What is the Jacobian of a Riemann surface with boundary?

We define the Jacobian of a Riemann surface with analytically parametrized boundary components. These Jacobians belong to a moduli space of "open abelian varieties" which satisfies gluing axioms similar to those of Riemann surfaces, and therefore allows a notion of "conformal field theory" to be defined on this space. We further prove that chiral conformal field theories corresponding to even lattices factor through this moduli space of open abelian varieties.

Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model

There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved Vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegration. This is despite the fact that cointegration plays an important role in informing macroeconomists on a range of issues. In this paper we develop time varying parameter models which permit cointegration. Time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) typically use state space representations to model the evolution of parameters. In this paper, we show that it is not sensible to use straightforward extensions of TVP-VARs when allowing for cointegration. Instead we develop a specification which allows for the cointegrating space to evolve over time in a manner comparable to the random walk variation used with TVP-VARs. The properties of our approach are investigated before developing a method of posterior simulation. We use our methods in an empirical investigation involving a permanent/transitory variance decomposition for inflation.

Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs

In this paper we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large timevarying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). To overcome computational constraints with likelihood-based estimation of large systems, we rely on Kalman filter estimation with forgetting factors. We also draw on ideas from the dynamic model averaging literature and extend the TVP-VAR so that its dimension can change over time. A final extension lies in the development of a new method for estimating, in a time-varying manner, the parameter(s) of the shrinkage priors commonly-used with large VARs. These extensions are operationalized through the use of forgetting factor methods and are, thus, computationally simple. An empirical application involving forecasting inflation, real output, and interest rates demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of our approach.

Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models

This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selecting (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact approach to DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an in ation forecasting application. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and investigate whether they lead to similar results.

On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

Near-linear dynamics in KdV with periodic boundary conditions

Near linear evolution in Korteweg de Vries (KdV) equation with periodic boundary conditions is established under the assumption of high frequency initial data. This result is obtained by the method of normal form reduction.

Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A one-dimensional Keller-Segel equation with a drift issued from the boundary

We investigate in this note the dynamics of a one-dimensional Keller-Segel type model on the half-line. On the contrary to the classical configuration, the chemical production term is located on the boundary. We prove, under suitable assumptions, the following dichotomy which is reminiscent of the two-dimensional Keller-Segel system. Solutions are global if the mass is below the critical mass, they blow-up in finite time above the critical mass, and they converge to some equilibrium at the critical mass. Entropy techniques are presented which aim at providing quantitative convergence results for the subcritical case. This note is completed with a brief introduction to a more realistic model (still one-dimensional).

Triassic stratigraphic evolution of the Arabian-Greater India embayment of the southern Tethys margin

An exceptional, tectonically remarkably unaffected, nearly 200 m-thick continuous section of hemipelagic and turbiditic sediments, covering most of the Triassic is described from the Batain Complex of north-eastern Oman. According to conodont and radiolarian data the sequence spans the late Scythian to the early Norian, a time period of nearly 30 M. Coupled with a high resolution stratigraphy, the lithostratigraphy, sedimentology, as well as sequence and isotope stratigraphy of the section are documented. For the Triassic of the Batain Plain we propose the new name Sal Formation, which replaces the formerly used Matbat Formation, and subdivide it into three new members. The Sal Formation was deposited on the proximal continental margin of northeastern Arabia and records various depositional environments. The lower member is interpreted as the distal part of a homoclinal ramp which evolves to a distally steepened ramp during time of deposition of the middle member. The upper member displays a toe of slope position which is indicated by an increase of proximal turbidites. These sediments form part of a segment of the Neo-Tethyan embayment between Arabia and India. The stratigraphic analysis indicates highly varying sedimentation rates from a minimum of 2 m/M gamma around the Anisian/Ladinian boundary up to 15 m/M gamma during the Lower and Upper Triassic. Sequence-stratigraphically, the Sal section is subdivided into six third order cycles which are biochronologically well integrated into the global Triassic cycle chart. The mixed siliciclastic-calcareous upper member of the Sal Formation typically shows highstand related carbonate shedding. It is, therefore, an important test case for sequence-stratigraphic controlled carbonate export to mixed basin fills. The well developed sequence stratigraphic cycles are mirrored in the isotope patterns. Additionally, the carbon and oxygen isotope data from the Sal Formation record the same chemostratigraphic marker at the Spathian/Anisian boundary known from other Tethyan sections.

Improving the accuracy of heat balance integral methods applied to thermal problems with time dependent boundary conditions

In this paper the two main drawbacks of the heat balance integral methods are examined. Firstly we investigate the choice of approximating function. For a standard polynomial form it is shown that combining the Heat Balance and Refined Integral methods to determine the power of the highest order term will either lead to the same, or more often, greatly improved accuracy on standard methods. Secondly we examine thermal problems with a time-dependent boundary condition. In doing so we develop a logarithmic approximating function. This new function allows us to model moving peaks in the temperature profile, a feature that previous heat balance methods cannot capture. If the boundary temperature varies so that at some time t & 0 it equals the far-field temperature, then standard methods predict that the temperature is everywhere at this constant value. The new method predicts the correct behaviour. It is also shown that this function provides even more accurate results, when coupled with the new CIM, than the polynomial profile. Analysis primarily focuses on a specified constant boundary temperature and is then extended to constant flux, Newton cooling and time dependent boundary conditions.

An approximate solution method for boundary layer flow of a power law fluid over a flat plate

The work in this paper deals with the development of momentum and thermal boundary layers when a power law fluid flows over a flat plate. At the plate we impose either constant temperature, constant flux or a Newton cooling condition. The problem is analysed using similarity solutions, integral momentum and energy equations and an approximation technique which is a form of the Heat Balance Integral Method. The fluid properties are assumed to be independent of temperature, hence the momentum equation uncouples from the thermal problem. We first derive the similarity equations for the velocity and present exact solutions for the case where the power law index n = 2. The similarity solutions are used to validate the new approximation method. This new technique is then applied to the thermal boundary layer, where a similarity solution can only be obtained for the case n = 1.

Leishmania (Leishmania) major-infected rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) develop varying levels of resistance against homologous re-infections

Seven rhesus macaques were infected intradermally with 10(7) promastigotes of Leishmania (Leishmania) major. All monkeys developed a localized, ulcerative, self-healing nodular skin lesion at the site of inoculation of the parasite. Non-specific chronic inflammation and/or tuberculoid-type granulomatous reaction were the main histopathological manifestations of the disease. Serum Leishmania-specific antibodies (IgG and IgG1) were detected by ELISA in all infected animals; immunoblot analyses indicated that numerous antigens were recognized. A very high degree of variability was observed in the parasite-specific cell-mediated immune responses [as detected by measuring delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) reaction, in vitro lymphocyte proliferation, and gamma interferon (IFN-gamma) production] for individuals over time post challenge. From all the recovered monkeys (which showed resolution of the lesions after 11 weeks of infection), 57.2% (4/7) and 28.6% (2/7) animals remained susceptible to secondary and tertiary infections, respectively, but the disease severity was altered (i.e. lesion size was smaller and healed faster than in the primary infection). The remaining monkeys exhibited complete resistance (i.e. no lesion) to each rechallenge. Despite the inability to consistently detect correlates of cell-mediated immunity to Leishmania or correlation between resistance to challenge and DTH, lymphocyte transformation or IFN-gamma production, partial or complete acquired resistance was conferred by experimental infection. This primate model should be useful for measuring vaccine effectiveness against the human disease.