. 5% of children in families in the professional/managerial group were classified as obese at three years of age compared with 9% of those in the most disadvantaged social class group. However, at least one-fifth of children in every social class were overweight. â?¢ Childrens consumption of energy-dense foods such as crisps, sweets, chips, and non-diet fizzy drinks increased as parental education fell. 63% of children whose mother had a lower secondary education or less ate at least one portion of crisps compared with 36% of those from degree-level backgrounds, although consumption of biscuits/chocolates was over 70% for both groups of children. â?¢ Two-thirds (66%) of three-year-olds had received at least one course of antibiotics in the 12 months preceding the interview. Children with a full medical card (35% of the sample) or a GP-only medical card (5% of the sample) were more likely to have received a course of antibiotics than â?¢ Children with a full medical card received a higher number of antibiotic courses on average (2.6) compared with those without a medical card (2.1). â?¢ Just under 16% of three-year-old children were reported as having at least one longstanding illness, condition or disability. The most commonly reported illness types included Asthma (5.8%), Eczema/Skin allergies (3.9%) and Food/digestive allergies (1.2%) Family Life and Childcare â?¢ While the overall distribution of family structure was stable, there have been transitions from one-parent families to two-parent families and vice-versa over the 27 months between interview â?" approximately 2 to 3 percent in each direction. â?¢ 50% of three year olds were in some form of non-parental childcare for eight or more hours a week. The most common form used was centre-based childcare which almost tripled between nine months and three years, from 11% to 30%. â?¢ A similar percentage of grandparents were caring for children at both nine months and three years, 12% and 11% respectively. A total of 10% of three-year-olds were being minded by a childminder, an increase of 3 percentage points from when the children were nine months of age. â?¢ Children who were in some form of non-parental childcare were spending an average of 23 hours a week in their main type of childcare. â?¢ At time of interview the vast majority of mothers reported that they had regular contact with the Study Childâ?Ts grandparents (91%). In offering support to parents, grandparents were most likely to babysit (50%), and buy clothes (40%) at least on a monthly basis. One-parent families were more likely than two-parent families to receive financial support from grandparents with just under one-third (66%) of one-parent families receiving financial support from grandparents at least once every three months. â?¢ The most frequently used discipline technique was â?~discussing or explaining why the behaviour was wrongâ?T, with 63% of mothers saying they always did this. â?¢ 12% of mothers said they used â?~smackingâ?T as a form of discipline now and again and less than 1% used â?~smackingâ?T as a form of discipline more frequently. Over half reported that they never smacked the Study Child. Financial and Economic Circumstances â?¢ Just over half (53%) of mothers of three-year-olds worked outside the home, 38% said they were on home duties and 6% said they were unemployed. â?¢ The biggest change in terms of the work status of three-year-oldsâ?T parents was an increase in the percentage of unemployed fathers â?" 6% when the child was nine months rising to almost 14% when s/he was three years of age. â?¢ 61% of families of three-year-olds reported experiencing difficulties in making â?~ends meetâ?T. This was a substantial increase from 44% in the first round of interviews when the children were nine-months-old. â?¢ Almost two thirds (63%) of all families with three-year-olds reported that the recession had had a very significant or significant effect on them. â?¢ The most frequently recorded effects were: a reduction in wages (63%); canâ?Tt afford luxuries (54%), social welfare reduction (53%) and canâ?Tt afford/cut back on basics (32%). Growing Up in Ireland is a Government funded study tracking the development of two nationally representative cohorts of children: an Infant Cohort which was interviewed initially at nine months and subsequently at three years of age; and a Child Cohort which was interviewed initially at nine years and subsequently at 13 years of age. The study is being conducted by a consortium of researchers led by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and Trinity College Dublin. For Further Information Please Contact: Jillian Heffernan Communications Officer, Growing Up in Ireland Tel: 01 896 3378 Mobile: 087 9016880This resource was contributed to our repository by the National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Radiosensibilité individuelle : les tests vont changer nos pratiques [Intrinsic radiosensitivity: predictive assays that will change the daily practice].

The impact of curative radiotherapy depends mainly on the total dose delivered homogenously in the targeted volume. Nevertheless, the dose delivered to the surrounding healthy tissues may reduce the therapeutic ratio of many radiation treatments. In a same population treated in one center with the same technique, it appears that individual radiosensitivity clearly exists, namely in terms of late side effects that are in principle non-reversible. This review details the different radiobiological approaches that have been developed to better understand the mechanisms of radiation-induced late effects. We also present the possibilities of clinical use of predictive assays in the close future.

Evolution of foraging behaviour in response to chronic malnutrition in Drosophila melanogaster.

Chronic exposure to food of low quality may exert conflicting selection pressures on foraging behaviour. On the one hand, more active search behaviour may allow the animal to find patches with slightly better, or more, food; on the other hand, such active foraging is energetically costly, and thus may be opposed by selection for energetic efficiency. Here, we test these alternative hypotheses in Drosophila larvae. We show that populations which experimentally evolved improved tolerance to larval chronic malnutrition have shorter foraging path length than unselected control populations. A behavioural polymorphism in foraging path length (the rover-sitter polymorphism) exists in nature and is attributed to the foraging locus (for). We show that a sitter strain (for(s2)) survives better on the poor food than the rover strain (for(R)), confirming that the sitter foraging strategy is advantageous under malnutrition. Larvae of the selected and control populations did not differ in global for expression. However, a quantitative complementation test suggests that the for locus may have contributed to the adaptation to poor food in one of the selected populations, either through a change in for allele frequencies, or by interacting epistatically with alleles at other loci. Irrespective of its genetic basis, our results provide two independent lines of evidence that sitter-like foraging behaviour is favoured under chronic larval malnutrition.

Melanin-based colour polymorphism responding to climate change.

Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.

Kernel-based methods for change detection in remote sensing images

Nowadays, the joint exploitation of images acquired daily by remote sensing instruments and of images available from archives allows a detailed monitoring of the transitions occurring at the surface of the Earth. These modifications of the land cover generate spectral discrepancies that can be detected via the analysis of remote sensing images. Independently from the origin of the images and of type of surface change, a correct processing of such data implies the adoption of flexible, robust and possibly nonlinear method, to correctly account for the complex statistical relationships characterizing the pixels of the images. This Thesis deals with the development and the application of advanced statistical methods for multi-temporal optical remote sensing image processing tasks. Three different families of machine learning models have been explored and fundamental solutions for change detection problems are provided. In the first part, change detection with user supervision has been considered. In a first application, a nonlinear classifier has been applied with the intent of precisely delineating flooded regions from a pair of images. In a second case study, the spatial context of each pixel has been injected into another nonlinear classifier to obtain a precise mapping of new urban structures. In both cases, the user provides the classifier with examples of what he believes has changed or not. In the second part, a completely automatic and unsupervised method for precise binary detection of changes has been proposed. The technique allows a very accurate mapping without any user intervention, resulting particularly useful when readiness and reaction times of the system are a crucial constraint. In the third, the problem of statistical distributions shifting between acquisitions is studied. Two approaches to transform the couple of bi-temporal images and reduce their differences unrelated to changes in land cover are studied. The methods align the distributions of the images, so that the pixel-wise comparison could be carried out with higher accuracy. Furthermore, the second method can deal with images from different sensors, no matter the dimensionality of the data nor the spectral information content. This opens the doors to possible solutions for a crucial problem in the field: detecting changes when the images have been acquired by two different sensors.

Multisensor change detection with nonlinear canonical correlation

The analysis of multi-modal and multi-sensor images is nowadays of paramount importance for Earth Observation (EO) applications. There exist a variety of methods that aim at fusing the different sources of information to obtain a compact representation of such datasets. However, for change detection existing methods are often unable to deal with heterogeneous image sources and very few consider possible nonlinearities in the data. Additionally, the availability of labeled information is very limited in change detection applications. For these reasons, we present the use of a semi-supervised kernel-based feature extraction technique. It incorporates a manifold regularization accounting for the geometric distribution and jointly addressing the small sample problem. An exhaustive example using Landsat 5 data illustrates the potential of the method for multi-sensor change detection.

Organisational Values as "Attractors of Chaos": An Emerging Cultural Change to Manage Organisational Complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

The genetical theory of social behaviour.

We survey the population genetic basis of social evolution, using a logically consistent set of arguments to cover a wide range of biological scenarios. We start by reconsidering Hamilton's (Hamilton 1964 J. Theoret. Biol. 7, 1-16 (doi:10.1016/0022-5193(64)90038-4)) results for selection on a social trait under the assumptions of additive gene action, weak selection and constant environment and demography. This yields a prediction for the direction of allele frequency change in terms of phenotypic costs and benefits and genealogical concepts of relatedness, which holds for any frequency of the trait in the population, and provides the foundation for further developments and extensions. We then allow for any type of gene interaction within and between individuals, strong selection and fluctuating environments and demography, which may depend on the evolving trait itself. We reach three conclusions pertaining to selection on social behaviours under broad conditions. (i) Selection can be understood by focusing on a one-generation change in mean allele frequency, a computation which underpins the utility of reproductive value weights; (ii) in large populations under the assumptions of additive gene action and weak selection, this change is of constant sign for any allele frequency and is predicted by a phenotypic selection gradient; (iii) under the assumptions of trait substitution sequences, such phenotypic selection gradients suffice to characterize long-term multi-dimensional stochastic evolution, with almost no knowledge about the genetic details underlying the coevolving traits. Having such simple results about the effect of selection regardless of population structure and type of social interactions can help to delineate the common features of distinct biological processes. Finally, we clarify some persistent divergences within social evolution theory, with respect to exactness, synergies, maximization, dynamic sufficiency and the role of genetic arguments.

Organisational values as "attractors of chaos": An emerging cultural change to manage organisational complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

1st radiometric dating of a paleontologically dated Bathonian level from Georgia (USSR) - Use of the cathodoluminescence for selection of suitable plagioclases

Jurassic volcanic formations interlayered with (ammonite-bearing) sediments are common in the Caucasus area; this situation is of interest for the numerical calibration of the poorly documented Jurassic portion of the time scale. However, following petrographic study on thin sections no whole-rocks can be considered reliable geochronometers due to subsequent alteration; from about 20 samples, two were selected for plagioclase dating; one (V134) is probably early Kimmeridgian in age; the other (V136) is probably located in the Lower Bathonian stage according to diagnostic ammonites. Cathodoluminescence (CTL) study has shown that sample V136 was similar to usual volcanic feldspars (blue to green colour); however, the lack of CTL of the V134 plagioclase is a character common to diagenetic feldspars; consequently, in spite of a good optical preservation, this geo-chronometer cannot give an age representative of the time of emplacement of the lava flow. We have combined CTL observation with microprobe analysis in order to document the poorly known CTL behaviour of volcanic feldspars; cations Ti4+ and Fe2+ play a major role in the CTL colour of plagioclases and are able to document the growing history of these feldspars ; phenocrysts are initially rich in Fe2+ (core of the crystals, green in colour), then richer in Ti toward the exterior; microcrysts are even richer in Ti (blue to bright blue). We have also observed that natural CTL colour was modified resulting from acid ``cleaning'' of the separated feldspars : the initial blue or green colour tends to change to yellow or violet, respectively, after acid treatment probably due to oxydation of Fe2+ toward Fe3+. X-ray and microprobe analyses both indicated that plagioclases from sample V134 was near the sodic end member (albite) suggesting a diagenetic origin in this andesitic basalt; In contrast, sample V136 contains a calcic plagioclase of common composition for a doleritic basalt. The K-Ar conventional technique was applied as a preliminary tool for radiometric analysis. The Kimmeridgian Na-plagioclase sample gave a ``rejuvenated'' (85 Ma) apparent age which confirms a late genesis for the separated plagioclase phase; this interpretation is based on CTL observation, X-ray analysis, and microprobe analysis ; these techniques are able to distinguish samples which have been submitted to diagenetic alteration from those which have not. An age consistent with the stratigraphic location has been obtained from sample V136. This age of 161 +/- 3 (2-sigma) Ma, is the first one available from a sample palaeontologically located with reasonable precision within the mid Jurassic time.

Geoecological drivers of cerrado heterogeneity and 13C natural abundance in oxisols after land-use change

The 13C natural abundance technique was applied to study C dynamics after land-use change from native savanna to Brachiaria, Pinus, and Eucalyptus in differently textured Cerrado Oxisols. But due to differences in the d13C signatures of subsoils under native savanna and under introduced species, C substitution could only be calculated based on results of cultivated soils nearby. It was estimated that after 20 years, Pinus C had replaced only 5 % of the native C in the 0-1.2 m layer, in which substitution was restricted to the top 0.4 m. Conversely, after 12 years, Brachiaria had replaced 21 % of Cerrado C to a depth of 1.2 m, where substitution decreased only slightly throughout the entire profile. The high d13C values in the subsoils of the cultivated sites led to the hypothesis that the natural vegetation there had been grassland rather than Cerrado sensu stricto, in spite of the comparable soil and site characteristics and the proximity of the studied sites. The hypothesis was tested using aerial photographs of 1964, which showed that the cultivated sites were located on a desiccated runoff head. The vegetation shift to a grass-dominated savanna formation might therefore have occurred in response to waterlogging and reduced soil aeration. A simple model was developed thereof, which ascribes the different Cerrado formations mainly to the plant-available water content and soil aeration. Soil fertility is considered of minor significance only, since at the studied native savanna sites tree density was independent of soil texture or nutrient status.