Niobium Effects on the Recrystallization Behavior on a Full Austenitic 15Cr-15Ni Stainless Steel Investigated Using Adaptive Neural Networks (ANN)

A new series of austenitic stainless steels-Nb stabilized, without Mo additions, non-susceptible to delta ferrite formation and devoid of intemetallic phases (sigma and chi), without deformation induced martensite is being developed, aiming at high temperature applications as well as for corrosive environments. The base steel composition is a 15Cr-15Ni with normal additions of Nb of 0.5, 1.0 and 2 wt%. Mechanical properties, oxidation and corrosion resistance already have been invetigated in previous papers. In this paper, the effects of Nb on the SFE, strain hardening and recrystallization resistance are evaluated with the help of Adaptive Neural Networks (ANN).

Proposta de um modelo de dicionário terminológico onomasiológico

The present paper aims at applying a model of bilingual onomasiological terminological dictionary, as proposed by Babini (2001b), for the development of an English-Portuguese and Portuguese-English electronic dictionary of the fundamental Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) terms. This subarea of Artificial Intelligence was chosen due to its use in several technological activities. The onomasiological dictionary is characterized by allowing searches of either lexical or terminological units from its semantic content. Our dictionary model allows two types of search: semasiological and onomasiological. The onomasiological search is made possible by a set of semes or semantic traits that make up the concept of each term in the dictionary.

Identification of structural damage in flexible structures using system norm and neural networks

Nowadays there is great interest in damage identification using non destructive tests. Predictive maintenance is one of the most important techniques that are based on analysis of vibrations and it consists basically of monitoring the condition of structures or machines. A complete procedure should be able to detect the damage, to foresee the probable time of occurrence and to diagnosis the type of fault in order to plan the maintenance operation in a convenient form and occasion. In practical problems, it is frequent the necessity of getting the solution of non linear equations. These processes have been studied for a long time due to its great utility. Among the methods, there are different approaches, as for instance numerical methods (classic), intelligent methods (artificial neural networks), evolutions methods (genetic algorithms), and others. The characterization of damages, for better agreement, can be classified by levels. A new one uses seven levels of classification: detect the existence of the damage; detect and locate the damage; detect, locate and quantify the damages; predict the equipment's working life; auto-diagnoses; control for auto structural repair; and system of simultaneous control and monitoring. The neural networks are computational models or systems for information processing that, in a general way, can be thought as a device black box that accepts an input and produces an output. Artificial neural nets (ANN) are based on the biological neural nets and possess habilities for identification of functions and classification of standards. In this paper a methodology for structural damages location is presented. This procedure can be divided on two phases. The first one uses norms of systems to localize the damage positions. The second one uses ANN to quantify the severity of the damage. The paper concludes with a numerical application in a beam like structure with five cases of structural damages with different levels of severities. The results show the applicability of the presented methodology. A great advantage is the possibility of to apply this approach for identification of simultaneous damages.

Previsão da velocidade dos ventos por redes neurais artificiais e arima de box & jenkins

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classification of Data to Extract Knowledge from Neural Networks

A major drawback of artificial neural networks is their black-box character. Therefore, the rule extraction algorithm is becoming more and more important in explaining the extracted rules from the neural networks. In this paper, we use a method that can be used for symbolic knowledge extraction from neural networks, once they have been trained with desired function. The basis of this method is the weights of the neural network trained. This method allows knowledge extraction from neural networks with continuous inputs and output as well as rule extraction. An example of the application is showed. This example is based on the extraction of average load demand of a power plant.

Earthmoving trucks condition level prediction using neural networks

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present an artificial neural network (ANN) model that predicts earthmoving trucks condition level using simple predictors; the model’s performance is compared to the respective predictive accuracy of the statistical method of discriminant analysis (DA).

Design/methodology/approach: An ANN-based predictive model is developed. The condition level predictors selected are the capacity, age, kilometers travelled and maintenance level. The relevant data set was provided by two Greek construction companies and includes the characteristics of 126 earthmoving trucks.

Findings: Data processing identifies a particularly strong connection of kilometers travelled and maintenance level with the earthmoving trucks condition level. Moreover, the validation process reveals that the predictive efficiency of the proposed ANN model is very high. Similar findings emerge from the application of DA to the same data set using the same predictors.

Originality/value: Earthmoving trucks’ sound condition level prediction reduces downtime and its adverse impact on earthmoving duration and cost, while also enhancing the maintenance and replacement policies effectiveness. This research proves that a sound condition level prediction for earthmoving trucks is achievable through the utilization of easy to collect data and provides a comparative evaluation of the results of two widely applied predictive methods.

Prediction of the solar radiation using RBF neural networks and ground-to-sky images

In this study, Artificial Neural Networks are applied to multistep long term solar radiation prediction. The networks are trained as one-step-ahead predictors and iterated over time to obtain multi-step longer term predictions. Auto-regressive and Auto-regressive with exogenous inputs solar radiationmodels are compared, considering cloudiness indices as inputs in the latter case. These indices are obtained through pixel classification of ground-to-sky images. The input-output structure of the neural network models is selected using evolutionary computation methods.

Neural Networks

We present an overview of current research on artificial neural networks, emphasizing a statistical perspective. We view neural networks as parameterized graphs that make probabilistic assumptions about data, and view learning algorithms as methods for finding parameter values that look probable in the light of the data. We discuss basic issues in representation and learning, and treat some of the practical issues that arise in fitting networks to data. We also discuss links between neural networks and the general formalism of graphical models.

Weather-based prediction of anthracnose severity using artificial neural network models

Data were collected and analysed from seven field sites in Australia, Brazil and Colombia on weather conditions and the severity of anthracnose disease of the tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. Disease severity and weather data were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) models developed using data from some or all field sites in Australia and/or South America to predict severity at other sites. Three series of models were developed using different weather summaries. of these, ANN models with weather for the day of disease assessment and the previous 24 h period had the highest prediction success, and models trained on data from all sites within one continent correctly predicted disease severity in the other continent on more than 75% of days; the overall prediction error was 21.9% for the Australian and 22.1% for the South American model. of the six cross-continent ANN models trained on pooled data for five sites from two continents to predict severity for the remaining sixth site, the model developed without data from Planaltina in Brazil was the most accurate, with >85% prediction success, and the model without Carimagua in Colombia was the least accurate, with only 54% success. In common with multiple regression models, moisture-related variables such as rain, leaf surface wetness and variables that influence moisture availability such as radiation and wind on the day of disease severity assessment or the day before assessment were the most important weather variables in all ANN models. A set of weights from the ANN models was used to calculate the overall risk of anthracnose for the various sites. Sites with high and low anthracnose risk are present in both continents, and weather conditions at centres of diversity in Brazil and Colombia do not appear to be more conducive than conditions in Australia to serious anthracnose development.

An approach based on neural networks for identification of fault sections in radial distribution systems

The main objective involved with this paper consists of presenting the results obtained from the application of artificial neural networks and statistical tools in the automatic identification and classification process of faults in electric power distribution systems. The developed techniques to treat the proposed problem have used, in an integrated way, several approaches that can contribute to the successful detection process of faults, aiming that it is carried out in a reliable and safe way. The compilations of the results obtained from practical experiments accomplished in a pilot radial distribution feeder have demonstrated that the developed techniques provide accurate results, identifying and classifying efficiently the several occurrences of faults observed in the feeder.

Artificial neural network model of discharge lamps in the power quality context

This paper presents a methodology for modeling high intensity discharge lamps based on artificial neural networks. The methodology provides a model which is able to represent the device operating in the frequency of distribution systems, facing events related to power quality. With the aid of a data acquisition system to monitor the laboratory experiment, and using $$\text{ MATLAB }^{\textregistered }$$ software, data was obtained for the training of two neural networks. These neural networks, working together, were able to represent with high fidelity the behavior of a discharge lamp. The excellent performance obtained by these models allowed the simulation of a group of lamps in a distribution system with shorter simulation time when compared to mathematical models. This fact justified the application of this family of loads in electric power systems. The representation of the device facing power quality disturbances also proved to be a useful tool for more complex studies in distribution systems. © 2013 Brazilian Society for Automatics - SBA.

Use of uniform designs in combination with neural networks for viral infection process development

This work aimed to compare the predictive capacity of empirical models, based on the uniform design utilization combined to artificial neural networks with respect to classical factorial designs in bioprocess, using as example the rabies virus replication in BHK-21 cells. The viral infection process parameters under study were temperature (34°C, 37°C), multiplicity of infection (0.04, 0.07, 0.1), times of infection, and harvest (24, 48, 72 hours) and the monitored output parameter was viral production. A multilevel factorial experimental design was performed for the study of this system. Fractions of this experimental approach (18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 runs), defined according uniform designs, were used as alternative for modelling through artificial neural network and thereafter an output variable optimization was carried out by means of genetic algorithm methodology. Model prediction capacities for all uniform design approaches under study were better than that found for classical factorial design approach. It was demonstrated that uniform design in combination with artificial neural network could be an efficient experimental approach for modelling complex bioprocess like viral production. For the present study case, 67% of experimental resources were saved when compared to a classical factorial design approach. In the near future, this strategy could replace the established factorial designs used in the bioprocess development activities performed within biopharmaceutical organizations because of the improvements gained in the economics of experimentation that do not sacrifice the quality of decisions.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Neural networks: A principled perspective

Introductory accounts of artificial neural networks often rely for motivation on analogies with models of information processing in biological networks. One limitation of such an approach is that it offers little guidance on how to find optimal algorithms, or how to verify the correct performance of neural network systems. A central goal of this paper is to draw attention to a quite different viewpoint in which neural networks are seen as algorithms for statistical pattern recognition based on a principled, i.e. theoretically well-founded, framework. We illustrate the concept of a principled viewpoint by considering a specific issue concerned with the interpretation of the outputs of a trained network. Finally, we discuss the relevance of such an approach to the issue of the validation and verification of neural network systems.