Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Desenvolvimento de uma caixa de redução para veículo Baja SAE

A gear Box in a Baja SAE vehicle is required due to the objectives of the SAE competitions, which the vehicles are challenged to pass through different obstacles. A powertrain system has as the main objective the extension of the torque for the traction shaft of the vehicle, when compared to that one available in the engine. The Objective of this thesis is the description of a gear box project for a Baja SAE vehicle of the Piratas do Vale Team of Unesp Guaratinguetá. In the development of the thesis, a flowchart, developed by the team, was used, which includes a theory part and also the choice of shelf components. In this Project, the type of gearbox was chosen, besides the calculation of axles, gears, bearings and sealers, and software simulations were done for the critical parts. The transmission, developed in this thesis, is more complex than the current one used by the team, but the new one shows improvements, as a new reverse gear with high torque

Estudo da viabilidade da implantação de frotas de veículos elétricos e híbridos elétricos no atual cenário econômico, político, energético e ambiental brasileiro

Currently there are two car models that use electricity in their propulsion systems, the electric vehicle and the hybrid electric vehicle. The electric vehicles are classified as vehicles that use electric motors in their propulsion system and batteries as a power source, on the other hand, the hybrid vehicles are classified as vehicles that use both electric motors and internal combustion engines in their propulsion system, using both batteries and líquid fuels as a power source. The main goal of this work is to analyze the characteristics of electric and hybrid electric vehicles and demonstrate the unfeasibility of the electric vehicle in the current economic, political, energetic and environmental brazilian scenario, for this purpose it was realized a study about the current brazilian situation regarding to electricity generation, current conservation status of road network, lack of electrical infrastructure for charging batteries, national lithium reserves, environmental characteristics, tax incentives, economic scenario, oil market and political positioning related to the implantation of electric or hybrid electric fleets in nacional territory. The operational characteristics analysis of electric and hybrid electric vehicles in this current scenario leads to the conclusion that currently a growth of electric vehicles fleets on a national scale is totally impractical in the Brazil, Thus, the introduction of green vehicles probably will occur primarily with hybrid electric models, motivated mainly due the bigger autonomy of this models compared to electric models, lower cost of hybrid electric models compared to electric models, factors related to the lack of recharging infrastructure and also factors related to political positioning

Avaliação dos níveis de vibração no operador de um trator agrícola ensaiado em pista normatizada em diferentes velocidades de deslocamento

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Fatores que Influenciam a flexibilidade da produção de veículos comerciais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEG

Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Desenvolvimento de uma caixa de redução para veículo Baja SAE

A gear Box in a Baja SAE vehicle is required due to the objectives of the SAE competitions, which the vehicles are challenged to pass through different obstacles. A powertrain system has as the main objective the extension of the torque for the traction shaft of the vehicle, when compared to that one available in the engine. The Objective of this thesis is the description of a gear box project for a Baja SAE vehicle of the Piratas do Vale Team of Unesp Guaratinguetá. In the development of the thesis, a flowchart, developed by the team, was used, which includes a theory part and also the choice of shelf components. In this Project, the type of gearbox was chosen, besides the calculation of axles, gears, bearings and sealers, and software simulations were done for the critical parts. The transmission, developed in this thesis, is more complex than the current one used by the team, but the new one shows improvements, as a new reverse gear with high torque

Estudo da viabilidade da implantação de frotas de veículos elétricos e híbridos elétricos no atual cenário econômico, político, energético e ambiental brasileiro

Currently there are two car models that use electricity in their propulsion systems, the electric vehicle and the hybrid electric vehicle. The electric vehicles are classified as vehicles that use electric motors in their propulsion system and batteries as a power source, on the other hand, the hybrid vehicles are classified as vehicles that use both electric motors and internal combustion engines in their propulsion system, using both batteries and líquid fuels as a power source. The main goal of this work is to analyze the characteristics of electric and hybrid electric vehicles and demonstrate the unfeasibility of the electric vehicle in the current economic, political, energetic and environmental brazilian scenario, for this purpose it was realized a study about the current brazilian situation regarding to electricity generation, current conservation status of road network, lack of electrical infrastructure for charging batteries, national lithium reserves, environmental characteristics, tax incentives, economic scenario, oil market and political positioning related to the implantation of electric or hybrid electric fleets in nacional territory. The operational characteristics analysis of electric and hybrid electric vehicles in this current scenario leads to the conclusion that currently a growth of electric vehicles fleets on a national scale is totally impractical in the Brazil, Thus, the introduction of green vehicles probably will occur primarily with hybrid electric models, motivated mainly due the bigger autonomy of this models compared to electric models, lower cost of hybrid electric models compared to electric models, factors related to the lack of recharging infrastructure and also factors related to political positioning

Avaliação dos níveis de vibração no operador de um trator agrícola ensaiado em pista normatizada em diferentes velocidades de deslocamento

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

O estigma da esquizofrenia na mídia: um levantamento de notícias publicadas em veículos brasileiros de grande circulação

CONTEXTO: O estigma que pesa sobre as doenças psiquiátricas é o mais forte impedimento para que o paciente busque tratamento, mais até que a dificuldade de acesso aos serviços de saúde. A esquizofrenia também é a doença mais usada hoje como metáfora na mídia, aparecendo rotineiramente associada a crimes e violência. OBJETIVOS: Avaliação da presença do estigma estrutural na mídia brasileira por meio do levantamento de notícias em imprensa e internet que utilizam o termo "esquizofrenia" e correlatos ("esquizofrênico/a") sob três aspectos: (a) uso médico e científico; (b) atribuição do diagnóstico de esquizofrenia a suspeitos de crimes com pouco ou nenhum rigor médico ou científico; (c) uso metafórico. MÉTODOS: O estudo foi realizado em três etapas: levantamento de notícias, classificação dos itens encontrados e análise do contexto em que foram publicados. O levantamento foi realizado em dois períodos - 2008 e 2011 -, sendo o primeiro restrito ao jornal Folha de S. Paulo e o segundo ampliado para os portais dos principais veículos impressos brasileiros. RESULTADOS: Foram encontrados 229 textos, distribuídos da seguinte forma: 89 (39%) registros em ciência e saúde, com tendência à impessoalidade; 62 (27%) registros em crime e violência, em que o "diagnóstico" de esquizofrenia é feito por leigos e "corroborado" por uma arqueologia da vida do suspeito que arrola toda sorte de comportamentos fora de padrão; 78 (34%) de uso metafórico, sempre de caráter depreciativo. CONCLUSÕES: A maioria dos textos encontrados (a) não dá voz ao portador de esquizofrenia e a seu sofrimento, (b) banaliza a doença psiquiátrica ao empregá-la fora de contexto para caracterizar decisões políticas e econômicas contraditórias ou de caráter duvidoso e (c) reforça o estigma que pesa sobre o portador de esquizofrenia ao personalizá-lo apenas nos raros casos de violência em que se supõe seu diagnóstico.