Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

Agrobacterium tumefasciens-mediated transformation of the aquatic fungus Blastocladiella emersonii

Agrobacterium tumefaciens is widely used for plant DNA transformation and more recently, has also been used to transform yeast, filamentous fungi and even human cells. Using this technique, we developed the first transformation protocol for the saprobic aquatic fungus Blastocladiella emersonii, a Blastocladiomycete localized at the base of fungal phylogenetic tree, which has been shown as a promising and interesting model of study of cellular function and differentiation. We constructed binary T-DNA vectors containing hygromycin phosphotransferase (hph) or enhanced green fluorescent protein (egfp) genes, under the control of Aspergillus nidulans trpC promoter and terminator sequences. 24 h of co-cultivation in induction medium (IM) agar plates, followed by transfer to PYG-agar plates containing cefotaxim to kill Agrobacterium tumefsciens and hygromycin to select transformants, resulted in growth and sporulation of resistant transformants. Genomic DNA from the pool o resistant zoospores were shown to contain T-DNA insertion as evidenced by PCR amplification of hph gene. Using a similar protocol we could also evidence the expression of enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) in zoospores derived from transformed cells. This protocol can also open new perspectives for other non-transformable closely related fungi, like the Chytridiomycete class. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stability theory and numerical analysis of non-autonomous dynamical systems

The development and use of cocycles for analysis of non-autonomous behaviour is a technique that has been known for several years. Initially developed as an extension to semi-group theory for studying rion-autonornous behaviour, it was extensively used in analysing random dynamical systems [2, 9, 10, 12]. Many of the results regarding asymptotic behaviour developed for random dynamical systems, including the concept of cocycle attractors were successfully transferred and reinterpreted for deterministic non-autonomous systems primarily by P. Kloeden and B. Schmalfuss [20, 21, 28, 29]. The theory concerning cocycle attractors was later developed in various contexts specific to particular classes of dynamical systems [6, 7, 13], although a comprehensive understanding of cocycle attractors (redefined as pullback attractors within this thesis) and their role in the stability of non-autonomous dynamical systems was still at this stage incomplete. It was this purpose that motivated Chapters 1-3 to define and formalise the concept of stability within non-autonomous dynamical systems. The approach taken incorporates the elements of classical asymptotic theory, and refines the notion of pullback attraction with further development towards a study of pull-back stability arid pullback asymptotic stability. In a comprehensive manner, it clearly establishes both pullback and forward (classical) stability theory as fundamentally unique and essential components of non-autonomous stability. Many of the introductory theorems and examples highlight the key properties arid differences between pullback and forward stability. The theory also cohesively retains all the properties of classical asymptotic stability theory in an autonomous environment. These chapters are intended as a fundamental framework from which further research in the various fields of non-autonomous dynamical systems may be extended. A preliminary version of a Lyapunov-like theory that characterises pullback attraction is created as a tool for examining non-autonomous behaviour in Chapter 5. The nature of its usefulness however is at this stage restricted to the converse theorem of asymptotic stability. Chapter 7 introduces the theory of Loci Dynamics. A transformation is made to an alternative dynamical system where forward asymptotic (classical asymptotic) behaviour characterises pullback attraction to a particular point in the original dynamical system. This has the advantage in that certain conventional techniques for a forward analysis may be applied. The remainder of the thesis, Chapters 4, 6 and Section 7.3, investigates the effects of perturbations and discretisations on non-autonomous dynamical systems known to possess structures that exhibit some form of stability or attraction. Chapter 4 investigates autonomous systems with semi-group attractors, that have been non-autonomously perturbed, whilst Chapter 6 observes the effects of discretisation on non-autonomous dynamical systems that exhibit properties of forward asymptotic stability. Chapter 7 explores the same problem of discretisation, but for pullback asymptotically stable systems. The theory of Loci Dynamics is used to analyse the nature of the discretisation, but establishment of results directly analogous to those discovered in Chapter 6 is shown to be unachievable. Instead a case by case analysis is provided for specific classes of dynamical systems, for which the results generate a numerical approximation of the pullback attraction in the original continuous dynamical system. The nature of the results regarding discretisation provide a non-autonomous extension to the work initiated by A. Stuart and J. Humphries [34, 35] for the numerical approximation of semi-group attractors within autonomous systems. . Of particular importance is the effect on the system's asymptotic behaviour over non-finite intervals of discretisation.

The effect of simulated thermomechanical processing on the transformation behavior and microstructure of a low-carbon Mo-Nb linepipe steel

The present work investigates the transformation behavior of a low-carbon Mo-Nb linepipe steel and the corresponding transformation product microstructures using deformation dilatometry. The continuous cooling transformation (CCT) diagrams have been constructed for both the fully recrystallized austenite and that deformed in uniaxial compression at 1148 K (875 °C) to a strain of 0.5 for cooling rates ranging from 0.1 to about 100 K/s. The obtained microstructures have been studied in detail using electron backscattered diffraction complemented by transmission electron microscopy. Heavy deformation of the parent austenite has caused a significant expansion of the polygonal ferrite transformation field in the CCT diagram, as well as a shift in the non-equilibrium ferrite transformation fields toward higher cooling rates. Furthermore, the austenite deformation has resulted in a pronounced refinement in both the effective grain (sheaf/packet) size and substructure unit size of the non-equilibrium ferrite microstructures. The optimum microstructure expected to display an excellent balance between strength and toughness is a mix of quasi-polygonal ferrite and granular bainite (often termed “acicular ferrite”) produced from the heavily deformed austenite within a processing window covering the cooling rates from about 10 to about 100 K/s.

When good dictators go bad: examining the 'transformation' of Colonel Gaddafi

On October 20, 2011, the 42 year rule of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi came to a violent end after months ofintense and brutal fighting. The violence in which Gaddafi died and the ensuing abuse of his dead body by his killers wascaptured on film and broadcast around the world. This gruesome end was the antithesis to his rise to power in 1969,where he was welcomed as a savior and a hero. Until his death, Gaddafi was the longest-serving non-monarchical Headof State and was considered by most scholars more likely to die of natural causes than be overthrown by his people. Sowhat happened in those 42 years that caused Gaddafi to go from beloved liberator to hated oppressor? And what is hislasting legacy for the country he ruled for over four decades?

Studies in non-Gaussian analysis

This thesis presents general methods in non-Gaussian analysis in infinite dimensional spaces. As main applications we study Poisson and compound Poisson spaces. Given a probability measure μ on a co-nuclear space, we develop an abstract theory based on the generalized Appell systems which are bi-orthogonal. We study its properties as well as the generated Gelfand triples. As an example we consider the important case of Poisson measures. The product and Wick calculus are developed on this context. We provide formulas for the change of the generalized Appell system under a transformation of the measure. The L² structure for the Poisson measure, compound Poisson and Gamma measures are elaborated. We exhibit the chaos decomposition using the Fock isomorphism. We obtain the representation of the creation, annihilation operators. We construct two types of differential geometry on the configuration space over a differentiable manifold. These two geometries are related through the Dirichlet forms for Poisson measures as well as for its perturbations. Finally, we construct the internal geometry on the compound configurations space. In particular, the intrinsic gradient, the divergence and the Laplace-Beltrami operator. As a result, we may define the Dirichlet forms which are associated to a diffusion process. Consequently, we obtain the representation of the Lie algebra of vector fields with compact support. All these results extends directly for the marked Poisson spaces.

Modal transformation applied to double three-phase transmission lines

Double three-phase transmission lines are analyzed in this paper using a modal transformation model. The main attribute of this model is the use of a single real transformation matrix based on line geometrical characteristics and the Clarke matrix. Because of this, for any line point, the electrical values can be accessed for phase domain or mode domain using the considered transformation matrix and without convolution methods. For non-transposed symmetrical lines the errors between the model results and the exact modes are insignificant values. The eigenvector and eigenvalue analyses for transposed lines search the similarities among the three analyzed transposition types and the possible simplifications for a non-transposed case.

Single real transformation matrices applied to double three-phase transmission lines

Single real transformation matrices are tested as phase-mode transformation matrices of typical symmetrical systems with double three-phase and two parallel double three-phase transmission lines. These single real transformation matrices are achieved from eigenvector matrices of the mentioned systems and they are based on Clarke's matrix. Using linear combinations of the Clarke's matrix elements, the techniques applied to the single three-phase lines are extended to systems with 6 or 12 phase conductors. For transposed double three-phase lines, phase Z and Y matrices are changed into diagonal matrices in mode domain. Considering non-transposed cases of double three-phase lines, the results are not exact and the error analyses are performed using the exact eigenvalues. In case of two parallel double three-phase lines, the exact single real transformation matrix has not been obtained yet. Searching for this exact matrix, the analyses are based on a single homopolar reference. For all analyses in this paper, the homopolar mode is used as the only homopolar reference for all phase conductors of the studied system. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alternative proposal for Modal Representation of a Non-transposed Three-Phase Transmission Line with a Vertical Symmetry Plane

The objective of this paper is to show an alternative representation in time domain of a non-transposed three-phase transmission line decomposed in its exact modes by using two transformation matrices. The first matrix is Clarke's matrix that is real, frequency independent, easily represented in computational transient programs (EMTP) and separates the line into quasi-modes a, b and zero. After that, Quasi-modes a and zero are decomposed into their exact modes by using a modal transformation matrix whose elements can be synthesized in time domain through standard curve-fitting techniques. The main advantage of this alternative representation is to reduce the processing time because a frequency dependent modal transformation matrix of a three-phase line has nine elements to be represented in time domain while a modal transformation matrix of a two-phase line has only four elements. This paper shows modal decomposition process and eigenvectors of a non-transposed three-phase line with a vertical symmetry plane whose nominal voltage is 440 kV and line length is 500 km.

A Methodology for Building Service-Oriented Applications in the Presence of Non-Functional Properties

This thesis presents ⇡SOD-M (Policy-based Service Oriented Development Methodology), a methodology for modeling reliable service-based applications using policies. It proposes a model driven method with: (i) a set of meta-models for representing non-functional constraints associated to service-based applications, starting from an use case model until a service composition model; (ii) a platform providing guidelines for expressing the composition and the policies; (iii) model-to-model and model-to-text transformation rules for semi-automatizing the implementation of reliable service-based applications; and (iv) an environment that implements these meta-models and rules, and enables the application of ⇡SOD-M. This thesis also presents a classification and nomenclature for non-functional requirements for developing service-oriented applications. Our approach is intended to add value to the development of service-oriented applications that have quality requirements needs. This work uses concepts from the service-oriented development, non-functional requirements design and model-driven delevopment areas to propose a solution that minimizes the problem of reliable service modeling. Some examples are developed as proof of concepts

Lymphocyte transformation assay for C neoformans antigen is not reliable for detecting cellular impairment in patients with Neurocryptococcosis

Background: Cryptococcus neoformans causes meningitis and disseminated infection in healthy individuals, but more commonly in hosts with defective immune responses. Cell-mediated immunity is an important component of the immune response to a great variety of infections, including yeast infections. We aimed to evaluate a specific lymphocyte transformation assay to Cryptococcus neoformans in order to identify immunodeficiency associated to neurocryptococcosis (NCC) as primary cause of the mycosis.Methods: Healthy volunteers, poultry growers, and HIV-seronegative patients with neurocryptococcosis were tested for cellular immune response. Cryptococcal meningitis was diagnosed by India ink staining of cerebrospinal fluid and cryptococcal antigen test (Immunomycol-Inc, SP, Brazil). Isolated peripheral blood mononuclear cells were stimulated with C. neoformans antigen, C. albicans antigen, and pokeweed mitogen. The amount of H-3-thymidine incorporated was assessed, and the results were expressed as stimulation index (SI) and log SI, sensitivity, specificity, and cut-off value (receiver operating characteristics curve). We applied unpaired Student t tests to compare data and considered significant differences for p<0.05.Results: The lymphotoxin alpha showed a low capacity with all the stimuli for classifying patients as responders and non-responders. Lymphotoxin alpha stimulated by heated-killed antigen from patients with neurocryptococcosis was not affected by TCD4+ cell count, and the intensity of response did not correlate with the clinical evolution of neurocryptococcosis.Conclusion: Response to lymphocyte transformation assay should be analyzed based on a normal range and using more than one stimulator. The use of a cut-off value to classify patients with neurocryptococcosis is inadequate. Statistical analysis should be based on the log transformation of SI. A more purified antigen for evaluating specific response to C. neoformans is needed.

Some experiments with high order compact methods using a computer algebra software - Part II (non-uniform grid)

We generalize a procedure proposed by Mancera and Hunt [P.F.A. Mancera, R. Hunt, Some experiments with high order compact methods using a computer algebra software-Part 1, Appl. Math. Comput., in press, doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2005.05.015] for obtaining a compact fourth-order method to the steady 2D Navier-Stokes equations in the streamfunction formulation-vorticity using the computer algebra system Maple, which includes conformal mappings and non-uniform grids. To analyse the procedure we have solved a constricted stepped channel problem, where a fine grid is placed near the re-entrant corner by transformation of the independent variables. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Camassa-Holm equation: transformation to deformed sinh-Gordon equations, cuspon and soliton solutions

In this paper a relation between the Camassa-Holm equation and the non-local deformations of the sinh-Gordon equation is used to study some properties of the former equation. We will show that cuspon and soliton solutions can be obtained from soliton solutions of the deformed sinh-Gordon equation.

The impossibility of a universal relativistic temperature transformation

The non-existence of a relativistic temperature transformation is due to the fact that an observer moving in a heat reservoir cannot detect a blackbody spectrum. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Permutability of Backlund transformation for N=1 supersymmetric sinh-Gordon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)