ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.

ENSO related variation of equatorial MRG and Rossby waves and forcing from higher latitudes

The contrasting behaviour of westward-moving mixed Rossby-gravity (WMRG) and the first Rossby (R1) waves in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) seasons is documented with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere winter. The eastward-moving variance in the upper troposphere is dominated by WMRG and R1 structures that appear to be Doppler-shifted by the flow and are referred to as WMRG-E and R1-E. In the East Pacific and Atlantic the years with stronger equatorial westerly winds have the stronger WMRG and WMRG- E. In the East Pacific, R1 is also a maximum in LN. However, R1-E exhibits an eastward-shift between LN and EN. The changes with ENSO phase provide a test-bed for the understanding of these waves. In the East Pacific and Atlantic, the stronger WMRG-E and WMRG with stronger westerlies are in accord with the dispersion relation with simple Doppler-shifting by the zonal flow. The possible existence of free waves can also explain stronger R1 in EN in the Eastern Hemisphere. 1-D free wave propagation theory based on wave activity conservation is also important for R1. However, this theory is unable to explain the amplitude maxima for other waves observed in the strong equatorial westerly regions in the Western Hemisphere, and certainly not their ENSO-related variation. The forcing of equatorial waves by higher latitude wave activity and its variation with ENSO phase is therefore examined. Propagation of extratropical eastward-moving Rossby wave activity through the westerly ducts into the equatorial region where it triggers WMRG-E is favoured in the stronger westerlies, in LN in the East Pacific and EN in the Atlantic. It is also found that WMRG is forced by Southern Hemisphere westward-moving wavetrains arching into the equatorial region where they are reflected. The most significant mechanism for both R1 and R1-E appear to be lateral forcing by subtropical wavetrains.

Gruvrätten vid Stora Kopparberget 1641-1682 : en undersökning över rannsakade brott och utdömda straff

The purpose of this essay is to examine and explain how the Swedish mining court of Stora Kopparberget (the Great Copper Mountain) implemented its judicial legislation between 1641-1682. Questions are asked about which counts of indictments the court tried, which sentences they handed out, in what quantities and how these results looks in comparison with other contemporary courts. The index cards of the court judicial protocols are the primary source of information. The methods are those of quantity- and comparative analysis.The results show that theft of copper ore was the most common crime ransacked by the court. Other common crimes were (in order): sin of omission, transgression of work directions, fights, slander and disdain, trade of stolen ore, failing appearance in court etc.Fines were by far the most common sentence followed by shorter imprisonments, gauntlets, loss of right to mine possession, twig beating, loss of work, penal servitude, banishment, “wooden horse riding” and finally military transcription. Even though previous re-search, in the field of Swedish specialized courts, is almost non existent evidence confirms great similarities between the Stora Kopparberget mining court and Sala mining court. This essay will, hopefully, enrich our knowledge of specialized courts, of 17th century mining industry and society and let us reach a broader understanding of the working conditions of the mountain.

Borgerlighetens ideal – arbetarnas verklighet. : En studie om Stora Tuna barnavårdsnämnds arbete 1903-1917.

Syftet med denna uppsats har varit att studera hur barnavårdsnämnden i Stora Tuna verkställde lagstiftningen om uppfostran åt vanartade och i sedligt avseende försummade barn. För att uppnå syftet med studien har barnavårdsnämndens ledamöter undersökts, lika så de anmälda barnen. Vad anmäldes de för, vilka blev konsekvenserna och vilka var det som stod för anmälningarna? Resultaten jämförs med tidigare forskning från andra platser. Huvudsakligen har protokoll från barnavårdsnämndens sammanträden mellan 1903 och 1917 använts för att besvara frågeställningarna.Resultatet visar att en klar majoritet av nämndens ledamöter representerade medelklassen eller överklassen, endast ett fåtal kom från arbetarklassen. Men de barn som anmäldes kom nästan uteslutande från arbetarklassen. Detta är något som den tidigare forskningen också framhåller. Pojkar anmäldes i betydligt högre utsträckning än flickor, men de flickor som anmäldes dömdes betydligt hårdare än pojkarna. Flickorna anmäldes främst på grund av de bristande hemförhållanden och påföljderna blev oftast att de skiljdes från hemmet till fosterhem eller till barnhem. Pojkarna anmäldes främst för stöld och den vanligaste påföljden blev en allvarlig varning. Polisen var den grupp som anmälde flest barn till nämnden.

Prevention av stora perinealbristningar vid Sveriges förlossningsavdelningar : En kartläggningsstudie

Bakgrund: I Sverige ökade prevalensen av rupturer grad IV från 2,6% till 4,2% mellan åren 1994-2004. Årligen är det cirka tretusen kvinnor som drabbas av bristningar av grad III och IV i Sverige. Det är en stor spridning mellan Sveriges olika förlossningsavdelningar.Syfte: Syftet var att beskriva åtgärder för prevention av perinealbristningar av grad III och grad IV vid normal förlossning på samtliga förlossningsavdelningar i Sverige.Metod: Deskriptiv kartläggningsstudie med induktiv ansats. Det är en nationell studie som riktar sig till Sveriges alla förlossningsavdelningar. Endast perinealbristning av grad III och grad IV berördes.Resultat: Totalt deltog 38 av 47 (81%) av Sveriges förlossningsavdelningar i studien. Respondenterna var chefsbarnmorskor, avdelningschefer och enhetschefer. Av deltagande förlossningsavdelningar var det 12 (32%) som har någon form av vårdprogram för perinealskydd, många svarar att barnmorskorna utför perinealskydd på rutin. Dock var det inte vedertaget att alltid hålla perinealskydd vid 8% av avdelningarna. 18 avdelningar svarade JA på frågan om särskilda handgrepp användes och då uppgavs Ritgens handgrepp, det norska handgreppet och det finska handgreppet. 74 % använder sig av även andra metoder än handgrepp, framför allt värme (varma handdukar, dukar, handskar, kompresser) som hålls över perineum. Många tog upp vikten av god kommunikation och att hjälpa kvinnan att krysta i rätt tid. Förlossningsställningar som många använde sig av var sidoläge och knästående, medan andra hävdade att knästående ej användes pågrund av den ökande risken för bristningar. 71% av deltagande avdelningar får kontinuerlig utbildning och då nämndes främst workshops och utbildningsdagar.Slutsats: Metoder för att skydda perineum varierar mellan förlossningsavdelningarna i Sverige. På flera av Sveriges förlossningsavdelningar är det inte vedertaget att alltid använda perinealskydd vid normal förlossning. Vad som orsakar detta tros vara att en del barnmorskor, under utbildningen, fått lära sig att inte hålla perinealskydd.Klinisk implikation: Nationella rikitlinjer angående perinealskydd skulle vara av värde för att kunna erbjuda kvinnan vård på samma villkor landet över. Det är av stor vikt att den förlösande barnmorskan är uppmärksam på riskfaktorerna.

"Den stora stygga vargen?" : En argumentationsanalys om vargens moraliska värde i vargdebatten

The purpose of this paper is to see which ethical content arguments have in the debate about wolfhunting, particularly with regard to the Svensk Jakt respective Tidningen Djurens Rätt's arguments. The method used in this paper is the analysis of arguments in which I investigate the pro and contra arguments of the four authors of the articles that I have chosen to study. I will avail myself of theories from Carruthers and Franklin. Analysis shows that the authors of the Swedish hunting above all have a ecocentric view of the wolf where it is an instrumental value for the ecosystem, and the authors of Djurens Rätt's has especially a biocentric view of the wolf where it may be an absolute value, but they can also extend to the that the wolf has instrumental value in the ecocentric perspective. The discussion has shown that Djurens Rätt's and Svensk Jakt has a common position that is an ecocentric perspective where the wolf has instrumental value, even though they believe that different actions are different law to protect the species and the ecosystem.

"Dare to share!" : Bikt, moderskap och motstånd i Den stora mammabikten

”Dare to share!”: Confession, motherhood and resistance in The great mother confession This article explore the meaning of confession in a commercial, secular event – The great mother confession (TGM). The event is understood as imbedded in a therapeutic culture where emotional disclosure, in the form of confessions, is a highly valued practice. In a web-based confession-blog that constitutes part of the TGM-concept, confessions serve to free mothers from supressing norms. The blog becomes an arena for a volatile community where burdening and ”forbidden” thoughts and emotions becomes generalised and disarmed, releasing mothers from guilt. When this function of the blog is questioned from a competing sub-discourse of the therapeutic, emphasising the disclosure of happiness, a struggle emerges over the authority to define the meanings of confession. TGM can be understood as having potential for serving as an arena for challenging norms, but even as norms are implicitly addressed the practice makes a halt at that point. Norms that are seemingly dissolved in responses to confessions are not questioned, only recognised, normalised and de-politicised.

Os formalismos das simetrias de Becchi-Rouet-Stora-Tyutin e de Batalin-Vilkovisky e aplicações

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Variability of rainfall and temperature (1912-2008) parameters measured from Santa Maria (29 degrees 41 ' S, 53 degrees 48 ' W) and their connections with ENSO and solar activity

In this work, we analyze the long term variability of rainfall and temperature (1912-2008) of Santa Maria (29 degrees S, 53 degrees W) and its possible connection with natural influences such as solar activity and ENSO. Temperature and rainfall present similar frequencies as revealed by spectral analyses. This analysis shows a large number of short periods between 2-8 years and periods of 11.8-12.3, 19.1-21.0, and 64.3-82.5 years. The cross correlation for rainfall and temperature versus Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have higher cross-power around 2-8 yr. Rainfall and temperature versus sunspot number (Rz) showed higher cross-power around the 11-yr solar cycle period. A high and continuous cross correlation was observed for Rz-22 yr versus rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, the power between 22-yr solar cycle and meteorological parameters was higher than that obtained with the 11-yr solar cycle, suggesting that the effect of Hale cycle on climate may be stronger than the Schwabe cycle effect. These results indicate that the variability of rainfall and temperature is closely related to the variation of the Southern Oscillation Index and solar activity, and that the El Nino Southern Oscillation and solar activity probably play an important role in the climate system over Southern Brazil. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.