Can risk management boost the supply of affordable housing development and management?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit affordable housing providers in South East Queensland, and draw conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences.----- Design/methodology/approach: In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. Qualitative data are analysed using thematic analysis to find emerging themes suggested by interview participants.----- Findings: The paper finds that informal risk management process is used as part of normal business process in accordance with industry standards. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. The levels of acceptance of risk are not always consistent across housing providers which create opportunities to conduct multi-stakeholder partnership to reduce overall risk.----- Research limitations/implications: The paper has implications for developers or investors who seek to include affordable housing as part of their portfolio. However, data collected in the study are a cross-section of interviews that will not include the impact on recent tax incentives offers by the Australian Commonwealth Government.----- Practical implications: The study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.----- Originality/value: The focus of the study is the interaction between partnerships and risk management in development and management of affordable rental housing.

Microbial risk from rainwater tanks in South East Queensland

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) analysis was used to quantify the risk of infection associated with the exposure to pathogens from potable and non-potable uses of roof-harvested rainwater in South East Queensland (SEQ). A total of 84 rainwater samples were analysed for the presence of faecal indicators (using culture based methods) and zoonotic bacterial and protozoan pathogens using binary and quantitative PCR (qPCR). The concentrations of Salmonella invA, and Giardia lamblia β-giradin genes ranged from 65-380 genomic units/1000 mL and 9-57 genomic units/1000 mL of water, respectively. After converting gene copies to cell/cyst number, the risk of infection from G. lamblia and Salmonella spp. associated with the use of rainwater for bi-weekly garden hosing was calculated to be below the threshold value of 1 extra infection per 10,000 persons per year. However, the estimated risk of infection from drinking the rainwater daily was 44-250 (for G. lamblia) and 85-520 (for Salmonella spp.) infections per 10,000 persons per year. Since this health risk seems higher than that expected from the reported incidences of gastroenteritis, the assumptions used to estimate these infection risks are critically discussed. Nevertheless, it would seem prudent to disinfect rainwater for potable use.

The malnutrition screening tool is a useful tool for identifying malnutrition risk in residential aged care

Background: The Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) is a valid nutrition screening tool in the acute hospital setting but has not been assessed in residential aged care facilities. The aim of this secondary analysis was to determine whether the MST could be a useful nutrition screening tool when compared with a full nutrition assessment by Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) in the residential aged care setting. ----- Methods: Two hundred and eighty-five residents (29% male; mean age: 84 ± 9 years) from eight residential aged care facilities in Australia participated. A secondary analysis of data collected during a nutrition intervention study was conducted. The MST consists of two questions related to recent weight loss and appetite. While the MST was not specifically applied, weight loss and appetite information was available and an estimated MST score (0-5) calculated. Nutritional status was assessed by a research assistant trained in using SGA. ----- Results: Malnutrition prevalence was 42.8% (122 malnourished out of 285 residents). Compared to the SGA, the MST was an effective predictor of nutritional risk (sensitivity = 83.6%, specificity = 65.6%, positive predictive value = 0.65, negative predictive value =0.84). ----- Conclusions: The components of the MST have acceptable sensitivity and specificity suggesting it can play a valuable role in quickly identifying malnutrition risk in the residential aged care setting. Further prospective research using the MST tool against a broader array of objective and subjective nutritional parameters is required to confirm its validity as a screening tool in aged care settings.

Can book-to-market and size be risk factors that predict economic growth in Asia's emerging economies?

We investigate whether the two 2 zero cost portfolios, SMB and HML, have the ability to predict economic growth for markets investigated in this paper. Our findings show that there are only a limited number of cases when the coefficients are positive and significance is achieved in an even more limited number of cases. Our results are in stark contrast to Liew and Vassalou (2000) who find coefficients to be generally positive and of a similar magnitude. We go a step further and also employ the methodology of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994) and once again fail to support the risk-based hypothesis of Liew and Vassalou (2000). In sum, we argue that search for a robust economic explanation for firm size and book-to-market equity effects needs sustained effort as these two zero cost portfolios do not represent economically relevant risk.

Fashion as consumer entrepreneurship : emergent risk culture, social network markets, and the launch of Vogue in China

China has a reputation as an economy based on utility: the large-scale manufacture of low-priced goods. But useful values like functionality, fitness for purpose and efficiency are only part of the story. More important are what Veblen called ‘honorific’ values, arguably the driving force of development, change and value in any economy. To understand the Chinese economy therefore, it is not sufficient to point to its utilitarian aspect. Honorific status-competition is a more fundamental driver than utilitarian cost-competition. We argue that ‘social network markets’ are the expression of these honorific values, relationships and connections that structure and coordinate individual choices. This paper explores how such markets are developing in China in the area of fashion and fashion media. These, we argue, are an expression of ‘risk culture’ for high-end entrepreneurial consumers and producers alike, providing a stimulus to dynamic innovation in the arena of personal taste and comportment, as part of an international cultural system based on constant change. We examine the launch of Vogue China in 2005, and China’s reception as a fashion player among the international editions of Vogue, as an expression of a ‘decisive moment’ in the integration of China into an international social network market based on honorific values.

Health risk from the use of roof-harvested rainwater in Southeast Queensland, Australia, as potable or nonpotable water, determined using quantitative microbial risk assessment

A total of 214 rainwater samples from 82 tanks were collected in urban Southeast Queensland (SEQ) in Australia and analysed for the zoonotic bacterial and protozoan pathogen using real-time binary PCR and quantitative PCR (qPCR). Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) analysis was used to quantify the risk of infection associated with the exposure to potential pathogens from potable and non-potable uses of roof-harvested rainwater. Of the 214 samples tested, 10.7%, 9.8%, and 5.6%, and 0.4% samples were positive for Salmonella invA, Giardia lamblia β-giardin , Legionella pneumophila mip, and Campylobacter jejuni mapA genes. Cryptosporidium parvum could not be detected. The estimated numbers of viable Salmonella spp., G. lamblia β-giradin, and L. pneumophila genes ranged from 1.6 × 101 to 9.5 × 101 cells, 1.4 × 10-1 to 9.0 × 10-1 cysts, and 1.5 × 101 to 4.3 × 101 per 1000 ml of water, respectively. Six risk scenarios were considered from exposure to Salmonella spp., G. lamblia and L. pneumophila. For Salmonella spp., and G. lamblia, these scenarios were: (1) liquid ingestion due to drinking of rainwater on a daily basis (2) accidental liquid ingestion due to garden hosing twice a week (3) aerosol ingestion due to showering on a daily basis, and (4) aerosol ingestion due to hosing twice a week. For L. pneumophila, these scenarios were: (5) aerosol inhalation due to showering on a daily basis, and (6) aerosol inhalation due to hosing twice a week. The risk of infection from Salmonella spp., G. lamblia, and L. pneumophila associated with the use of rainwater for showering and garden hosing was calculated to be well below the threshold value of one extra infection per 10,000 persons per year in urban SEQ. However, the risk of infection from ingesting Salmonella spp. and G. lamblia via drinking exceeds this threshold value, and indicates that if undisinfected rainwater were ingested by drinking, then the gastrointestinal diseases of Salmonellosis and Giardiasis is expected to range from 5.0 × 100 to 2.8 × 101 (Salmonellosis) and 1.0 × 101 to 6.4 × 101 (Giardiasis) cases per 10,000 persons per year, respectively. Since this health risk seems higher than that expected from the reported incidences of gastroenteritis, the assumptions used to estimate these infection risks are critically examined. Nonetheless, it would seem prudent to disinfect rainwater for potable use.

Mapping the territory of economic risk

It is widely contended that we live in a „world risk society‟, where risk plays a central and ubiquitous role in contemporary social life. A seminal contributor to this view is Ulrich Beck, who claims that our world is governed by dangers that cannot be calculated or insured against. For Beck, risk is an inherently unrestrained phenomenon, emerging from a core and pouring out from and under national borders, unaffected by state power. Beck‟s focus on risk's ubiquity and uncontrollability at an infra-global level means that there is a necessary evenness to the expanse of risk: a "universalization of hazards‟, which possess an inbuilt tendency towards globalisation. While sociological scholarship has examined the reach and impact of globalisation processes on the role and power of states, Beck‟s argument that economic risk is without territory and resistant to domestic policy has come under less appraisal. This is contestable: what are often described as global economic processes, on closer inspection, reveal degrees of territorial embeddedness. This not only suggests that "global‟ flows could sometimes be more appropriately explained as international, regional or even local processes, formed from and responsive to state strategies – but also demonstrates what can be missed if we overinflate the global. This paper briefly introduces two key principles of Beck's theory of risk society and positions them within a review of literature debating the novelty and degree of global economic integration and its impact on states pursuing domestic economic policies. In doing so, this paper highlights the value for future research to engage with questions such as "is economic risk really without territory‟ and "does risk produce convergence‟, not so much as a means of reducing Beck's thesis to a purely empirical analysis, but rather to avoid limiting our scope in understanding the complex relationship between risk and state.

Waist circumference cut-off values for the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors clustering in Chinese school-aged children : a cross-sectional study

Background: Waist circumference has been identified as a valuable predictor of cardiovascular risk in children. The development of waist circumference percentiles and cut-offs for various ethnic groups are necessary because of differences in body composition. The purpose of this study was to develop waist circumference percentiles for Chinese children and to explore optimal waist circumference cut-off values for predicting cardiovascular risk factors clustering in this population.----- ----- Methods: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured in 5529 children (2830 boys and 2699 girls) aged 6-12 years randomly selected from southern and northern China. Blood pressure, fasting triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose were obtained in a subsample (n = 1845). Smoothed percentile curves were produced using the LMS method. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was used to derive the optimal age- and gender-specific waist circumference thresholds for predicting the clustering of cardiovascular risk factors.----- ----- Results: Gender-specific waist circumference percentiles were constructed. The waist circumference thresholds were at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 67% to 83%. The odds ratio of a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors among boys and girls with a higher value than cut-off points was 10.349 (95% confidence interval 4.466 to 23.979) and 8.084 (95% confidence interval 3.147 to 20.767) compared with their counterparts.----- ----- Conclusions: Percentile curves for waist circumference of Chinese children are provided. The cut-off point for waist circumference to predict cardiovascular risk factors clustering is at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively.

Controlling chaos? The value and the challenges of applying complexity theory to project management

The literature abounds with descriptions of failures in high-profile projects and a range of initiatives has been generated to enhance project management practice (e.g., Morris, 2006). Estimating from our own research, there are scores of other project failures that are unrecorded. Many of these failures can be explained using existing project management theory; poor risk management, inaccurate estimating, cultures of optimism dominating decision making, stakeholder mismanagement, inadequate timeframes, and so on. Nevertheless, in spite of extensive discussion and analysis of failures and attention to the presumed causes of failure, projects continue to fail in unexpected ways. In the 1990s, three U.S. state departments of motor vehicles (DMV) cancelled major projects due to time and cost overruns and inability to meet project goals (IT-Cortex, 2010). The California DMV failed to revitalize their drivers’ license and registration application process after spending $45 million. The Oregon DMV cancelled their five year, $50 million project to automate their manual, paper-based operation after three years when the estimates grew to $123 million; its duration stretched to eight years or more and the prototype was a complete failure. In 1997, the Washington state DMV cancelled their license application mitigation project because it would have been too big and obsolete by the time it was estimated to be finished. There are countless similar examples of projects that have been abandoned or that have not delivered the requirements.

Risk, trust, and consumer online purchasing behaviour : a Chilean perspective

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate Latin American online purchase behaviour with a specific focus on the influence of perceived risk and trust. While studies of this nature have been conducted quite extensively in developed countries, their application in developing countries, such as Latin America is limited. Our study addresses this gap in the literature with an empirical study conducted in Chile. Design/methodology/approach: The authors develop and test a proposed model of the influence of consumer’s perceptions of risk and trust on their attitudes and intentions to purchase on the Internet. An online survey method is used. The sample consists of 176 Chilean consumers who have made at least one purchase online. The data is analysed using structural equation modelling technique (SEM). Findings: The analysis revealed that of the perceived risk and trust factors examined, trust in third party assurances and a cultural environment of trust had the strongest positive influence on intentions to continuing purchasing online. Perceived risk had an inverse relationship with attitude and consumers’ attitude has a positive influence on intentions to purchase online. Trust in online vendors and a propensity to trust were both insignificant. Practical implications: Practically, these results identity which risk and trust beliefs towards purchasing online have the most effect thereby providing insights into how companies should seek to mitigate perceptions of risk to encourage new and return purchasers. Additionally, this research shows that consumers in a Latin American country, recognised as a collectivist, high risk avoidance culture, are willing to make purchases online despite the risks involved. Originality/value: The study and its results is one of few available that consider a Latin American context. The value of the findings provides insights into the specific risk and trust factors that influence Chilean consumers when considering purchasing online. The tested model adds value not only to the literature on Latin American consumer behaviour but also provides guidance for companies offering online retailing facilities in these less developed countries.

Unlocking risk allocation and equitable conversion : reform of the passing of risk in the sale of land

The principles relating to the passing of risk under a contract for the sale of real property would seem to have been long settled. The rule under the general law is that the risk of loss of the subject matter under a contract for the sale of real property passes to the buyer upon the creation of a valid and binding contract. This article considers the origin of that rule, how it developed with the growth of equity, and advances the view that it is anomalous in a modern context of property dealings. In doing so, the article adverts to the variety of statutory mechanisms used to subvert the rule, few of which are of practical value. It concludes that the rule is outmoded in many respects and suggests a number of reforms which might be implemented nationally to bring consistency and simplicity to the issue of damage or destruction of improvements which are the subject of a land contract.

Risk management and injury prevention : competencies, behaviours, and attitudes to safety in the construction industry

Work in the Australian construction industry is fraught with risk and the potential for serious harm. The industry is consistently placed within the three most hazardous industries to work along with other industries such as mining and transport (National Occupational Health and Safety Commission, 2003). In the 2001 to 2002 period, construction work killed 39 people and injured 13,250 more. Hence, more effort is required to reduce the injury rate and maximise the value of the rehabilitation/back-to-work process.

Earned value management insights using inferential statistics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarise a successfully defended doctoral thesis. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of the scope, and main issues raised in the thesis so that readers undertaking studies in the same or connected areas may be aware of current contributions to the topic. The secondary aims are to frame the completed thesis in the context of doctoral-level research in project management as well as offer ideas for further investigation which would serve to extend scientific knowledge on the topic. Design/methodology/approach – Research reported in this paper is based on a quantitative study using inferential statistics aimed at better understanding the actual and potential usage of earned value management (EVM) as applied to external projects under contract. Theories uncovered during the literature review were hypothesized and tested using experiential data collected from 145 EVM practitioners with direct experience on one or more external projects under contract that applied the methodology. Findings – The results of this research suggest that EVM is an effective project management methodology. The principles of EVM were shown to be significant positive predictors of project success on contracted efforts and to be a relatively greater positive predictor of project success when using fixed-price versus cost-plus (CP) type contracts. Moreover, EVM's work-breakdown structure (WBS) utility was shown to positively contribute to the formation of project contracts. The contribution was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects, with exceptions in the areas of schedule planning and payment planning. EVM's “S” curve benefited the administration of project contracts. The contribution of the S-curve was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects. Furthermore, EVM metrics were shown to also be important contributors to the administration of project contracts. The relative contribution of EVM metrics to projects under fixed-price versus CP contracts was not significantly different, with one exception in the area of evaluating and processing payment requests. Practical implications – These results have important implications for project practitioners, EVM advocates, as well as corporate and governmental policy makers. EVM should be considered for all projects – not only for its positive contribution to project contract development and administration, for its contribution to project success as well, regardless of contract type. Contract type should not be the sole determining factor in the decision whether or not to use EVM. More particularly, the more fixed the contracted project cost, the more the principles of EVM explain the success of the project. The use of EVM mechanics should also be used in all projects regardless of contract type. Payment planning using a WBS should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate performance risk. Schedule planning using a WBS should be emphasized in CP contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate financial risk. Similarly, EVM metrics should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts in evaluating and processing payment requests. Originality/value – This paper provides a summary of cutting-edge research work and a link to the published thesis that researchers can use to help them understand how the research methodology was applied as well as how it can be extended.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

Riding the tide of biopharming in Africa: Considerations for risk assessment

In the past few years, plant biotechnology has gone beyond traditional agricultural production of food, feed and fibre, and moved to address more complex contemporary health, social and industrial challenges. The new era involves production of novel pharmaceutical products, speciality and fine chemicals, phytoremediation and production of renewable energy resources to replace non-renewable fossil fuels. Plants have been shown to provide a genuine and low-cost alternative production system for high-value products. Currently, the principal plant-made products include antibodies, feed additives, vaccine antigens and hormones for human and animal health, and industrial proteins. Despite the unique advantages of scalability, cost and product safety, issues of politics, environmental impact, regulation and socioeconomics still limit the adoption of biopharmaceuticals, especially in the developing world. Plant-based production systems have further complicated biosafety, gene flow and environmental impact assessments with generally genetically modified plants, topics that are already partially understood. This article provides a background to biopharming, highlighting basic considerations for risk assessment and regulation in developing countries, with an emphasis on plant-based vaccine production in South Africa.