Plant distribution and climate data across western North America

Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations) - despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region-to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as32% of species shifting upward or downward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction of distribution limit shifts was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species shifted upward at their upper elevational limit when snowfall declined at slower rates and minimum temperatures increased. By contrast, species shifted upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased or both temperature and precipitation decreased. Our results suggest that future species' elevational distribution shifts will be complex, depending on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

Mercury species concentrations near Casey station, Antarctica and along the SR3 CASO-GEOTRACES transect

We present here the first mercury speciation study in the water column of the Southern Ocean, using a high-resolution south-to-north section (27 stations from 65.50°S to 44.00°S) with up to 15 depths (0-4440 m) between Antarctica and Tasmania (Australia) along the 140°E meridian. In addition, in order to explore the role of sea ice in Hg cycling, a study of mercury speciation in the 'snow-sea ice-seawater' continuum was conducted at a coastal site, near the Australian Casey station (66.40°S; 101.14°E). In the open ocean waters, total Hg (Hg(T)) concentrations varied from 0.63 to 2.76 pmol/L with 'transient-type' vertical profiles and a latitudinal distribution suggesting an atmospheric mercury source south of the Southern Polar Front (SPF) and a surface removal north of the Subantartic Front (SAF). Slightly higher mean Hg(T) concentrations (1.35 ± 0.39 pmol/L) were measured in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) compared to Antarctic Intermediate water (AAIW) (1.15 ± 0.22 pmol/L). Labile Hg (Hg(R)) concentrations varied from 0.01 to 2.28 pmol/L, with a distribution showing that the Hg(T) enrichment south of the SPF consisted mainly of Hg(R) (67 ± 23%), whereas, in contrast, the percentage was half that in surface waters north of PFZ (33 ± 23%). Methylated mercury species (MeHg(T)) concentrations ranged from 0.02 to 0.86 pmol/L. All vertical MeHg(T) profiles exhibited roughly the same pattern, with low concentrations observed in the surface layer and increasing concentrations with depth up to an intermediate depth maximum. As for Hg(T), low mean MeHg(T) concentrations were associated with AAIW, and higher ones with AABW. The maximum of MeHg(T) concentration at each station was systematically observed within the oxygen minimum zone, with a statistically significant MeHg(T) vs Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) relationship (p <0.001). The proportion of Hg(T) as methylated species was lower than 5% in the surface waters, around 50% in deep waters below 1000 m, reaching a maximum of 78% south of the SPF. At Casey coastal station Hg(T) and Hg(R) concentrations found in the 'snow-sea ice-seawater' continuum were one order of magnitude higher than those measured in open ocean waters. The distribution of Hg(T) there suggests an atmospheric Hg deposition with snow and a fractionation process during sea ice formation, which excludes Hg from the ice with a parallel Hg enrichment of brine, probably concurring with the Hg enrichment of AABW observed in the open ocean waters. Contrastingly, MeHg(T) concentrations in the sea ice environment were in the same range as in the open ocean waters, remaining below 0.45 pmol/L. The MeHg(T) vertical profile through the continuum suggests different sources, including atmosphere, seawater and methylation in basal ice. Whereas Hg(T) concentrations in the water samples collected between the Antarctic continent and Tasmania are comparable to recent measurements made in the other parts of the World Ocean (e.g., Soerensen et al., 2010; doi:10.1021/es903839n), the Hg species distribution suggests distinct features in the Southern Ocean Hg cycle: (i) a net atmospheric Hg deposition on surface water near the ice edge, (ii) the Hg enrichment in brine during sea ice formation, and (iii) a net methylation of Hg south of the SPF.

Detection histories for eight species of Amazona parrots in Venezuela during the NeoMaps bird surveys in 2010

Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.

Climate sensitivity across marine domains of life: limits to evolutionary adaptation shape species interactions, supplementary material

Organisms in all domains, Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya will respond to climate change with differential vulnerabilities resulting in shifts in species distribution, coexistence, and interactions. The identification of unifying principles of organism functioning across all domains would facilitate a cause and effect understanding of such changes and their implications for ecosystem shifts. For example, the functional specialization of all organisms in limited temperature ranges leads us to ask for unifying functional reasons. Organisms also specialize in either anoxic or various oxygen ranges, with animals and plants depending on high oxygen levels. Here, we identify thermal ranges, heat limits of growth, and critically low (hypoxic) oxygen concentrations as proxies of tolerance in a meta-analysis of data available for marine organisms, with special reference to domain-specific limits. For an explanation of the patterns and differences observed, we define and quantify a proxy for organismic complexity across species from all domains. Rising complexity causes heat (and hypoxia) tolerances to decrease from Archaea to Bacteria to uni- and then multicellular Eukarya. Within and across domains, taxon-specific tolerance limits likely reflect ultimate evolutionary limits of its species to acclimatization and adaptation. We hypothesize that rising taxon-specific complexities in structure and function constrain organisms to narrower environmental ranges. Low complexity as in Archaea and some Bacteria provide life options in extreme environments. In the warmest oceans, temperature maxima reach and will surpass the permanent limits to the existence of multicellular animals, plants and unicellular phytoplankter. Smaller, less complex unicellular Eukarya, Bacteria, and Archaea will thus benefit and predominate even more in a future, warmer, and hypoxic ocean.