Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of an adaptive optics system with laser propagation in the atmosphere

A comprehensive model of laser propagation in the atmosphere with a complete adaptive optics (AO) system for phase compensation is presented, and a corresponding computer program is compiled. A direct wave-front gradient control method is used to reconstruct the wave-front phase. With the long-exposure Strehl ratio as the evaluation parameter, a numerical simulation of an AO system in a stationary state with the atmospheric propagation of a laser beam was conducted. It was found that for certain conditions the phase screen that describes turbulence in the atmosphere might not be isotropic. Numerical experiments show that the computational results in imaging of lenses by means of the fast Fourier transform (FFT) method agree well with those computed by means of an integration method. However, the computer time required for the FFT method is 1 order of magnitude less than that of the integration method. Phase tailoring of the calculated phase is presented as a means to solve the problem that variance of the calculated residual phase does not correspond to the correction effectiveness of an AO system. It is found for the first time to our knowledge that for a constant delay time of an AO system, when the lateral wind speed exceeds a threshold, the compensation effectiveness of an AO system is better than that of complete phase conjugation. This finding indicates that the better compensation capability of an AO system does not mean better correction effectiveness. (C) 2000 Optical Society of America.

An Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian Method for Three-Phase Flows with Triple Junction Points

We present a moving mesh method suitable for solving two-dimensional and axisymmetric three-liquid flows with triple junction points. This method employs a body-fitted unstructured mesh where the interfaces between liquids are lines of the mesh system, and the triple junction points (if exist) are mesh nodes. To enhance the accuracy and the efficiency of the method, the mesh is constantly adapted to the evolution of the interfaces by refining and coarsening the mesh locally; dynamic boundary conditions on interfaces, in particular the triple points, are therefore incorporated naturally and accurately in a Finite- Element formulation. In order to allow pressure discontinuity across interfaces, double-values of pressure are necessary for interface nodes and triple-values of pressure on triple junction points. The resulting non-linear system of mass and momentum conservation is then solved by an Uzawa method, with the zero resultant condition on triple points reinforced at each time step. The method is used to investigate the rising of a liquid drop with an attached bubble in a lighter liquid.

Effect of addition of Zn on the catalytic activity of a Co/HZSM-5 catalyst for the SCR of NOx with CH4

The selective catalytic reduction (SCR) of NOx by methane in the presence of excess oxygen was studied on a Zn-Co/HZSM-5 catalyst. It was found that the addition of Zn could improve effectively the selectivity of methane towards NOx reduction. When prepared by a coimpregnation method, the Zn-Co/HZSM-5 catalyst showed much higher catalytic activity than the two catalysts of a Zn/Co/HZSM-5 and Co/Zn/HZSM-5 prepared by the successive impregnation method. It is considered that there exists a cooperative effect among the Zn, Co and zeolite, which enhances the reduction of NO to NO2 reaction and the activation of methane. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Electrochemiluminescence of dichlorotris (1,10-phenanthroline) ruthenium (II) with peroxydisulfate in purely aqueous solution at carbon paste electrode

The electrochemiluminescence (ECL) of dichlorotris (1,10-phenanthroline) ruthenium (11) [Ru(phen)(3)(2+)] with peroxydisulfate (S2O82-) was first described. The use of carbon paste electrodes, organic solvent modified electrodes, allowed obtaining ECL in purely aqueous solution. The ECL produced by the reaction of electrogenerated C Ru(phen)(3)(2+) with the strongly oxidizing intermediate SO4-., was observed only when the applied potential was negative enough to reduce Ru(phen)(3)(2+). In comparison with Ru(bpy)(3)(2+)/S2O82- ECL, the Ru(phen)(3)(2+)/O-8(2-)/S2O82- ECL was more stable in aqueous solution. It was not affected by the storage of the carbon paste electrodes, and it quenched only at quite high S2O82- concentrations. The ECL intensity was a function of S2O82- concentration, increasing linearly with the S2O82- concentration from 5 X 10(-6) to 2 X 10(-3) mol l(-1), and dropping off sharply at S2O82- concentration higher than 20 mmol l(-1). The proposed ECL method with Ru(phen)(3)(2+) was sensitive and selective for the determination of S2O82-. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Polymer/silica nanoscale hybrids through sol-gel method involving emulsion polymers. 1. Morphology of poly(butyl methacrylate)/SiO2

In this article, we report on an approach of using an emulsion polymerized polymer in preparing organic-inorganic nanocomposites through a sol-gel technique. By mixing a polymer emulsion with prehydrolyzed tetraethoxysilane transparent poly(butyl methacrylate)/SiO2, nanocomposites were prepared as shown by TEM. AFM, FTIR, and XPS results show that there is a strong interaction between polymer latex particles and the SiO2 network. Comparison of the emulsion method with a traditional solution method shows that nanocomposites can be prepared by both methods, but there is some difference in their morphology and properties.

2-(2-Phenyl-1H-phenanthro-[9,10-d]imidazole-1-yl)-acetic acid (PPIA) and its application for determination of amines by high performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection and identification with mass spectroscopy/atmospheric pressure chemical ionization

A simple, sensitive, and mild method for the determination of amino compounds based on a condensation reaction with 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylaminopropyl)-carbodiimide hydrochloride (EDC-HCI) as the dehydrant with fluorescence detection has been developed. Amines were derivatized to their acidamides with labeling reagent 2-(2-phenyl-1H-phenanthro-[9,10-d]imidazole-1-yl)-acetic acid (PPIA). Studies on derivatization conditions indicated that the coupling reaction proceeded rapidly and smoothly in the presence of a base catalyst in acetonitrile to give the corresponding sensitively fluorescent derivatives with an excitation maximum at lambda(ex) 260nm and an emission maximum at lambda(em) 380nm. The labeled derivatives exhibited high stability and were enough to be efficiently analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography. Identification of derivatives was carried out by online post-column mass spectrometry (LC/APCI-MS/MS) and showed an intense protonated molecular ion corresponding m/z [MH](+) under APCI in positive-ion mode. At the same time, the fluorescence properties of derivatives in various solvents or at different temperature were investigated. The method, in conjunction with a gradient elution, offered a baseline resolution of the common amine derivatives on a reversed-phase Eclipse XDB-C-8 column. LC separation for the derivatized amines showed good reproducibility with acetonitrile-water as mobile phase. Detection limits calculated from 0.78 pmol injection, at a signal-to-noise ratio of 3, were 3.1-18.2 fmol. The mean intra- and inter-assay precision for all amine levels were < 3.85% and 2.11%, respectively. Excellent linear responses were observed with coefficients of > 0.9996. The established method for the determination of aliphatic amines from real wastewater and biological samples was satisfactory. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simple derivatization method for sensitive determination of fatty acids with fluorescence detection by high-performance liquid chromatography using 9-(2-hydroxyethyl)-carbazole as derivatization reagent

A simple and sensitive method for the determination of short and long-chain fatty acids using high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorimetric detection has been developed. The fatty acids were derivatized to their corresponding esters with 9-(2-hydroxyethyl)-carbazole (HEC) in acetonitrile at 60 degreesC with 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylaminopropyl)carbodiimide hydrochloride as a coupling agent in the presence of 4-dimethylaminopyridine (DMAP). A mixture of esters of C-1-C-20 fatty acids was completely separated within 38 min in conjunction with a gradient elution on a reversed-phase C-18 column. The maximum fluorescence emission for the derivatized fatty acids is at 365 nm (lambda (ex) 335 nm). Studies on derivatization conditions indicate that fatty acids react proceeded rapidly and smoothly with HEC in the presence of EDC and DMAP in acetonitrile to give the corresponding sensitively fluorescent derivatives. The application of this method to the analysis of long chain fatty acids in plasma is also investigated. The LC separation shows good selectivity and reproducibility for fatty acids derivatives. The R.S.D. (n = 6) for each fatty acid derivative are <4%. The detection limits are at 45-68 fmol levels for C-14-C-20 fatty acids and even lower levels for 14 fatty acids. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Certified Rapid Solution of Parametrized Linear Elliptic Equations: Application to Parameter Estimation

We present a technique for the rapid and reliable evaluation of linear-functional output of elliptic partial differential equations with affine parameter dependence. The essential components are (i) rapidly uniformly convergent reduced-basis approximations — Galerkin projection onto a space WN spanned by solutions of the governing partial differential equation at N (optimally) selected points in parameter space; (ii) a posteriori error estimation — relaxations of the residual equation that provide inexpensive yet sharp and rigorous bounds for the error in the outputs; and (iii) offline/online computational procedures — stratagems that exploit affine parameter dependence to de-couple the generation and projection stages of the approximation process. The operation count for the online stage — in which, given a new parameter value, we calculate the output and associated error bound — depends only on N (typically small) and the parametric complexity of the problem. The method is thus ideally suited to the many-query and real-time contexts. In this paper, based on the technique we develop a robust inverse computational method for very fast solution of inverse problems characterized by parametrized partial differential equations. The essential ideas are in three-fold: first, we apply the technique to the forward problem for the rapid certified evaluation of PDE input-output relations and associated rigorous error bounds; second, we incorporate the reduced-basis approximation and error bounds into the inverse problem formulation; and third, rather than regularize the goodness-of-fit objective, we may instead identify all (or almost all, in the probabilistic sense) system configurations consistent with the available experimental data — well-posedness is reflected in a bounded "possibility region" that furthermore shrinks as the experimental error is decreased.

Family-based association analysis with ordered categorical phenotypes, covariates and interactions

Genetic association analyses of family-based studies with ordered categorical phenotypes are often conducted using methods either for quantitative or for binary traits, which can lead to suboptimal analyses. Here we present an alternative likelihood-based method of analysis for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes and ordered categorical phenotypes in nuclear families of any size. Our approach, which extends our previous work for binary phenotypes, permits straightforward inclusion of covariate, gene-gene and gene-covariate interaction terms in the likelihood, incorporates a simple model for ascertainment and allows for family-specific effects in the hypothesis test. Additionally, our method produces interpretable parameter estimates and valid confidence intervals. We assess the proposed method using simulated data, and apply it to a polymorphism in the c-reactive protein (CRP) gene typed in families collected to investigate human systemic lupus erythematosus. By including sex interactions in the analysis, we show that the polymorphism is associated with anti-nuclear autoantibody (ANA) production in females, while there appears to be no effect in males.

Integration of a 3D Variational data assimilation scheme with a coastal area morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay

This paper describes the implementation of a 3D variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a morphodynamic model applied to Morecambe Bay, UK. A simple decoupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model is combined with a data assimilation scheme to investigate the ability of such methods to improve the accuracy of the predicted bathymetry. The inverse forecast error covariance matrix is modelled using a Laplacian approximation which is calibrated for the length scale parameter required. Calibration is also performed for the Soulsby-van Rijn sediment transport equations. The data used for assimilation purposes comprises waterlines derived from SAR imagery covering the entire period of the model run, and swath bathymetry data collected by a ship-borne survey for one date towards the end of the model run. A LiDAR survey of the entire bay carried out in November 2005 is used for validation purposes. The comparison of the predictive ability of the model alone with the model-forecast-assimilation system demonstrates that using data assimilation significantly improves the forecast skill. An investigation of the assimilation of the swath bathymetry as well as the waterlines demonstrates that the overall improvement is initially large, but decreases over time as the bathymetry evolves away from that observed by the survey. The result of combining the calibration runs into a pseudo-ensemble provides a higher skill score than for a single optimized model run. A brief comparison of the Optimal Interpolation assimilation method with the 3D-Var method shows that the two schemes give similar results.

Micellar properties of surface active ionic liquids: A comparison of 1-hexadecyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride with structurally related cationic surfactants

Ionic liquids, ILs, carrying long-chain alkyl groups are surface active, SAIIs. We investigated the micellar properties of the SAIL 1-hexadecyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride, C(16)MeImCl, and compared the data with 1-hexadecylpyridinium chloride, C(16)PYCl, and benzyl (3-hexadecanoylaminoethyl)dimethylammonium chloride, C(15)AEtBzMe(2)Cl. The properties compared include critical micelle concentration, cmc; thermodynamic parameters of micellization; empirical polarity and water concentrations in the interfacial regions. In the temperature range from 15 to 75 degrees C, the order of cmc in H(2)O and in D(2)O is C(16)PYCl > C(16)MeImCl > C(15)AEtBzMe(2)Cl. The enthalpies of micellization, Delta H(mic)(degrees), were calculated indirectly from by use of the van`t Hoff treatment; directly by isothermal titration calorimetry, ITC. Calculation of the degree of counter-ion dissociation, alpha(mic), from conductivity measurements, by use of Evans equation requires knowledge of the aggregation numbers, N(agg), at different temperatures. We have introduced a reliable method for carrying out this calculation, based on the volume and length of the monomer, and the dependence of N(agg) on temperature. The N(agg) calculated for C(16)PyCl and C(16)MeImCl were corroborated by light scattering measurements. Conductivity- and ITC-based Delta H(mic)(degrees) do not agree; reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. Micelle formation is entropy driven: at all studied temperatures for C(16)MeImCl; only up to 65 degrees C for C(16)PyCl; and up to 55 degrees C for C(15)AEtBzMe(2)Cl. All these data can be rationalized by considering hydrogen-bonding between the head-ions of the monomers in the micellar aggregate. The empirical polarities and concentrations of interfacial water were found to be independent of the nature of the head-group. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A fast method using a new hydrophilic–lipophilic balanced sorbent in combination with ultra-high performance liquid chromatography for quantification of significant bioactive metabolites in wines

This manuscript describes the development and validation of an ultra-fast, efficient, and high throughput analytical method based on ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) equipped with a photodiode array (PDA) detection system, for the simultaneous analysis of fifteen bioactive metabolites: gallic acid, protocatechuic acid, (−)-catechin, gentisic acid, (−)-epicatechin, syringic acid, p-coumaric acid, ferulic acid, m-coumaric acid, rutin, trans-resveratrol, myricetin, quercetin, cinnamic acid and kaempferol, in wines. A 50-mm column packed with 1.7-μm particles operating at elevated pressure (UHPLC strategy) was selected to attain ultra-fast analysis and highly efficient separations. In order to reduce the complexity of wine extract and improve the recovery efficiency, a reverse-phase solid-phase extraction (SPE) procedure using as sorbent a new macroporous copolymer made from a balanced ratio of two monomers, the lipophilic divinylbenzene and the hydrophilic N-vinylpyrrolidone (Oasis™ HLB), was performed prior to UHPLC–PDA analysis. The calibration curves of bioactive metabolites showed good linearity within the established range. Limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) ranged from 0.006 μg mL−1 to 0.58 μg mL−1, and from 0.019 μg mL−1 to 1.94 μg mL−1, for gallic and gentisic acids, respectively. The average recoveries ± SD for the three levels of concentration tested (n = 9) in red and white wines were, respectively, 89 ± 3% and 90 ± 2%. The repeatability expressed as relative standard deviation (RSD) was below 10% for all the metabolites assayed. The validated method was then applied to red and white wines from different geographical origins (Azores, Canary and Madeira Islands). The most abundant component in the analysed red wines was (−)-epicatechin followed by (−)-catechin and rutin, whereas in white wines syringic and p-coumaric acids were found the major phenolic metabolites. The method was completely validated, providing a sensitive analysis for bioactive phenolic metabolites detection and showing satisfactory data for all the parameters tested. Moreover, was revealed as an ultra-fast approach allowing the separation of the fifteen bioactive metabolites investigated with high resolution power within 5 min.

Genetic parameter estimates for live weight and daily live weight gain obtained for Nellore bulls in a test station using different models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)