870 resultados para average causal effect


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Most of the signals recorded in experiments are inevitably contaminated by measurement noise. Hence, it is important to understand the effect of such noise on estimating causal relations between such signals. A primary tool for estimating causality is Granger causality. Granger causality can be computed by modeling the signal using a bivariate autoregressive (AR) process. In this paper, we greatly extend the previous analysis of the effect of noise by considering a bivariate AR process of general order p. From this analysis, we analytically obtain the dependence of Granger causality on various noise-dependent system parameters. In particular, we show that measurement noise can lead to spurious Granger causality and can suppress true Granger causality. These results are verified numerically. Finally, we show how true causality can be recovered numerically using the Kalman expectation maximization algorithm.

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The effect of doping trace amounts of noblemetals (Pt) on the gas sensing properties of chromium oxide thin films, is studied. The sensors are fabricated by depositing chromium oxide films on a glass substrate using a modified spray pyrolysis technique and characterized using X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The films are porous and nanocrystalline with an average crystallite size of similar to 30 nm. The typical p-type conductivity arises due to the presence of Cr vacancies, formed as a result of Cr non-stoichiometry, which is found to vary upon Pt doping. In order to analyze the effect of doping on the gas sensing properties, we have adopted a kinetic response analysis approach, which is based on Langmuir Adsorption isotherm (LA) theory. The sensor response is analyzed with equations obtained from LA theory and time constants as well as energies of adsorption-desorption are evaluated. It is seen that, Pt doping lowers the Schottky barrier height of the metal oxide semiconductor sensor from 222 meV to 172 meV. Subsequently the reduction in adsorption and desorption energies led to enhancement in sensor response and improvement in the kinetics of the sensor response i.e. the response time as well as recovery times of the sensor.

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We investigate the correlation between the band propagation property and the nature and amplitude of serrations in the Portevin-Le Chatelier effect within the framework of the Ananthakrishna model. Several significant results emerge. First, we find that spatial and temporal correlations continuously increase with strain rate from type C to type A bands. Consequently, the nature of the bands also changes continuously from type C to A bands, and so do the changes in the associated serrations. Second, even the smallest extent of propagation induces small amplitude serrations. The spatial extent of band propagation is directly correlated with the duration of small amplitude serrations, a result that is consistent with recent experiments. This correspondence allows one to estimate the spatial extent of band propagation by just measuring the temporal stretch of small amplitude serrations. Therefore, this should be of practical value when only stress versus strain is recorded. Third, the average stress drop magnitude of the small amplitude serrations induced by the propagating bands remains small and nearly constant with strain rate. As a consequence, the fully propagating type A bands are in a state of criticality. We rationalize the increasing levels of spatial and temporal correlations found with increasing strain rates. Lastly, the model also predicts several band morphologies seen in experiments including the Luders-like propagating band. (C) 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This study concerns the relationship between the power law recession coefficient k (in - dQ/dt = kQ(alpha), Q being discharge at the basin outlet) and past average discharge Q(N) (where N is the temporal distance from the center of the selected time span in the past to the recession peak), which serves as a proxy for past storage state of the basin. The strength of the k-Q(N) relationship is characterized by the coefficient of determination R-N(2), which is expected to indicate the basin's ability to hold water for N days. The main objective of this study is to examine how R-N(2) value of a basin is related with its physical characteristics. For this purpose, we use streamflow data from 358 basins in the United States and selected 18 physical parameters for each basin. First, we transform the physical parameters into mutually independent principal components. Then we employ multiple linear regression method to construct a model of R-N(2) in terms of the principal components. Furthermore, we employ step-wise multiple linear regression method to identify the dominant catchment characteristics that influence R-N(2) and their directions of influence. Our results indicate that R-N(2) is appreciably related to catchment characteristics. Particularly, it is noteworthy that the coefficient of determination of the relationship between R-N(2) and the catchment characteristics is 0.643 for N = 45. We found that topographical characteristics of a basin are the most dominant factors in controlling the value of R-N(2). Our results may be suggesting that it is possible to tell about the water holding capacity of a basin by just knowing about a few of its physical characteristics. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Nanoparticle deposition behavior observed at the Darcy scale represents an average of the processes occurring at the pore scale. Hence, the effect of various pore-scale parameters on nanoparticle deposition can be understood by studying nanoparticle transport at pore scale and upscaling the results to the Darcy scale. In this work, correlation equations for the deposition rate coefficients of nanoparticles in a cylindrical pore are developed as a function of nine pore-scale parameters: the pore radius, nanoparticle radius, mean flow velocity, solution ionic strength, viscosity, temperature, solution dielectric constant, and nanoparticle and collector surface potentials. Based on dominant processes, the pore space is divided into three different regions, namely, bulk, diffusion, and potential regions. Advection-diffusion equations for nanoparticle transport are prescribed for the bulk and diffusion regions, while the interaction between the diffusion and potential regions is included as a boundary condition. This interaction is modeled as a first-order reversible kinetic adsorption. The expressions for the mass transfer rate coefficients between the diffusion and the potential regions are derived in terms of the interaction energy profile. Among other effects, we account for nanoparticle-collector interaction forces on nanoparticle deposition. The resulting equations are solved numerically for a range of values of pore-scale parameters. The nanoparticle concentration profile obtained for the cylindrical pore is averaged over a moving averaging volume within the pore in order to get the 1-D concentration field. The latter is fitted to the 1-D advection-dispersion equation with an equilibrium or kinetic adsorption model to determine the values of the average deposition rate coefficients. In this study, pore-scale simulations are performed for three values of Peclet number, Pe = 0.05, 5, and 50. We find that under unfavorable conditions, the nanoparticle deposition at pore scale is best described by an equilibrium model at low Peclet numbers (Pe = 0.05) and by a kinetic model at high Peclet numbers (Pe = 50). But, at an intermediate Pe (e.g., near Pe = 5), both equilibrium and kinetic models fit the 1-D concentration field. Correlation equations for the pore-averaged nanoparticle deposition rate coefficients under unfavorable conditions are derived by performing a multiple-linear regression analysis between the estimated deposition rate coefficients for a single pore and various pore-scale parameters. The correlation equations, which follow a power law relation with nine pore-scale parameters, are found to be consistent with the column-scale and pore-scale experimental results, and qualitatively agree with the colloid filtration theory. These equations can be incorporated into pore network models to study the effect of pore-scale parameters on nanoparticle deposition at larger length scales such as Darcy scale.

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Gadolinium oxide (Gd2O3) nanotubes of micron length and average diameter 100 nm have been synthesized by a controlled template-assisted electrochemical deposition technique. Structure and morphology of the synthesized nanotubes have been well characterized by using microscopy and spectroscopy analyses. HRTEM and XRD analysis revealed the crystalline planes of Gd2O3 nanotubes. Magnetic measurements of the aligned Gd2O3 nanotubes have been performed for both parallel and perpendicular orientations of the magnetic field with respect to the axis of the Gd2O3 nanotube array. Large bifurcation in ZFC-FC over the regime of 2-320 K without any signature of long range magnetic ordering confirms the presence of SPM clusters in Gd2O3 nanotubes. Also, large magnetocaloric effect is observed in the cryogenic temperature regime. No anisotropy is seen at the low temperature region but is found to evolve with temperature and becomes significant 300 K. These nanotubes can be considered as promising candidates for magnetic refrigeration at cryogenic temperature. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Maximum, spreading of liquid drops impacting on solid surfaces textured with unidirectional parallel grooves is studied for drop Weber number in the range 1-100 focusing on the role of texture geometry and wettability. The maximum spread factor of impacting drops measured perpendicular to grooves; beta(m,perpendicular to) is seen to be less than, that:measured parallel to grooves, beta(m,perpendicular to).The difference between beta(m,perpendicular to), and beta(m,parallel to) increases with drop impact velocity. This deviation of beta(m,perpendicular to) from beta(m,parallel to) is analyzed by considering the possible mechanisms, correspond, ing to experimental observations (1) impregnation of drop into the grooves, (2) convex shape of liquid vapor interface near contact line at maximum spreading, and (3) contact line pinning of spreading drop at the pillar edges by incorporating them into an energy conservation-based model. The analysis reveals that contact line pinning offers a physically meaningful justification of the observed: deviation of beta(m,perpendicular to) from beta(m,parallel to) compared to other possible candidates. A unified model, incorporating all the above-mentioned mechanisms, is formulated, which predicts beta(m,perpendicular to) on several groove-textured surfaces made of intrinsically hydrophilic and hydrophobic materials with an average error of 8.3%. The effect of groove-texture geometrical parameters,on maximum drop spreading is explained using this unified model. A special case of the unified model, with contact line pinning, absent, predicts beta(m,parallel to) with an average error of 6.3%.

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The coupling mechanisms and flow characteristics of thermocapillary convection in a thin liquid layer with evaporating interface were studied. The planar liquid layer, with the upper surface open to air, was imposed externally horizontal temperature differences. The measured average evaporating rates and interfacial temperature profiles indicated the relative importance of evaporation effect and thermocapillary convection under different temperature gradients. A temperature jump was found at the interface, which was thought to be related to the influence of evaporation effect. All above mentioned results were repeated in a rarely evaporating liquid to compare the influence of evaporation effect.

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Fry of Heterobranchus bidorsalis (mean weight, 0.03g) were fed at 10, 20, 30, 40 or 50% of their body weight (bw)/day in outdoor concrete tanks in New Bussa, Nigeria. The fry attained the highest average weight of 6.66g in 10 weeks when fed at 40% bw/day. Feed conversion ratio ranged from 2.13 to 9.65, the protein efficiency ratio from 1.33 to 5.93. Results indicated that H. bidorsalis are efficient feed converters. Feed intake was significantly different (p<0.05) between the treatments, specific growth rate (SGR), daily growth rate (DGR), production and average weight gain indicated that 40% of fish biomass was the optimum feeding level

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The technology of laser quenching is widely used to improve the surface properties of steels in surface engineering. Generally, laser quenching of steels can lead to two important results. One is the generation of residual stress in the surface layer. In general, the residual stress varies from the surface to the interior along the quenched track depth direction, and the residual stress variation is termed as residual stress gradient effect in this work. The other is the change of mechanical properties of the surface layer, such as the increases of the micro-hardness, resulting from the changes of the microstructure of the surface layer. In this work, a mechanical model of a laser-quenched specimen with a crack in the middle of the quenched layer is developed to quantify the effect of residual stress gradient and the average micro-hardness over the crack length on crack tip opening displacement (CTOD). It is assumed that the crack in the middle of the quenched layer is created after laser quenching, and the crack can be a pre-crack or a defect due to some reasons, such as a void, cavity or a micro-crack. Based on the elastic-plastic fracture mechanics theory and using the relationship between the micro-hardness and yield strength, a concise analytical solution, which can be used to quantify the effect of residual stress gradient and the average micro-hardness over the crack length resulting from laser quenching on CTOD, is obtained. The concise analytical solution obtained in this work, cannot only be used as a means to predict the crack driving force in terms of the CTOD, but also serve as a baseline for further experimental investigation of the effect after laser-quenching treatment on fracture toughness in terms of the critical CTOD of a specimen, accounting for the laser-quenching effect. A numerical example presented in this work shows that the CTOD of the quenched can be significantly decreased in comparison with that of the unquenched. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The findings are presented of an assessment made of the gillnet fishery in Kainji Lake, Nigeria from 1969 to the present, on the basis of data sets from commercial and experimental gillnet fishing, with the purpose to detect trends in some key fishery monitoring indicators. During this period, there has been an increase in the number of small meshed nets in the fishery resulting in a shift in the mode to lower mesh sizes; consequently, the average mesh size declined gradually in the fishery. This trend is found to be directly correlated with the decline in the CPUE and mean weight of the fish species. It is argued that the observed trend in CPUE and mean weight is forcing the fishermen to switch effort to gears such as traps which have very small meshes and can indescriminately take all sizes of the fish. It is shown that the catch composition by weight of Citharinus citharus, Lates niloticus and tilapias declined in the gillnet fishery in the late 70's and early 80's. Recent data, from 1994 to 1996, however indicates that C. citharus is recovering, but with declining mean weight. This suggests that the exploitation pattern is shifting to the smaller fish through the use of small meshed nets. In general, however, there has not been drastic changes in species bio-diversity in the Lake as a result of predatory effect and ecosystem overfishing as has happened in other great African Lakes. The species composition since lake formation continued to be dominated by fewer that 20 species. The potential yield for the lake has been estimated to be 32,166 tonnes (excluding clupeids) and the required optimum fishing effort to be 1,814 fishing canoes. In view of the relative stability of the species diversity in the lake and the current fish production level, it is proposed here that this MSY be adopted for all species. This would be achieved with the current effort level in the lake assuming that the efficiency of the fishermen and their gears do not improve. It should be reviewed after 10 or more years of catch and effort data collection. (PDF contains 65 pages)

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Part I.

We have developed a technique for measuring the depth time history of rigid body penetration into brittle materials (hard rocks and concretes) under a deceleration of ~ 105 g. The technique includes bar-coded projectile, sabot-projectile separation, detection and recording systems. Because the technique can give very dense data on penetration depth time history, penetration velocity can be deduced. Error analysis shows that the technique has a small intrinsic error of ~ 3-4 % in time during penetration, and 0.3 to 0.7 mm in penetration depth. A series of 4140 steel projectile penetration into G-mixture mortar targets have been conducted using the Caltech 40 mm gas/ powder gun in the velocity range of 100 to 500 m/s.

We report, for the first time, the whole depth-time history of rigid body penetration into brittle materials (the G-mixture mortar) under 105 g deceleration. Based on the experimental results, including penetration depth time history, damage of recovered target and projectile materials and theoretical analysis, we find:

1. Target materials are damaged via compacting in the region in front of a projectile and via brittle radial and lateral crack propagation in the region surrounding the penetration path. The results suggest that expected cracks in front of penetrators may be stopped by a comminuted region that is induced by wave propagation. Aggregate erosion on the projectile lateral surface is < 20% of the final penetration depth. This result suggests that the effect of lateral friction on the penetration process can be ignored.

2. Final penetration depth, Pmax, is linearly scaled with initial projectile energy per unit cross-section area, es , when targets are intact after impact. Based on the experimental data on the mortar targets, the relation is Pmax(mm) 1.15es (J/mm2 ) + 16.39.

3. Estimation of the energy needed to create an unit penetration volume suggests that the average pressure acting on the target material during penetration is ~ 10 to 20 times higher than the unconfined strength of target materials under quasi-static loading, and 3 to 4 times higher than the possible highest pressure due to friction and material strength and its rate dependence. In addition, the experimental data show that the interaction between cracks and the target free surface significantly affects the penetration process.

4. Based on the fact that the penetration duration, tmax, increases slowly with es and does not depend on projectile radius approximately, the dependence of tmax on projectile length is suggested to be described by tmax(μs) = 2.08es (J/mm2 + 349.0 x m/(πR2), in which m is the projectile mass in grams and R is the projectile radius in mm. The prediction from this relation is in reasonable agreement with the experimental data for different projectile lengths.

5. Deduced penetration velocity time histories suggest that whole penetration history is divided into three stages: (1) An initial stage in which the projectile velocity change is small due to very small contact area between the projectile and target materials; (2) A steady penetration stage in which projectile velocity continues to decrease smoothly; (3) A penetration stop stage in which projectile deceleration jumps up when velocities are close to a critical value of ~ 35 m/s.

6. Deduced averaged deceleration, a, in the steady penetration stage for projectiles with same dimensions is found to be a(g) = 192.4v + 1.89 x 104, where v is initial projectile velocity in m/s. The average pressure acting on target materials during penetration is estimated to be very comparable to shock wave pressure.

7. A similarity of penetration process is found to be described by a relation between normalized penetration depth, P/Pmax, and normalized penetration time, t/tmax, as P/Pmax = f(t/tmax, where f is a function of t/tmax. After f(t/tmax is determined using experimental data for projectiles with 150 mm length, the penetration depth time history for projectiles with 100 mm length predicted by this relation is in good agreement with experimental data. This similarity also predicts that average deceleration increases with decreasing projectile length, that is verified by the experimental data.

8. Based on the penetration process analysis and the present data, a first principle model for rigid body penetration is suggested. The model incorporates the models for contact area between projectile and target materials, friction coefficient, penetration stop criterion, and normal stress on the projectile surface. The most important assumptions used in the model are: (1) The penetration process can be treated as a series of impact events, therefore, pressure normal to projectile surface is estimated using the Hugoniot relation of target material; (2) The necessary condition for penetration is that the pressure acting on target materials is not lower than the Hugoniot elastic limit; (3) The friction force on projectile lateral surface can be ignored due to cavitation during penetration. All the parameters involved in the model are determined based on independent experimental data. The penetration depth time histories predicted from the model are in good agreement with the experimental data.

9. Based on planar impact and previous quasi-static experimental data, the strain rate dependence of the mortar compressive strength is described by σf0f = exp(0.0905(log(έ/έ_0) 1.14, in the strain rate range of 10-7/s to 103/s (σ0f and έ are reference compressive strength and strain rate, respectively). The non-dispersive Hugoniot elastic wave in the G-mixture has an amplitude of ~ 0.14 GPa and a velocity of ~ 4.3 km/s.

Part II.

Stress wave profiles in vitreous GeO2 were measured using piezoresistance gauges in the pressure range of 5 to 18 GPa under planar plate and spherical projectile impact. Experimental data show that the response of vitreous GeO2 to planar shock loading can be divided into three stages: (1) A ramp elastic precursor has peak amplitude of 4 GPa and peak particle velocity of 333 m/s. Wave velocity decreases from initial longitudinal elastic wave velocity of 3.5 km/s to 2.9 km/s at 4 GPa; (2) A ramp wave with amplitude of 2.11 GPa follows the precursor when peak loading pressure is 8.4 GPa. Wave velocity drops to the value below bulk wave velocity in this stage; (3) A shock wave achieving final shock state forms when peak pressure is > 6 GPa. The Hugoniot relation is D = 0.917 + 1.711u (km/s) using present data and the data of Jackson and Ahrens [1979] when shock wave pressure is between 6 and 40 GPa for ρ0 = 3.655 gj cm3 . Based on the present data, the phase change from 4-fold to 6-fold coordination of Ge+4 with O-2 in vitreous GeO2 occurs in the pressure range of 4 to 15 ± 1 GPa under planar shock loading. Comparison of the shock loading data for fused SiO2 to that on vitreous GeO2 demonstrates that transformation to the rutile structure in both media are similar. The Hugoniots of vitreous GeO2 and fused SiO2 are found to coincide approximately if pressure in fused SiO2 is scaled by the ratio of fused SiO2to vitreous GeO2 density. This result, as well as the same structure, provides the basis for considering vitreous Ge02 as an analogous material to fused SiO2 under shock loading. Experimental results from the spherical projectile impact demonstrate: (1) The supported elastic shock in fused SiO2 decays less rapidly than a linear elastic wave when elastic wave stress amplitude is higher than 4 GPa. The supported elastic shock in vitreous GeO2 decays faster than a linear elastic wave; (2) In vitreous GeO2 , unsupported shock waves decays with peak pressure in the phase transition range (4-15 GPa) with propagation distance, x, as α 1/x-3.35 , close to the prediction of Chen et al. [1998]. Based on a simple analysis on spherical wave propagation, we find that the different decay rates of a spherical elastic wave in fused SiO2 and vitreous GeO2 is predictable on the base of the compressibility variation with stress under one-dimensional strain condition in the two materials.

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Replicate Ponds of 0.02ha stocked at 500 catfishes with 20,000 tilapia/ha were used to assess growth performance of O.niloticus, average weight 50.4g with (i) darted catfish; H.longifilis (shooters) average weight 60.3g (ii) non-shooters of H.longifilis, average weight 35.4g. Final mean weight, mean growth rate, specific growth rate and food conversion ratio were 499.5g 26g/day, 1.36% and 5.58% respectively for O.niloticus stocked with longifilis (shooters and 440.4g 2.3g/day 1.23% and 5.58% respectively for O.niloticus stocked withH.longifilis (non- shooters) and 246.9g, 1.2g/day, 0.93, 6.30% respectively for tilapia in monoculture. The least growth was noted for O. niloticus in monoculture while the best growth was recorded O. niloticus in polyculture with darted catfish

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The effect of different salinity levels on the growth and survival of Clarais gariepinus fry was studied in indoor hatchery system for a period of three weeks. 1000 Clarias gariepinus fry of an average weight 0.37~c0.06g were stocked at 100 fry in five replicated 20 liters plastic bowls. Five salinity levels of 0.2, 0.4, 1.1, 2.1 and 4.2ppt were tested. The results indicated that significant difference P~.0.05 highest weight gain of 0.89~c0.05g was presented by fry in 0.2ppt medium. All fry raised in 4.2ppt died within 24 hours. No significant difference P~,0.05 in weight gain is presented in fry raised in 0.2ppt-2.1ppt. From this study, the weight gain decreases with increase in salinity. Also the survival rate decreases from 0.2ppt to 1.1ppt raised fry while the lowest significant difference P~.0.05 survivals were presented in fry raised in 2.1 and 4.2ppt. Based on these results and foregoing, salinity rate of 0.4ppt is favourable for growth and survival of C.gariepinus fry

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Replicate Ponds of 0.02ha stocked at 500 catfishes with 20,000 tilapia/ha were used to assess growth performance of O.niloticus, average weight 50.4g with (i) darted catfish; H.longifilis (shooters) average weight 60.3g (ii) non-shooters of H.longifilis, average weight 35.4g. Final mean weight, mean growth rate, specific growth rate and food conversion ratio were 499.5g 26g/day, 1.36% and 5.58% respectively for O.niloticus stocked with longifilis (shooters) and 440.4g 2.3g/day 1.23% and 5.58% respectively for O.niloticus stocked with H.longifilis (non- shooters) and 246.9g, 1.2g/day, 0.93, 6.30% respectively for tilapia in monoculture. The least growth was noted for O. niloticus in monoculture while the best growth was recorded O. niloticus in polyculture with darted catfish