Evaluation of TRMM PR Sampling Error Over a Subtropical Basin Using Bootstrap Technique

Quantitative use of satellite-derived rainfall products for various scientific applications often requires them to be accompanied with an error estimate. Rainfall estimates inferred from low earth orbiting satellites like the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) will be subjected to sampling errors of nonnegligible proportions owing to the narrow swath of satellite sensors coupled with a lack of continuous coverage due to infrequent satellite visits. The authors investigate sampling uncertainty of seasonal rainfall estimates from the active sensor of TRMM, namely, Precipitation Radar (PR), based on 11 years of PR 2A25 data product over the Indian subcontinent. In this paper, a statistical bootstrap technique is investigated to estimate the relative sampling errors using the PR data themselves. Results verify power law scaling characteristics of relative sampling errors with respect to space-time scale of measurement. Sampling uncertainty estimates for mean seasonal rainfall were found to exhibit seasonal variations. To give a practical example of the implications of the bootstrap technique, PR relative sampling errors over a subtropical river basin of Mahanadi, India, are examined. Results reveal that the bootstrap technique incurs relative sampling errors < 33% (for the 2 degrees grid), < 36% (for the 1 degrees grid), < 45% (for the 0.5 degrees grid), and < 57% (for the 0.25 degrees grid). With respect to rainfall type, overall sampling uncertainty was found to be dominated by sampling uncertainty due to stratiform rainfall over the basin. The study compares resulting error estimates to those obtained from latin hypercube sampling. Based on this study, the authors conclude that the bootstrap approach can be successfully used for ascertaining relative sampling errors offered by TRMM-like satellites over gauged or ungauged basins lacking in situ validation data. This technique has wider implications for decision making before incorporating microwave orbital data products in basin-scale hydrologic modeling.

Evaluation of Precipitation Retrievals From Orbital Data Products of TRMM Over a Subtropical Basin in India

The spatial error structure of daily precipitation derived from the latest version 7 (v7) tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) level 2 data products are studied through comparison with the Asian precipitation highly resolved observational data integration toward evaluation of the water resources (APHRODITE) data over a subtropical region of the Indian subcontinent for the seasonal rainfall over 6 years from June 2002 to September 2007. The data products examined include v7 data from the TRMM radiometer Microwave Imager (TMI) and radar precipitation radar (PR), namely, 2A12, 2A25, and 2B31 (combined data from PR and TMI). The spatial distribution of uncertainty from these data products were quantified based on performance metrics derived from the contingency table. For the seasonal daily precipitation over a subtropical basin in India, the data product of 2A12 showed greater skill in detecting and quantifying the volume of rainfall when compared with the 2A25 and 2B31 data products. Error characterization using various error models revealed that random errors from multiplicative error models were homoscedastic and that they better represented rainfall estimates from 2A12 algorithm. Error decomposition techniques performed to disentangle systematic and random errors verify that the multiplicative error model representing rainfall from 2A12 algorithm successfully estimated a greater percentage of systematic error than 2A25 or 2B31 algorithms. Results verify that although the radiometer derived 2A12 rainfall data is known to suffer from many sources of uncertainties, spatial analysis over the case study region of India testifies that the 2A12 rainfall estimates are in a very good agreement with the reference estimates for the data period considered.

Simulations and mechanisms of subtropical low-cloud response to climate change

This thesis focuses on improving the simulation skills and the theoretical understanding of the subtropical low cloud response to climate change.

First, an energetically consistent forcing framework is designed and implemented for the large eddy simulation (LES) of the low-cloud response to climate change. The three representative current-day subtropical low cloud regimes of cumulus (Cu), cumulus-over-stratocumulus, and stratocumulus (Sc) are all well simulated with this framework, and results are comparable to the conventional fixed-SST approach. However, the cumulus response to climate warming subject to energetic constraints differs significantly from the conventional approach with fixed SST. Under the energetic constraint, the subtropics warm less than the tropics, since longwave (LW) cooling is more efficient with the drier subtropical free troposphere. The surface latent heat flux (LHF) also increases only weakly subject to the surface energetic constraint. Both factors contribute to an increased estimated inversion strength (EIS), and decreased inversion height. The decreased Cu-depth contributes to a decrease of liquid water path (LWP) and weak positive cloud feedback. The conventional fixed-SST approach instead simulates a strong increase in LHF and deepening of the Cu layer, leading to a weakly negative cloud feedback. This illustrates the importance of energetic constraints to the simulation and understanding of the sign and magnitude of low-cloud feedback.

Second, an extended eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) closure for the unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence and convection processes in general circulation models (GCM) is presented. The inclusion of prognostic terms and the elimination of the infinitesimal updraft fraction assumption makes it more flexible for implementation in models across different scales. This framework can be consistently extended to formulate multiple updrafts and downdrafts, as well as variances and covariances. It has been verified with LES in different boundary layer regimes in the current climate, and further development and implementation of this closure may help to improve our simulation skills and understanding of low-cloud feedback through GCMs.

Increases in the relative abundance of mid-trophic level fishes concurrent with declines in apex predators in the subtropical North Pacific, 1996–2006

Catch rates for the 13 most abundant species caught in the deep-set Hawaii-based longline fishery over the past decade (1996–2006) provide evidence of a change among the top North Pacific subtropical predators. Catch rates for apex predators such as blue shark (Prionace glauca), bigeye (Thunnus obesus) and albacore (Thunnus alalunga) tunas, shortbill spearfish (Tetrapturus angustirostris), and striped marlin (Tetrapturus audax) declined by 3% to 9% per year and catch rates for four midtrophic species, mahimahi (Coryphaena hippurus), sickle pomfret (Taractichthys steindachneri), escolar (Lepidocybium flavobrunneum), and snake mackerel (Gempylus serpens), increased by 6% to 18% per year. The mean trophic level of the catch for these 13 species declined 5%, from 3.85 to 3.66. A shift in the ecosystem to an increase in midtrophic-level, fast-growing and short-lived species is indicated by the decline in apex predators in the catch (from 70% to 40%) and the increase in species with production to biomass values of 1.0 or larger in the catch (from 20% to 40%). This altered ecosystem may exhibit more temporal variation in response to climate variability.

Biological characteristics and mortality of western butterfish (Pentapodus vitta), an abundant bycatch species of prawn trawling and recreational fishing in a large subtropical embayment

The western butterfish (Pentapodus vitta) is numerous in the bycatch of prawn trawling and recreational fishing in Shark Bay, Western Australia. We have thus determined crucial aspects of its biological characteristics and the potential impact of fishing on its abundance within this large subtropical marine embayment. Although both sexes attained a maximum age of 8 years, males grow more rapidly and to a larger size. Maturity is attained at the end of the first year of life and spawning occurs between October and January. The use of a Bayesian approach to combine independent estimates for total mortality, Z, and natural mortality, M, yielded slightly higher point estimates for Z than M. This result indicates that P. vitta is lightly impacted by fishing. It is relevant that, potentially, the individuals can spawn twice before recruitment into the fishery and that 73% of recreationally caught individuals are returned live to the water.