UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Quantification of HIV-1 viral RNA in the blood in needles used for venous puncture in HIV-infected individuals

INTRODUCTION: Occupational HIV infection among healthcare workers is an important issue in exposures involving blood and body fluids. There are few data in the literature regarding the potential and the duration of infectivity of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) in contaminated material under adverse conditions. METHODS: We quantified HIV-1 viral RNA in 25×8mm calibre hollow-bore needles, after punctures, in 25 HIV-1-infected patients selected during the sample collection. All of the patients selected were between the ages of 18 and 55. Five samples were collected from 16 patients: one sample for the immediate quantification of HIV-1 RNA in the plasma and blood samples from the interior of 4 needles to be analyzed at 0h, 6h, 24h, and 72h after collection. In nine patients, another test was carried out in the blood from one additional needle, in which HIV-1 RNA was assessed 168h after blood collection. The method used to assess HIV-1 RNA was nucleic acid sequence-based amplification. RESULTS: Up to 7 days after collection, HIV-1 RNA was detected in all of the needles. The viral RNA remained stable up to 168h, and there were no statistically significant differences among the needle samples. CONCLUSIONS: Although the infectivity of the viral material in the needles is unknown, the data indicate the need to re-evaluate the practices in cases of occupational accidents in which the source is not identified.

A complete molecular biology assay for hepatitis C virus detection, quantification and genotyping

Introduction Molecular biology procedures to detect, genotype and quantify hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA in clinical samples have been extensively described. Routine commercial methods for each specific purpose (detection, quantification and genotyping) are also available, all of which are typically based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) targeting the HCV 5′ untranslated region (5′UTR). This study was performed to develop and validate a complete serial laboratory assay that combines real-time nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) techniques for the complete molecular analysis of HCV (detection, genotyping and viral load) in clinical samples. Methods Published HCV sequences were compared to select specific primers, probe and restriction enzyme sites. An original real-time nested RT-PCR-RFLP assay was then developed and validated to detect, genotype and quantify HCV in plasma samples. Results The real-time nested RT-PCR data were linear and reproducible for HCV analysis in clinical samples. High correlations (> 0.97) were observed between samples with different viral loads and the corresponding read cycle (Ct - Cycle threshold), and this part of the assay had a wide dynamic range of analysis. Additionally, HCV genotypes 1, 2 and 3 were successfully distinguished using the RFLP method. Conclusions A complete serial molecular assay was developed and validated for HCV detection, quantification and genotyping.

Uncertainty in olfactory decision-making

Relationships between accuracy and speed of decision-making, or speed-accuracy tradeoffs (SAT), have been extensively studied. However, the range of SAT observed varies widely across studies for reasons that are unclear. Several explanations have been proposed, including motivation or incentive for speed vs. accuracy, species and modality but none of these hypotheses has been directly tested. An alternative explanation is that the different degrees of SAT are related to the nature of the task being performed. Here, we addressed this problem by comparing SAT in two odor-guided decision tasks that were identical except for the nature of the task uncertainty: an odor mixture categorization task, where the distinguishing information is reduced by making the stimuli more similar to each other; and an odor identification task in which the information is reduced by lowering the intensity over a range of three log steps. (...)

Contribution of the evaluation strategy and the use of hearing protection for the uncertainty associated with occupational exposure to noise

Doctoral Thesis for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering

Jet energy measurement and its systematic uncertainty in proton-proton collisions at s√=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The jet energy scale (JES) and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of s√=7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb −1 . Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells using the anti- kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0.4 or R=0.6 , and are calibrated using MC simulations. A residual JES correction is applied to account for differences between data and MC simulations. This correction and its systematic uncertainty are estimated using a combination of in situ techniques exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference object such as a photon or a Z boson, for 20≤pjetT<1000 GeV and pseudorapidities |η|<4.5 . The effect of multiple proton–proton interactions is corrected for, and an uncertainty is evaluated using in situ techniques. The smallest JES uncertainty of less than 1 % is found in the central calorimeter region ( |η|<1.2 ) for jets with 55≤pjetT<500 GeV . For central jets at lower pT , the uncertainty is about 3 %. A consistent JES estimate is found using measurements of the calorimeter response of single hadrons in proton–proton collisions and test-beam data, which also provide the estimate for pjetT>1 TeV. The calibration of forward jets is derived from dijet pT balance measurements. The resulting uncertainty reaches its largest value of 6 % for low- pT jets at |η|=4.5 . Additional JES uncertainties due to specific event topologies, such as close-by jets or selections of event samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks or gluons, are also discussed. The magnitude of these uncertainties depends on the event sample used in a given physics analysis, but typically amounts to 0.5–3 %.

Project management under uncertainty: a study on solution methods

Project Management involves onetime endeavors that demand for getting it right the first time. On the other hand, project scheduling, being one of the most modeled project management process stages, still faces a wide gap from theory to practice. Demanding computational models and their consequent call for simplification, divert the implementation of such models in project management tools from the actual day to day project management process. Special focus is being made to the robustness of the generated project schedules facing the omnipresence of uncertainty. An "easy" way out is to add, more or less cleverly calculated, time buffers that always result in project duration increase and correspondingly, in cost. A better approach to deal with uncertainty seems to be to explore slack that might be present in a given project schedule, a fortiori when a non-optimal schedule is used. The combination of such approach to recent advances in modeling resource allocation and scheduling techniques to cope with the increasing flexibility in resources, as can be expressed in "Flexible Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem" (FRCPSP) formulations, should be a promising line of research to generate more adequate project management tools. In reality, this approach has been frequently used, by project managers in an ad-hoc way.

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

FISHji: new ImageJ macros for the quantification of fluorescence in epifluorescence images

Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) is based on the use of fluorescent staining dyes, however, the signal intensity of the images obtained by microscopy is seldom quantified with accuracy by the researcher. The development of innovative digital image processing programs and tools has been trying to overcome this problem, however, the determination of fluorescent intensity in microscopy images still has issues due to the lack of precision in the results and the complexity of existing software. This work presents FISHji, a set of new ImageJ methods for automated quantification of fluorescence in images obtained by epifluorescence microscopy. To validate the methods, results obtained by FISHji were compared with results obtained by flow cytometry. The mean correlation between FISHji and flow cytometry was high and significant, showing that the imaging methods are able to accurately assess the signal intensity of fluorescence images. FISHji are available for non-commercial use at http://paginas.fe.up.pt/nazevedo/.

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

Optimal scheduling with uncertainty in the numerical data on the basis of a stability analysis

Scheduling, job shop, uncertainty, mixed (disjunctive) graph, stability analysis

Topology of vector fields with uncertainty

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2015

Fairness under uncertainty with indivisibilities

I analyze an economy with uncertainty in which a set of indivisible objects and a certain amount of money is to be distributed among agents. The set of intertemporally fair social choice functions based on envy-freeness and Pareto efficiency is characterized. I give a necessary and sufficient condition for its non-emptiness and propose a mechanism that implements the set of intertemporally fair allocations in Bayes-Nash equilibrium. Implementation at the ex ante stage is considered, too. I also generalize the existence result obtained with envy-freeness using a broader fairness concept, introducing the aspiration function.