Initial distribution spread: A density forecasting approach

Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model error limits the value of such efforts. This paper argues for choosing the initial ensemble in order to optimise forecasting performance rather than estimate the true state of the system. Density forecasting and choosing the initial ensemble are treated as one problem. Forecasting performance can be quantified by some scoring rule. In the case of the logarithmic scoring rule, theoretical arguments and empirical results are presented. It turns out that, if the underlying noise dominates model error, we can diagnose the noise spread.

‘Nudging’ energy users: regulatory measures to address the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets

For decades regulators in the energy sector have focused on facilitating the maximisation of energy supply in order to meet demand through liberalisation and removal of market barriers. The debate on climate change has emphasised a new type of risk in the balance between energy demand and supply: excessively high energy demand brings about significantly negative environmental and economic impacts. This is because if a vast number of users is consuming electricity at the same time, energy suppliers have to activate dirty old power plants with higher greenhouse gas emissions and higher system costs. The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market requires a systematic investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper draws on the e-Living Time-Use Survey database to assess the risk of aggregate peak residential electricity demand for European energy markets. Findings highlight in which countries and for what activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is greater. The discussion highlights which approaches energy regulators have started considering to convince users about the risks of consuming too much energy during peak times. These include ‘nudging’ approaches such as the roll-out of smart meters, incentives for shifting the timing of energy consumption, differentiated time-of-use tariffs, regulatory financial incentives and consumption data sharing at the community level.

The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model

A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE) has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated.

The real-time optimisation of DNO owned storage devices on the LV network for peak reduction

Energy storage is a potential alternative to conventional network reinforcementof the low voltage (LV) distribution network to ensure the grid’s infrastructure remainswithin its operating constraints. This paper presents a study on the control of such storagedevices, owned by distribution network operators. A deterministic model predictive control (MPC) controller and a stochastic receding horizon controller (SRHC) are presented, wherethe objective is to achieve the greatest peak reduction in demand, for a given storagedevice specification, taking into account the high level of uncertainty in the prediction of LV demand. The algorithms presented in this paper are compared to a standard set-pointcontroller and bench marked against a control algorithm with a perfect forecast. A specificcase study, using storage on the LV network, is presented, and the results of each algorithmare compared. A comprehensive analysis is then carried out simulating a large number of LV networks of varying numbers of households. The results show that the performance of each algorithm is dependent on the number of aggregated households. However, on a typical aggregation, the novel SRHC algorithm presented in this paper is shown to outperform each of the comparable storage control techniques.

A spatial view of ensemble spread in convection permitting ensembles

With movement toward kilometer-scale ensembles, new techniques are needed for their characterization. A new methodology is presented for detailed spatial ensemble characterization using the fractions skill score (FSS). To evaluate spatial forecast differences, the average and standard deviation are taken of the FSS calculated over all ensemble member–member pairs at different scales and lead times. These methods were found to give important information about the ensemble behavior allowing the identification of useful spatial scales, spinup times for the model, and upscale growth of errors and forecast differences. The ensemble spread was found to be highly dependent on the spatial scales considered and the threshold applied to the field. High thresholds picked out localized and intense values that gave large temporal variability in ensemble spread: local processes and undersampling dominate for these thresholds. For lower thresholds the ensemble spread increases with time as differences between the ensemble members upscale. Two convective cases were investigated based on the Met Office United Model run at 2.2-km resolution. Different ensemble types were considered: ensembles produced using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and an ensemble produced using different model physics configurations. Comparison of the MOGREPS and multiphysics ensembles demonstrated the utility of spatial ensemble evaluation techniques for assessing the impact of different perturbation strategies and the need for assessing spread at different, believable, spatial scales.

Beyond difference: female participation in the Brazilian film revival of the 1990s

In this chapter, I will focus on the female participation in what became known as ‘The Retomada do Cinema Brasileiro’, or the Brazilian Film Revival, by thinking beyond differences of gender, class, age and ethnicity. I will first re-consider the Retomada phenomenon against the backdrop of its historical time, so as to evaluate whether the production boom of the period translated into a creative peak, and, if so, how much of this carried onto the present day. I will then look at the female participation in this phenomenon not just in terms of numerical growth of women film directors, admittedly impressive, but only partially reflective of the drastic changes in the modes of production and address effected by the neoliberal policies introduced in the country in the mid 1990s. I will argue that the most decisive contribution brought about by the rise of women in Brazilian filmmaking has been the spread of team work and shared authorship, as opposed to a mere aspiration to the auteur pantheon, as determined by a notoriously male-oriented tradition. Granted, films focusing on female victimisation were rife during the Retomada period and persist to this day, and they have been, and continue to be, invaluable for the understanding of women’s struggles in the country. However, rather than resorting to feminist readings of representational strategies in these films, I will draw attention to other, presentational aesthetic experiments, open to the documentary contingent and the unpredictable real, which, I argue, suspend the pedagogical character of representational narratives. In order to demonstrate that new theoretical tools are needed to understand the gender powers at play in contemporary world cinema, I will, to conclude, analyse an excerpt of the film, Delicate Crime (Crime delicado, Beto Brant, 2006), where team work comes out as a particularly effective female, and feminist, procedure.

Cosmic shear requirements on the wavelength dependence of telescope point spread functions

Cosmic shear requires high precision measurement of galaxy shapes in the presence of the observational point spread function (PSF) that smears out the image. The PSF must therefore be known for each galaxy to a high accuracy. However, for several reasons, the PSF is usually wavelength dependent; therefore, the differences between the spectral energy distribution of the observed objects introduce further complexity. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the wavelength dependence of the PSF, focusing on instruments in which the PSF size is dominated by the diffraction limit of the telescope and which use broad-band filters for shape measurement. We first calculate biases on cosmological parameter estimation from cosmic shear when the stellar PSF is used uncorrected. Using realistic galaxy and star spectral energy distributions and populations and a simple three-component circular PSF, we find that the colour dependence must be taken into account for the next generation of telescopes. We then consider two different methods for removing the effect: (i) the use of stars of the same colour as the galaxies and (ii) estimation of the galaxy spectral energy distribution using multiple colours and using a telescope model for the PSF. We find that both of these methods correct the effect to levels below the tolerances required for per cent level measurements of dark energy parameters. Comparison of the two methods favours the template-fitting method because its efficiency is less dependent on galaxy redshift than the broad-band colour method and takes full advantage of deeper photometry.

Defect centre responsible for production of 110 degrees C TL peak in quartz

110 degrees C thermoluminescence (TL) peak in quartz is well known due to its pre-dose effect, which is used in dating technique. The generally accepted mechanism for the production of this peak is based on Ge impurity contained in quartz. Its role is to substitute for Si in SiO(4) tetrahedron and under irradiation gives rise to [GeO(4)/e(-)](-) electron centre. Heating for TL read out liberates electron that recombines with hole in [AlO(4)/h]degrees or [H(3)O(4)/h]degrees centres emitting photon. The investigation, carried out on blue quartz, green quartz, black quartz, pink quartz, red quartz, sulphurous quartz, milky quartz, alpha quartz and synthetic quartz, has shown that the 110 degrees C TL peak in all these varieties of quartz has no correlation with the respective Ge content. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements on any of these varieties of quartz revealed a signal with g(1) = 2.0004, g(2) = 1.9986 and g(3) = 1.974 and this signal does not appear to correspond to any known EPR signals in alpha quartz. Furthermore, isothermal decay measurements are carried out on the above mentioned EPR signal and 110 degrees C TL peak in alpha, blue and green quartz. A close correlation has been observed in the decay behavior. A new mechanism is proposed based on an interstitial O(-) centre. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Peak modeling approach to accurate assignment of first-dimension retention times in comprehensive two-dimensional chromatography

Modeling of first-dimension retention of peaks based on modulation phase and period allows reliable prediction of the modulated peak distributions generated in the comprehensive two-dimensional chromatography experiment. By application of the inverse process, it is also possible to use the profile of the modulated peaks (their heights or areas) to predict the shape and parameters of the original input chromatographic band (retention time, standard deviation, area) for the primary column dimension. This allows an accurate derivation of the firstdimension retention time (RSD 0.02%) which is equal to that for the non-modulated experiment, rather than relying upon the retention time of the major modulated peak generated by the modulation process (RSD 0.16%). The latter metric can produce a retention time that differs by at least the modulation period employed in the experiment, which displays a discontinuity in the retention time vs modulation phase plot at the point of the 180° out-ofphase modulation. In contrast, the new procedure proposed here gives a result that is essentially independent of modulation phase and period. This permits an accurate value to be assigned to the first-dimension retention. The proposed metric accounts for the time on the seconddimension, the phase of the distribution, and the holdup time that the sampled solute is retained in the modulating interface. The approach may also be based on the largest three modulated peaks, rather than all modulated peaks. This simplifies the task of assigning the retention time with little loss of precision in band standard deviation or retention time, provided that these peaks are not all overloaded in the first or second dimension.

A mathematical model for the spread of Strepotococcus pneumoniae with transmission dependent on serotype

We examine a mathematical model for the transmission of Streptococcus Pneumoniae amongst young children when the carriage transmission coefficient depends on the serotype. Carriage means pneumococcal colonization. There are two sequence types (STs) spreading in a population each of which can be expressed as one of two serotypes. We derive the differential equation model for the carriage spread and perform an equilibrium and global stability analysis on it. A key parameter is the effective reproduction number R e. For R e ≤ 1,  there is only the carriage-free equilibrium (CFE) and the carriage will die out whatever be the starting values. For R e > 1, unless the effective reproduction numbers of the two STs are equal, in addition to the CFE there are two carriage equilibria, one for each ST. If the ST with the largest effective reproduction number is initially present, then in the long-term the carriage will tend to the corresponding equilibrium.

A mathematical model for the spread of streptococcus pneumoniae with transmission due to sequence type

This paper discusses a simple mathematical model to describe the spread of Streptococcus pneumoniae. We suppose that the transmission of the bacterium is determined by multi-locus sequence type. The model includes vaccination and is designed to examine what happens in a vaccinated population if MLSTs can exist as both vaccine and non vaccine serotypes with capsular switching possible from the former to the latter. We start off with a discussion of Streptococcus pneumoniae and a review of previous work. We propose a simple mathematical model with two sequence types and then perform an equilibrium and (global) stability analysis on the model. We show that in general there are only three equilibria, the carriage-free equilibrium and two carriage equilibria. If the effective reproduction number Re is less than or equal to one, then the carriage will die out. If Re > 1, then the carriage will tend to the carriage equilibrium corresponding to the multi-locus sequence type with the largest transmission parameter. In the case where both multi-locus sequence types have the same transmission parameter then there is a line of carriage equilibria. Provided that carriage is initially present then as time progresses the carriage will approach a point on this line. The results generalize to many competing sequence types. Simulations with realistic parameter values confirm the analytical results.

To shut them up or to clarify: restraining the spread of rumors in online social networks

Restraining the spread of rumors in online social networks (OSNs) has long been an important but difficult problem to be addressed. Currently, there are mainly two types of methods 1) blocking rumors at the most influential users or community bridges, or 2) spreading truths to clarify the rumors. Each method claims the better performance among all the others according to their own considerations and environments. However, there must be one standing out of the rest. In this paper, we focus on this part of work. The difficulty is that there does not exist a universal standard to evaluate them. In order to address this problem, we carry out a series of empirical and theoretical analysis on the basis of the introduced mathematical model. Based on this mathematical platform, each method will be evaluated by using real OSN data.We have done three types of analysis in this work. First, we compare all the measures of locating important users. The results suggest that the degree and betweenness measures outperform all the others in the Facebook network. Second, we analyze the method of the truth clarification method, and find that this method has a long-term performance while the degree measure performs well only in the early stage. Third, in order to leverage these two methods, we further explore the strategy of different methods working together and their equivalence. Given a fixed budget in the real world, our analysis provides a potential solution to find out a better strategy by integrating both types of methods together. From both the academic and technical perspective, the work in this paper is an important step towards the most practical and optimal strategies of restraining rumors in OSNs.

Line-pack management for producing electric power on peak periods

The distribution of natural gas is carried out by means of long ducts and intermediate compression stations to compensate the pressure drops due to friction. The natural gas compressors are usually driven by an electric motor or a gas turbine system, offering possibilities for energy management, one of these consisting in generating energy for use in-plant or to commercialize as independent power producer. It can be done by matching the natural gas demand, at the minimum pressure allowed in the reception point, and the storage capacity of the feed duct with the maximum compressor capacity, for storing the natural gas at the maximum permitted pressure. This allows the gas turbine to drive an electric generator during the time in which the decreasing pressure in duct is above the minimum acceptable by the sink unit. In this paper, a line-pack management analysis is done for an existing compression station considering its actual demand curve for determining the economic feasibility of maintaining the gas turbine system driver generating electricity in a peak and off-peak tariff structure. The potential of cost reduction from the point of view of energy resources (natural gas and electric costs) is also analyzed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Invertebrates from the Low Head Member (Polonez Cove Formation, Oligocene) at Vaureal Peak, King George Island, West Antarctica

Eight taxa of marine invertebrates, including two new bivalve species, are described from the Low Head Member of the Polonez Cove Formation (latest early Oligocene) cropping out in the Vaureal Peak area, King George Island, West Antarctica. The fossil assemblage includes representatives of Brachiopoda (genera Neothyris sp. and Liothyrella sp.), Bivalvia (Adamussium auristriatum sp. nov., ?Adamussium cf. A. alanbeui Jonkers, and Limatula (Antarctolima) ferraziana sp. nov.), Bryozoa, Polychaeta (serpulid tubes) and Echinodermata. Specimens occur in debris flows deposits of the Low Head Member, as part of a fan delta setting in a high energy, shallow marine environment. Liothyrella sp., Adamussium auristriatum sp. nov. and Limatula ferraziana sp. nov. are among the oldest records for these genera in King George Island. In spite of their restrict number and diversification, bivalves and brachiopods from this study display an overall dispersal pattern that roughly fits in the clockwise circulation of marine currents around Antarctica accomplished in two steps. The first followed the opening of the Tasmanian Gateway at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, along the eastern margin of Antarctica, and the second took place in post-Palaeogene time, following the Drake Passage opening between Antarctic Peninsula and South America, along the western margin of Antarctica.