906 resultados para Timed and Probabilistic Automata


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Risco de queda em idosos pode ser avaliado por meio de um teste simples de mobilidade. OBJETIVO: Avaliar o equilíbrio de idosos usando o teste Timed up and go. MÉTODO: Os indivíduos tiveram o tempo medido desde o momento em que se levantaram de uma cadeira, caminharam 3 metros para a frente e retornaram à cadeira. Os idosos também responderam questões sobre desequilíbrio, tontura e queda. RESULTADOS: Cerca de 69% dos sujeitos realizaram o teste em até 19 segundos. Houve correlação significativa entre desequilíbrio, tempo dispendido e queda, assim como entre tontura e queda. CONCLUSÃO: A maior parte dos idosos mostrou baixos valores no teste, o que sugere boa mobilidade funcional. Entretanto, um número expressivo de indivíduos com valores mais elevados estão, provavelmente, mais propensos a quedas e à dependência menor ou maior nas atividades da vida diária.

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The present work evaluated low-cost protocols for timed artificial insemination (TAI) in beef cattle. In Experiment 1, cycling nonlactating Nelore cows (Bos indicus, n=98) were assigned to the following groups: GnRH-PGF (GP) and GnRH-PGF-GnRH (GPG), whereas cycling (n=328, Experiment 2) or anestrus (n = 225, Experiment 3) lactating (L) cows were divided into 3 groups: GP-L, GPG-L and GnRH-PCF-Estradiol benzoate (GPE-L). In Experiment 4, lactating cows (n=201) were separated into 3 groups: GP-L, GPE-L and G 1/2PE-L. Animals from Experiment 1, 3 and 4 were treated (Day 0), at random stages of the estrous cycle, with 8 mug of buserelin acetate (GnRH agonist) intramuscularly (im), whereas in Experiment 2 half of the cows received 8 and the other half 12 mug of GnRH (im). Seven days later (D 7) all animals were treated with 25 mg of dinoprost trometamine (PGF2 alpha, im) except those cows from the G 1/2PE-L group which received only 1/2 dose of PGF2 alpha (12.5 mg) via intravulvo-submucosa (ivsm). Alter PGF2 alpha injection the animals from the control groups (GP and GP-L) were observed twice daily to detect estrus and Al was performed 12 h afterwards. The cows from the other groups received a second GnRH injection (D 8 in GPG-L and d9 in GPG groups) or one injection of estradiol benzoate (EB, 1.0 mg, D 8 in GPE-L group). All cows from GPG and GPG-L or GPE-L groups were AI 20 to 24 or 30 to 34 h, respectively, after the last hormonal injection. Pregnancy was determined by ultrasonography or rectal palpation 30 to 50 days after AI. In the control groups (GP and GP-L) percentage of animals detected in heat (44.5 to 70.3%) and pregnancy rate (20 to 42%) varied according to the number of animals with corpus luteum (CL) at the beginning of treatment. The administration of a second dose of GnRH either 24 (Experiment 2) or 48 h (Experiment 1) after PGF2 alpha resulted in 47.7 and 44.9% pregnancy rates, respectively, after TAI in cycling animals. However, in anestrus cows the GPG treatment induced a much lower pregnancy rate (14.9%) after TAI. The replacement of the second dose of GnRH by EB (GPE-L) resulted in a pregnancy rate (43.3%) comparable to that obtained after GnRH treatment (GPG-L, 47.7%, Experiment 2). Furthermore, the use of 1/2 dose of PGF2 alpha (12.5 mg ivms, Experiment 4) resulted in pregnancy rate (43.5%) similar to that observed with the full dose (im). Both protocols GPG and GPE were effective in synchronizing ovulation in cycling Nelore cows and allowed approximately a 45% pregnancy rate after TAI. Additionally, the GPE treatment is a promising alternative to the use of GPG in timed Al of beef cattle, due to the low cost of EB when compared to GnRH agonists. (C) 2001 by Elsevier B.V.

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This work presents a methodology for elastic-plastic fracture reliability analysis of plane and axisymmetric structures. The structural reliability analysis is accomplished by means of the FORM analytical method. The virtual crack extension technique based on a direct minimization of potencial energy is utililized for the calculation of the energy release rate. Results are presented to illustrate the performance of the adopted methodology.

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The objectives of the present study were to evaluate factors associated with estrous synchronization responses and pregnancy per insemination (P/AI) in Bos indicus beef cows submitted to progesterone-based fixed-time artificial insemination (FTAI) protocols. A total of 2388 cows (1869 Nellore and 519 crossbred Nellore x Angus) from 10 commercial farms were evaluated to determine the relationships among breed, body condition score (BCS) on the first day of the FTAI protocol, the occurrence of estrus between progesterone device removal and FTAI and diameter of largest ovarian follicle (LF) at FTAI on estrous synchronization responses and P/AI. Cows (n=412 primiparous; 1976 multiparous) received an intravaginal device containing progesterone or an ear implant containing norgestomet (a progestin), and an injection of estradiol at the beginning of the estrous synchronization protocol. Body condition was scored using a 1-5 scale on the first day of the FTAI protocol and at 30-60 days postpartum. Females received 300IU of equine chorionic gonadotropin (eCG) and PGF(2 alpha) on the day the progesterone device/implant was removed and were inseminated 48-60h later. At insemination, cows (n=2388) were submitted to an ultrasonographic exam to determine the diameter of the LF. Follicles were classified into four categories based on mean and standard deviation (SD) of the LF (LF1 = two SD below the mean; LF2 = mean minus one SD; LF3 = mean plus one SD; LF4 = two SD above the mean). Ovulation rate was determined in a subset of cows (n=813) by three consecutive ultrasonographic exams: (1) at time of progesterone device/implant removal, (2) at time of FTAI and (3) 48 h after FTAI. Ovulation was defined as the disappearance of a large follicle (>= 8.0 mm) that was previously recorded. Estrus was determined in a subset of the cows (n = 445) by the activation of a detection of estrous patch placed on the tail head on the day of progesterone device/implant removal. Pregnancy was diagnosed 30 days after FTAI. Pregnancy was influenced (P = 0.001) by follicle diameter [LF1 = 27.5% (81/295), LF2 = 46.6% (328/705), LF3 = 57.9% (647/1118), LF4 = 63.3% (171/270)] and the occurrence of estrus [estrus = 67.7% (174/257) and no estrus = 36.2% (68/188)]. Follicle diameter at FTAI influenced ovulation rate [LF1 = 42.5% (34/80), LF2 = 73.9% (161/218), LF3 = 95.8% (407/425), LF4 = 97.8% (88/90)], the occurrence of estrus [LF1 = 54.8% (51/93), LF2 = 33.6% (43/128), LF3 = 68.9% (126/183), LF4 = 90.2% (37/41)] and P/AI among cows that had ovulations [LF1 =32.4% (11/34), LF2 = 50.3% (81/161), LF3 = 60.0% (244/407), LF4 = 68.2% (60/88)]. Improving estrous responses between progesterone device withdrawal and FTAI and increasing the diameter of the LF at FTAI may be important aspects to achieve improved estrous synchronization responses and P/AI following progesterone/progestin and estradiol based FTAI protocols in suckled Bos indicus cows. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

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Our hypothesis was that increasing the length of an estradiol and progesterone (P4) timed artificial insemination (TAI) protocol would improve pregnancy per artificial insemination (P/AI). Lactating Holstein cows (n = 759) yielding 31 +/- 0.30 kg of milk/d with a detectable corpus luteum (CL) at d - 11 were randomly assigned to receive TAI (d 0) following 1 of 2 treatments: (8d) d - 10 controlled internal drug release (CIDR) and 2.0 mg of estradiol benzoate, d - 3 = PGF(2 alpha) (25 mg of dinoprost tromethamine), d - 2 = CIDR removal and 1.0 mg of estradiol cypionate, d 0 = TAI; or (9d) d - 11 = CIDR and estradiol benzoate, d -4 = PGF(2 alpha), d -2 CIDR removal and estradiol cypionate, d 0 TAI. Cows were considered to have their estrous cycle synchronized in response to the protocol by the absence of a CL at artificial insemination (d 0) and presence of a CL on d 7. Pregnancy diagnoses were performed on d 32 and 60. The ovulatory follicle diameter at TAI (d 0) did not differ between treatments (14.7 +/- 0.39 vs. 15.0 +/- 0.40 mm for 8 and 9 d, respectively). The 9d cows tended to have greater P4 concentrations on d 7 in synchronized cows (3.14 +/- 0.18 ng/mL) than the 8d cows (3.05 +/- 0.18 ng/mL). Although the P/AI at d 32 [45 (175/385) vs. 43.9% (166/374) for 8d and 9d, respectively] and 60 [38.1 (150/385) vs. 40.4% (154/374) for 8d and 9d, respectively] was not different, the 9d cows had lower pregnancy losses [7.6% (12/166)] than 8d cows [14.7% (25/175)]. The cows in the 9d program were more likely to be detected in estrus [72.0% (269/374)] compared with 8d cows [62% (240/385)]. Expression of estrus improved synchronization [97.4 (489/501) vs. 81% (202/248)], P4 concentrations at d 7 (3.22 +/- 0.16 vs. 2.77 +/- 0.17 ng/mL), P/AI at d 32 [51.2 (252/489) vs. 39.4% (81/202)], P/AI at d 60 [46.3 (230/489) vs. 31.1% (66/202)], and decreased pregnancy loss [9.3 (22/252) vs. 19.8% (15/81)] compared with cows that did not show estrus, respectively. Cows not detected in estrus with small (<11 mm) or large follicles (>17 mm) had greater pregnancy loss; however, in cows detected in estrus, no effect of follicle diameter on pregnancy loss was observed. In conclusion, increasing the length of the protocol for TAI increased the percentage of cows detected in estrus and decreased pregnancy loss.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objective - For patients with medication refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE), surgery offers the hope of a cure. However, up to 30% of patients with MTLE continue to experience disabling seizures after surgery. The reasons why some patients do not achieve seizure freedom are poorly understood. A promising theory suggests that epileptogenic networks are broadly distributed in surgically refractory MTLE, involving regions beyond the medial temporal lobe. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate the distribution of epileptogenic networks in MTLE using Bayesian distributed EEG source analysis from preoperative ictal onset recordings. This analysis has the advantage of generating maps of source probability, which can be subjected to voxel-based statistical analyses.Methods - We compared 10 patients who achieved post-surgical seizure freedom with 10 patients who continued experiencing seizures after surgery. Voxel-based Wilcoxon tests were employed with correction for multiple comparisons.Results - We observed that ictal EEG source intensities were significantly more likely to occur in lateral temporal and posterior medial temporal regions in patients with continued seizures post-surgery.Conclusions - Our findings support the theory of broader spatial distribution of epileptogenic networks at seizure onset in patients with surgically refractory MTLE.