‘NSC 68 and the Soviet Threat: A New Perspective on Western Threat Perception and Policy Making’

It has been argued that the US strategy paper NSC 68 of 1950 which ushered in the great Cold War rearmament process first in the US and then in NATO was a vast overreaction. This paper argues, by contrast, that given the intelligence about the Soviet Union's and its satellites' military buildup and the role of China in that period, this was a reasonable strategy to embrace.

Synoptic-scale controls of persistent low temperature and icy weather over southern China in January 2008

In January 2008, central and southern China experienced persistent low temperatures, freezing rain, and snow. The large-scale conditions associated with the occurrence and development of these snowstorms are examined in order to identify the key synoptic controls leading to this event. Three main factors are identified: 1) the persistent blocking high over Siberia, which remained quasi-stationary around 65°E for 3 weeks, led to advection of dry and cold Siberian air down to central and southern China; 2) a strong persistent southwesterly flow associated with the western Pacific subtropical high led to enhanced moisture advection from the Bay of Bengal into central and southern China; and 3) the deep inversion layer in the lower troposphere associated with the extended snow cover over most of central and southern China. The combination of these three factors is likely responsible for the unusual severity of the event, and hence a long return period

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate associated with different ENSO phases by ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts

Predictability of the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate associated with different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases is investigated in this study based on the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES. During the period from 1960 to 2005, the models well capture the WNP summer climate anomalies during most of years in different ENSO phases except the La Niña decaying summers. In the El Niño developing, El Niño decaying and La Niña developing summers, the prediction skills are high for the WNP summer monsoon index (WNPMI), with the prediction correlation larger than 0.7. The high prediction skills of the lower-tropospheric circulation during these phases are found mainly over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and subtropical WNP. These good predictions correspond well to their close teleconnection with ENSO and the high prediction skills of tropical SSTs. By contrast, for the La Niña decaying summers, the prediction skills are considerably low with the prediction correlation for the WNPMI near to zero and low prediction skills around the Philippines and subtropical WNP. These poor predictions relate to the weak summer anomalies of the WNPMI during the La Niña decaying years and no significant connections between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies and the SSTs over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean in observations. However, the models tend to predict an apparent anomalous cyclone over the WNP during the La Niña decaying years, indicating a linearity of the circulation response over WNP in the models prediction in comparison with that during the El Niño decaying years which differs from observations. In addition, the models show considerable capability in describing the WNP summer anomalies during the ENSO neutral summers. These anomalies are related to the positive feedback between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation and the local SSTs. The models can capture this positive feedback but with some uncertainties from different ensemble members during the ENSO neutral summers.

Liushou women’s happiness and its influencing factors in rural China

The economic development of urban cities in China has attracted a large number of labour from the rural countryside. The married migrant workers will usually leave their wives’ homes to look after the other family members and the farmland. A special term liushou women, has been created for this group of women. Among the 87 million rural residents, 47 million of them are liushou women according to the recent survey conducted by China Agricultural University. They play a crucial role in the development of rural economy and an essential role to the social stability of rural China. In this research, the factors that influence the happiness of liushou women were investigated in the Western part of China. Based on the population investigated, it was found that the financial situation, personality, government efficiency, conjugal relationship and relationship with in-laws are the significant factors influencing the happiness of liushou women. This finding demonstrates that the Chinese women are willing to sacrifice their personal interest for the interests of their families.

Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.

A Spatial Comparison of Short and Long Term Migration Trends in China

China’s floating population, those individuals who have migrated between counties or provinces for a period of longer than 6 months, account for 79 million individuals. If intracounty migration is also included, the number jumps to 145 million individuals or over 11% of the total population. This study examines the geographical differences in short and long term migration using ArcGIS to manipulate the spatial GIS data. The study shows that both short and long term migration (in absolute numbers) occurs more frequently near cities and in coastal regions. However, by normalizing the data by population size, the study eliminates the problems of population size on the size of the migrants. Using this normalized data, the study finds that western and northern counties have a large number of migrants present relative to the size of the population. Determining where this floating population migrates helps explain regional inequalities in employment opportunities.

Defining leadership in China: a literature review – how is leadership defined in China by scholars based on a review of published researches since 2000?

A partir do ano de 2000, o processo de internacionalização da China se intensificou e tornou ainda mais visível as diferenças culturais diante das perspectivas Ocidentais. Uma delas é a divergência entre as práticas de gestão e liderança. Baseada em uma revisão de literatura de 234 artigos publicados em periódicos com fator de impacto acima de 1.0, esta dissertação identifica como estudiosos definem liderança na China desde 2000 até hoje. Os resultados podem ser divididos em três grupos: perspectiva das Teorias Ocidentais, perspectiva das Teorias Orientais e perspectiva teorias combinadas onde os Estudos Interculturais e a Liderança Transformacional dominaram as perspectivas adotadas pelos pesquisadores (estes incluídos no grupo de perspectiva das Teorias Ocidentais). Na perspectiva das Teorias Orientais, o Confucionismo e o Guanxi foram os mais citados. Enquanto na perspectiva das Teorias Combinadas, Confucionismo e o Guanxi foram misturados com várias Teorias Ocidentais. Portanto, embora haja uma forte cultura local, a perspectiva mais adotada pelos periódicos internacionais e estudiosos para olhar a e analisar a liderança na China foram os Estudos Interculturais e a Liderança Transformacional.

Coffee house consumer behavior in Changsha, China

Women in Changsha are patronizing coffee-houses, ordering beverages and sweets, and disliking the taste of the expensive product purchased. This thesis is an exploratory research study conducted in Changsha, China with a consumer behavior focus. It uses primary surveys and interviews in addition to secondary sources from books, articles, and academic journals. It seeks to identify underlying motives for purchasing behavior from working women in the developing third-tier city Changsha, Hunan, China. It delves into the psychology of the working women who spend their hard-earned discretionary incomes at costly western chain coffee-houses. The inland mass-market consumer class feels the desire to project their newly established status while needing to save money for their personal future, their children’s schooling, and their parent’s retirement. They must wisely spend discretionary income while satisfying social societal norms. An individual’s self-concept plays and important role in determining which coffee shop she will frequent and what she will order. Daylight Donuts, Starbucks, Costa Coffee and local café’s all serve brewed coffee but they have different associations. This study aims at understanding the influencing factors associated with coffee-house brand equity and how the consumer’s perception of the brand forms her purchasing behavior. All coffee-house brands are relatively new in Changsha, none existing more than seven years. They do not have lasting ties with the community and need to create consumer relationships to ensure sustainability. Changsha women are bold and strong willed. If a corporation is to succeed in the future of Hunan, it will need to create an environment of hospitality excellence, place socially responsible roots in the society, and ask its customers what they want.

Intrusiones de la corriente de Kuroshio en el mar de China oriental

[EN]The Kuroshio is known to intrude onto the continental shelf in the southern East China Sea northeast of Taiwan. Two types of intrusions are observed: large and small, depending on how far the Kuroshio penetrates onto the ECS continental shelf, and on the location where it crosses the shelf break. This study demonstrates that cyclonic eddies from the western Pacific induce some of these large Kuroshio intrusions. The large intrusions are identified from more than 20 years of drifter tracks archived in the Global Drifter Program historical database and from weekly and biweekly drifter deployments carried out between April 2008 and September 2009 west of the Green Island (Taiwan). Kuroshio intrusions are observed in all seasons. Cyclonic mesoscale eddies, generated in the Subtropical Countercurrent and North Equatorial Current regions of the northwest Pacific Ocean, propagate westward into the Kuroshio and are well correlated with the observed intrusions. During the intrusions, the mean sea level anomaly computed from AVISO gridded maps shows a well defined cyclonic circulation southeast of the I-Lan ridge. The mean sea level anomaly also shows the meandering pattern of the Kuroshio when it intrudes onto the continental shelf of the southern East China Sea. The high correlation between the Kuroshio volume transport in the East Taiwan Channel (observed with moorings) and the satellite sea level anomaly permits us to use sea level anomaly as a proxy for the Kuroshio volume transport. When direct transport measurements are not available, this proxy is used to verify that intrusions due to the westward propagating eddies occur when the Kuroshio transport is low. An analytical reduced gravity model of an incident baroclinic current upon a step shelf is used to explain the difference between the large and small intrusions.

Kuroshio Intrusion and the Circulation in the South China Sea

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) and its seasonal transition. Kuroshio enters ( leaves) the SCS through the southern ( northern) portion of the Luzon Strait. The annually averaged net volume flux through the Luzon Strait is similar to2 Sv into the SCS with seasonal reversals. The inflow season is from May to January with the maximum intrusion of Kuroshio water reaching the western SCS during fall in compensation of summertime surface offshore transport associated with coastal upwelling. From February to April the net transport reverses from the SCS to the Pacific. The intruded Kuroshio often forms an anticyclonic current loop west of the Luzon Strait. The current loop separates near the Dongsha Islands with the northward branch continuously feeding the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) near the shelf break and the westward branch becoming the South China Sea Branch of Kuroshio on the slope, which is most apparent in the fall. The SCSWC appears from December to February on the seaward side of the shelf break, flowing eastward against the prevailing wind. Diagnosis shows that the onshore Ekman transport due to northeasterly monsoon generates upwelling when moving upslope, and the particular distributions of the density and sea level associated with the cross shelf motion supports the SCSWC.

Policy Change in Comparative Contexts: Applying the Advocacy Coalition Framework Outside of Western Europe and North America

The advocacy coalition framework (ACF) is one of the most frequently applied theories of the policy process. Most applications have been in Western Europe and North America. This article provides an overview of the ACF, summarizes existing applications outside of Western Europe and North America, and introduces the special issue that features applications of the ACF in the Philippines, China, India, and Kenya. This article concludes with an argument for the continued application of the ACF outside of Western Europe and North America and a research agenda for overcoming challenges in using the ACF in comparative public policy research.

Nitrogen isotopic composition in South China Sea sediments

The d15N of surface and down-core sediments spanning the last 20-200 kyr from the entire South China Sea (SCS) ranges only from ~3.0 to ~6.5 per mil, with no correlation with discernible paleoclimatic/oceanographic changes. Detailed profiles of the uppermost sediment column, including fluff samples, indicate a minor diagenetic overprint of 0.3-1.2 per mil at the sediment-water interface. The absence of any correlation with reconstructed (glacial-interglacial) changes in primary production, terrigenous input, and/or sea level related basin configuration is attributed to a complete consumption of nitrate during primary production in this marginal basin during at least the last 140,000 years. This, in turn, implies that the d15N of the nitrate used during primary production remained approximately constant during the last climatic cycle. The proposed scenario infers an unchanged nitrogen isotopic composition of the western Pacific subsurface nitrate between glacial and interglacial stages as well as during terminations and thus constrains proposed changes in the oceanic N inventory.

Late Miocene development of the western Pacific warm pool: Planktonic foraminifer and oxygen isotopic evidence

The disappearance at ~10 Ma of the deep dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globoquadrina dehiscens from the western Pacific including the South China Sea was about 3 Myr earlier than its final extinction elsewhere. Accompanying this event at ~10 Ma was a series of faunal turnover characterized by increase in mixed layer, warm-water species and decrease to a minimum in deepwater species. Paleobiological and isotopic evidence indicates sea surface warming and a deepened local thermocline that we interpret as related to the development of an early western Pacific warm pool. The stepwise decline of G. dehiscens and other deep dwelling species from the NW and SW Pacific suggests more intensive warm water pileup than equatorial localities where surface bypass flow through the narrowing Indonesia seaway appears to remain efficient during the late Miocene. Planktonic delta18O values from the South China Sea consistently lighter than the tropical western Pacific during the Miocene also suggest, similar to today, more variable hydrologic conditions along the periphery than in the core of the warm pool. Stronger hydrologic variability affected mainly by monsoons and increased thermal gradient along the western margin of the late Miocene warm pool may have contributed to the decline of deep dwelling planktonic species including the early extinction of G. dehiscens from the South China Sea region. The late Miocene warm pool became influential and paleobiologically detectable from ~10 Ma, but the modern warm pool did not appear until about 4 Ma, in the middle Pliocene.