Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Acceptance and potential barriers to effective use of diagnostic tests for visceral leishmaniasis in an urban area in Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Acceptance of the IT LEISH(r) and direct agglutination test- made in the Laboratório de Pesquisas Clínicas (DAT-LPC) by healthcare professionals and patients suspected of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Ribeirão das Neves was evaluated. METHODS: Ninety-two patients and 47 professionals completed three questionnaires. RESULTS: Eighty-eight (96%) patients considered fingertip blood collection a positive test feature, and 86% (37) and 91% of professionals considered the IT LEISH(r) easy to perform and interpret, respectively. All professionals classified the DAT-LPC as simple and easy. CONCLUSIONS: Patients and healthcare professionals in Ribeirão das Neves demonstrated a high degree of acceptance of the IT LEISH(r) and DAT-LPC.

Improving the early diagnostic of prostate cancer by multiple biomarker detection with new biosensing devices

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common form of cancer in men, in Europe (World Health Organization data). The most recent statistics, in Portuguese territory, confirm this scenario, which states that about 50% of Portuguese men may suffer from prostate cancer and 15% of these will die from this condition. Its early detection is therefore fundamental. This is currently being done by Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening in urine but false positive and negative results are quite often obtained and many patients are sent to unnecessary biopsy procedures. This early detection protocol may be improved, by the development of point-of-care cancer detection devices, not only to PSA but also to other biomarkers recently identified. Thus, the present work aims to screen several biomarkers in cultured human prostate cell lines, serum and urine samples, developing low cost sensors based on new synthetic biomaterials. Biomarkers considered in this study are the following: prostate specific antigen (PSA), annexin A3 (ANXA3), microseminoprotein-beta (MSMB) and sarcosine (SAR). The biomarker recognition may occurs by means of molecularly imprinted polymers (MIP), which are a kind of plastic antibodies, and enzymatic approaches. The growth of a rigid polymer, chemically stable, using the biomarker as a template allows the synthesis of the plastic antibody. MIPs show high sensitivity/selectivity and present much longer stability and much lower price than natural antibodies. This nanostructured material was prepared on a carbon solid. The interaction between the biomarker and the sensing-material produces electrical signals generating quantitative or semi-quantitative data. These devices allow inexpensive and portable detection in point-of-care testing.

Molecular tools in the diagnostic and epidemiology of infections caused by members of Mycobacterium avium Complex

Mycobacterium avium Complex (MAC) comprises microorganisms that affect a wide range of animals including humans. The most relevant are Mycobacterium avium subspecies hominissuis (Mah) with a high impact on public health affecting mainly immunocompromised individuals and Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) causing paratuberculosis in animals with a high economic impact worldwide. In this work, we characterized 28 human and 67 porcine Mah isolates and evaluated the relationship among them by Multiple-Locus Variable number tandem repeat Analysis (MLVA). We concluded that Mah population presented a high genetic diversity and no correlations were inferred based on geographical origin, host or biological sample. For the first time in Portugal Map strains, from asymptomatic bovine faecal samples were isolated highlighting the need of more reliable and rapid diagnostic methods for Map direct detection. Therefore, we developed an IS900 nested real time PCR with high sensitivity and specificity associated with optimized DNA extraction methodologies for faecal and milk samples. We detected 83% of 155 faecal samples from goats, cattle and sheep, and 26% of 98 milk samples from cattle, positive for Map IS900 nested real time PCR. A novel SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) assay to Map characterization based on a Whole Genome Sequencing analysis was developed to elucidate the genetic relationship between strains. Based on sequential detection of 14 SNPs and on a decision tree we were able to differentiate 14 phylogenetic groups with a higher discriminatory power compared to other typing methods. A pigmented Map strain was isolated and characterized evidencing for the first time to our knowledge the existence of pigmented Type C strains. With this work, we intended to improve the ante mortem direct molecular detection of Map, to conscientiously aware for the existence of Map animal infections widespread in Portugal and to contribute to the improvement of Map and Mah epidemiological studies.

Does the existing Corporate Governance structure and strict Legal Framework, affect the strategic decisionmaking of CEOs?

This thesis is a case study on Corporate Governance and Business Ethics, using the Portuguese Corporate Law as a general setting. The thesis was conducted in Portugal with illustrations on past cases under the Business Judgment Rule of the State of Delaware, U.SA along with illustrations on current cases in Portugal under the Portuguese Judicial setting, along with a comparative analysis between both. A debate is being considered among scholars and executives; a debate on best practices within corporate governance and corporate law, associated with recent discoveries of unlawful investments that lead to the bankruptcy of leading institutions and an aggravation of the crisis in Portugal. The study aimed at learning possible reasons and causes for the current situation of the country’s corporations along with attempts to discover the best way to move forward. From the interviews and analysis conducted, this paper concluded that the corporate governance structure and legal frameworks in Portugal were not the sole influencers behind the actions and decisions of Corporate Executives, nor were they the main triggers for the recent corporate mishaps. But it is rather a combination of different factors that played a significant role, such as cultural and ethical aspects, individual personalities, and others all of which created gray areas beyond the legal structure, which in turn accelerated and aggravated the corporate governance crisis in the country.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

Educação para a sustentabilidade: O uso de Sistemas de Informação Geográfica Participativos como instrumento de participação de crianças e adolescentes na construção de sociedades mais sustentáveis

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação (Área de Conhecimento: Educação ambiental e para a Sustentabilidade)

Clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix in a young woman: a diagnostic challenge

Clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix is a rare tumor, classically related with in utero diethylstilbestrol (DES) exposure. The authors report a rare case of clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix in a 21-yearold woman who had no history of in utero DES exposure, presenting with intermittent vaginal bleeding. It stresses the relevance to always clarify the etiology of abnormal genital bleeding and consider the possibility of cervicovaginal tumors.

Validity of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the bipolar spectrum diagnostic scale

OBJECTIVE: Bipolar spectrum disorders (BSDs) are prevalent and frequently unrecognized and undertreated. This report describes the development and validation of the Brazilian version of the bipolar spectrum diagnostic scale (B-BSDS), a screening instrument for bipolar disorders, in an adult psychiatric population. METHOD: 114 consecutive patients attending an outpatient psychiatric clinic completed the B-BSDS. A research psychiatrist, blind to the B-BSDS scores, interviewed patients by means of a modified version of the mood module of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV ("gold standard"). Subthreshold bipolar disorders were defined as recurrent hypomania without a major depressive episode or with fewer symptoms than those required for threshold hypomania. RESULTS: The internal consistency of the B-BSDS evaluated with Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.89 (95% CI; 0.86-0.91). On the basis of the modified SCID, 70 patients (61.4%) of the sample received a diagnosis of BSDs. A B-BSDS screening score of 16 or more items yielded: sensitivity of 0.79 (95% CI; 0.72-0.85), specificity of 0.77 (95% CI; 0.70-0.83), a positive predictive value of 0.85 (95% CI; 0.78-0.91) and a negative predictive value of 0.70 (95% CI; 0.63-0.75). CONCLUSION: The present data demonstrate that the B-BSDS is a valid instrument for the screening of BSDs.

VET: a strategic approach for economic, organisational and personal development in EU countries

Vocational Education and Training (VET) is a continuous long-term process of economic, organisational and personal development. It envisions the construction of dynamic skills to improve performance, productivity and organisational, personal and social development. This article focuses on generating skills. It frames training as a process of work-linked training and as a primary source for generating skills whilst seeking to boost creativity. It sheds light upon the discussion pertaining to learning transfer as a necessary condition to structure performance and competitiveness. It highlights the Learning Transfer System Inventory (LTSI), because it allows to measure the effectiveness of training and it identifies the organisations' weaknesses. The data used were collected from the Eurostat Database.

The diagnostic and prognostic role of liquid-based cytology: are we ready to monitor therapy and resistance?

Here, we evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic role of liquid-based cytology (LBC) in different body lesions, including thyroid, lung, effusions and malignant breast lesions. LBC has gained consensus after being applied to both non-gynecologic and fine-needle aspiration cytology. Although some remain sceptical regarding the diagnostic efficacy of LBC, mainly when used alone, in recent years, good results have been obtained as long as it showed a high diagnostic accuracy. Here, we discuss the additional possibility of storing material for the application of ancillary techniques (immunocytochemistry–molecular analysis) with several diagnostic and prognostic advantages, which may pave the way for the challenging evaluation of both monitoring responses to treatment and resistance to targeted therapies in thyroid, lung, breast carcinoma or malignant effusions. Furthermore, it provides the use of several molecular spots as specific targets for personalized therapy.

Improving diagnostic yield in obscure gastrointestinal bleeding - how virtual chromoendoscopy may be the answer

Background and aim: A significant proportion of patients presenting with obscure gastrointestinal bleeding (OGIB) have negative small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) examinations, and yet remain at risk of rebleeding. We aimed to evaluate whether a second-look review of SBCE images using flexible spectral color enhancement (FICE) may improve the detection of potentially bleeding lesions. Materials and methods: This was a retrospective, single-center study including consecutive patients with OGIB subjected to SBCE, whose standard white light examination was nondiagnostic. Each SBCE was reviewed using FICE 1. New findings were labeled as either P1 or P2 lesions according to bleeding potential. Patients were followed up to assess the incidence of rebleeding. Results: A total of 42 consecutive patients were included. Sixteen patients (38%) experienced rebleeding after a mean follow-up of 26 months. Review of SBCE images using FICE 1 enabled the identification of previously unrecognized P2 lesions, mainly angioectasias, in nine patients (21%) and P1 lesions, mainly erosions, in 26 patients (62%). Among patients who experienced rebleeding, 13/16 (81%) were diagnosed with P1 lesions with FICE 1 (P=0.043), whereas 3/16 (19%) had confirmed nondiagnostic SBCE and only 1/16 (6%) had newly diagnosed P2 (plus P1) lesions. An alternative source of bleeding outside the small bowel was found in only 3/16 (19%) patients with rebleeding during the follow-up. Conclusion: In a significant proportion of patients with OGIB, FICE 1 may detect potentially bleeding lesions previously missed under conventional white light SBCE. Review of nondiagnostic SBCE with FICE 1 may be a valuable strategy to obviate the need for further investigations in patients with OGIB, particularly for those who experience rebleeding.

Anomalous origin of the left coronary artery from the right pulmonary artery with intramural aortic trajectory. Clinicosurgical diagnostic implications

OBJECTIVE: Anomalous origin of the left coronary artery from the right pulmonary artery (AOLCARPA), is a rare entity that is usually associated with other defects. Of the 20 cases of AOLCARPA reported in the literature, 14 (70%) had associations. We describe four patients with AOLCARPA without associated defects, but with a peculiar intramural aortic trajectory. METHODS: Fifty-five patients with anomalous origin of the left coronary artery were operated upon at INCOR-FMUSP. Four of the patients had the anomalous origin from the right pulmonary artery (RPA) without associated defects but with intramural aortic trajectory. Clinical and laboratory examinations were analyzed, as well as surgical findings. RESULTS: All patients had congestive heart failure (CHF) and 3 also had angina pectoris. Two patients had a murmur of mitral regurgitation, signs of myocardial infarction on the ECG and cardiomegaly. The shortening fraction varied from 9% to 23%. The hemodynamic study confirmed the diagnosis of anomalous origin of the coronary artery, but the intramural trajectory and the origin from the RPA were established only at surgery. In 3 patients, the technique of side-to-side anastomosis was performed with a good outcome. One patient, who underwent end-to-side anastomosis, died 6 months after the surgery. CONCLUSION: Association with other defects usually occurs in the AOLCARPA, and the intramural aortic trajectory is difficult to clinically diagnose but easy to surgically correct.