Volatility changes in drachma exchange rates

In January 2001 Greece joined the eurozone. The aim of this article is to examine whether an intention to join the eurozone had any impact on exchange rate volatility. We apply the Iterated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) to a set of Greek drachma exchange rate changes. We find evidence to suggest that the unconditional volatility of the drachma exchange rate against the dollar, British pound, yen, German mark and ECU/Euro was nonstationary, exhibiting a large number of volatility changes prior to European Monetary Union (EMU) membership. We then use a news archive service to identify the events that might have caused exchange rate volatility to shift. We find that devaluation of the drachma increased exchange rate volatility but ERM membership and a commitment to joining the eurozone led to lower volatility. Our findings therefore suggest that a strong commitment to join the eurozone may be sufficient to reduce some exchange rate volatility which has implications for countries intending to join the eurozone in the future.

Regional policy and spillovers from FDI in the UK

This paper tests one of the fundamental assumptions of regional policy makers over the last 20 years. Western governments, in seeking to attract internationally mobile capital have spent significant sums of public money on subsidies and grants. This is justified on the basis that the social returns to FDI are significantly greater than the private returns, due to productivity or technology spillovers from inward investors to domestic industry. However, this paper generates some estimates of these spillovers for both assisted areas and non-assisted areas in the UK, and questions the size of these social returns, arguing that productivity spillovers do not occur in regions where significant inward investment incentives are available.

Minimum description length, regularisation and multi-modal data

Conventional feed forward Neural Networks have used the sum-of-squares cost function for training. A new cost function is presented here with a description length interpretation based on Rissanen's Minimum Description Length principle. It is a heuristic that has a rough interpretation as the number of data points fit by the model. Not concerned with finding optimal descriptions, the cost function prefers to form minimum descriptions in a naive way for computational convenience. The cost function is called the Naive Description Length cost function. Finding minimum description models will be shown to be closely related to the identification of clusters in the data. As a consequence the minimum of this cost function approximates the most probable mode of the data rather than the sum-of-squares cost function that approximates the mean. The new cost function is shown to provide information about the structure of the data. This is done by inspecting the dependence of the error to the amount of regularisation. This structure provides a method of selecting regularisation parameters as an alternative or supplement to Bayesian methods. The new cost function is tested on a number of multi-valued problems such as a simple inverse kinematics problem. It is also tested on a number of classification and regression problems. The mode-seeking property of this cost function is shown to improve prediction in time series problems. Description length principles are used in a similar fashion to derive a regulariser to control network complexity.

Contrast sensitivity for complex and random gratings

This thesis studied the effect of (i) the number of grating components and (ii) parameter randomisation on root-mean-square (r.m.s.) contrast sensitivity and spatial integration. The effectiveness of spatial integration without external spatial noise depended on the number of equally spaced orientation components in the sum of gratings. The critical area marking the saturation of spatial integration was found to decrease when the number of components increased from 1 to 5-6 but increased again at 8-16 components. The critical area behaved similarly as a function of the number of grating components when stimuli consisted of 3, 6 or 16 components with different orientations and/or phases embedded in spatial noise. Spatial integration seemed to depend on the global Fourier structure of the stimulus. Spatial integration was similar for sums of two vertical cosine or sine gratings with various Michelson contrasts in noise. The critical area for a grating sum was found to be a sum of logarithmic critical areas for the component gratings weighted by their relative Michelson contrasts. The human visual system was modelled as a simple image processor where the visual stimuli is first low-pass filtered by the optical modulation transfer function of the human eye and secondly high-pass filtered, up to the spatial cut-off frequency determined by the lowest neural sampling density, by the neural modulation transfer function of the visual pathways. The internal noise is then added before signal interpretation occurs in the brain. The detection is mediated by a local spatially windowed matched filter. The model was extended to include complex stimuli and its applicability to the data was found to be successful. The shape of spatial integration function was similar for non-randomised and randomised simple and complex gratings. However, orientation and/or phase randomised reduced r.m.s contrast sensitivity by a factor of 2. The effect of parameter randomisation on spatial integration was modelled under the assumption that human observers change the observer strategy from cross-correlation (i.e., a matched filter) to auto-correlation detection when uncertainty is introduced to the task. The model described the data accurately.

Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets

The aim of this paper is to examine the short term dynamics of foreign exchange rate spreads. Using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) we show that most of the variation in the spread comes from the long run dependencies between past and future spreads rather than being caused by changes in inventory, adverse selection, cost of carry or order processing costs. We apply the Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) to discover how often spread volatility changes. We find that spread volatility shifts are relatively uncommon and shifts in one currency spread tend not to spillover to other currency spreads. © 2013.

Solving Differential Equations by Parallel Laplace Method with Assured Accuracy

The paper has been presented at the 12th International Conference on Applications of Computer Algebra, Varna, Bulgaria, June, 2006

The General Differential Operators Generated by a Quasi-Differential Expressions with their Interior Singular Points

The general ordinary quasi-differential expression M of n-th order with complex coefficients and its formal adjoint M + are considered over a regoin (a, b) on the real line, −∞ ≤ a < b ≤ ∞, on which the operator may have a finite number of singular points. By considering M over various subintervals on which singularities occur only at the ends, restrictions of the maximal operator generated by M in L2|w (a, b) which are regularly solvable with respect to the minimal operators T0 (M ) and T0 (M + ). In addition to direct sums of regularly solvable operators defined on the separate subintervals, there are other regularly solvable restrications of the maximal operator which involve linking the various intervals together in interface like style.

Epiconvergence D'une Suite De Sommes En Niveaux De Fonctions Convexes

We consider the problem of minimizing the max of two convex functions from both approximation and sensitivity point of view.This lead up to study the epiconvergence of a sequence of level sums of convex functions and the related dual problems.

Stochastic Optimization in Robust Statistic

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J05, 62G35

A Kullback-Leibler relatív entrópia függvény alkalmazása páros összehasonlítás mátrix egy prioritásvektora meghatározására (Applying the Kullback-Leibler relative entropy function for determining priorities for the pairwise comparison matrix)

A dolgozatban a döntéselméletben fontos szerepet játszó páros összehasonlítás mátrix prioritásvektorának meghatározására új megközelítést alkalmazunk. Az A páros összehasonlítás mátrix és a prioritásvektor által definiált B konzisztens mátrix közötti eltérést a Kullback-Leibler relatív entrópia-függvény segítségével mérjük. Ezen eltérés minimalizálása teljesen kitöltött mátrix esetében konvex programozási feladathoz vezet, nem teljesen kitöltött mátrix esetében pedig egy fixpont problémához. Az eltérésfüggvényt minimalizáló prioritásvektor egyben azzal a tulajdonsággal is rendelkezik, hogy az A mátrix elemeinek összege és a B mátrix elemeinek összege közötti különbség éppen az eltérésfüggvény minimumának az n-szerese, ahol n a feladat mérete. Így az eltérésfüggvény minimumának értéke két szempontból is lehet alkalmas az A mátrix inkonzisztenciájának a mérésére. _____ In this paper we apply a new approach for determining a priority vector for the pairwise comparison matrix which plays an important role in Decision Theory. The divergence between the pairwise comparison matrix A and the consistent matrix B defined by the priority vector is measured with the help of the Kullback-Leibler relative entropy function. The minimization of this divergence leads to a convex program in case of a complete matrix, leads to a fixed-point problem in case of an incomplete matrix. The priority vector minimizing the divergence also has the property that the difference of the sums of elements of the matrix A and the matrix B is n times the minimum of the divergence function where n is the dimension of the problem. Thus we developed two reasons for considering the value of the minimum of the divergence as a measure of inconsistency of the matrix A.

Uma reflexão sobre a vitalidade urbana das praças de Natal/RN

Squares are urban public open spaces whose use combines a number of elements that can provide their vitality, some of which can be enhanced through strategic projects. Given this general framework, the starting question which triggered this thesis: Would the elements that the literature indicate influence the vitality of the squares be perceived by their users? The hypothesis put forward was that users give priority to elements directly involved in the appropriation of space, especially the furniture and existing equipment, levels of shade and security. The focus of empirical research were public squares located in the city of Natal-RN, with the aim to identify elements that contribute to the vitality of the public squares in the city, through the relationship between spatial morphology and environmental awareness. The methodology adopted was a Case Study conducted by multimethod, using the following procedures: morphological analysis based on literature and information at three levels (radius of influence, 500m; immediate surroundings; environment itself); systematic observation (behavioral mapping centred in the location); and semi-structured interviews with users. The results showed that the public spaces more integrated in the urban areas have greater potential for use, however, its effective use depends on the perception of individuals, so that its vitality is mainly due to items identified by users as central to their continued presence in the environment because they directly affect their wellbeing and the image of the location. So some elements, notably furniture and urban equipment, are more easily detected than others, revealing that they are essential to the perception of users, so that their presence, quality and location appeared to have greater impact on use. In addition, the amount of shade and security showed as items that ensure that individuals experience public spaces more often, since the (likely) users are aware of the conservation actions or abandonment that take place on these sites, revealing itself to be potentially involved in the rescue of these spaces. Overall, the general hypothesis is only partially proven because in many situations, the vitality of squares appeared not only to be related to the elements investigated, but also additional aspects - environmental, nature, economic, social and cultural - which should also be studied.

Benthic foraminifera in eastern equatorial Indian Ocean surface sediments

Study of Recent abyssal benthic foraminifera from core-top samples in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean has identified distinctive faunas whose distribution patterns reflect the major hydrographic features of the region. Above 3800 m, Indian Deep Water (IDW) is characterized by a diverse and evenly-distributed biofacies to which Globocassidulina subglobosa, Pyrgo spp., Uvigerina peregrina, and Eggerella bradyi are the major contributors. Nuttalides umbonifera and Epistominella exigua are associated with Indian Bottom Water (IBW) below 3800 m. Within the IBW fauna, N. umbonifera and E. exigua are characteristic of two biofacies with independent distribution patterns. Nuttalides umbonifera systematically increases in abundance with increasing water depth. The E. exigua biofacies reaches its greatest abundance in sediments on the eastern flank of the Ninetyeast Ridge and in the Wharton-Cocos Basin. The hydrographic transition between IDW and IBW coincides with the level of transition from waters supersaturated to waters undersaturated with respect to calcite and with the depth of the lysocline. Carbonate saturation levels, possibly combined with the effects of selective dissolution on the benthic foraminiferal populations, best explain the change in faunas across the IDW/IBW boundary and the bathymetric distribution pattern of N. umbonifera. The distribution of the E. exigua fauna cannot be explained with this model. Epistominella exigua is associated with the colder, more oxygenated IBW of the Wharton-Cocos Basin. The distribution of this biofacies on the eastern flank of the Ninetyeast Ridge agrees well with the calculated bathymetric position of the northward flowing deep boundary current which aerates the eastern basins of the Indian Ocean.

(Table 1) Maximal daily erythemally effective UVB radiation and total ozone content at Vernadsky Station, Antarctica

One of the research programs carried out within the Czech-Ukrainian scientific co-operation is the monitoring of global solar and ultraviolet radiation at the Vernadsky Station (formerly the British Faraday Station), Antarctica. Radiation measurements have been made since 2002. Recently, a special attention is devoted to the measurements of the erythemally effective UVB radiation using a broadband Robertson Berger 501 UV-Biometer (Solar Light Co. Inc., USA). This paper brings some results from modelling the daily sums of erythemally effective UVB radiation intensity in relation to the total ozone content (TOC) in atmosphere and surface intensity of the global solar radiation. Differences between the satellite- and ground-based measurements of the TOC at the Vernadsky Station are taken into consideration. The modelled erythemally effective UVB radiation differed slightly depending on the seasons and sources of the TOC. The model relative prediction error for ground- and satellite-based measurements varied between 9.5% and 9.6% in the period of 2002-2003, while it ranged from 7.4% to 8.8% in the period of 2003-2004.

The Online Romance Scam: A Serious Cybercrime

The Online Romance Scam is a relatively new form of fraud that became apparent in about 2008. In this crime, criminals pretend to initiate a relationship through online dating sites then defraud their victims of large sums of money. This paper presents some descriptive statistics about knowledge and victimization of the online dating romance scam in Great Britain. Our study found that despite its newness, an estimated 230,000 British citizens may have fallen victim to this crime. We conclude that there needs to be some rethinking about providing avenues for victims to report the crime or at least making them more comfortable when doing so.

Elementary operators-still not elementary?

Properties of elementary operators, that is, finite sums of two-sided multiplications on a Banach algebra, have been studied under a vast variety of aspects by numerous authors. In this paper we review recent advances in a new direction that seems not to have been explored before: the question when an elementary operator is spectrally bounded or spectrally isometric. As with other investigations, a number of subtleties occur which show that elementary operators are still not elementary to handle.