The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Er : YAG laser, ultrasonic system, and curette produce different profiles on dentine root surfaces: An in vitro study

Objective: The aim of the present study was to compare the in vitro effects of the Er:YAG laser, an ultrasonic system, and manual curette on dentine root surface by roughness and micro-morphological analysis. Materials and Methods: Thirty-six flattened bovine roots were randomly assigned to one of the following groups: group 1 (n = 12): Er: YAG laser ( 2940 nm), 120 mJ/pulse, 10 Hz, 8.4 J/cm(2); group 2 ( n = 12): ultrasonic system; and group 3 ( n = 12): manual curette. The mean surface roughness (Ra) of each sample was measured using a profilometer before and after the treatments. The micro-morphology of the treated and untreated ( control) root surfaces was evaluated with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) at 50 x and 1000 x magnification. Results: Analysis with the profilometer showed that for equal times of instrumentation, the smoothest surfaces were produced by the Er: YAG laser and the ultrasonic system, followed by the curette ( p < 0.05). Morphological analyses demonstrated that treatment with the Er: YAG laser produced some areas with an irregular surface, craters, and ablation of the intertubular dentin. The smear layer was removed and dentine tubules were opened by both curettes and the ultrasonic system. The micro-morphology of the dentine root surface after ultrasonic treatment, however, demonstrated randomly distributed areas cratering. Conclusion: All instruments increased the roughness of the dentine root surface after treatment; however, the curette produced rougher surfaces than the other devices. SEM analysis revealed distinct root surface profiles produced by the three devices.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 1: Model description and evaluation

We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

On the mass determination of super-Earths orbiting active stars: the CoRoT-7 system

Context. Star activity makes the mass determination of CoRoT-7b and CoRoT 7c uncertain. Investigators of the CoRoT team proposed several solutions, but all but one of them are larger than the initial determinations of 4.8 +/- 0.8 M(Earth) for CoRoT-7b and 8.4 +/- 0.9 M(Earth) for CoRoT 7c. Aims. This investigation uses the excellent HARPS radial velocity measurements of CoRoT-7 to redetermine the planet masses and to explore techniques for determining mass and orbital elements of planets discovered around active stars when the relative variation in the radial velocity due to the star activity cannot be considered as just noise and can exceed the variation due to the planets. Methods. The main technique used here is a self-consistent version of the high-pass filter used by Queloz et al. (2009, A&A, 506, 303) in the first mass determination of CoRoT-7b and CoRoT-7c. The results are compared to those given by two alternative techniques: (1) the approach proposed by Hatzes et al. (2010, A&A, 520, A93) using only those nights in which two or three observations were done; (2) a pure Fourier analysis. In all cases, the eccentricities are taken equal to zero as indicated by the study of the tidal evolution of the system. The periods are also kept fixed at the values given by Queloz et al. Only the observations done in the time interval BJD 2 454 847-873 are used because they include many nights with multiple observations; otherwise, it is not possible to separate the effects of the rotation fourth harmonic (5.91 d = P(rot)/4) from the alias of the orbital period of CoRoT-7b (0.853585 d). Results. The results of the various approaches are combined to give planet mass values 8.0 +/- 1.2 M(Earth) for CoRoT-7b and 13.6 +/- 1.4 M(Earth) for CoRoT 7c. An estimation of the variation of the radial velocity of the star due to its activity is also given. Conclusions. The results obtained with three different approaches agree to give higher masses than those in previous determinations. From the existing internal structure models they indicate that CoRoT-7b is a much denser super-Earth. The bulk density is 11 +/- 3.5 g cm(-3), so CoRoT-7b may be rocky with a large iron core.

Renal denervation in an animal model of diabetes and hypertension: Impact on the autonomic nervous system and nephropathy

Background: The effects of renal denervation on cardiovascular reflexes and markers of nephropathy in diabetic-hypertensive rats have not yet been explored. Methods: Aim: To evaluate the effects of renal denervation on nephropathy development mechanisms (blood pressure, cardiovascular autonomic changes, renal GLUT2) in diabetic-hypertensive rats. Forty-one male spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) similar to 250 g were injected with STZ or not; 30 days later, surgical renal denervation (RD) or sham procedure was performed; 15 days later, glycemia and albuminuria (ELISA) were evaluated. Catheters were implanted into the femoral artery to evaluate arterial pressure (AP) and heart rate variability (spectral analysis) one day later in conscious animals. Animals were killed, kidneys removed, and cortical renal GLUT2 quantified (Western blotting). Results: Higher glycemia (p < 0.05) and lower mean AP were observed in diabetics vs. nondiabetics (p < 0.05). Heart rate was higher in renal-denervated hypertensive and lower in diabetic-hypertensive rats (384.8 +/- 37, 431.3 +/- 36, 316.2 +/- 5, 363.8 +/- 12 bpm in SHR, RD-SHR, STZ-SHR and RD-STZ-SHR, respectively). Heart rate variability was higher in renal-denervated diabetic-hypertensive rats (55.75 +/- 25.21, 73.40 +/- 53.30, 148.4 +/- 93 in RD-SHR, STZ-SHR-and RD-STZ-SHR, respectively, p < 0.05), as well as the LF component of AP variability (1.62 +/- 0.9, 2.12 +/- 0.9, 7.38 +/- 6.5 in RD-SHR, STZ-SHR and RD-STZ-SHR, respectively, p < 0.05). GLUT2 renal content was higher in all groups vs. SHR. Conclusions: Renal denervation in diabetic-hypertensive rats improved previously reduced heart rate variability. The GLUT2 equally overexpressed by diabetes and renal denervation may represent a maximal derangement effect of each condition.

Aspergillus nidulans as a biological system to detect the genotoxic effects of mercury fumes on eukaryotes

Mercury (Hg) pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems. Due to public concern prompted by the symptoms displayed by people who consumed contaminated fish in Minamata, Japan in 1956, Hg pollution has since been kept under constant surveillance. However, despite considerable accumulation of knowledge on the noxious effects of ingested or inhaled Hg, especially for humans, there is virtually nothing known about the genotoxic effects of Hg. Because increased mitotic crossing over is assumed to be the first step leading to carcinogenesis, we used a sensitive short-term test (homozygotization index) to look for DNA alterations induced by Hg fumes. In one Aspergillus nidulans diploid strain (UT448//UT184), the effects of the Hg fumes appeared scattered all over the DNA, causing 3.05 times more recombination frequencies than the mean for other strains. Another diploid (Dp II- I//UT184) was little affected by Hg. This led us to hypothesize that a genetic factor present in the UT184 master strain genome, close to the nicB8 genetic marker, is responsible for this behavior. These findings corroborate our previous findings that the homozygotization index can be used as a bioassay for rapid and efficient assessment of ecotoxicological hazards.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 2: Model sensitivity to the biomass burning

We describe an estimation technique for biomass burning emissions in South America based on a combination of remote-sensing fire products and field observations, the Brazilian Biomass Burning Emission Model (3BEM). For each fire pixel detected by remote sensing, the mass of the emitted tracer is calculated based on field observations of fire properties related to the type of vegetation burning. The burnt area is estimated from the instantaneous fire size retrieved by remote sensing, when available, or from statistical properties of the burn scars. The sources are then spatially and temporally distributed and assimilated daily by the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) in order to perform the prognosis of related tracer concentrations. Three other biomass burning inventories, including GFEDv2 and EDGAR, are simultaneously used to compare the emission strength in terms of the resultant tracer distribution. We also assess the effect of using the daily time resolution of fire emissions by including runs with monthly-averaged emissions. We evaluate the performance of the model using the different emission estimation techniques by comparing the model results with direct measurements of carbon monoxide both near-surface and airborne, as well as remote sensing derived products. The model results obtained using the 3BEM methodology of estimation introduced in this paper show relatively good agreement with the direct measurements and MOPITT data product, suggesting the reliability of the model at local to regional scales.

Effects of the target spin on the reaction mechanism of the (16)O+(63)Cu system

Precise quasielastic and alpha-transfer excitation functions, at theta(lab) = 161 degrees, have been measured at energies near the Coulomb barrier for the (16)O + (63)Cu system. This is the first time reported quasielastic barrier distribution for a medium odd-A nucleus target deduced from the data. Additional elastic scattering angular distributions data available in the literature for this system were also used in the investigation of the role of several individual channels in the reaction dynamics, by comparing the data with free-parameter coupled-channels calculations. In order to do so, the nucleus-nucleus bare potential has a double-folding potential as the real component and only a very short-range imaginary potential. The quasielastic barrier distribution has been shown to be a powerful tool in this analysis at the barrier region. A high collectivity of the (63)Cu was observed, mainly due to the strong influence of its 5/2-and 7/2-states on all reaction channels investigated. A striking influence of the reorientation of the ground-state target-spin on the elastic cross sections, taken at backward angles, was also observed.

Nanostructured Films Based on Carbon Nanotubes and Cobalt for the Electrocatalytic Reduction of H(2)O(2)

This paper presents the fabrication of a nanothick Co-modified film electrochemically synthesized on layer-by-layer (LbL) structures made with dendrimer polyamidoamine/carbon nanotubes (PAMAM/CNT), and its electrocatalytic properties toward H(2)O(2) reduction. Scanning electron microscopy indicated the formation of a homogeneous, 14 nm thick Co film. The porous nature of the PAMAM/CNT LbL film allowed the electrolyte access to the bottom of the electrode, generating a homogenous Co electrodeposit. In addition, the nanostructure based on Co-modified PAMAM/CNT LbL exhibited high electrocatalytic activity for H(2)O(2) reduction when compared to the Co-free PAMAM/CNT LbL film, which demonstrates the suitability of the system studied for biosensing. (C) 2011 The Electrochemical Society. [DOI: 10.1149/1.3602200] All rights reserved.

Sisal, sugarcane bagasse and microcrystalline celluloses: Influence of the composition of the solvent system N,N-dimethylacetamide/lithium chloride on the solubility and acetylation of these polysaccharides

The present work describes an investigation concerning the acetylation of celluloses extracted from short-life-cycle plant sources (i.e. sugarcane bagasse and sisal fiber) as well as microcrystalline cellulose. The acetylation was carried out under homogeneous conditions using the solvent system N,N-dimethylacetamide/lithium chloride. The celluloses were characterized, and the characterizations included an evaluation of the amount of hemicellulose present in the materials obtained from lignocellulosics sources (sugarcane and sisal). The amount of LiCl was varied and its influence on the degree of acetate substitution was analyzed. It was found that the solvent system composition and the nature of the cellulose influenced both the state of chain dissolution and the product characteristics. The obtained results demonstrated the importance of developing specific studies on the dissolution process as well as on the derivatization of celluloses from various sources.

Exploitation of a single interface flow system for on-line aqueous biphasic extraction

The exploitation of aqueous biphasic extraction is proposed for the first time in flow analysis This extraction strategy stands out for being environmentally attractive since it is based in the utilization of two immiscible phases that are intrinsically aqueous The organic solvents of the traditional liquid-liquid extractions ale no longer used, being replaced by non-toxic, non-flammable and non-volatile ones. A single interface flow analysis (SIFA) system was implemented to carry out the extraction process due to its favourable operational characteristics that include the high automation level and simplicity of operation, the establishment of a dynamic interface where the mass transfer occurred between the two immiscible aqueous phases, and the versatile control over the extraction process namely the extraction time The application selected to demonstrate the feasibility of SIFA to perform this aqueous biphasic extraction was the pre-concentration of lead. After extraction, lead reacted with 8-hydroxyquinoline-5-sulfonic acid and the resulting product was determined by a fluorimetric detector included in the flow manifold. Therefore, the SIFA single interface was used both as extraction (enrichment) and reaction interface. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Single reaction interface flow system for chemiluminescent monitoring of mannitol based on its hydroxyl radical scavenger activity

A single reaction interface flow analysis (SIFA) system for the monitoring of mannitol in pharmaceutical formulations and human urine is presented. The developed approach takes advantage of the mannitol scavenger aptitude to inhibit the chemiluminescent reaction between luminol and myoglobin in the absence of H(2)O(2). The SIFA system facilitated the fully automation of the developed methodology, allowing the in-line reproducible handling of chemical species with a very short lifetime as is the case of the hydroxyl radical generated in the abovementioned luminol/myoglobin reaction. The proposed methodology allowed the determination of mannitol concentrations between 25 mmol L(-1) and 1 mol L(-1), with good precision (R.S.D. < 4.7%, n = 3) and a sampling frequency of about 60 h(-1). The procedure was applied to the determination of mannitol in pharmaceuticals and in human urine samples Without any pretreatment process. The results obtained for pharmaceutical formulations were statistically comparable to those provided by the reference method (R.D. < 4.6%); recoveries values obtained in the analysis of spiked urine samples (between 94.9 and 105.3% of the added amount) were also satisfactory. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-objective analysis of impacts of distributed generation placement on the operational characteristics of networks for distribution system planning

Recent advances in energy technology generation and new directions in electricity regulation have made distributed generation (DG) more widespread, with consequent significant impacts on the operational characteristics of distribution networks. For this reason, new methods for identifying such impacts are needed, together with research and development of new tools and resources to maintain and facilitate continued expansion towards DG. This paper presents a study aimed at determining appropriate DG sites for distribution systems. The main considerations which determine DG sites are also presented, together with an account of the advantages gained from correct DG placement. The paper intends to define some quantitative and qualitative parameters evaluated by Digsilent (R), GARP3 (R) and DSA-GD software. A multi-objective approach based on the Bellman-Zadeh algorithm and fuzzy logic is used to determine appropriate DG sites. The study also aims to find acceptable DG locations both for distribution system feeders, as well as for nodes inside a given feeder. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MODELING OF AN INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR WINE TRACEABILITY BASED ON A SERVICE ORIENTED ARCHITECTURE

The purpose is to present a scientific research that led to the modeling of an information system which aimed at the maintenance of traceability data in the Brazilian wine industry, according to the principles of a service-oriented architecture (SOA). Since 2005, traceability data maintenance is an obligation for all producers that intend to export to any European Union country. Also, final customers, including the Brazilian ones, have been asking for information about food products. A solution that collectively contemplated the industry was sought in order to permit that producer consortiums of associations could share the costs and benefits of such a solution. Following an extensive bibliographic review, a series of interviews conducted with Brazilian researchers and wine producers in Bento Goncalves - RS, Brazil, elucidated many aspects associated with the wine production process. Information technology issues related to the theme were also researched. The software was modeled with the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and uses web services for data exchange. A model for the wine production process was also proposed. A functional prototype showed that the adopted model is able to fulfill the demands of wine producers. The good results obtained lead us to consider the use of this model in other domains.