Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir,Beijing, China

The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.

Design of a silicone reservoir intravaginal ring for the delivery of oxybutynin.

Oxybutynin, a drug of choice in the treatment of urinary incontinence, has low oral bioavailability due to extensive first-pass metabolism. A toxic metabolite, N-desethyloxybutynin, has been linked to adverse reactions to oral oxybutynin. This study, therefore, reports on the design of an oxybutynin intravaginal ring (IVR) of reservoir design, comprising an oxybutynin silicone elastomer core encased in a non-medicated silicone sheath, manufactured by reaction injection moulding at 50oC. An unusually high initial burst release of oxybutynin (42.7 mg in 24 h) was observed in vitro with a full length core (100 mg drug loading), with subsequent non-zero order drug release. Use of fractional segment cores substantially reduced the burst effect, yielding linear cumulative drug release versus time plots from days 2 to 14. Thus, a 1/8 fractional segment core gave a 24 h burst of 11.28 mg oxybutynin and, thereafter, zero order release at the target dose of 5 mg/day over 14 days. Two oxybutynin cores, each 1/16 of full length, gave a greater release than a single 1/8 core, due to core segment end effects resulting in an increased surface area for release. The burst release was investigated by determining drug solubilities in the propan-1-ol product of elastomer condensation cure (390 mg/ml) and in the elastomer itself (13.9-20.21 mg/ml, by direct extraction and indirect thermal methods). These high oxybutynin solubilities were considered the major contributors to the burst effect. It was concluded that use of a fractional segment core would allow development of a suitable oxybutynin reservoir IVR.

A marine reservoir correction database and on-line interface

Calibration is essential for interpretation of radiocarbon dates, especially when the 14C dates are compared to historical or climatic records with a different chronological basis. 14C ages of samples from the marine environment, such as shells or fish bones, or samples with a marine component, such as human bone in coastal regions, require an additional consideration because of the reservoir age of the ocean. While the pre-industrial global mean reservoir correction, R(t), is about 400 years, local variations (?R) can be several hundred years or more. ?R compilations on a global scale have been undertaken previously (Stuiver et al. 1986; Stuiver and Braziunas 1993), but have not been updated recently. Here we describe an on-line reservoir correction database accessed via mapping software. Rather than publishing a static ?R compilation, new data will be incorporated when it becomes available. The on-line marine reservoir correction database can be accessed at the website http://www.calib.org/.

A tentative determination of upwelling influence on the paleo-surficial marine water reservoir effect in southeastern Brazil.

Previous work has suggested that seasonal and inter-annual upwelling of deep, cold, radiocarbon depleted waters from the South Atlantic has caused variations in the reservoir effect (R) through time along the southern coast of Brazil. This work aims to examine the possible upwelling influence on the paleo-reservoir age of Brazilian surficial coastal waters based on paired terrestrial/marine samples obtained from archaeological remains. On the Brazilian coast there are hundreds of shell-middens built up by an ancient culture that lived between 6500 to 1500 years ago, but there are few located on open coast with a known upwelling influence. Three archaeological sites located in a large headland in Arraial do Cabo and Ilha de Cabo Frio, southeastern coast of Brazil with open ocean conditions and a well-known strong and large upwelling of the Malvinas/Falkland current were chosen for this study. The 14C age differences between carbonized seed and marine samples varied from 281 ± 44 to 1083 ± 51 14C yr. There are also significant age differences between carbonized seed samples (977 14C yr) and marine samples (200 and 228 14C yr) from the same archaeological layer that cannot be explained by a reservoir effect or an old-wood effect for charcoal. Therefore the present data from the southeastern Brazilian coast are inconclusive for identifying an upwelling effect on R. To do so it would be necessary to more precisely define the present-pre-bomb R in upwelling regions and to analyze paired marine/terrestrial samples that are contemporaneous beyond doubt.