Alianças e desenvolvimento de políticas para o desenvolvimento local: imbricações na mineração de alumínio em Oriximiná-PA

Aborda, por um lado, a relação entre a economia local no Município de Oriximiná - PA e sua inserção no Comércio Internacional do minério de alumínio. E, por outro, os mecanismos de interação e alianças entre os atores locais público e privado com o setor minerador de alumínio, representado pela Companhia MRN, vis à vis a consecução de um projeto de desenvolvimento local em bases endógenas. O estudo busca compreender como a interação entre interesses públicos/privados, coletivos/individuais, orgânicos/corporativos em âmbito local influenciam no desenvolvimento endógeno do Município. Não obstante, avaliar a dimensão das restrições estruturais, condicionadas pela dinâmica das relações comerciais no setor mundial do minério de Alumínio, aos processos internos de articulação para o desenvolvimento local. O Problema proposto está em compreender como as oportunidades e restrição da explotação de uma mina world class impulsiona processos de desenvolvimento local. Partindo-se da Nova Teoria Econômica aliada à Teoria do Comércio Internacional e Geografia Econômica, buscou-se delinear os parâmetros de inserção da economia mineradora do alumínio local no cenário internacional e suas inter-relações resultantes, sejam estas sob o aspecto tecnológico ou mercadológico. Numa perspectiva local, procurou-se identificar os processos interativos e seu grau de convergência entre Setor Público (via Plano Diretor Municipal) com vistas à concretização de um projeto de desenvolvimento endógeno mediado pela formação de alianças (Clusters) que atendessem às suas respectivas exigências tecnológica, econômica e institucional. Para tanto, o trabalho recorreu às Teorias do Crescimento e Desenvolvimento econômico e dos Sistemas para explicitar os mecanismos que regem as interações entre os atores locais e, em última análise, determinam suas ações sociais no processo de desenvolvimento endógeno. O método adotado é o hipotético-dedutivo utilizando-se instrumentos de coleta de dados secundários e primários. Através de um processo de modelagem computacional e, recorrendo aos Relatórios Fiscais da Prefeitura de Oriximiná e Contábeis da Mineração Rio do Norte buscou-se o aprofundamento sobre a natureza e aplicação dos recursos gerenciados por ambas Instituições. Desenvolve-se ainda, um modelo representativo da dinâmica do desenvolvimento endógeno local tendo o PIB Municipal per capita como proxy através do método de análise multivariada utilizando a técnica da regressão linear múltipla. Desenvolve-se também uma análise da autocorrelação da economia de Oriximiná com o seu entorno a partir da técnica de processamento de dados espaciais geograficamente referenciados bem como a técnica de acessibilidade locacional de Oriximiná. A apresentação dos resultados utiliza modelos simbólicos, tabelas e gráficos diversos. A conclusão é de que a atividade minerária encontra-se descolada do processo de crescimento local por não produzir spillover e por não internalizar o grosso da sua renda no Município dada sua estratégia competitiva. Contudo, a dinâmica local também sofre restrições por conta de sua localização espacial à margem do eixo econômico Regional e pela baixa capacidade empreenditiva e articulatória demonstrada pela administração pública local.

Implicações nacionais da integração regional: as eleições diretas do parlamento do Mercosul

O processo de institucionalização do MERCOSUL verificado nos últimos anos aumentou o peso da integração regional nas políticas internas dos Estados-membros. No caso brasileiro, o projeto de lei que regulamenta as eleições diretas para o Parlamento do MERCOSUL (Parlasul) em 2014 é um exemplo dessa influência, porque inclui aspectos que estão relacionados às discussões acerca da reforma do sistema político brasileiro, tema gerador de intenso debate e polêmica dentro do Congresso Nacional. Este artigo discute os possíveis impactos que a sua aprovação terá na condução da reforma política no Brasil, partindo da hipótese de que o referido projeto representa um transbordamento da reforma política brasileira para o plano regional. Supomos que sua aprovação pode se tornar um ensaio da reforma política planejada, ao executar no plano regional mudanças ainda em discussão no legislativo brasileiro. Lembramos que a decisão e aprovação dos critérios para realização das eleições diretas do Parlasul é de competência de cada Estado-membro.

Implicações nacionais da integração regional: as eleições diretas do Parlamento do Mercosul

The process of institutionalization of MERCOSUR in recent years has increased the weight of regional integration in the internal policies of the Member States. In the Brazilian case, the bill that regulates direct elections for the MERCOSUR Parliament (Parlasul) in 2014 is an example of this influence, because it includes aspects that are related to discussions on the reform of the Brazilian political system, generating intense debate and controversy within the Congress. This article discusses the possible impacts that its adoption will have on the conduct of political reform in Brazil, on the assumption that this project represents a spillover of political reform for Brazilian regional plan. We assume that its approval can become a test of political reform planned to perform at the regional changes still under discussion in the brazilian legislature. We remind that the decision and approval of the criteria for the Parlasul direct elections is a competence of each Member-State.

Estudos parasitológicos em cães domésticos errantes e carnívoros selvagens generalistas no Parque Nacional do Iguaçu, Foz do Iguaçu

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Wildlife Tuberculosis in South African Conservation Areas: Implications and Challenges

Tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, was first diagnosed in African buffalo in South Africa’s Kruger National Park in 1990. Over the past 15 years the disease has spread northwards leaving only the most northern buffalo herds unaffected. Evidence suggests that 10 other small and large mammalian species, including large predators, are spillover hosts. Wildlife tuberculosis has also been diagnosed in several adjacent private game reserves and in the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, the third largest game reserve in South Africa. The tuberculosis epidemic has a number of implications, for which the full effect of some might only be seen in the long-term. Potential negative long-term effects on the population dynamics of certain social animal species and the direct threat for the survival of endangered species pose particular problems for wildlife conservationists. On the other hand, the risk of spillover infection to neighboring communal cattle raises concerns about human health at the wildlife–livestock–human interface, not only along the western boundary of Kruger National Park, but also with regards to the joint development of the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area with Zimbabwe and Mozambique. From an economic point of view, wildlife tuberculosis has resulted in national and international trade restrictions for affected species. The lack of diagnostic tools for most species and the absence of an effective vaccine make it currently impossible to contain and control this disease within an infected free-ranging ecosystem. Veterinary researchers and policy-makers have recognized the need to intensify research on this disease and the need to develop tools for control, initially targeting buffalo and lion.

Emergence of Diseases From Wildlife Reservoirs

Interest in the epidemiology of emerging diseases of humans and livestock as they relate to wildlife has increased greatly over the past several decades. Many factors, most anthropogenic, have facilitated the emergence of diseases from wildlife. Some livestock diseases have ‘‘spilled over’’ to wildlife and then ‘‘spilled back’’ to livestock. When a population is exposed to an infectious agent, depending on an interaction of factors involving the host, agent, and environment, the population may be resistant to infection or may become a dead-end host, a spillover host, or a maintenance host. Each exposure is unique; the same species of host and agent may respond differently in different situations. Management actions that affect the environment and behavior of a potential host animal may allow the emergence of a new or as yet undetected disease. There are many barriers in preventing, detecting, monitoring and managing wildlife diseases. These may include political and legal hurdles, lack of knowledge about many diseases of wildlife, the absence of basic data on wildlife populations, difficulties with surveillance, and logistical constraints. Increasing interaction between wildlife and humans or domestic animals may lead to disease emergence and require innovative methods and strategies for disease surveillance and management in wildlife.

Epizootiologic Survey of Mycobacterium Bovis in Wildlife and Farm Environments in Northern Michigan

Bovine tuberculosis (bovine TB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, has reemerged in northern Michigan, USA, with detections in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in 1994 and in cattle in 1998. Since then, significant efforts have been directed toward reducing deer densities in the area in the hopes of reducing the bovine TB prevalence rate in deer and eliminating spillover of the disease into cattle. Despite the success of the efforts to reduce deer densities, additional cattle herds have become infected. Other mammals can be infected with M. bovis, and some carnivores and omnivores had been found to be infected with the disease in northern Michigan, USA. We conducted a multiyear surveillance effort to detect bovine TB in wild species of mammals in the Michigan, USA, outbreak area. From 2002 to 2004, tissue samples from 1,031 individual animals of 32 species were collected, processed, and cultured for M. bovis. Only 10 (1.0%) were culture-positive for M. bovis (five raccoons [Procyon lotor], four opossums [Didelphis virginiana], and one grey fox [Urocyon cinereoargenteus]). We also found two raccoons and four opossums to be positive for Mycobacterium avium. We collected 503 environmental samples from cattle farms recently identified as bovine TB positive; none yielded positive M. bovis culture results. Finally, we used infrared cameras to document wildlife use of four barns in the area. Many avian and mammalian species of wildlife were observed, with raccoons being the most commonly observed species. This surveillance study identified no new wildlife species that should be considered significant reservoirs of bovine TB in the outbreak area in northern Michigan, USA. However, the relatively high, apparent bovine TB prevalence rates in some carnivorous and omnivorous species, their relatively long life spans, and their frequent use of barns, suggests that removal of raccoons, opossums, foxes, and coyotes (Canis latrans) should be considered when a newly infected farm is depopulated of cattle.

ESSAYS ON INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SPILLOVERS

The dissertation consists of three essays on international research and development spillovers. In the first essay, I investigate the degree to which differences in institutional arrangements among Sub-Saharan African countries determine the extent of benefits they derive from foreign research and development spillovers. In particular, I compare the international research and development spillovers for English common law and French civil law Sub-Saharan African countries. I show that differences in the legal origin of the company law or commercial codes in these countries may reflect the extent of barriers they place in the paths of firms that engage in the investment process. To tests this hypothesis, I constructed foreign R&D spillovers variable using imports as weights and employed the endogenous growth framework to estimate elasticities of productivity with respect to foreign R&D spillovers for a sample of 17 English common law and French Civil law Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980-2004. My results find support for the hypothesis. In particular, foreign R&D spillovers were higher in the English common law countries than in the French civil law countries. In the second essay, I examine the question of whether technical cooperation grants and overseas development assistance grants induce R&D knowledge spillovers in Sub-Saharan African countries. I test this hypothesis using data for 11 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980-2004. I constructed foreign R&D spillovers using the technical cooperation grants and overseas development assistance grants as weights and employed the endogenous growth framework to provide quantitative estimates of foreign R&D spillover effects in 11 Sub-Saharan African countries. I find that technical cooperation grants and overseas development assistance grants are major mechanisms through which returns to R&D investments in G7 countries flows to Sub-Saharan African countries. However, their influence has declined over the years. Finally, the third essay tests the hypothesis that the relationship between a country's exporters and their foreign purchasing agents may lead to the exchange of ideas and thereby improve the manufacturing process and productivity in the exporting country. I test this hypothesis using disaggregated export data from OECD countries. The foreign R&D capital stock in this essay was constructed as exports weighted average of domestic R&D capital stock. I find empirical support for the hypothesis. In particular, capital goods exports generate more learning effects and therefore best explain productivity in OECD countries than non-capital goods exports.

The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil

We examine the impact of Brazil's Bolsa Escola/Familia program on Brazilian children's education outcomes. Bolsa provides cash payments to poor households if their children (ages 6 to 15) are enrolled in school. Using school census data to compare changes in enrollment, dropping out and grade promotion across schools that adopted Bolsa at different times, we estimate that the program has: increased enrollment by about 5.5% (6.5%) in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); lowered dropout rates by 0.5 (0.4) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); and raised grade promotion rates by 0.9 (0.3) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8). About one third of Brazil's children participate in Bolsa, so assuming no spillover effects onto non-participants implies that Bolsa's impacts are three times higher than these estimates. However, simple calculations using enrollment impacts suggest that Bolsa's benefits in terms of increased wages may not exceed its costs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Infant mortality in Brazil, 1980-2000: A spatial panel data analysis

Background: Infant mortality is an important measure of human development, related to the level of welfare of a society. In order to inform public policy, various studies have tried to identify the factors that influence, at an aggregated level, infant mortality. The objective of this paper is to analyze the regional pattern of infant mortality in Brazil, evaluating the effect of infrastructure, socio-economic, and demographic variables to understand its distribution across the country. Methods: Regressions including socio-economic and living conditions variables are conducted in a structure of panel data. More specifically, a spatial panel data model with fixed effects and a spatial error autocorrelation structure is used to help to solve spatial dependence problems. The use of a spatial modeling approach takes into account the potential presence of spillovers between neighboring spatial units. The spatial units considered are Minimum Comparable Areas, defined to provide a consistent definition across Census years. Data are drawn from the 1980, 1991 and 2000 Census of Brazil, and from data collected by the Ministry of Health (DATASUS). In order to identify the influence of health care infrastructure, variables related to the number of public and private hospitals are included. Results: The results indicate that the panel model with spatial effects provides the best fit to the data. The analysis confirms that the provision of health care infrastructure and social policy measures (e. g. improving education attainment) are linked to reduced rates of infant mortality. An original finding concerns the role of spatial effects in the analysis of IMR. Spillover effects associated with health infrastructure and water and sanitation facilities imply that there are regional benefits beyond the unit of analysis. Conclusions: A spatial modeling approach is important to produce reliable estimates in the analysis of panel IMR data. Substantively, this paper contributes to our understanding of the physical and social factors that influence IMR in the case of a developing country.

Identificação e análise espacial das aglomerações produtivas do setor de confecções na região Sul

O artigo procura identificar e analisar a evolução das aglomerações produtivas do setor confeccionista no Sul do Brasil. Dois fatores alicerçam o procedimento metodológico: proximidade geográfica e concentração setorial, combinados por Análise Espacial de Concentração. O primeiro, proximidade geográfica, por meio da Análise Exploratória de Dados Espaciais, e o segundo, concentração setorial, por meio da construção do índice de Concentração normalizado. Os resultados evidenciaram a transposição positiva dos aglomerados. Além disso, verificou-se evolução para o Estado do Paraná, tanto em transborda mento como em concentração espacial. Observou-se estabilidade em spillover, mas com forte concentração, no Estado de Santa Catarina.

Essays on the political economy of European integration

Recently, a rising interest in political and economic integration/disintegration issues has been developed in the political economy field. This growing strand of literature partly draws on traditional issues of fiscal federalism and optimum public good provision and focuses on a trade-off between the benefits of centralization, arising from economies of scale or externalities, and the costs of harmonizing policies as a consequence of the increased heterogeneity of individual preferences in an international union or in a country composed of at least two regions. This thesis stems from this strand of literature and aims to shed some light on two highly relevant aspects of the political economy of European integration. The first concerns the role of public opinion in the integration process; more precisely, how economic benefits and costs of integration shape citizens' support for European Union (EU) membership. The second is the allocation of policy competences among different levels of government: European, national and regional. Chapter 1 introduces the topics developed in this thesis by reviewing the main recent theoretical developments in the political economy analysis of integration processes. It is structured as follows. First, it briefly surveys a few relevant articles on economic theories of integration and disintegration processes (Alesina and Spolaore 1997, Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina et al. 2000, Casella and Feinstein 2002) and discusses their relevance for the study of the impact of economic benefits and costs on public opinion attitude towards the EU. Subsequently, it explores the links existing between such political economy literature and theories of fiscal federalism, especially with regard to normative considerations concerning the optimal allocation of competences in a union. Chapter 2 firstly proposes a model of citizens’ support for membership of international unions, with explicit reference to the EU; subsequently it tests the model on a panel of EU countries. What are the factors that influence public opinion support for the European Union (EU)? In international relations theory, the idea that citizens' support for the EU depends on material benefits deriving from integration, i.e. whether European integration makes individuals economically better off (utilitarian support), has been common since the 1970s, but has never been the subject of a formal treatment (Hix 2005). A small number of studies in the 1990s have investigated econometrically the link between national economic performance and mass support for European integration (Eichenberg and Dalton 1993; Anderson and Kalthenthaler 1996), but only making informal assumptions. The main aim of Chapter 2 is thus to propose and test our model with a view to providing a more complete and theoretically grounded picture of public support for the EU. Following theories of utilitarian support, we assume that citizens are in favour of membership if they receive economic benefits from it. To develop this idea, we propose a simple political economic model drawing on the recent economic literature on integration and disintegration processes. The basic element is the existence of a trade-off between the benefits of centralisation and the costs of harmonising policies in presence of heterogeneous preferences among countries. The approach we follow is that of the recent literature on the political economy of international unions and the unification or break-up of nations (Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina and Wacziarg 1999, Alesina et al. 2001, 2005a, to mention only the relevant). The general perspective is that unification provides returns to scale in the provision of public goods, but reduces each member state’s ability to determine its most favoured bundle of public goods. In the simple model presented in Chapter 2, support for membership of the union is increasing in the union’s average income and in the loss of efficiency stemming from being outside the union, and decreasing in a country’s average income, while increasing heterogeneity of preferences among countries points to a reduced scope of the union. Afterwards we empirically test the model with data on the EU; more precisely, we perform an econometric analysis employing a panel of member countries over time. The second part of Chapter 2 thus tries to answer the following question: does public opinion support for the EU really depend on economic factors? The findings are broadly consistent with our theoretical expectations: the conditions of the national economy, differences in income among member states and heterogeneity of preferences shape citizens’ attitude towards their country’s membership of the EU. Consequently, this analysis offers some interesting policy implications for the present debate about ratification of the European Constitution and, more generally, about how the EU could act in order to gain more support from the European public. Citizens in many member states are called to express their opinion in national referenda, which may well end up in rejection of the Constitution, as recently happened in France and the Netherlands, triggering a European-wide political crisis. These events show that nowadays understanding public attitude towards the EU is not only of academic interest, but has a strong relevance for policy-making too. Chapter 3 empirically investigates the link between European integration and regional autonomy in Italy. Over the last few decades, the double tendency towards supranationalism and regional autonomy, which has characterised some European States, has taken a very interesting form in this country, because Italy, besides being one of the founding members of the EU, also implemented a process of decentralisation during the 1970s, further strengthened by a constitutional reform in 2001. Moreover, the issue of the allocation of competences among the EU, the Member States and the regions is now especially topical. The process leading to the drafting of European Constitution (even if then it has not come into force) has attracted much attention from a constitutional political economy perspective both on a normative and positive point of view (Breuss and Eller 2004, Mueller 2005). The Italian parliament has recently passed a new thorough constitutional reform, still to be approved by citizens in a referendum, which includes, among other things, the so called “devolution”, i.e. granting the regions exclusive competence in public health care, education and local police. Following and extending the methodology proposed in a recent influential article by Alesina et al. (2005b), which only concentrated on the EU activity (treaties, legislation, and European Court of Justice’s rulings), we develop a set of quantitative indicators measuring the intensity of the legislative activity of the Italian State, the EU and the Italian regions from 1973 to 2005 in a large number of policy categories. By doing so, we seek to answer the following broad questions. Are European and regional legislations substitutes for state laws? To what extent are the competences attributed by the European treaties or the Italian Constitution actually exerted in the various policy areas? Is their exertion consistent with the normative recommendations from the economic literature about their optimum allocation among different levels of government? The main results show that, first, there seems to be a certain substitutability between EU and national legislations (even if not a very strong one), but not between regional and national ones. Second, the EU concentrates its legislative activity mainly in international trade and agriculture, whilst social policy is where the regions and the State (which is also the main actor in foreign policy) are more active. Third, at least two levels of government (in some cases all of them) are significantly involved in the legislative activity in many sectors, even where the rationale for that is, at best, very questionable, indicating that they actually share a larger number of policy tasks than that suggested by the economic theory. It appears therefore that an excessive number of competences are actually shared among different levels of government. From an economic perspective, it may well be recommended that some competences be shared, but only when the balance between scale or spillover effects and heterogeneity of preferences suggests so. When, on the contrary, too many levels of government are involved in a certain policy area, the distinction between their different responsibilities easily becomes unnecessarily blurred. This may not only leads to a slower and inefficient policy-making process, but also risks to make it too complicate to understand for citizens, who, on the contrary, should be able to know who is really responsible for a certain policy when they vote in national,local or European elections or in referenda on national or European constitutional issues.

Welfare provision in Sweden and the dominant position of the Sap

There have been almost fifty years since Harry Eckstein' s classic monograph, A Theory of Stable Democracy (Princeton, 1961), where he sketched out the basic tenets of the “congruence theory”, which was to become one of the most important and innovative contributions to understanding democratic rule. His next work, Division and Cohesion in Democracy, (Princeton University Press: 1966) is designed to serve as a plausibility probe for this 'theory' (ftn.) and is a case study of a Northern democratic system, Norway. What is more, this line of his work best exemplifies the contribution Eckstein brought to the methodology of comparative politics through his seminal article, “ “Case Study and Theory in Political Science” ” (in Greenstein and Polsby, eds., Handbook of Political Science, 1975), on the importance of the case study as an approach to empirical theory. This article demonstrates the special utility of “crucial case studies” in testing theory, thereby undermining the accepted wisdom in comparative research that the larger the number of cases the better. Although not along the same lines, but shifting the case study unit of research, I intend to take up here the challenge and build upon an equally unique political system, the Swedish one. Bearing in mind the peculiarities of the Swedish political system, my unit of analysis is going to be further restricted to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, the Svenska Arbetare Partiet. However, my research stays within the methodological framework of the case study theory inasmuch as it focuses on a single political system and party. The Swedish SAP endurance in government office and its electoral success throughout half a century (ftn. As of the 1991 election, there were about 56 years - more than half century - of interrupted social democratic "reign" in Sweden.) are undeniably a performance no other Social Democrat party has yet achieved in democratic conditions. Therefore, it is legitimate to inquire about the exceptionality of this unique political power combination. Which were the different components of this dominance power position, which made possible for SAP's governmental office stamina? I will argue here that it was the end-product of a combination of multifarious factors such as a key position in the party system, strong party leadership and organization, a carefully designed strategy regarding class politics and welfare policy. My research is divided into three main parts, the historical incursion, the 'welfare' part and the 'environment' part. The first part is a historical account of the main political events and issues, which are relevant for my case study. Chapter 2 is devoted to the historical events unfolding in the 1920-1960 period: the Saltsjoebaden Agreement, the series of workers' strikes in the 1920s and SAP's inception. It exposes SAP's ascent to power in the mid 1930s and the party's ensuing strategies for winning and keeping political office, that is its economic program and key economic goals. The following chapter - chapter 3 - explores the next period, i.e. the period from 1960s to 1990s and covers the party's troubled political times, its peak and the beginnings of the decline. The 1960s are relevant for SAP's planning of a long term economic strategy - the Rehn Meidner model, a new way of macroeconomic steering, based on the Keynesian model, but adapted to the new economic realities of welfare capitalist societies. The second and third parts of this study develop several hypotheses related to SAP's 'dominant position' (endurance in politics and in office) and test them afterwards. Mainly, the twin issues of economics and environment are raised and their political relevance for the party analyzed. On one hand, globalization and its spillover effects over the Swedish welfare system are important causal factors in explaining the transformative social-economic challenges the party had to put up with. On the other hand, Europeanization and environmental change influenced to a great deal SAP's foreign policy choices and its domestic electoral strategies. The implications of globalization on the Swedish welfare system will make the subject of two chapters - chapters four and five, respectively, whereupon the Europeanization consequences will be treated at length in the third part of this work - chapters six and seven, respectively. Apparently, at first sight, the link between foreign policy and electoral strategy is difficult to prove and uncanny, in the least. However, in the SAP's case there is a bulk of literature and public opinion statistical data able to show that governmental domestic policy and party politics are in a tight dependence to foreign policy decisions and sovereignty issues. Again, these country characteristics and peculiar causal relationships are outlined in the first chapters and explained in the second and third parts. The sixth chapter explores the presupposed relationship between Europeanization and environmental policy, on one hand, and SAP's environmental policy formulation and simultaneous agenda-setting at the international level, on the other hand. This chapter describes Swedish leadership in environmental policy formulation on two simultaneous fronts and across two different time spans. The last chapter, chapter eight - while trying to develop a conclusion, explores the alternative theories plausible in explaining the outlined hypotheses and points out the reasons why these theories do not fit as valid alternative explanation to my systemic corporatism thesis as the main causal factor determining SAP's 'dominant position'. Among the alternative theories, I would consider Traedgaardh L. and Bo Rothstein's historical exceptionalism thesis and the public opinion thesis, which alone are not able to explain the half century social democratic endurance in government in the Swedish case.

Modelli Gravitazionali per l'analisi del Commercio Internazionale

Il modello gravitazionale e' ormai diventato un "cavallo da battaglia" in economia internazionle ed e' comunemente utilizzato nella determinazione dei flussi commerciali. Recentemente, molti studi hanno mostrato l'importanza della dipendenza spaziale, che va' a considerare quegli effetti dovuti al cosiddetto "third country". Intervengono a questo scopo la modellistica e le tecniche di stima di Econometria Spaziale. Verra' fatto uso di tali tecniche allo scopo di stimare con un modello gravitazionale spaziale il commercio internazionale tra paesi dell'OCSE per un panel di 22 anni. L'obiettivo e' quindi duplice: da un lato, si andra' ad applicare le piu' moderne tecniche di Econometria Spaziale, in un campo in cui tali contributi scarseggiano. Dall'altro lato,verra' fornita una interpretazione del comportamento del commercio internazionale tra paesi dell'OCSE, approfondendo gli aspetti relativi all'effetto del"third country" e del fenomeno migratorio. Inoltre , viene proposta un'analisi che ha lo scopo di validare l'ipotesi di omissione della distanza dal modello gravitazione strutturale.

Running Hot and Cold: Economic Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America by Sector

This article examines the effects of market–oriented economic reforms on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Latin America from 1985 to 2006. In contrast with most existing scholarship, we disaggregate FDI into its destination in the primary resource, manufacturing, and service sectors allowing us to determine that different kinds of investments exhibit distinct behavior. Notably, manufacturing FDI appears to be erratic; previous investment is not a predictor of current investment. FDI across sectors is associated with varying policy environments, with service and primary resource investment attracted to hosts with policies associated with more stable economic and political contexts. Overall, manufacturing FDI appears to function more like “hot” portfolio investment and is less likely to provide some of the positive spillover effects thought to be associated with more permanent FDI. These findings have an array of implications for economic, development, and industrial policies throughout Latin America and the developing world.