Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about six to nine years. Recent multi-model results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multi-model ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multi-model initialized predictions for near term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6-9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.

A universal agro-hydrological model for water and nitrogen cycles in the soil-crop system SMCR_N: critical update and further validation

Agro-hydrological models have widely been used for optimizing resources use and minimizing environmental consequences in agriculture. SMCRN is a recently developed sophisticated model which simulates crop response to nitrogen fertilizer for a wide range of crops, and the associated leaching of nitrate from arable soils. In this paper, we describe the improvements of this model by replacing the existing approximate hydrological cascade algorithm with a new simple and explicit algorithm for the basic soil water flow equation, which not only enhanced the model performance in hydrological simulation, but also was essential to extend the model application to the situations where the capillary flow is important. As a result, the updated SMCRN model could be used for more accurate study of water dynamics in the soil-crop system. The success of the model update was demonstrated by the simulated results that the updated model consistently out-performed the original model in drainage simulations and in predicting time course soil water content in different layers in the soil-wheat system. Tests of the updated SMCRN model against data from 4 field crop experiments showed that crop nitrogen offtakes and soil mineral nitrogen in the top 90 cm were in a good agreement with the measured values, indicating that the model could make more reliable predictions of nitrogen fate in the crop-soil system, and thus provides a useful platform to assess the impacts of nitrogen fertilizer on crop yield and nitrogen leaching from different production systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hematologically important mutations: X-linked chronic granulomatous disease (third update)

Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is an immunodeficiency disorder affecting about 1 in 250,000 individuals. The disease is caused by a lack of superoxide production by the leukocyte enzyme NADPH oxidase. Superoxide is used to kill phagocytosed micro-organisms in neutrophils, eosinophils, monocytes and macrophages. The leukocyte NADPH oxidase is composed of five subunits, of which the enzymatic component is gp91-phox, also called Nox2. This protein is encoded by the CYBB gene on the X chromosome. Mutations in this gene are found in about 70% of all CGD patients. This article lists all mutations identified in CYBB in the X-linked form of CGD. Moreover, apparently benign polymorphisms in CYBB are also given, which should facilitate the recognition of future disease-causing mutations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz`min energy threshold, 6 x 10(19) eV. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than 3.1 degrees from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the Veron-Cetty and Veron 12th catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is (38(-6)(+7))%, compared with 21% expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of (69-(+11)(13))%. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelação de diálogos com o Midiki: um gestor de diálogo do tipo Information State Update

Nesta dissertação investigamos a problemática da criação de sistemas e interfaces que permitam a interacção entre pessoas e máquinas através de linguagem natural(LN), recorrendo a Gestores de Diálogo (GD). Esse tipo de interacção concretiza-se através do estabelecimento de diálogos entre uma pessoa (cliente ou utilizador de um serviço) e a máquina, por exemplo, e em particular, através da fala. Quando disponibilizado da forma tradicional, o acesso ao serviço exige um intermediário Humano ou a adaptação da Pessoa a interfaces menos naturais, tais como linhas de comandos num computador, digitadas através de teclado ou o recurso (usual) a janelas, cliques de rato e preenchimento de formulários. Os sistemas que possibilitam a intermediação com esses serviços através de LN chamam-se Sistemas de Diálogo (SD), no núcleo dos quais se encontram os chamados Gestores de Diálogo. A implementação de SDs robustos ainda constitui um desafio, dada a complexidade, problemas e dificuldades que apresenta. Um SD, e em particular um GD, tem de ser configurado para levar a cabo um diálogo em linguagem natural com um Humano, por mais restrito ou mais genérico que seja o domínio (ou tarefa) considerado. Infelizmente, existem poucas metodologias e ferramentas de autoria que possibilitem a modelação fácil e intuitiva de tais diálogos (sobre os GDs). Nesta dissertação apresentamos uma metodologia [Quintal & Sampaio, 2007] e uma ferramenta para a autoria de diálogos com base no Gestor de Diálogo MIDIKI [Burke, 2005b]. A ferramenta de autoria automatiza as partes mais importantes da geração de código com vista à execução de um diálogo nesse GD.

On the iteration of Katsuno and Mendelzon update

In this dissertation we present a model for iteration of Katsuno and Mendelzon’s Update, inspired in the developments for iteration in AGM belief revision. We adapt Darwiche and Pearls’ postulates of iterated belief revision to update (as well as the independence postulate proposed in [BM06, JT07]) and show two families of such operators, based in natural [Bou96] and lexicographic revision [Nay94a, NPP03]. In all cases, we provide a possible worlds semantics of the models.

Mycosis fungoides and Sézary syndrome: clinical, histopathological and immunohistochemical review and update

O artigo revisa os conceitos diagnósticos e de classificação da micose fungóide e da síndrome de Sézary a luz das publicações normativas mais recentes. Descreve a grande variabilidade de expressão clinica da micose fungóide em seus estágios iniciais assim como os aspectos histopatológicos e imuno-histoquímicos auxiliares ao diagnóstico. São descritos os critérios de diagnósticos exigidos para que se caracterize a síndrome de Sézary e o sistema de estadiamento, utilizado para ambas, micose fungóide e síndrome de Sézary.

Rhamnolipid surfactants: An update on the general aspects of these remarkable biomolecules

Pseudomonas strains are able to biosynthesize rhamnose-containing surfactants also known as rhamnolipids. These surface-active compounds are reviewed with respect to chemical structure, properties, biosynthesis, and physiological role, focusing on their production and the use of low-cost substrates such as wastes from food industries as alternative carbon sources. The use of inexpensive raw materials such as agroindustrial wastes is an attractive strategy to reduce the production costs associated with biosurfactant production and, at same time, contribute to the reduction of environmental impact generated by the discard of residues, and the treatment costs. Carbohydrate-rich substrates generated low rhamnolipid levels, whereas oils and lipid-rich wastes have shown excellent potential as alternative carbon sources.

Indirect constraints on the triple gauge boson couplings from Z -> b(b)over-bar partial width: An update

We update the indirect bounds on anomalous triple gauge couplings coming from the non-universal one-loop contributions to the Z --> width. These bounds, which are independent of the Higgs boson mass, are in agreement with the standard model predictions for the gauge boson self-couplings since the present value of R-b agrees fairly well with the theoretical estimates. Moreover, these indirect constraints on Delta g(1)(Z) and g(5)(Z) are most stringent than the present direct bounds on these quantities, while the indirect limit on lambda(Z) is weaker than the available experimental data.

Hadronic form factors and the J/psi secondary production cross section: An update

Improving previous calculations, we compute the D + (D) over bar J/psi + pi cross section using the most complete effective Lagrangians available. The new crucial ingredients are the form factors on the charm meson vertices, which are determined from QCD sum rules calculations. Some of them became available only very recently, and the last one, needed for our present purpose, is calculated in this work.

Constraints on a scalar-pseudoscalar Higgs mixing at future e(+)e(-) colliders: An update

We perform an update of our previous analysis of the constraints on possible deviations of Hb (b) over bar coupling parametrized as (m(b)/v)(a+igamma(5)b), arising from a scalar-pseudoscalar mixing, where the process e(+)e(-)-->b (b) over bar nu(ν) over bar was used. In this paper we include a complete simulation of the process e(+)e(-)-->b (b) over bare(+)e(-) and combine these results to obtain tighter bounds on the deviations of the parameters a and b from their standard model values that could be measured at the Next Linear Collider.