Estimating cumulative exposure of wildlife to non-lethal disturbance using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

Impact assessments often focus on short-term behavioral responses of animals to human disturbance. However, the cumulative effects caused by repeated behavioral disruptions are of management concern because these effects have the potential to influence individuals' survival and reproduction. We need to estimate individual exposure rates to disturbance to determine cumulative effects. We present a new approach to estimate the spatial exposure of minke whales to whalewatching boats in Faxaflõi Bay, Iceland. We used recent advances in spatially explicit capture-recapture modeling to estimate the probability that whales would encounter a disturbance (i.e., whalewatching boat). We obtained spatially explicit individual encounter histories of individually identifiable animals using photo-identification. We divided the study area into 1-km2 grid cells and considered each cell a spatially distinct sampling unit. We used capture history of individuals to model and estimate spatial encounter probabilities of individual minke whales across the study area, accounting for heterogeneity in sampling effort. We inferred the exposure of individual minke whales to whalewatching vessels throughout the feeding season by estimating individual whale encounters with vessels using the whale encounter probabilities and spatially explicit whalewatching intensity in the same area, obtained from recorded whalewatching vessel tracks. We then estimated the cumulative time whales spent with whalewatching boats to assess the biological significance of whalewatching disturbances. The estimated exposure levels to boats varied considerably between individuals because of both temporal and spatial variations in the activity centers of whales and the whalewatching intensity in the area. However, although some whales were repeatedly exposed to whalewatching boats throughout the feeding season, the estimated cumulative time they spent with boats was very low. Although whalewatching boat interactions caused feeding disruptions for the whales, the estimated low cumulative exposure indicated that the whalewatching industry in its current state likely is not having any long-term negative effects on vital rates.

Childhood cancer in Argentina: survival 2000–2007

 Introduction: Information on the epidemiology of childhood cancer in Latin America is limited. The Argentinean Oncopaediatric Registry (ROHA) is a population-based registry active since 2000. This paper describes the 3-year survival experience of children diagnosed with cancer in Argentina during 2000–2007 by major morphological subgroup, age, sex, and geographical region of residence.
Methods: Newly diagnosed paediatric cancer cases are registered in ROHA (estimated coverage is 93% of the country’s cases). Three-year overall survival was estimated using Kaplan–Meier methods. Univariate Cox models were used to compare subgroup survival.
Results: Between 2000 and 2007, a total of 10,181 new cancer diagnoses in children aged 0–14 years were reported to the registry. Three-year overall survival (95%CI) for all cancers was 61.7% (60.7; 62.7). Specific survival for the most frequent morphological types was: leukaemias 63.3% (61.6; 64.9), lymphomas and related neoplasms 75.3% (72.7; 77.7), brain neoplasms 46.3% (43.9; 48.7), soft-tissue sarcomas 52.3% (48.0; 56.5), neuroblastomas 49.6% (44.6; 54.3), renal tumours 76.7% (72.2; 80.6), and malignant bone tumours 47.2% (42.3; 51.9). Overall survival was associated with age but not sex and varied by geographical region. Compared to other regions, patients who resided in the capital city had a significantly higher survival: 69.6% (65.8; 73.0) versus 63.5% (59.4; 67.4) in Patagonia, 63.2% (61.9; 64.5) in the central region, 58.0% (54.2; 61.7) in Cuyo, 55.6% (52.5; 58.6) in the north-east, and 55.4% (52.4; 58.2) in the north-west (all P values <0.005).
Conclusions: Of children diagnosed with cancer in Argentina, 62% survived at least 3 years after diagnosis. Even though this figure is lower than that reported for more developed countries, survival patterns by diagnosis, age and sex were quite similar. Survival was lower in the two northern regions, which are areas with higher poverty levels.

Exogenous expectations on endogenous uncertainty: recursive equilibrium and survival

This paper analyses general equilibrium models with finite heterogeneous agents having exogenous expectations on endogenous uncertainty. It is shown that there exists a recursive equilibrium with the state space consisting of the past aggregate portfolio distribution and the current state of the nature and that it implements the sequential equilibrium. We establish conditions under which the recursive equilibrium is continuous. Moreover, we use the continuous recursive relation of the aggregate variables to prove that if the economy has two types of agents, the one who commits persistent mistakes on the expectation rules of the future endogenous variables is driven out of the market by the others with correct anticipations of the variables, that is, the rational expectations agents.

Modeling grouped survival data with time-dependent covariates

In this article, proportional hazards and logistic models for grouped survival data were extended to incorporate time-dependent covariates. The extension was motivated by a forestry experiment designed to compare five different water stresses in Eucalyptus grandis seedlings. The response was the seedling lifetime. The data set was grouped since there were just three occasions in which the seedlings was visited by the researcher. In each of these occasions also the shoot height was measured and therefore it is a time-dependent covariate. Both extended models were used in this example, and the results were very similar.

Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval-censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval-censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can befitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum. The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.

A Generalized Log-Normal Model for Grouped Survival Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

FTY720 in combination with cyclosporine - an analysis of skin allograft survival and renal function

Acute and chronic nephrotoxicity caused by CsA Continuous administration impair kidney allograft survival. Several clinical and experimental protocols have shown benefits to the kidney after decreasing CsA dose, withdrawing the drug or delaying its introduction after transplantation.FTY720 is a new Compound that has immunosuppressive characteristics and increase allograft survival in animal models without causing the side effects of calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs). FTY720 described mechanism of action that consists to alter the lymphocyte migration pattern without impairment of the immune system response against pathogens.In our mice model, FTY720 administered alone or in combination with CsA during 21 days increased skin allograft survival in a fully mismatched strain combination and did not cause significant changes in renal function. Moreover, renal structure was normal in all groups suggesting that at low doses (10 mg/kg/day) CsA can be associated during short-term period to other immunosuppressive drugs, i.e. FTY720 without affecting the kidney.Combination of immunosuppressive compounds with FTY720 and/or delayed introduction of low cyclosporine dose Could prevent graft rejection and avoid nephrotoxicity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Additive genetic relationship of longevity with fertility and production traits in Nellore cattle based on bivariate models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Anemia at one year is an independent risk factor of graft survival

Background Post-transplant anemia is multifactorial and highly prevalent. Some studies have associated anemia with mortality and graft failure. The purpose of this study was to assess whether the presence of anemia at 1 year is an independent risk factor of mortality and graft survival. Methods All patients transplanted at a single center who survived at least 1 year after transplantation and showed no graft loss (n = 214) were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected at baseline and at 1 year. Patients were divided into two groups (anemic and nonanemic) based on the presence of anemia (hemoglobin<130 g/l in men and 120 g/l in women). Results Baseline characteristics such as age, gender, type of donor, CKD etiology, rejection, andmismatches were similar in both groups. Creatinine clearance was similar in both anemic and nonanemic groups (69.32 ± 29.8 × 75.69 ± 30.5 ml/mim; P = 0.17). A Kaplan- Meier plot showed significantly poorer death-censored graft survival in the anemic group, P = 0.003. Multivariate analysis revealed that anemic patients had a hazard ratio for the graft loss of 3.85 (95% CI: 1.49-9.96; P = 0.005). Conclusions In this study, anemia at 1 year was independently associated with death-censored graft survival and anemic patients were 3.8-fold more likely to lose the graft. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, B.V.

One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Survival rate, load to fracture, and finite element analysis of incisors and canines restored with ceramic veneers having varied preparation design

Purpose: To evaluate the survival rate, success rate, load to fracture, and finite element analysis (FEA) of maxillary central incisors and canines restored using ceramic veneers and varying preparation designs.Methods and Materials: Thirty human maxillary central incisors and 30 canines were allocated to the following four groups (n=15) based on the preparation design and type of tooth: Gr1 = central incisor with a conservative preparation; Gr2 = central incisor with a conventional preparation with palatal chamfer; Gr3 = canine with a conservative preparation; Gr4 = canine with a conventional preparation with palatal chamfer. Ceramic veneers (lithium disilicate) were fabricated and adhesively cemented (Variolink Veneer). The specimens were subjected to 4 x 106 mechanical cycles and evaluated at every 500,000 cycles to detect failures. Specimens that survived were subjected to a load to fracture test. Bidimensional models were modeled (Rhinoceros 4.0) and evaluated (MSC.Patrans 2005r2 and MSC.Marc 2005r2) on the basis of their maximum principal stress (MPS) values. Survival rate values were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier test (alpha = 0.05) and load to fracture values were analyzed using the Student t-test (alpha = 0.05).Results: All groups showed 100% survival rates. The Student t-test did not show any difference between the groups for load to fracture. FEA showed higher MPS values in the specimens restored using veneers with conventional preparation design with palatal chamfer.Conclusion: Preparation design did not affect the fracture load of canines and central incisors, but the veneers with conventional preparation design with palatal chamfer exhibited a tendency to generate higher MPS values.

Impact of inulin and okara on Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5 and Bifidobacterium animalis Bb-12 viability in a fermented soy product and probiotic survival under in vitro simulated gastrointestinal conditions

The effect of inulin and/or okara flour on Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5 and Bifidobacterium animalis Bb-12 viability in a fermented soy product (FSP) and on probiotic survival under in vitro simulated gastrointestinal conditions were investigated throughout 28 days of storage at 4 °C. Employing a 22 design, four FSP trials were produced from soymilk fermented with ABT-4 culture (La-5, Bb-12, and Streptococcus thermophilus): FSP (control); FSP-I (with inulin, 3 g/100 mL of soymilk); FSP-O (with okara, 5 g/100 mL); FSP-IO (with inulin + okara, ratio 3:5 g/100 mL). Probiotic viabilities ranged from 8 to 9 log cfu/g during the 28 days of storage, and inulin and/or okara flour did not affect the viability of La-5 and Bb-12. Bb-12 resistance to the artificial gastrointestinal juices was higher than for La-5, since the Bb-12 and La-5 populations decreased approximately 0.6 log cfu/g and 3.8 log cfu/g, respectively, throughout storage period. Even though the protective effect of inulin and/or okara flour on probiotic microorganisms was not significant, when compared to a fresh culture, the FSP matrix improved Bb-12 survival on day 1 of storage and may be considered a good vehicle for Bb-12 and could play an important role in probiotic protection against gastrointestinal juices. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

THE LOG-BURR XII REGRESSION MODEL FOR GROUPED SURVIVAL DATA

The log-Burr XII regression model for grouped survival data is evaluated in the presence of many ties. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, where the times are grouped in k intervals, and we fit discrete lifetime regression models to the data. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed model, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, so-called global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to these measures, the total local influence and influential estimates are also used. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the proposed model for grouped survival. A real data set is analyzed using a regression model for grouped data.

A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.