Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognized as one of the most risky project schemes. There are instances of project failure where a BOT scheme was employed. Ineffective rts are increasingly being managed using various risk management tools and techniques. However, application of those tools depends on the nature of the project, organization's policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the project team members, and availability of the resources. Understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of risk management tools and techniques, helps select processes of risk management for effective project implementation in a BOT scheme. This paper studies application of risk management tools and techniques in BOT projects through reviews of relevant literatures and develops a model for selecting risk management process for BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks. This study would contribute to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of using different risk calculation tools on how general practitioners and practice nurses evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with clinical data routinely available in patients' records. DESIGN: Subjective estimates of the risk of coronary heart disease and results of four different methods of calculation of risk were compared with each other and a reference standard that had been calculated with the Framingham equation; calculations were based on a sample of patients' records, randomly selected from groups at risk of coronary heart disease. SETTING: General practices in central England. PARTICIPANTS: 18 general practitioners and 18 practice nurses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Agreement of results of risk estimation and risk calculation with reference calculation; agreement of general practitioners with practice nurses; sensitivity and specificity of the different methods of risk calculation to detect patients at high or low risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Only a minority of patients' records contained all of the risk factors required for the formal calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease (concentrations of high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were present in only 21%). Agreement of risk calculations with the reference standard was moderate (kappa=0.33-0.65 for practice nurses and 0.33 to 0.65 for general practitioners, depending on calculation tool), showing a trend for underestimation of risk. Moderate agreement was seen between the risks calculated by general practitioners and practice nurses for the same patients (kappa=0.47 to 0.58). The British charts gave the most sensitive results for risk of coronary heart disease (practice nurses 79%, general practitioners 80%), and it also gave the most specific results for practice nurses (100%), whereas the Sheffield table was the most specific method for general practitioners (89%). CONCLUSIONS: Routine calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease in primary care is hampered by poor availability of data on risk factors. General practitioners and practice nurses are able to evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with only moderate accuracy. Data about risk factors need to be collected systematically, to allow the use of the most appropriate calculation tools.

Real options and multinational investments : an empirical study of risk, performance and organisational awareness

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This thesis is a cross-disciplinary study of the empirical impact of real options theory in the fields of decision sciences and performance management. Borrowing from the economics, strategy and operations research literature, the research examines the risk and performance implications of real options in firms’ strategic investments and multinational operations. An emphasis is placed on the flexibility potential and competitive advantage of multinational corporations to explore the extent to which real options analysis can be classified as best practice in management research. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques the evidence suggests that, if real options are explored and exploited appropriately, real options management can result in superior performance for multinational companies. The qualitative findings give an overview of the practical advantages and disadvantages of real options and the statistical results reveal that firms which have developed a high awareness of their real options are, as predicted by the theory, able to reduce their downside risk and increase profits through flexibility, organisational slack and multinationality. Although real options awareness does not systematically guarantee higher returns from operations, supplementary findings indicate that firms with evidence of significant investments in the acquisition of real options knowledge tend to outperform competitors which are unaware of their real options. There are three contributions of this research. First, it extends the real options and capacity planning literature to path-dependent contingent-claims analysis to underline the benefits of average type options in capacity allocation. Second, it is thought to be the first to explicitly examine the performance effects of real options on a sample of firms which have developed partial capabilities in real options analysis suggesting that real options diffusion can be key to value creation. Third, it builds a new decision-aiding framework to facilitate the use of real options in projects appraisal and strategic planning.