Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - II. Testing simulation capabilities of wheat growth

To simulate cropping systems, crop models must not only give reliable predictions of yield across a wide range of environmental conditions, they must also quantify water and nutrient use well, so that the status of the soil at maturity is a good representation of the starting conditions for the next cropping sequence. To assess the suitability for this task a range of crop models, currently used in Australia, were tested. The models differed in their design objectives, complexity and structure and were (i) tested on diverse, independent data sets from a wide range of environments and (ii) model components were further evaluated with one detailed data set from a semi-arid environment. All models were coded into the cropping systems shell APSIM, which provides a common soil water and nitrogen balance. Crop development was input, thus differences between simulations were caused entirely by difference in simulating crop growth. Under nitrogen non-limiting conditions between 73 and 85% of the observed kernel yield variation across environments was explained by the models. This ranged from 51 to 77% under varying nitrogen supply. Water and nitrogen effects on leaf area index were predicted poorly by all models resulting in erroneous predictions of dry matter accumulation and water use. When measured light interception was used as input, most models improved in their prediction of dry matter and yield. This test highlighted a range of compensating errors in all modelling approaches. Time course and final amount of water extraction was simulated well by two models, while others left up to 25% of potentially available soil water in the profile. Kernel nitrogen percentage was predicted poorly by all models due to its sensitivity to small dry matter changes. Yield and dry matter could be estimated adequately for a range of environmental conditions using the general concepts of radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. However, leaf area and kernel nitrogen dynamics need to be improved to achieve better estimates of water and nitrogen use if such models are to be use to evaluate cropping systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - III. The integrated wheat model (I_WHEAT)

Previous work has identified several short-comings in the ability of four spring wheat and one barley model to simulate crop processes and resource utilization. This can have important implications when such models are used within systems models where final soil water and nitrogen conditions of one crop define the starting conditions of the following crop. In an attempt to overcome these limitations and to reconcile a range of modelling approaches, existing model components that worked demonstrably well were combined with new components for aspects where existing capabilities were inadequate. This resulted in the Integrated Wheat Model (I_WHEAT), which was developed as a module of the cropping systems model APSIM. To increase predictive capability of the model, process detail was reduced, where possible, by replacing groups of processes with conservative, biologically meaningful parameters. I_WHEAT does not contain a soil water or soil nitrogen balance. These are present as other modules of APSIM. In I_WHEAT, yield is simulated using a linear increase in harvest index whereby nitrogen or water limitations can lead to early termination of grainfilling and hence cessation of harvest index increase. Dry matter increase is calculated either from the amount of intercepted radiation and radiation conversion efficiency or from the amount of water transpired and transpiration efficiency, depending on the most limiting resource. Leaf area and tiller formation are calculated from thermal time and a cultivar specific phyllochron interval. Nitrogen limitation first reduces leaf area and then affects radiation conversion efficiency as it becomes more severe. Water or nitrogen limitations result in reduced leaf expansion, accelerated leaf senescence or tiller death. This reduces the radiation load on the crop canopy (i.e. demand for water) and can make nitrogen available for translocation to other organs. Sensitive feedbacks between light interception and dry matter accumulation are avoided by having environmental effects acting directly on leaf area development, rather than via biomass production. This makes the model more stable across environments without losing the interactions between the different external influences. When comparing model output with models tested previously using data from a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, yield and biomass predictions were equal to the best of those models, but improvements could be demonstrated for simulating leaf area dynamics in response to water and nitrogen supply, kernel nitrogen content, and total water and nitrogen use. I_WHEAT does not require calibration for any of the environments tested. Further model improvement should concentrate on improving phenology simulations, a more thorough derivation of coefficients to describe leaf area development and a better quantification of some processes related to nitrogen dynamics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part II: Simulation of alternative farming methods

A version of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) capable of simulating the key agronomic aspects of intercropping maize between legume shrub hedgerows was described and parameterised in the first paper of this series (Nelson et al., this issue). In this paper, APSIM is used to simulate maize yields and soil erosion from traditional open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. Two variants of open-field farming were simulated using APSIM, continuous and fallow, for comparison with intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows. Continuous open-field maize farming was predicted to be unsustainable in the long term, while fallow open-field farming was predicted to slow productivity decline by spreading the effect of erosion over a larger cropping area. Hedgerow intercropping was predicted to reduce erosion by maintaining soil surface cover during periods of intense rainfall, contributing to sustainable production of maize in the long term. In the third paper in this series, Nelson et al. (this issue) use cost-benefit analysis to compare the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to traditional open-field farming of maize in relatively inaccessible upland areas. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part III: Economic analysis of alternative farming methods

Two previous papers in this series (Nelson et al., this issue) described the use of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to simulate the effect of erosion on maize yields from open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. In this paper, maize yields simulated with APSIM are used to compare the economic viability of intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows with that of continuous and fallow open-field farming of maize. The analysis focuses on the economic incentives of upland farmers to adopt hedgerow intercropping, discussing farmers' planning horizons, access to credit and security of land tenure, as well as maize pricing in the Philippines. Insecure land tenure has limited the planning horizons of upland farmers, and high establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to continuous and fallow open-field farming in the short term, In the long term, high discount rates and share-tenancy arrangements in which landlords do not contribute to establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to fallow open-field farming, (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite element analysis of flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems

We use theoretical and numerical methods to investigate the general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems respectively. Analytical solutions have been rigorously derived for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function and excess pore-fluid pressure near a circular lens in a hydrodynamic system. These analytical solutions provide not only a better understanding of the physics behind the problem, but also a valuable benchmark solution for validating any numerical method. Since a geological lens is surrounded by a medium of large extent in nature and the finite element method is efficient at modelling only media of finite size, the determination of the size of the computational domain of a finite element model, which is often overlooked by numerical analysts, is very important in order to ensure both the efficiency of the method and the accuracy of the numerical solution obtained. To highlight this issue, we use the derived analytical solutions to deduce a rigorous mathematical formula for designing the computational domain size of a finite element model. The proposed mathematical formula has indicated that, no matter how fine the mesh or how high the order of elements, the desired accuracy of a finite element solution for pore-fluid flow near a geological lens cannot be achieved unless the size of the finite element model is determined appropriately. Once the finite element computational model has been appropriately designed and validated in a hydrodynamic system, it is used to examine general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrothermal systems. Some interesting conclusions on the behaviour of geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems have been reached through the analytical and numerical analyses carried out in this paper.

Finite element modelling of reactive mass transport problems in fluid-saturated porous media

We use the finite element method to solve reactive mass transport problems in fluid-saturated porous media. In particular, we discuss the mathematical expression of the chemical reaction terms involved in the mass transport equations for an isothermal, non-equilibrium chemical reaction. It has turned out that the Arrhenius law in chemistry is a good mathematical expression for such non-equilibrium chemical reactions especially from the computational point of view. Using the finite element method and the Arrhenius law, we investigate the distributions of PH (i.e. the concentration of H+) and the relevant reactive species in a groundwater system. Although the main focus of this study is on the contaminant transport problems in groundwater systems, the related numerical techniques and principles are equally applicable to the orebody formation problems in the geosciences. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Finite element modelling of three-dimensional convection problems in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below

We use the finite element method to model three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media when they are heated from below. In particular, we employ the particle-tracking technique to mimic the trajectories of particles in three-dimensional fluid flow problems. The related numerical results demonstrated that: (1) The progressive asymptotic approach procedure, which was previously developed for the finite element modelling of two-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow problems, is equally applicable to the finite element modelling of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below. (2) The perturbation of gravity at different planes has a significant effect on the pattern of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow and therefore, may influence the pattern of orebody formation and mineralization in three-dimensional hydrothermal systems. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

BeachWin: modelling groundwater effects on swash sediment transport and beach profile changes

Field and laboratory observations have shown that a relatively low beach groundwater table enhances beach accretion. These observations have led to the beach dewatering technique (artificially lowering the beach water table) for combating beach erosion. Here we present a process-based numerical model that simulates the interacting wave motion on the beach. coastal groundwater flow, swash sediment transport and beach profile changes. Results of model simulations demonstrate that the model replicates accretionary effects of a low beach water table on beach profile changes and has the potential to become a tool for assessing the effectiveness of beach dewatering systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer simulations of coupled problems in geological and geochemical systems

The finite element method is used to simulate coupled problems, which describe the related physical and chemical processes of ore body formation and mineralization, in geological and geochemical systems. The main purpose of this paper is to illustrate some simulation results for different types of modelling problems in pore-fluid saturated rock masses. The aims of the simulation results presented in this paper are: (1) getting a better understanding of the processes and mechanisms of ore body formation and mineralization in the upper crust of the Earth; (2) demonstrating the usefulness and applicability of the finite element method in dealing with a wide range of coupled problems in geological and geochemical systems; (3) qualitatively establishing a set of showcase problems, against which any numerical method and computer package can be reasonably validated. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Finite element modelling of reactive fluids mixing and mineralization in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins

We present the finite element simulations of reactive mineral carrying fluids mixing and mineralization in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins. In particular we explore the mixing of reactive sulfide and sulfate fluids and the relevant patterns of mineralization for Load, zinc and iron minerals in the regime of temperature-gradient-driven convective flow. Since the mineralization and ore body formation may last quite a long period of time in a hydrothermal basin, it is commonly assumed that, in the geochemistry, the solutions of minerals are in an equilibrium state or near an equilibrium state. Therefore, the mineralization rate of a particular kind of mineral can be expressed as the product of the pore-fluid velocity and the equilibrium concentration of this particular kind of mineral Using the present mineralization rate of a mineral, the potential of the modern mineralization theory is illustrated by means of finite element studies related to reactive mineral-carrying fluids mixing problems in materially homogeneous and inhomogeneous porous rock basins.

Spatial data mining for enhanced soil map modelling

The principle of using induction rules based on spatial environmental data to model a soil map has previously been demonstrated Whilst the general pattern of classes of large spatial extent and those with close association with geology were delineated small classes and the detailed spatial pattern of the map were less well rendered Here we examine several strategies to improve the quality of the soil map models generated by rule induction Terrain attributes that are better suited to landscape description at a resolution of 250 m are introduced as predictors of soil type A map sampling strategy is developed Classification error is reduced by using boosting rather than cross validation to improve the model Further the benefit of incorporating the local spatial context for each environmental variable into the rule induction is examined The best model was achieved by sampling in proportion to the spatial extent of the mapped classes boosting the decision trees and using spatial contextual information extracted from the environmental variables.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical modelling of chemical effects of magma solidification problems in porous rocks

The solidification of intruded magma in porous rocks can result in the following two consequences: (1) the heat release due to the solidification of the interface between the rock and intruded magma and (2) the mass release of the volatile fluids in the region where the intruded magma is solidified into the rock. Traditionally, the intruded magma solidification problem is treated as a moving interface (i.e. the solidification interface between the rock and intruded magma) problem to consider these consequences in conventional numerical methods. This paper presents an alternative new approach to simulate thermal and chemical consequences/effects of magma intrusion in geological systems, which are composed of porous rocks. In the proposed new approach and algorithm, the original magma solidification problem with a moving boundary between the rock and intruded magma is transformed into a new problem without the moving boundary but with the proposed mass source and physically equivalent heat source. The major advantage in using the proposed equivalent algorithm is that a fixed mesh of finite elements with a variable integration time-step can be employed to simulate the consequences and effects of the intruded magma solidification using the conventional finite element method. The correctness and usefulness of the proposed equivalent algorithm have been demonstrated by a benchmark magma solidification problem. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Anisotropy-based performance analysis of linear discrete time invariant control systems

The anisotropic norm of a linear discrete-time-invariant system measures system output sensitivity to stationary Gaussian input disturbances of bounded mean anisotropy. Mean anisotropy characterizes the degree of predictability (or colouredness) and spatial non-roundness of the noise. The anisotropic norm falls between the H-2 and H-infinity norms and accommodates their loss of performance when the probability structure of input disturbances is not exactly known. This paper develops a method for numerical computation of the anisotropic norm which involves linked Riccati and Lyapunov equations and an associated special type equation.