The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions

Decadal climate predictions exhibit large biases, which are often subtracted and forgotten. However, understanding the causes of bias is essential to guide efforts to improve prediction systems, and may offer additional benefits. Here the origins of biases in decadal predictions are investigated, including whether analysis of these biases might provide useful information. The focus is especially on the lead-time-dependent bias tendency. A “toy” model of a prediction system is initially developed and used to show that there are several distinct contributions to bias tendency. Contributions from sampling of internal variability and a start-time-dependent forcing bias can be estimated and removed to obtain a much improved estimate of the true bias tendency, which can provide information about errors in the underlying model and/or errors in the specification of forcings. It is argued that the true bias tendency, not the total bias tendency, should be used to adjust decadal forecasts. The methods developed are applied to decadal hindcasts of global mean temperature made using the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), climate model, and it is found that this model exhibits a small positive bias tendency in the ensemble mean. When considering different model versions, it is shown that the true bias tendency is very highly correlated with both the transient climate response (TCR) and non–greenhouse gas forcing trends, and can therefore be used to obtain observationally constrained estimates of these relevant physical quantities.

Variation in the use of chemotherapy in lung cancer

Factors influencing the use of chemotherapy for the initial (6 months) treatment of lung cancer in South East England were investigated. The variables explored as possibly influencing the use of chemotherapy were sex, age, the year of diagnosis, the type of lung cancer, the stage, the index of multiple deprivation and the cancer network of residence. Chi2 analysis and multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the effect of each of the variables on the use of chemotherapy. The results showed a highly significant trend in use of chemotherapy over time; the adjusted proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy increasing from 13.6% in 1994 to 29.3% in 2003. However, age, cancer network and type of lung cancer had the strongest influence on the use of chemotherapy. This finding is important when we consider that the NHS Cancer Plan aims at improving inequalities in cancer care in the UK.

Putting theory to work: the use of theory in construction research

Attention to epistemology, theory use and citation practices are all issues which distinguish academic disciplines from other ways of knowing. Examples from construction research are used to outline and reflect on these issues. In doing so, the discussion provides an introduction to some key issues in social research as well as a reflection on the current state of construction research as a field. More specifically, differences between positivist and interpretivist epistemologies, the role of theory in each and their use by construction researchers are discussed. Philosophical differences are illustrated by appeal to two published construction research articles by Reichstein et al. and Harty on innovation (Reichstein, Salter and Gann, 2005; Harty, 2008). An analysis of citations for each highlights different cumulativity strategies. The potential contribution of mixed research programmes, combining positivist and interpretivist research, is evaluated. The paper should be of interest to early researchers and to scholars concerned with the ongoing development of construction research as an academic field.

Encouraging use of subordination in children’s narratives: a classroom-based priming study

This study investigated the long-term effect of classroom-based input manipulation on children’s use of subordination in a story re-telling task; it also explored the role of receptive vocabulary skills and expressive grammatical abilities in predicting the likelihood of priming. During a two-week priming phase, 47 monolingual English-speaking five- year-olds heard 10 stories, one a day, that either contained a high proportion of subordinate clauses (subordination condition) or a high proportion of coordi- nate clauses (coordination condition). Post-intervention, there was a significant group difference in likelihood of subordinate use which persisted ten weeks after the priming. Neither expressive grammatical nor receptive vocabulary skills were positively correlated with the likelihood of subordinate use. These findings show that input manipulation can have a facilitative effect on the use of complex syntax over several weeks in a realistic communicative task.

On the Use of Agents in a Bioinformatics Grid

MyGrid is an e-Science Grid project that aims to help biologists and bioinformaticians to perform workflow-based in silico experiments, and help them to automate the management of such workflows through personalisation, notification of change and publication of experiments. In this paper, we describe the architecture of myGrid and how it will be used by the scientist. We then show how myGrid can benefit from agents technologies. We have identified three key uses of agent technologies in myGrid: user agents, able to customize and personalise data, agent communication languages offering a generic and portable communication medium, and negotiation allowing multiple distributed entities to reach service level agreements.

Use of gibberellin in floriculture

This review aimed to show the use of gibberellin in floriculture. In this context, it should be noted that the benefit of the activity of the gibberellins has brought major advances in the field of physiology. Its use is one of the most important tools for the development of agriculture. Thus, the study concluded that the use of gibberellins has been increasingly used by producers and is also a vast important subject that may help in increasing the production of flowers if the farms are dedicated to this purpose.

Rational use of antimicrobials in dentistry during pregnancy

The use of medicines during pregnancy deserves special attention from dentists due to the potential risks to fetal development. The prescription of antimicrobial drugs during this period must be based not only on the etiology of the disease but also on the drug's effect on the embryo, which may be toxic, possibly leading to irreversible lesions. Interest in studies of the teratogenic effects of drugs increased in response to reports of the high incidence of phocomelia in patients treated with thalidomide. Although teratogenicity has long been known, pregnant women today are still exposed to this risk. The effects of drugs depend on the level of susceptibility of the fetus and on the period of exposure during pregnancy. In this context, and considering the paucity of studies on this subject in dentistry, the aim of this review was to offer an up-to-date compilation of data on the antimicrobial drugs most frequently used during pregnancy and the effects of their use.

Use of strontium in the activation of bovine oocytes reconstructed by somatic cell nuclear transfer

As an important step in the nuclear transfer (NT) procedure, we evaluated the effect of three different treatments for oocyte activation on the in vitro and in vivo developmental capacity of bovine reconstructed embryos: (1) strontium, which has been successfully used in mice but not yet tested in cattle; (2) ionomycin and 6-dimethylammopurine (6-DMAP), a standard treatment used in cattle; (3) ionomycin and strontium, in place of 6-DMAP. As regards NT blastocyst development, no difference was observed when strontium (20.1%) or ionomycin/6-DMAP (14.4%) were used. However, when 6-DMAP was substituted by strontium (3), the blastocyst rate (34.8%) was superior to that in the other activation groups (p < 0.05). Results of in vivo development showed the possibility of pregnancies when NT embryos activated in strontium were transferred to recipient cows (16.6%). A live female calf was obtained when ionomycin/strontium were used, but it died 30 days after birth. Our findings show that strontium can be used as an activation agent in bovine cloning procedures and that activation with a combination of strontium and ionomycin increased the in vitro developmental capacity of reconstructed embryos. This is the first report of a calf produced by adult somatic cell NT in Latin America.

Systemic use of metronidazole in the treatment of chronic periodontitis: a pilot study using clinical, microbiological, and enzymatic evaluation

The aim of the present parallel, double-blind investigation was to evaluate the effect of using systemic metronidazole alone or associated to scaling and root planing on adult chronic periodontal disease, monitored at baseline, 30, 60 and 90 days. Twelve subjects were divided into three groups: the first group (Group I - 22 sites) was submitted to scaling and root planing (SRP) alone; the second group (Group II - 30 sites) received SRP and 250 mg of metronidazole (3 times a day for 10 days), and the third group (Group III - 31 sites) was treated with metronidazole alone. The clinical parameters evaluated were probing depth (PD), clinical attachment level (CAL), plaque index (PlI), gingival index (GI) and bleeding upon probing (BP). Microbiological (BANA test) and enzymatic (Pocket Watch) tests were also performed. All three proposed treatments produced significant improvements in clinical conditions of subjects, from baseline, 30, 60 and 90-day period, except for clinical attachment level. The results obtained by microbiological and enzymatic tests did not show statistical differences among the groups for the 90-day period (r = 0.7924 and r = 0.7757, respectively). In relation to clinical parameters, statistical differences among groups were observed only for the gingival index (p = 0.0261) between Groups I and II, and probing depth (p = 0.0124) between Group I and the others. We conclude that the use of systemic metronidazole did not produce additional effects on the microbiological conditions of these patients with chronic periodontal disease.