Distribution-Free Bounds for Serial Correlation Coefficients in Heteroskedastic Symmetric Time Series

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, ..., Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed: exponential bounds, Eaton-type bounds, Chebyshev bounds and Berry-Esséen-Zolotarev bounds. The bounds are exact in finite samples, distribution-free and easy to compute. The performance of the bounds is evaluated and compared with traditional serial dependence tests in a simulation experiment. The procedures proposed are applied to U.S. data on interest rates (commercial paper rate).

Quadrupole moments of radium isotopes from the 7p^2P_3/2 hyperfine structure in Ra II

The hyperfine structure and isotope shift of ^{221- 226}Ra and ^{212, 214}Ra have been measured in the ionic (Ra 11) transition 7s^2 S_{1/2} - 7p ^2 P_{3/2} (\lamda = 381.4 nm). The method of on-line collinear fast-beam laser spectroscopy has been applied using frequency-doubling of cw dye laser radiation in an external ring cavity. The magnetic hyperfine fields are compared with semi-empirical and ab initio calculations. The analysis of the quadrupole splitting by the same method yields the following, improved values of spectroscopic quadrupole moments: Q_s(^221 Ra)= 1.978(7)b, Q_s (^223 Ra)= 1.254(3)b and the reanalyzed values Q_s(^209 Ra) = 0.40(2)b, Q_s(^211 Ra) = 0.48(2)b, Q_s(^227 Ra)= 1.58(3)b, Q_s (^229 Ra) = 3.09(4)b with an additional scaling uncertainty of ±5%. Furthermore, the J-dependence of the isotope shift is analyzed in both Ra II transitions connecting the 7s^2 S_{1/2} ground state with the first excited doublet 7p^ P_{1/2} and 7p^ P_{3/2}.

Estimation of the ground state correlation energy for isoelectronic series of 2 to 20 electrons

Correlation energies for all isoelectronic sequences of 2 to 20 electrons and Z = 2 to 25 are obtained by taking differences between theoretical total energies of Dirac-Fock calculations and experimental total energies. These are pure relativistic correlation energies because relativistic and QED effects are already taken care of. The theoretical as well as the experimental values are analysed critically in order to get values as accurate as possible. The correlation energies obtained show an essentially consistent behaviour from Z = 2 to 17. For Z > 17 inconsistencies occur indicating errors in the experimental values which become very large for Z > 25.

Evolution of clinical and functional results after arthroscopic treatment of Discoid Meniscus. A case series study of 31 cases.

Purpose: To evaluate the evolution of clinical and functional outcomes of symptomatic discoid lateral meniscus treated arthroscopically over time and to investigate the relationship between associated intra-articular findings and outcomes. Methods: Of all patients treated arthroscopically between 1995 and 2010, patients treated for symptomatic discoid meniscus were identified in the hospital charts. Baseline data (demographics, previous trauma of ipsilateral knee, and associated intra-articular findings) and medium term outcome data from clinical follow-up examinations (pain, locking, snapping and instability of the operated knee) were extracted from clinical records. Telephone interviews were conducted at long term in 28 patients (31 knees). Interviews comprised clinical outcomes as well as functional outcomes as assessed by the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Evaluation Form (IKDC). Results: All patients underwent arthroscopic partial meniscectomy. The mean follow-up time for data extracted from clinical records was 11 months (SD ± 12). A significant improvement was found for pain in 77% (p<0.001), locking in 13%, (p=0.045) and snapping in 39 % (p<0.005). The mean follow-up time of the telephone interview was 60 months (SD ± 43). Improvement from baseline was generally less after five years than after one year and functional outcomes of the IKDC indicated an abnormal function after surgery (IKDC mean= 84.5, SD ± 20). In some patients, 5 year-outcomes were even worse than their preoperative condition. Nonetheless, 74% of patients perceived their knee function as improved. Furthermore, better results were seen in patients without any associated intra-articular findings. Conclusions: Arthroscopical partial meniscectomy is an effective intervention to relieve symptoms in patients with discoid meniscus in the medium-term; however, results trend to deteriorate over time. A trend towards better outcome for patients with no associated intra-articular findings was observed.

Analysis of molecular determinants of affinity and relative efficacy of a series of R- and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins at the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor

1 Factors influencing agonist affinity and relative efficacy have been studied for the 5-HT1A serotonin receptor using membranes of CHO cells expressing the human form of the receptor and a series of R-and S-2-(dipropylamino)tetralins (nonhydroxylated and monohydroxylated (5-OH, 6-OH, 7-OH, 8-OH) species). 2 Ligand binding studies were used to determine dissociation constants for agonist binding to the 5HT(1A) receptor: (a) K-i values for agonists were determined in competition versus the binding of the agonist [H-3]-8-OH DPAT. Competition data were all fitted best by a one-binding site model. (b) K-i values for agonists were also determined in competition versus the binding of the antagonist [H-3]-NAD-199. Competition data were all fitted best by a two-binding site model, and agonist affinities for the higher (K-h) and lower affinity (K-1) sites were determined. 3 The ability of the agonists to activate the 5-HT1A receptor was determined using stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. Maximal effects of agonists (E-max) and their potencies (EC50) were determined from concentration/response curves for stimulation of [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding. 4 K-1/K-h determined from ligand binding assays correlated with the relative efficacy (relative Em) of agonists determined in [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. There was also a correlation between K-1/K-h and K-1/EC50 for agonists determined from ligand binding and [S-35]-GTPgammaS binding assays. 5 Simulations of agonist binding and effect data were performed using the Ternary Complex Model in order to assess the use of K-1/K-h for predicting the relative efficacy of agonists. British Journal of Pharmacology (2003) 138, 1129-1139. doi: 10. 1038/sj.bjp.705085.

Probabilistic evaluation of time series models : a comparison of several approaches

Several methods are examined which allow to produce forecasts for time series in the form of probability assignments. The necessary concepts are presented, addressing questions such as how to assess the performance of a probabilistic forecast. A particular class of models, cluster weighted models (CWMs), is given particular attention. CWMs, originally proposed for deterministic forecasts, can be employed for probabilistic forecasting with little modification. Two examples are presented. The first involves estimating the state of (numerically simulated) dynamical systems from noise corrupted measurements, a problem also known as filtering. There is an optimal solution to this problem, called the optimal filter, to which the considered time series models are compared. (The optimal filter requires the dynamical equations to be known.) In the second example, we aim at forecasting the chaotic oscillations of an experimental bronze spring system. Both examples demonstrate that the considered time series models, and especially the CWMs, provide useful probabilistic information about the underlying dynamical relations. In particular, they provide more than just an approximation to the conditional mean.

Testing for unit roots in bounded time series

Many key economic and financial series are bounded either by construction or through policy controls. Conventional unit root tests are potentially unreliable in the presence of bounds, since they tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, even asymptotically. So far, very little work has been undertaken to develop unit root tests which can be applied to bounded time series. In this paper we address this gap in the literature by proposing unit root tests which are valid in the presence of bounds. We present new augmented Dickey–Fuller type tests as well as new versions of the modified ‘M’ tests developed by Ng and Perron [Ng, S., Perron, P., 2001. LAG length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica 69, 1519–1554] and demonstrate how these tests, combined with a simulation-based method to retrieve the relevant critical values, make it possible to control size asymptotically. A Monte Carlo study suggests that the proposed tests perform well in finite samples. Moreover, the tests outperform the Phillips–Perron type tests originally proposed in Cavaliere [Cavaliere, G., 2005. Limited time series with a unit root. Econometric Theory 21, 907–945]. An illustrative application to U.S. interest rate data is provided

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Astrophysical S factors for fusion reactions involving C, O, Ne, and Mg isotopes

Using the Sao Paulo potential and the barrier penetration formalism we have calculated the astrophysical factor S(E) for 946 fusion reactions involving stable and neutron-rich isotopes of C, O, Ne, and Mg for center-of-mass energies E varying from 2 to approximate to 18-30 MeV (covering the range below and above the Coulomb barrier). We have parameterized the energy dependence, S(E), by an accurate universal 9-parameter analytic expression and present tables of fit parameters for all the reactions. We also discuss the reduced 3-parameter version of our fit which is highly accurate at energies below the Coulomb barrier, and outline the procedure for calculating the reaction rates. The results can be easily converted to thermonuclear or pycnonuclear reaction rates to simulate various nuclear burning phenomena, in particular, stellar burning at high temperatures and nucleosynthesis in high density environments. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Contribution of SHRIMP U-Pb zircon geochronology to unravelling the evolution of Brazilian Neoproterozoic fold belts

The South-American continent is constituted of three major geologic-geotectonic entities the homonym platform (consolidated at the end of the Cambrian) the Andean chain (essentially Meso-Cenozoic) and the Patagonian terrains affected by tectonism and magmatism through almost all of the Phanerozoic The platform is constituted by a series of cratonic nuclei (pre-Tonian fragments of the Rodinia fission) surrounded by a complex fabric of Neoproterozoic structural provinces Two major groups of orogenic processes (plate interaction cycles) constitute the evolution of these provinces the older occurred in the Tonian (smaller in area) and the younger Brasiliano that is present in all provinces The Tonian cycles (pre-Rodinia fission?) are still being sorted out and many questions still need to be answered The Brasiliano orogenic collage events (post-Rodinia fission?) developed in three main stages in part coeval from a province to another and are 650-600 580-560 and 540-500 Ma respectively (the late event reaching the Ordovician) The first group of orogenies is recorded in practically all provinces The third group is restricted to part of the Mantiqueira Province (southeast of the platform Buzios Orogeny) and present in the Pampean province (SW of the platform) For all these groups of orogenic events there are considerable records of rock assemblages related to processes of convergent plate interaction opening accretion collision and further extrusion There is a good correlation between the geologic and geotectonic data and geochemical and isotopic data The late tectonic processes (post-orogenic magmatism foreland basins etc) of the first two groups compete in time in distinct spaces with the peak of orogenic processes in the third group The introduction of the SHRIMP U-Pb methodology was fundamental to separate the Tonian and post-Tonian orogenic groups and their respective divisions in time and space Thus there are still many open points/problems which lead to expectations of addressing these issues in the near future with the more Intense use of this methodology (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

U-Pb-Hf-trace element systematics and geochronology of zircon from a granulite-facies metamorphosed mafic-ultramafic layered complex in Central Brazil

Zircon recrystallization is a common process during high-grade metamorphism and promotes partial or complete resetting of the original isotopic and chemical characteristics of the mineral and thus complicates U-Pb geochronological interpretation. In Central Brazil, this complexity may be illustrated by three composite mafic-ultramafic intrusions metamorphosed under amphibolite-to-granulite conditions. Their ages of emplacement and metamorphic ages have been a matter of controversy for the last thirty years. The Serra da Malacacheta and Barro Alto complexes make up the southernmost of these layered bodies and four samples from distinct rock types were investigated in order to verify the consequences of metamorphic alteration of zircon for U-Pb dating. Cathodoluminescent imaging reveals internal features which are typical of concomitant dissolution-reprecipitation processes, such as convolute zoning and inward-moving recrystallization fronts, even in samples in which partially preserved igneous textures are observed. Due to this extensive alteration, LA-ICPMS U-Pb isotopic analysis yielded inconclusive data. However, in situ Hf isotopic and trace-element analyses help to clarify the real meaning of the geochronological data. Low Lu/Hf (<0.004) and homogeneous (176)Hf/(177)Hf(t) values imply that the zircon populations within individual samples have crystallized in a single episode, despite the observed variations in age values. Trace element signatures of zircon grains from garnet-bearing samples reveal that they were unreactive to the development of the peak metamorphism mineral assemblage and, thus, the main chemical feature in such grains is attributed to a coupled dissolution-reprecipitation process. However, in the Cafelandia amphibolite an additional alteration process is identified, probably related to the influx of late-stage fluids. Combined isotopic and geochemical investigation on zircon grains allowed the distinction of two magmatic events. The first corresponds to the crystallization of the Serra da Malacacheta Complex and characterizes a juvenile magmatism at similar to 1.3 Ga. The younger episode, recognized in the Barro Alto Complex, is dated at ca. 800 Ma and is represented by mafic and ultramafic rocks showing intense contamination with continental crust, implying that the emplacement took place, most likely, in a continental back-arc setting. Altered zircon domains as well as titanite grains date the metamorphic event at ca. 760-750 Ma. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The determinants of internationalstudent mobility : An empirical study on U.S. Data

The increase in foreign students in countries such as the US, the UK and Francesuggests that the international ‘education industry’ is growing in importance. Thepurpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical determinants of internationalstudent mobility. A secondary purpose is to give tentative policy suggestions to hostcountry, source country and also to provide some recommendations to students whowant to study abroad. Using pooled cross-sectional time series data for the US overthe time period 1993-2006, we estimate an econometric model of enrolment rates offoreign students in the US. Our results suggest that tuition fees, US federal support ofeducation, and the size of the ‘young’ generation of source countries have asignificant influence on international student mobility. We also consider other factorsthat may be relevant in this context.

Time-series properties and empirical evidence of growth and infraestructure: revised version

After more than forty years studying growth, there are two classes of growth models that have emerged: exogenous and endogenous growth models. Since both try to mimic the same set of long-run stylized facts, they are observationally equivalent in some respects. Our goals in this paper are twofold First, we discuss the time-series properties of growth models in a way that is useful for assessing their fit to the data. Second, we investigate whether these two models successfully conforms to U.S. post-war data. We use cointegration techniques to estimate and test long-run capital elasticities, exogeneity tests to investigate the exogeneity status of TFP, and Granger-causality tests to examine temporal precedence of TFP with respect to infrastructure expenditures. The empirical evidence is robust in confirming the existence of a unity long-run capital elasticity. The analysis of TFP reveals that it is not weakly exogenous in the exogenous growth model Granger-causality test results show unequivocally that there is no evidence that TFP for both models precede infrastructure expenditures not being preceded by it. On the contrary, we find some evidence that infras- tructure investment precedes TFP. Our estimated impact of infrastructure on TFP lay rougbly in the interval (0.19, 0.27).

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (e.g. prices and dividends) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PVM) linking them. The work on cointegration,namelyon long-run co-movements, has been so prevalent that it is often over-looked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. This amounts to investigate whether short-run co-movememts steming from common cyclical feature restrictions are also present in such a system. In this paper we test for the presence of such co-movement on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. We focuss on the potential improvement in forecasting accuracies when imposing those two types of restrictions coming from economic theory.