Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

The variety of variables in automated real-time refinement

The refinement calculus is a well-established theory for deriving program code from specifications. Recent research has extended the theory to handle timing requirements, as well as functional ones, and we have developed an interactive programming tool based on these extensions. Through a number of case studies completed using the tool, this paper explains how the tool helps the programmer by supporting the many forms of variables needed in the theory. These include simple state variables as in the untimed calculus, trace variables that model the evolution of properties over time, auxiliary variables that exist only to support formal reasoning, subroutine parameters, and variables shared between parallel processes.

Usefulness of B-type natriuretic peptide in hypertensive patients with exertional dyspnea and normal left ventricular ejection fraction and correlation with new echocardiographic indexes of systolic and diastolic function

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels increase in systolic heart failure (HF). However, the value of BNP in hypertensive patients with suspected diastolic HF (symptoms suggestive of HF but normal ejection fraction) and its relation to myocardial function in these patients is unclear. We prospectively studied 72 ambulatory hypertensive subjects (40 women, mean age 58 +/- 8 years) with exertional dyspnea and ejection fraction greater than or equal to50%. Diastolic function was evaluated with transmitral and pulmonary venous Doppler, mitral annular velocities (pulsed-wave tissue Doppler), and flow propagation velocity (color M-mode). Systolic function was assessed with strain and strain rate derived from color tissue Doppler imaging. BNP was related to myocardial function and the presence or absence of global diastolic dysfunction. By conventional Doppler criteria, 34 patients had normal left ventricular diastolic function and 38 had isolated diastolic dysfunction. BNP values were higher in patients with diastolic dysfunction (46 +/- 48 vs 20 +/- 20 pg/ml, p = 0.004) and were related independently to blood pressure, systolic strain rate, left atrial function (p < 0.01 for all), and age (p = 0.015). Patients with diastolic dysfunction and pseudonormal filling had higher BNP levels compared with impaired relaxation (89 +/- 47 vs 35 +/- 42 pg/ml, p = 0.001). However, 79% of patients with diastolic dysfunction had BNP levels within the normal range. We conclude that in ambulatory hypertensive patients with symptoms suggestive of mild HF and normal ejection fraction, BNP is related to atrial and ventricular systolic parameters, blood pressure, and age. Although elevated in the presence of diastolic dysfunction, the BNP level mostly is in the normal range and, therefore, has limited diagnostic value in stable patients with suspected diastolic HF. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Poor correlation of mid-femoral measurements by CT and hip measurements by DXA in the elderly

Background and aims: Hip fracture is a devastating event in terms of outcome in the elderly, and the best predictor of hip fracture risk is hip bone density, usually measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). However, bone density can also be ascertained from computerized tomography (CT) scans, and mid-thigh scans are frequently employed to assess the muscle and fat composition of the lower limb. Therefore, we examined if it was possible to predict hip bone density using mid-femoral bone density. Methods: Subjects were 803 ambulatory white and black women and men, aged 70-79 years, participating in the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Bone mineral content (BMC, g) and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD, mg/cm(3)) of the mid-femur were obtained by CT, whereas BMC and areal bone mineral density (aBMD, g/cm(2)) of the hip (femoral neck and trochanter) were derived from DXA. Results: In regression analyses stratified by race and sex, the coefficient of determination was low with mid-femoral BMC, explaining 6-27% of the variance in hip BMC, with a standard error of estimate (SEE) ranging from 16 to 22% of the mean. For mid-femur vBMD, the variance explained in hip aBMD was 2-17% with a SEE ranging from 15 to 18%. Adjusting aBMD to approximate volumetric density did not improve the relationships. In addition, the utility of fracture prediction was examined. Forty-eight subjects had one or more fractures (various sites) during a mean follow-up of 4.07 years. In logistic regression analysis, there was no association between mid-femoral vBMD and fracture (all fractures), whereas a 1 SD increase in hip BMD was associated with reduced odds for fracture of similar to60%. Conclusions: These results do not support the use of CT-derived mid-femoral vBMD or BMC to predict DXA-measured hip bone mineral status, irrespective of race or sex in older adults. Further, in contrast to femoral neck and trochanter BMD, mid-femur vBMD was not able to predict fracture (all fractures). (C) 2003, Editrice Kurtis.

Caracterização físico química, perfil sensorial e aceitação de morangos submetidos à irradiação

A irradiação de alimentos é um método de conservação não térmico utilizado em diferentes alimentos e em diferentes doses. Sabe-se que, dependendo da dose aplicada, esse método pode ocasionar alterações nas características físico-químicas e sensoriais, que afetam a qualidade do produto. Portanto, um dos objetivos deste estudo foi analisar o efeito da irradiação nas características físico-químicas e sensoriais de morangos irradiados. A irradiação das amostras de morango ocorreu um dia após a colheita e foi realizada no Laboratório de Radiação Gama do Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN), em Belo Horizonte-MG. As doses utilizadas foram 1 kGy, 2 kGy, 3 kGy e 4 kGy e a amostra controle (0 kGy). Foram avaliados pH, acidez total titulável, sólidos solúveis, ratio (relação entre teor de sólidos solúveis e acidez total titulável), açúcares redutores, totais e não redutores, pectina, ácido ascórbico, firmeza, cor, antocianinas, compostos fenólicos e capacidade antioxidante. Para a caracterização sensorial das amostras, foi utilizado o método Perfil Descritivo Otimizado (PDO), sendo avaliados os atributos sensoriais cor, sabor adocicado, gosto ácido, firmeza e suculência, por 15 julgadores previamente selecionados. Além da caracterização sensorial, foi realizada a análise de aceitação sensorial por 60 consumidores de morango em duas sessões. A irradiação não alterou significativamente a maioria das características físico-químicas analisadas, ao comparar todas as doses empregadas, incluindo o morango controle (não irradiado); apenas a firmeza apresentou valores diferentes estatisticamente: com o aumento da dose, houve diminuição da firmeza do fruto. No PDO, as amostras diferiram quanto à cor, sabor adocicado, firmeza e suculência, sendo que a amostra controle e a amostra irradiada com 1 kGy tiveram maiores valores de firmeza e menores de suculência e sabor adocicado. Em relação à aceitação, a amostra controle e a amostra irradiada com 1 kGy não diferiram estatisticamente pelo teste Tukey a 5%, mas diferiram das amostras irradiadas com doses de 3 kGy e de 4 kGy; no entanto, a amostra irradiada a 2 kGy não diferiu de nenhuma outra dose. Foram realizados estudos de correlações entre os dados físico-químicos de pH, acidez total titulável (ATT), sólidos solúveis (SS), açúcares totais e açúcares não redutores, antocianina (método pH diferencial), pectina, firmeza instrumental, relação entre SS/ATT (ratio) e alguns parâmetros de cor (a*, b*, c* e L), e os dados do teste sensorial descritivo, ou seja, os atributos de firmeza, suculência, sabor adocicado e gosto ácido. Os resultados obtidos foram correlações significativamente positivas entre pH e ratio, sólidos solúveis e pectina, antocianinas e parâmetros de cor (a* e c*), açúcares e parâmetros de cor (b* e c*), firmeza sensorial e firmeza instrumental, suculência e sabor xvi adocicado e firmeza sensorial e gosto ácido. Já as correlações negativas foram entre acidez e ratio, sólidos solúveis e firmeza, antocianina e L*, firmeza sensorial e sabor adocicado e suculência com: firmeza instrumental, firmeza sensorial e gosto ácido. Neste trabalho, também foi realizada a caracterização físico-química e sensorial de morangos irradiados nas doses determinadas por Lima Filho et al. (2014) como sendo correspondentes ao limiar de detecção (LD) sensorial (0,405 kGy) e ao limiar de rejeição (LR) sensorial (3,6 kGy) para morangos irradiados. Além disso, foi verificada a influência da embalagem na aceitação sensorial de morangos irradiados na dose 3,6 kGy. Todas as medidas físico-químicas apresentaram pequena variação entre as amostras controle (0 kGy) e o LD e o LR. Não houve diferença significativa em relação à aceitação da amostra irradiada na ausência e na presença da embalagem, provavelmente devido ao grau de conhecimento do painel de consumidores em relação ao processo de irradiação de alimentos. Conclui-se que a irradiação é um método de conservação que pode ser utilizado em morangos, uma vez que exerce pouca influência, no período de tempo estudado, nas suas características físico-químicas e sensoriais.

Automated traffic route identification through the shared nearest neighbour algorithm

Many organisations need to extract useful information from huge amounts of movement data. One example is found in maritime transportation, where the automated identification of a diverse range of traffic routes is a key management issue for improving the maintenance of ports and ocean routes, and accelerating ship traffic. This paper addresses, in a first stage, the research challenge of developing an approach for the automated identification of traffic routes based on clustering motion vectors rather than reconstructed trajectories. The immediate benefit of the proposed approach is to avoid the reconstruction of trajectories in terms of their geometric shape of the path, their position in space, their life span, and changes of speed, direction and other attributes over time. For clustering the moving objects, an adapted version of the Shared Nearest Neighbour algorithm is used. The motion vectors, with a position and a direction, are analysed in order to identify clusters of vectors that are moving towards the same direction. These clusters represent traffic routes and the preliminary results have shown to be promising for the automated identification of traffic routes with different shapes and densities, as well as for handling noise data.

Correlation between grain nutritional content and pasting properties of pre-gelatinized red rice flour

As with any variety of rice, red rice characteristics are subject to varietal differences, growing conditions, types of processing, and nutritional and rheological properties. This study determined the nutritional characteristics (centesimal composition and minerals) and paste viscosity properties of raw grains of four red rice genotypes (Tradicional MNAPB0405, MNACE0501 and MNACH0501) and the paste viscosity properties of pre-gelatinized flours obtained at different cooking times (20, 30 and 40 min). The main nutritional properties were correlated with the pasting properties of the pre-gelatinized flours. The samples showed differences in nutritional properties and paste viscosity. MNAPB0405 and MNACE0501 showed higher levels of fiber and fat and provided higher caloric energy than Tradicional and MNACH0501, which, in turn, showed higher levels of amylose. MNACH0501 showed higher peak viscosity (2402 cP), higher breakdown viscosity (696 cP) and a greater tendency to retrogradation (1510 cP), while Tradicional, MNAPB0405 and MNACE0501 had pasting profiles with peak viscosities varying between 855 and 1093 cP, breaking viscosity below 85 cP and retrogradation tendency between 376 and 1206 cP. The factors genotype and cooking time influenced the rheological behavior of pre-gelatinized flours, decreasing their pasting properties. The protein and amylose levels are correlated with the pasting properties and can be used as indicators of these properties in different genotypes of red rice, whether raw or processed into pre-gelatinized flours.

Automated image analysis of lung branching morphogenesis from microscopic images of fetal rat explants

Background: Regulating mechanisms of branching morphogenesis of fetal lung rat explants have been an essential tool for molecular research. This work presents a new methodology to accurately quantify the epithelial, outer contour and peripheral airway buds of lung explants during cellular development from microscopic images. Methods: The outer contour was defined using an adaptive and multi-scale threshold algorithm whose level was automatically calculated based on an entropy maximization criterion. The inner lung epithelial was defined by a clustering procedure that groups small image regions according to the minimum description length principle and local statistical properties. Finally, the number of peripheral buds were counted as the skeleton branched ends from a skeletonized image of the lung inner epithelial. Results: The time for lung branching morphometric analysis was reduced in 98% in contrast to the manual method. Best results were obtained in the first two days of cellular development, with lesser standard deviations. Non-significant differences were found between the automatic and manual results in all culture days. Conclusions: The proposed method introduces a series of advantages related to its intuitive use and accuracy, making the technique suitable to images with different lightning characteristics and allowing a reliable comparison between different researchers.

Automated image analysis of lung branching morphogenesis

Regulating mechanisms of branchingmorphogenesis of fetal lung rat explants have been an essential tool formolecular research.This work presents a new methodology to accurately quantify the epithelial, outer contour, and peripheral airway buds of lung explants during cellular development frommicroscopic images. Methods.Theouter contour was defined using an adaptive and multiscale threshold algorithm whose level was automatically calculated based on an entropy maximization criterion. The inner lung epithelium was defined by a clustering procedure that groups small image regions according to the minimum description length principle and local statistical properties. Finally, the number of peripheral buds was counted as the skeleton branched ends from a skeletonized image of the lung inner epithelia. Results. The time for lung branching morphometric analysis was reduced in 98% in contrast to themanualmethod. Best results were obtained in the first two days of cellular development, with lesser standard deviations. Nonsignificant differences were found between the automatic and manual results in all culture days. Conclusions. The proposed method introduces a series of advantages related to its intuitive use and accuracy, making the technique suitable to images with different lighting characteristics and allowing a reliable comparison between different researchers.

Access to information: assessment of the use of automated interaction technologies in call centers

With the purpose of at lowering costs and reendering the demanded information available to users with no access to the internet, service companies have adopted automated interaction technologies in their call centers, which may or may not meet the expectations of users. Based on different areas of knowledge (man-machine interaction, consumer behavior and use of IT) 13 propositions are raised and a research is carried out in three parts: focus group, field study with users and interviews with experts. Eleven automated service characteristics which support the explanation for user satisfaction are listed, a preferences model is proposed and evidence in favor or against each of the 13 propositions is brought in. With balance scorecard concepts, a managerial assessment model is proposed for the use of automated call center technology. In future works, the propositions may become verifiable hypotheses through conclusive empirical research.