Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.

Interaction of equatorial waves through resonance with the diurnal cycle of tropical heating

In this work, a new theoretical mechanism is presented in which equatorial Rossby and inertio-gravity wave modes may interact with each other through resonance with the diurnal cycle of tropical deep convection. We have adopted the two-layer incompressible equatorial primitive equations forced by a parametric heating that roughly represents deep convection activity in the tropical atmosphere. The heat source was parametrized in the simplest way according to the hypothesis that it is proportional to the lower-troposphere moisture convergence, with the background moisture state function mimicking the structure of the ITCZ. In this context, we have investigated the possibility of resonant interaction between equatorially trapped Rossby and inertio-gravity modes through the diurnal cycle of the background moisture state function. The reduced dynamics of a single resonant duo shows that when this diurnal variation is considered, a Rossby wave mode can undergo significant amplitude modulations when interacting with an inertio-gravity wave mode, which is not possible in the context of the resonant triad non-linear interaction. Therefore, the results suggest that the diurnal variation of the ITCZ can be a possible dynamical mechanism that leads the Rossby waves to be significantly affected by high frequency modes.

Contributions to the theory of magnetorotational instability and waves in a rotating plasma

The one-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory of magnetorotational instability (MRI) in an ideal plasma is presented. The theory predicts the possibility of MRI for arbitrary 0, where 0 is the ratio of the plasma pressure to the magnetic field pressure. The kinetic theory of MRI in a collisionless plasma is developed. It is demonstrated that as in the ideal MHD, MRI can occur in such a plasma for arbitrary P. The mechanism of MRI is discussed; it is shown that the instability appears because of a perturbed parallel electric field. The electrodynamic description of MRI is formulated under the assumption that the dispersion relation is expressed in terms of the permittivity tensor; general properties of this tensor are analyzed. It is shown to be separated into the nonrotational and rotational parts. With this in mind, the first step for incorporation of MRI into the general theory of plasma instabilities is taken. The rotation effects on Alfven waves are considered.

Traveling waves in the Lethargic Crab Disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mean-field model for the interference of matter-waves from a three-dimensional optical trap

Using the mean-field time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii equation we study the formation of a repulsive Bose-Einstein condensate on a combined optical and harmonic traps in two and three dimensions and subsequent generation of the interference pattern upon the removal of the combined traps as in the experiment by, Greiner et al. [Nature (London 415 (2002) 39]. For optical traps of moderate strength, interference pattern of 27 (9) prominent bright spots is found to be formed in three. (two) dimensions on a cubic (square) lattice in agreement with experiment. Similar interference pattern can also be formed upon removal of the optical lattice trap only. The pattern so formed can oscillate for a long time in the harmonic trap which can be observed experimentally. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

The nonlinear essence of gravitational waves

A critical review of gravitational wave theory is made. It is pointed out that the usual linear approach to the gravitational wave theory is neither conceptually consistent nor mathematically justified. Relying upon that analysis it is argued that-analogously to a Yang-Mills propagating field, which must be nonlinear to carry its gauge charge-a gravitational wave must necessarily be nonlinear to transport its own charge-that is, energy-momentum.

Renomalization of the NN interaction at NNLO: Uncoupled peripheral waves

We apply the subtractive renormalization method to the nucleon-nucleon interaction at Next-to-Next-to-Leading order (NNLO). Here we show the results for some uncoupled peripheral waves.

BCS superconductivity in the van Hove scenario in s and d waves

The effect of including a van Hove singularity in the density of state of a renormalized BCS equation in s and d waves and its appropriateness in describing some properties of high-Tc cuprates in the weak-coupling region are studied in two space dimensions. The specific heat and knight shift as a function of temperature exhibit scaling below the critical temperature in d wave. We also study the jump in the specific heat at the critical temperature Tc in s and d waves, which can have values significantly higher than the standard BCS values and which increases with Tc, as experimentally observed in many d-wave high-Tc materials. The experimental results on the specific heat and knight shift of the Y-123 system are compared with the theoretical predictions.

Low-frequency absorption cross section of the electromagnetic waves for extreme Reissner-Nordstrom black holes in higher dimensions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sea waves generated by extratropical cyclones in the South Atlantic Ocean: Hindcast and validation against altimeter data

This work presents analyses of the atmospheric conditions and the hindcast of the surface wave field when six extratropical cyclones formed and displaced over the South Atlantic Ocean (10degreesN, 60degreesS; 75degreesW, 15degreesE) between April and September 1999. These events caused high sea waves associated with hazardous conditions along the south and southeast coast of Brazil. The meteorological composite fields for these cyclones show a strong near-surface wind velocity (up to 14 m s(-1)) during its mature phase. The sea-state wave hindcast was obtained using a third-generation wave model forced by the 10-m above ground level wind field from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. Closer to the south and southeast Brazilian coast, the hindcast results showed significant wave heights of up to 5 m in some of the events. The wave hindcast results for the significant wave height were compared against satellite altimeter data at 6 h intervals. The statistical index showed a systematic underestimation of the significant wave height by 0.5 m. The correlation between wave hindcast and altimeter measurements was greater than 90%, showing a good phase reproduction by the wave model.

The use of high frequency waves to treat onychomycosis-preliminary communication of three cases

The research evaluated the efficacy of high frequency waves in the treatment of onychomycosis in three patients during twelve months through the clinical examination of nails and also through mycological examination. The causative agent of the mycosis, in the three patients, was the dermatophyte Trichophyton rubrum and after application of high frequency, it was possible to notice a great improvement in the appearance of nails and also growth inhibition in culture despite the fact that the mycological examination remained positive. The preliminary study of the three cases demonstrated that the fungistatic activity of high frequency waves is a promising method to be used in combination with conventional drugs.

Interaction of equatorial waves through resonance with the diurnal cycle of tropical heating

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)