A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

The impact of property title type on residential property returns

Residential property in New Zealand comprises both freestanding residential properties and medium to high density residential properties. Medium to high density residential property comprises the typical units, townhouses and semi-detached houses common in most residential property markets. However, in many of the larger cities of New Zealand the free standing residential property market has evolved into two separate markets being freehold residential property and cross lease residential property. Cross leases have developed as a form of infill housing to reduce the urban sprawl in major canters, while reducing the time and cost for residential property developers. A cross lease is created when an existing freestanding residential property subdivides a portion of the existing land for the erection of another house on the original title, basically dividing one larger residential section into two smaller residential blocks. This paper will analyse house prices in Christchurch over the period 1992 to 2006 to determine if the various housing markets have shown similar capital returns or if there is a specific preference for a particular residential property title.

Incorporating interdependence in risk likelihood analysis to enhance diagnostics in condition monitoring

This research is aimed at addressing problems in the field of asset management relating to risk analysis and decision making based on data from a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system. It is apparent that determining risk likelihood in risk analysis is difficult, especially when historical information is unreliable. This relates to a problem in SCADA data analysis because of nested data. A further problem is in providing beneficial information from a SCADA system to a managerial level information system (e.g. Enterprise Resource Planning/ERP). A Hierarchical Model is developed to address the problems. The model is composed of three different Analyses: Hierarchical Analysis, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, and Interdependence Analysis. The significant contributions from the model include: (a) a new risk analysis model, namely an Interdependence Risk Analysis Model which does not rely on the existence of historical information because it utilises Interdependence Relationships to determine the risk likelihood, (b) improvement of the SCADA data analysis problem by addressing the nested data problem through the Hierarchical Analysis, and (c) presentation of a framework to provide beneficial information from SCADA systems to ERP systems. The case study of a Water Treatment Plant is utilised for model validation.

Biochemical characterization of Aprataxin, the protein deficient in Ataxia with Oculomotor Apraxia type 1

Neurodegenerative disorders are heterogenous in nature and include a range of ataxias with oculomotor apraxia, which are characterised by a wide variety of neurological and ophthalmological features. This family includes recessive and dominant disorders. A subfamily of autosomal recessive cerebellar ataxias are characterised by defects in the cellular response to DNA damage. These include the well characterised disorders Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T) and Ataxia-Telangiectasia Like Disorder (A-TLD) as well as the recently identified diseases Spinocerebellar ataxia with axonal neuropathy Type 1 (SCAN1), Ataxia with Oculomotor Apraxia Type 2 (AOA2), as well as the subject of this thesis, Ataxia with Oculomotor Apraxia Type 1 (AOA1). AOA1 is caused by mutations in the APTX gene, which is located at chromosomal locus 9p13. This gene codes for the 342 amino acid protein Aprataxin. Mutations in APTX cause destabilization of Aprataxin, thus AOA1 is a result of Aprataxin deficiency. Aprataxin has three functional domains, an N-terminal Forkhead Associated (FHA) phosphoprotein interaction domain, a central Histidine Triad (HIT) nucleotide hydrolase domain and a C-terminal C2H2 zinc finger. Aprataxins FHA domain has homology to FHA domain of the DNA repair protein 5’ polynucleotide kinase 3’ phosphatase (PNKP). PNKP interacts with a range of DNA repair proteins via its FHA domain and plays a critical role in processing damaged DNA termini. The presence of this domain with a nucleotide hydrolase domain and a DNA binding motif implicated that Aprataxin may be involved in DNA repair and that AOA1 may be caused by a DNA repair deficit. This was substantiated by the interaction of Aprataxin with proteins involved in the repair of both single and double strand DNA breaks (XRay Cross-Complementing 1, XRCC4 and Poly-ADP Ribose Polymerase-1) and the hypersensitivity of AOA1 patient cell lines to single and double strand break inducing agents. At the commencement of this study little was known about the in vitro and in vivo properties of Aprataxin. Initially this study focused on generation of recombinant Aprataxin proteins to facilitate examination of the in vitro properties of Aprataxin. Using recombinant Aprataxin proteins I found that Aprataxin binds to double stranded DNA. Consistent with a role for Aprataxin as a DNA repair enzyme, this binding is not sequence specific. I also report that the HIT domain of Aprataxin hydrolyses adenosine derivatives and interestingly found that this activity is competitively inhibited by DNA. This provided initial evidence that DNA binds to the HIT domain of Aprataxin. The interaction of DNA with the nucleotide hydrolase domain of Aprataxin provided initial evidence that Aprataxin may be a DNA-processing factor. Following these studies, Aprataxin was found to hydrolyse 5’adenylated DNA, which can be generated by unscheduled ligation at DNA breaks with non-standard termini. I found that cell extracts from AOA1 patients do not have DNA-adenylate hydrolase activity indicating that Aprataxin is the only DNA-adenylate hydrolase in mammalian cells. I further characterised this activity by examining the contribution of the zinc finger and FHA domains to DNA-adenylate hydrolysis by the HIT domain. I found that deletion of the zinc finger ablated the activity of the HIT domain against adenylated DNA, indicating that the zinc finger may be required for the formation of a stable enzyme-substrate complex. Deletion of the FHA domain stimulated DNA-adenylate hydrolysis, which indicated that the activity of the HIT domain may be regulated by the FHA domain. Given that the FHA domain is involved in protein-protein interactions I propose that the activity of Aprataxins HIT domain may be regulated by proteins which interact with its FHA domain. We examined this possibility by measuring the DNA-adenylate hydrolase activity of extracts from cells deficient for the Aprataxin-interacting DNA repair proteins XRCC1 and PARP-1. XRCC1 deficiency did not affect Aprataxin activity but I found that Aprataxin is destabilized in the absence of PARP-1, resulting in a deficiency of DNA-adenylate hydrolase activity in PARP-1 knockout cells. This implies a critical role for PARP-1 in the stabilization of Aprataxin. Conversely I found that PARP-1 is destabilized in the absence of Aprataxin. PARP-1 is a central player in a number of DNA repair mechanisms and this implies that not only do AOA1 cells lack Aprataxin, they may also have defects in PARP-1 dependant cellular functions. Based on this I identified a defect in a PARP-1 dependant DNA repair mechanism in AOA1 cells. Additionally, I identified elevated levels of oxidized DNA in AOA1 cells, which is indicative of a defect in Base Excision Repair (BER). I attribute this to the reduced level of the BER protein Apurinic Endonuclease 1 (APE1) I identified in Aprataxin deficient cells. This study has identified and characterised multiple DNA repair defects in AOA1 cells, indicating that Aprataxin deficiency has far-reaching cellular consequences. Consistent with the literature, I show that Aprataxin is a nuclear protein with nucleoplasmic and nucleolar distribution. Previous studies have shown that Aprataxin interacts with the nucleolar rRNA processing factor nucleolin and that AOA1 cells appear to have a mild defect in rRNA synthesis. Given the nucleolar localization of Aprataxin I examined the protein-protein interactions of Aprataxin and found that Aprataxin interacts with a number of rRNA transcription and processing factors. Based on this and the nucleolar localization of Aprataxin I proposed that Aprataxin may have an alternative role in the nucleolus. I therefore examined the transcriptional activity of Aprataxin deficient cells using nucleotide analogue incorporation. I found that AOA1 cells do not display a defect in basal levels of RNA synthesis, however they display defective transcriptional responses to DNA damage. In summary, this thesis demonstrates that Aprataxin is a DNA repair enzyme responsible for the repair of adenylated DNA termini and that it is required for stabilization of at least two other DNA repair proteins. Thus not only do AOA1 cells have no Aprataxin protein or activity, they have additional deficiencies in PolyADP Ribose Polymerase-1 and Apurinic Endonuclease 1 dependant DNA repair mechanisms. I additionally demonstrate DNA-damage inducible transcriptional defects in AOA1 cells, indicating that Aprataxin deficiency confers a broad range of cellular defects and highlighting the complexity of the cellular response to DNA damage and the multiple defects which result from Aprataxin deficiency. My detailed characterization of the cellular consequences of Aprataxin deficiency provides an important contribution to our understanding of interlinking DNA repair processes.

Residential sales by auction : a property type or geographic consideration

The sale of residential property by auction is a preferred sale method by real estate agents, but not always preferred by some vendors and most residential property buyers. In many residential property markets, the performance and measure of residential property market activity is based on the number of properties offered for sale by auction, auction clearance rates and the number of properties sold prior to auction. However, in many specific residential property markets, sale by auction may not be the preferred or supported method of sale. This paper will review the type of residential property sale within the Sydney residential property market and track the auction sales and clearance rates for Sydney over the past 5 months and compare these results in relation to clearance rates, passed in sales, and properties sold prior to auction This will provide a breakdown of real estate agency sale practice over a large metropolitan region to determine the impact of geographic location and socio-economic factors on the auction of residential property. In addition the paper will analyse the weekly auction sales in the Sydney residential property market to determine what areas of Sydney have the greatest number of house auctions and the performance of the auctions in relation location and socio economic factors.

Type extension and efficient AST manipulation

Oberon-2 is an object-oriented language with a class structure based on type extension. The runtime structure of Oberon-2 is described and the low-level mechanism for dynamic type checking explained. It is shown that the superior type-safety of the language, when used for programming styles based on heterogeneous, pointer-linked data structures, has an entirely negligible cost in runtime performance.

Is liraglutide or exenatide better in type 2 diabetes?

Background: Subjects with type 2 diabetes have high circulating levels of glucose. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) is an intestinal hormone that has a major role in glucose homeostasis. Exenatide and liraglutide are both agonists at the GLP-1 receptor, and are effective at reducing circulating glucose levels (measured as HbA1c levels), but they have not been compared. Objectives/methods: This evaluation is of a clinical trial comparing liraglutide once a day with exenatide twice a day in subjects with type 2 diabetes. Results: In the Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes (LEAD)-6 trial, subcutaneous liraglutide 1.8 mg once a day was compared with exenatide 10 μg twice a day. The primary efficacy outcome was change in HbA1c levels, and this was significantly greater with liraglutide (1.12%) than with exenatide (0.79%). Liraglutide and exenatide had similar small abilities to reduce body weight, blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol. Conclusions: Liraglutide was more effective than exenatide for overall glycaemic control in subjects with type 2 diabetes. However, this is only true for the preparations and doses tested, that is liraglutide 1.8 mg once weekly and exenatide 10 μg b.i.d., and may not apply when the comparison is undertaken with the new longer-lasting preparation of exenatide once weekly.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Resistance training for obese, type 2 diabetic adults: A review of the evidence

In both developed and developing countries, increased prevalence of obesity has been strongly associated with increased incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the adult population. Previous research has emphasized the importance of physical activity in the prevention and management of obesity and T2DM, and generic exercise guidelines originally developed for the wider population have been adapted for these specific populations. However, the guidelines traditionally focus on aerobic training without due consideration to other exercise modalities. Recent reviews on resistance training in the T2DM population have not compared this modality with others including aerobic training, or considered the implications of resistance training for individuals suffering from both obesity and T2DM. In short, the optimal mix of exercise modalities in the prescription of exercise has not been identified for it benefits to the metabolic, body composition and muscular health markers common in obesity and T2DM. Similarly, the underlying physical, social and psychological barriers to adopting and maintaining exercise, with the potential to undermine the efficacy of exercise interventions, have not been addressed in earlier reviews. Because it is well established that aerobic exercise has profound effects on obesity and T2DM risk, the purpose of this review was to address the importance of resistance training to obese adults with T2DM.

Type Test Elimination using Typeflow Analysis

Programs written in languages of the Oberon family usually contain runtime tests on the dynamic type of variables. In some cases it may be desirable to reduce the number of such tests. Typeflow analysis is a static method of determining bounds on the types that objects may possess at runtime. We show that this analysis is able to reduce the number of tests in certain plausible circumstances. Furthermore, the same analysis is able to detect certain program errors at compile time, which would normally only be detected at program execution. This paper introduces the concepts of typeflow analysis and details its use in the reduction of runtime overhead in Oberon-2.

Condition-based prognosis of machine health

Modern machines are complex and often required to operate long hours to achieve production targets. The ability to detect symptoms of failure, hence, forecasting the remaining useful life of the machine is vital to prevent catastrophic failures. This is essential to reducing maintenance cost, operation downtime and safety hazard. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognosis models that attempt to forecast machinery health based on either condition data or reliability data. In practice, failure condition trending data are seldom kept by industries and data that ended with a suspension are sometimes treated as failure data. This paper presents a novel approach of incorporating historical failure data and suspended condition trending data in the prognostic model. The proposed model consists of a FFNN whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of Kaplan-Meier estimator and degradation-based failure PDF estimator. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. The viability of the model was tested using a set of industry vibration data.