Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

Carbon sequestration in community forests: trade-offs, multiple outcomes and institutional diversity in the Bolivian Amazon

Carbon sequestration in community forests presents a major challenge for the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) programme. This article uses a comparative analysis of the agricultural and forestry practices of indigenous peoples and settlers in the Bolivian Amazon to show how community-level institutions regulate the trade-offs between community livelihoods, forest species diversity, and carbon sequestration. The authors argue that REDD+ implementation in such areas runs the risk of: 1) reinforcing economic inequalities based on previous and potential land use impacts on ecosystems (baseline), depending on the socio-cultural groups targeted; 2) increasing pressure on land used for food production, possibly reducing food security and redirecting labour towards scarce off-farm income opportunities; 3) increasing dependence on external funding and carbon market fluctuations instead of local production strategies; and 4) further incentivising the privatization and commodification of land to avoid transaction costs associated with collective property rights. The article also advises against taking a strictly economic, market-based approach to carbon sequestration, arguing that such an approach could endanger fragile socio-ecological systems. REDD+ schemes should directly support existing efforts towards forest sustainability rather than simply compensating local land users for avoiding deforestation and forest degradation

Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

The Impact of Human Asset Specificity on the Sourcing of Application Services

The question concerning the circumstances under which it is advantageous for a company to outsource certain information systems functions has been a controversial issue for the last decade. While opponents emphasize the risks of outsourcing based on the loss of strategic potentials and increased transaction costs, proponents emphasize the strategic benefits of outsourcing and high potentials of cost-savings. This paper brings together both views by examining the conditions under which both the strategic potentials as well as savings in production and transaction costs of developing and maintaining software applications can better be achieved in-house as opposed to by an external vendor. We develop a theoretical framework from three complementary theories and test it empirically based on a mail survey of 139 German companies. The results show that insourcing is more cost efficient and advantageous in creating strategic benefits through IS if the provision of application services requires a high amount of firm specific human assets. These relationships, however, are partially moderated by differences in the trustworthiness and intrinsic motivation of internal versus external IS professionals. Moreover, capital shares with an external vendor can lower the risk of high transaction costs as well the risk of loosing the strategic opportunities of an IS.

The Entrepreneurial Theory of the Firm and the Theory of the Entrepreneurial Firm

The entrepreneurial theory of the firm argues that entrepreneurship, properly understood, is a crucial but neglected element in explaining the nature and boundaries of the firm. By contrast, the theory of the entrepreneurial firm presumably seeks not to understand the nature and boundaries of "the firm" in general but rather to understand a particular type of firm: one that is entrepreneurial. This paper is an attempt to reconcile the two. After briefly delving for the concept of entrepreneurship in the work of Schumpeter, Kirzner, and (especially) Knight, the paper makes the case for the entrepreneurial theory of the firm. In such a theory, the firm exists as the solution to a coordination problem in a world of change and uncertainty, including Knightian or structural uncertainty. Taking a historical or developmental perspective, the paper then examines the changing nature of the entrepreneurial coordination problem over the life-cycle. In this formulation, "the entrepreneurial firm" is a nascent firm or proto-firm facing a problem of coordinating systemic change in economic capabilities. Lacking (by definition) adequate guidance from existing systems of rules of conduct embedded in markets or organizations, the entrepreneurial firm typically relies on a form of organization Max Weber called charismatic authority. In the end, although there is no such thing as a non-entrepreneurial firm, firms that must solve coordination problems in a world of novelty and systemic change ("entrepreneurial firms") are perhaps the purest case of the entrepreneurial theory of the firm.

A New Economic Analysis of the American Revolution

We offer an analysis of the American Revolution in which actors are modeled as choosing the sovereign organization that maximizes their net expected benefits. Benefits of secession derive from satisfaction of greed and settlement of grievance. Costs derive from the cost of civil war and lost benefit of Empire membership. When expected net benefits are positive for both secessionists and the Empire civil war ensues, otherwise it is settled or never begins in the first place. The novelty of our discussion is to show how diverse economic and non-economic factors (such as pamphleteering by Thomas Paine and the morale of the Revolutionary forces) can be integrated into a single economic model.

Multiplant strategy under core-periphery structure

A typical implicit assumption on monopolistic competition models for trade and economic geography is that firms can produce and sell only at one place. This paper fallows endogenous determination of the number of plants in a new economic geography model and examine the stable outcomes of organization choice between single-plant and multi-plant in two regions. We explicitly consider the firms' trade-off between larger economies of scale under single plant configuration and the saving in interregional transport costs under multi-plant configuration. We show that organization change arises under decreasing transportation costs and observe several organization configurations under a generalized cost function.

The trade credit in the Spanish agrofood industry

Selling on credit is rather frequent in Mediterranean countries. Its generalized use can lead to excessive enlargements of the payment periods and consequently can deteriorate the profitability of firms. In spite of the relevance of this problem there are few empirical researches. This work intends to fill this gap and to shed light on the factors related to the extension of trade credit. In the theoretical and empirical literature, different motives have been proposed to explain this issue: a mechanism to reduce transaction costs, a financial alternative to the bank system and an additional tool to improve commercial activities. To contrast these ideas a panel of 388 firms of the Spanish agrofood industry has been taken, and static and dynamic regression models have been estimated by using robust methods to heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation and endogeneity of the explanatory variables. The results confirm that trade credit receivable is associated with more active firms and with cheaper bank financing. Other factors with positive relationships are short-term bank debts and accounts payable. These findings are consistent with commercial motives, rather than a pure financial view, in the sense that financial distressed producers extend trade credit as a way of promoting their products and in turn increasing their sales.

Analysis of alternative tendering mechanisms for transportation Public-Private Partnerships

This paper describes a theoretical model based primarily on transaction costs, for comparing the various tendering mechanisms used for transportation Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. In particular, the model contrasts negotiated procedures with the open procedure, as defined by the current European Union legislation on public tendering. The model includes both ex ante transaction costs (borne during the tendering stage) and ex post transaction costs (such as enforcement costs, re-negotiation costs, and costs arising from litigation between partners), explaining the trade-off between them. Generally speaking, it is assumed that the open procedure implies lower transaction costs ex ante, while the negotiated procedure reduces the probability of the appearance of new contingencies not foreseen in the contract, hence diminishing the expected value of transaction costs ex post. Therefore, the balance between ex ante and ex post transaction costs is the main criterion for deciding whether the open or negotiated procedure would be optimal. Notwithstanding, empirical evidence currently exists only on ex ante transaction costs in transportation infrastructure projects. This evidence has shown a relevant difference between the two procedures as far as ex ante costs are concerned, favouring the open procedure. The model developed in this paper also demonstrates that a larger degree of complexity in a contract does not unequivocally favour the use of a negotiated procedure. Only in those cases dealing with very innovative projects, where important dimensions of the quality of the asset or service are not verifiable, may we observe an advantage in favour of the negotiated procedure. The bottom line is that we find it difficult to justify the employment of negotiated procedures in most transportation PPP contracts, especially in the field of roads. Nevertheless, the field remains open for future empirical work and research on the levels of transaction costs borne ex post in PPP contracts, as well as on the probabilities of such costs appearing under any of the procurement procedures.

O valor percebido de loja pelos clientes, na perspectiva dos benefícios, como antecedente de sua lealdade à loja

O shopping center ainda é, sem dúvida nenhuma, um local atraente para os clientes realizarem suas compras. O mix de lojas presentes neste modal varejista, responsável pela oferta de serviços como estacionamento, entretenimento, alimentação, além de uma gama interminável de todo tipo de mercadoria que se possa imaginar, é o responsável por atrair, todos os dias, milhares de clientes para seu interior. Não obstante todas essas facilidades, os lojistas de shopping centers estão enfrentando uma forte concorrência de outros modais varejistas como as vendas diretas (por meio de demonstradores), as compras eletrônicas; a venda automática (por meio das máquinas de venda) e os serviços de compras (varejo sem loja que atende a clientes específicos). Em função disso, este trabalho propôs-se a discutir como as lojas poderiam atrair uma maior atenção de seus clientes por intermédio do valor percebido por eles. Este valor, sob a perspectiva do benefício, deriva da avaliação global do cliente quanto às vantagens que ele ganha ao ponderar os benefícios e os sacrifícios percebidos quando adquire produtos. Tais sacrifícios podem ser de ordem não monetária (custos de transação, pesquisa, negociação, tempo incorrido na aquisição do produto etc.). Também se estudou o impacto deste valor na fidelização do cliente a certa loja. Após extensa consulta bibliográfica sobre os conceitos apresentados, adotou-se a metodologia do Discurso do Sujeito Coletivo (DSC) para se analisar os resultados obtidos na coleta dos dados por meio de entrevista com clientes fiéis de lojas situadas em shoppings. O DSC apoia-se na teoria da representação social, de Jodelet, segundo a qual grupos sociais específicos compartilham ideias e valores comuns em um dado momento. Ele busca, portanto, estabelecer um caminho sistemático para descobrir estas representações sociais destes grupos específicos no que tange aos temas propostos. Os resultados apresentados revelaram que o ambiente da loja e sua imagem influenciaram, muito positivamente, a percepção dos clientes como atributos importantes para se gerar valor percebido, enquanto o prestígio e o local onde a loja está situada dentro do shopping foram avaliados por eles como características medianamente influenciadoras neste sentido. Além disso, verificou-se que o valor percebido pelo cliente influencia, positivamente, em sua decisão de se tornar fiel a determinada loja. No final, foram lembradas ações de marketing que poderiam ser desenvolvidas pelos gestores de loja a fim de alavancarem o valor de loja percebido pelo cliente, na perspectiva dos benefícios, vital à sua fidelização.

Integração espacial e eficiência do hedge no mercado sul-americano de soja: comparações entre Brasil e Argentina

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o potencial de desenvolvimento do contrato futuro de soja no Brasil, por meio da atração de hedgers brasileiros e argentinos. Para tanto, faz-se necessário conhecer os padrões das conexões dos preços entre as regiões analisadas. Nesse sentido, o Capítulo 2 investigou a integração espacial do mercado físico de soja no Brasil (região de Sorriso, no Mato Grosso) e na Argentina (região de Rosário, na província de Santa Fé) e comparou ao grau de integração com os Estados Unidos. Foram empregados modelos autorregressivos com threshold (TAR e M-TAR) e modelos vetoriais de correção de erros, lineares e com threshold (VECM e TVECM), visando captar os efeitos dos custos de transação sobre a integração espacial entre essas regiões. Os resultados apontaram que o mercado de soja brasileiro, argentino e norte-americano são integrados, mesmo considerando-se os efeitos dos custos de transação sobre as decisões de arbitragem espacial. Consequentemente, os preços da soja no mercado internacional tendem a refletir o comportamento dos principais países produtores. Apesar disso, o tempo de transmissão de choques de preços mostrou-se, em geral, menor entre Brasil e Argentina, refletindo a proximidade geográfica. Apontou-se também o comportamento assimétrico da transmissão desses choques, uma vez que choques positivos sobre a relação de longo prazo tendem a ser mais persistentes que os negativos. Se o contrato futuro reflete o comportamento de preços de um único mercado físico integrado, deve-se então esperar que o risco de base seja menor para este mercado e, portanto, que a eficiência do hedge seja maior. No Capítulo 3, o objetivo se constituiu em verificar se há maior eficiência no hedge realizado com os contratos com vencimento em março na CME em relação à BM&FBOVESPA, considerando-se as relações de longo prazo entre os preços à vista e futuros, bem como a dinâmica na estrutura de covariâncias condicionais, por meio de modelos de correção de erros (VECM) e modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional generalizados com correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC-GARCH). Os resultados mostraram que, em geral, a introdução da dinâmica nos segundos momentos das distribuições dos erros tende a aumentar a eficiência da estratégia de hedge. Além disso, foi observado que os produtores de Sorriso tendem a obter melhores condições de hedge na CME, embora haja redução da variância ao se operar na BM&FBOVESPA. Por outro lado, a eficiência do hedge para os produtores de Rosário foi significativamente maior na BM&FBOVESPA do que na CME, o que indica o mercado potencial de hedgers argentinos para negociar o contrato futuro de soja local no Brasil.

1 + 1 = 3? EU-US voting cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly. EU Diplomacy Paper 07/2012, September 2012

This paper investigates the factors that explain the voting cohesion of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) on foreign policy issues in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). It is often argued that the EU and the US are simply too different to cooperate within international organizations and thus to vote the same way, for example, in the UNGA. However, there is still a lack of research on this point and, more importantly, previous studies have not analyzed which factors explain EU-US voting cohesion. In this paper, I try to fill this gap by studying voting cohesion from 1980 until 2011 on issues of both ‘high’ politics (security) and ‘low’ politics (human rights) not only as regards EU-US voting cohesion, but also concerning voting cohesion among EU member states. I test six hypotheses derived from International Relations theories, and I argue that EU-US voting cohesion is best explained by the topic of the issue voted upon, whether an issue is marked as ‘important’ by the US government, and by the type of resolution. On the EU level, the length of Union membership and transaction costs matter most.

Sales Market Regulations for Agricultural Land in EU Member States and Candidate Countries. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 14, February 2012

All agricultural markets are subjected to institutional regulations that – in one way or another –affect the functioning of these markets, and this is no different for the agricultural land market in the EU. In this paper, we describe the existing regulations in the sales markets for agricultural land in selected EU member states and candidate countries. The analysis focuses on three types of sales market regulations and institutions: quantity regulations, price regulations and transaction costs. The differences in the regulatory framework between land acquisition and ownership by domestic and foreign investors are analysed, as well as the taxes associated with land sales and ownership, zoning regulations and market imperfections.

Rental Market Regulations for Agricultural Land in EU Member States and Candidate Countries. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 15, February 2012

In this paper, we describe the regulations governing the rental markets for agricultural land in selected EU member states and candidate countries. The analysis focuses on various kinds of regulations and institutions connected with the land rental market, including price, tenancy duration, quantity and other regulations, as well as transaction costs. The diverse government regulations on price restrictions and tenancy duration are analysed, along with the social norms observed for rental payments and contracts. The paper also examines the type and registration of contracts, the contract enforcement rules, the regulations on the inheritability of contracts and the pre-emptive right of tenants to buy the land.

Institutional Factors Affecting Agricultural Land Markets. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 16, February 2012

This paper analyses the main institutional factors affecting the rental and sales markets for agricultural land. Particular attention is paid to the effects of the common agricultural policy on land markets, and more specifically the underlying mechanism through which agricultural subsidies are capitalised into land values and farmland rents. This paper also provides a broad overview of the empirical studies that estimate the impact of agricultural support policies on land rents and land prices. Various other fundamental factors that affect agricultural land markets are discussed, such as land market institutions and regulations, transaction costs, credit market constraints and levels of profitability, the legal means of contract enforcement and land use alternatives.