Influência da revisão de atividades executadas para melhoria da acurácia na estimativa de software utilizando planning poker

Abstract – Background – The software effort estimation research area aims to improve the accuracy of this estimation in software projects and activities. Aims – This study describes the development and usage of a web application tocollect data generated from the Planning Poker estimation process and the analysis of the collected data to investigate the impact of revising previous estimates when conducting similar estimates in a Planning Poker context. Method – Software activities were estimated by Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná (UTFPR) computer students, using Planning Poker, with and without revising previous similar activities, storing data regarding the decision-making process. And the collected data was used to investigate the impact that revising similar executed activities have in the software effort estimates' accuracy.Obtained Results – The UTFPR computer students were divided into 14 groups. Eight of them showed accuracy increase in more than half of their estimates. Three of them had almost the same accuracy in more than half of their estimates. And only three of them had loss of accuracy in more than half of their estimates. Conclusion – Reviewing the similar executed software activities, when using Planning Poker, led to more accurate software estimates in most cases, and, because of that, can improve the software development process.

Algorithme de branch-and-price-and-cut pour le problème de conception de réseaux avec coûts fixes, capacités et un seul produit

De nombreux problèmes liés aux domaines du transport, des télécommunications et de la logistique peuvent être modélisés comme des problèmes de conception de réseaux. Le problème classique consiste à transporter un flot (données, personnes, produits, etc.) sur un réseau sous un certain nombre de contraintes dans le but de satisfaire la demande, tout en minimisant les coûts. Dans ce mémoire, on se propose d'étudier le problème de conception de réseaux avec coûts fixes, capacités et un seul produit, qu'on transforme en un problème équivalent à plusieurs produits de façon à améliorer la valeur de la borne inférieure provenant de la relaxation continue du modèle. La méthode que nous présentons pour la résolution de ce problème est une méthode exacte de branch-and-price-and-cut avec une condition d'arrêt, dans laquelle nous exploitons à la fois la méthode de génération de colonnes, la méthode de génération de coupes et l'algorithme de branch-and-bound. Ces méthodes figurent parmi les techniques les plus utilisées en programmation linéaire en nombres entiers. Nous testons notre méthode sur deux groupes d'instances de tailles différentes (gran-des et très grandes), et nous la comparons avec les résultats donnés par CPLEX, un des meilleurs logiciels permettant de résoudre des problèmes d'optimisation mathématique, ainsi qu’avec une méthode de branch-and-cut. Il s'est avéré que notre méthode est prometteuse et peut donner de bons résultats, en particulier pour les instances de très grandes tailles.

Programmazione ad Agenti - Un Caso di Studio nel Linguaggio Sarl

Agent-oriented programming (AOP) è un paradigma di programmazione che concepisce un software come insieme di agenti che possiedono caratteristiche di autonomia, proattività e che sono in grado di comunicare con altri agenti. Sebbene sia stato impiegato soprattutto nell'ambito dell'intelligenza artificiale questo tipo di programmazione si rivela utile per lo sviluppo di sistemi distribuiti riuscendo a gestire agilmente problemi di concorrenza. Lo scopo di questa tesi è analizzare le caratteristiche del paradigma e dei software basati su agenti, utilizzando come caso di studio Sarl, un linguaggio general-purpose molto recente. La parte principale del lavoro consiste nella descrizione dei modelli teorici che hanno portato alla nascita della programmazione ad agenti, in particolare del modello BDI, e dei principali framework per lo sviluppo di sistemi multi-agente.

The nature and extent of policing alcohol related crime and reducing violence in and around late night entertainment areas

The misuse of alcohol is well documented in Australia and has been associated with disorders and harms that often require police attention. The extent of alcohol-related incidents requiring police attention has been recorded as substantial in some Australian cities (Arro, Crook, & Fenton, 1992; Davey & French, 1995; Ireland & Thommeny, 1993). A significant proportion of harmful drinking occurs in and around licensed premises (Jochelson, 1997; Stockwell, Masters, Phillips, Daly, Gahegan, Midford, & Philp, 1998; Borges, Cherpitel, & Rosovsky, 1998) and most of these incidents are not reported to police (Bryant & Williams, 2000; Lister, Hobbs, Hall, & Winlow, 2000). Alcohol-related incidents have also been found to be concentrated in certain places at certain times (Jochelson, 1997) and therefore manipulating the context in which these incidents occur may provide a means to prevent and reduce the harm associated with alcohol misuse. One of the major objectives of the present program of research was to investigate the occurrence and resource impact of alcohol-related incidents on operational (general duties) policing across a large geographical area. A second objective of the thesis was to examine the characteristics and temporal/spatial dynamics of police attended alcohol incidents in the context of Place Based theories of crime. It was envisaged that this approach would reveal the patterns of the most prevalent offences and demonstrate the relevance of Place Based theories of crime to understanding these patterns. In addition, the role of alcohol, time and place were also explored in order to examine the association between non criminal traffic offences and other types of criminal offences. A final objective of the thesis was to examine the impact of a situational crime prevention strategy that had been initiated to reduce the violence and disorder associated with late-night liquor trading premises. The program of research in this doctorate thesis has been undertaken through the presentation of published papers. The research was conducted in three stages which produced six manuscripts, five of which were submitted to peer reviewed journals and one that was published in a peer reviewed conference proceedings. Stage One included two studies (Studies 1 & 2) both of which involved a cross sectional approach to examine the prevalence and characteristics of alcohol-related incidents requiring police attendance across three large geographical areas that included metropolitan cities, provincial regions and rural areas. Stage Two of the program of research also comprised two cross sectional quantitative studies (Studies 3 & 4) that investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of the major offence categories attended by operational police in a specific Police District (Gold Coast). Stage Three of the program of research involved two studies (Studies 5 & 6) that assessed the effectiveness of a situational crime prevention strategy. The studies employed a pre-post design to assess the impact on crime, disorder and violence by preventing patrons from entering late-night liquor trading premises between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. (lockout policy). Although Study Five was solely quantitative in nature, Study Six included both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The approach adopted in Study Six, therefore facilitated not only a quantative comparison of the impact of the lockout policy on different policing areas, but also enabled the processes related to the implementation of the lockout policy to be examined. The thesis reports a program of research involving a common data collection method which then involved a series of studies being conducted to explore different aspects of the data. The data was collected from three sources. Firstly a pilot phase was undertaken to provide participants with training. Secondly a main study period was undertaken immediately following the pilot phase. The first and second sources of data were collected between 29th March 2004 and 2nd May 2004. Thirdly, additional data was collected between the 1st April 2005 and 31st May 2005. Participants in the current program of research were first response operational police officers who completed a modified activity log over a 9 week period (4 week pilot phase & 5 week survey study phase), identifying the type, prevalence and characteristics of alcohol-related incidents that were attended. During the study period police officers attended 31,090 alcohol-related incidents. Studies One and Two revealed that a substantial proportion of current police work involves attendance at alcohol-related incidents (i.e., 25% largely involving young males aged between 17 and 24 years). The most common incidents police attended were vehicle and/or traffic matters, disturbances and offences against property. The major category of offences most likely to involve alcohol included vehicle/traffic matters, disturbances and offences against the person (e.g., common & serious assaults). These events were most likely to occur in the late evenings and early hours of the morning on the weekends, and importantly, usually took longer for police to complete than non alcohol-related incidents. The findings in Studies Three and Four suggest that serious traffic offences, disturbances and offences against the person share similar characteristics and occur in concentrated places at similar times. In addition, it was found that time, place and incident type all have an influence on whether an incident attended by a police officer is alcohol-related. Alcohol-related incidents are more likely to occur in particular locations in the late evenings and early mornings on the weekends. In particular, there was a strong association between the occurrence of alcohol-related disturbances and alcohol-related serious traffic offences in regards to place and time. In general, stealing and property offences were not alcohol-related and occurred in daylight hours during weekdays. The results of Studies Five and Six were mixed. A number of alcohol-related offences requiring police attention were significantly reduced for some policing areas and for some types of offences following the implementation of the lockout policy. However, in some locations the lockout policy appeared to have a negative or minimal impact. Interviews with licensees revealed that although all were initially opposed to the lockout policy as they believed it would have a negative impact on business, most perceived some benefits from its introduction. Some of the benefits included, improved patron safety and the development of better business strategies to increase patron numbers. In conclusion, the overall findings of the six studies highlight the pervasive nature of alcohol across a range of criminal incidents, demonstrating the tremendous impact alcohol-related incidents have on police. The findings also demonstrate the importance of time and place in predicting the occurrence of alcohol-related offences. Although this program of research did not set out to test Place Based theories of crime, these theories were used to inform the interpretation of findings. The findings in the current research program provide evidence for the relevance of Place Based theories of crime to understanding the factors contributing to violence and disorder, and designing relevant crime prevention strategies. For instance, the results in Studies Five and Six provide supportive evidence that this novel lockout initiative can be beneficial for public safety by reducing some types of offences in particular areas in and around late-night liquor trading premises. Finally, intelligent-led policing initiatives based on problem oriented policing, such as the lockout policy examined in this thesis, have potential as a major crime prevention technique to reduce specific types of alcohol-related offences.

Practical introduction to development of sage applications

Throughout this workshop session we have looked at various configurations of Sage as well as using the Sage UI to run Sage applications (e.g. the image viewer). More advanced usage of Sage has been demonstrated using a Sage compatible version of Paraview highlighting the potential of parallel rendering. The aim of this tutorial session is to give a practical introduction to developing visual content for a tiled display using the Sage libraries. After completing this tutorial you should have the basic tools required to develop your own custom Sage applications. This tutorial is designed for software developers and intermediate programming knowledge is assumed, along with some introductory OpenGL . You will be required to write small portions of C/C++ code to complete this worksheet. However if you do not feel comfortable writing code (or have never written in C or C++), we will be on hand throughout this session so feel free to ask for some help. We have a number of machines in this lab running a VNC client to a virtual machine running Fedora 12. You should all be able to log in with the username “escience”, and password “escience10”. Some of the commands in this worksheet require you to run them as the root user, so note the password as you may need to use it a few times. If you need to access the Internet, then use the username “qpsf01”, password “escience10”

Drug law enforcement : a review of the evaluation literature

This article describes the results of a systematic review of drug law enforcement evaluations. The authors describe the search procedures and document the results in five main categories: international/national interventions (e.g., interdiction and drug seizure), reactive/ directed interventions (e.g., crackdowns, raids, buy-busts, saturation patrol, etc.), proactive/ partnership interventions (e.g., third-party policing, problem-oriented policing, community policing, drug nuisance abatement, etc.), individualized interventions (e.g., arrest referral and diversion), or interventions that used a combination of reactive/directed and proactive/ partnership strategies. Results indicate that proactive interventions involving partnerships between the police and third parties and/or community entities appear to be more effective at reducing both drug and nondrug problems in drug problem places than are reactive/ directed approaches. But the general quality of research in drug law enforcement is poor, the range of interventions that have been evaluated is limited, and more high-quality research is needed across a greater variety of drug interventions.

Street-level drug law enforcement : a meta-analytical review

Our paper presents the results of a meta-analytical review of street level drug law enforcement. We conducted a series of meta-analyses to compare and contrast the effectiveness of four types of drug law enforcement approaches, including community-wide policing, problem-oriented/ partnership approaches that were geographically focused, hotspots policing and standard, unfocused law enforcement efforts. We examined the relative impact of these different crime control tactics on streetlevel drug problems as well as associated problems such as property crime, disorder and violent crime. The results of the meta-analyses, together with examination of forest plots, reveal that problem-oriented policing and geographically-focused interventions involving cooperative partnerships between police and third parties tend to be more effective at controlling drug problems than community-wide policing efforts that are unfocused and spread out across a community. But geographically focused and community-wide drug law enforcement interventions that leverage partnerships are more effective at dealing with drug problems than traditional, law enforcement-only interventions. Our results suggest that the key to successful drug law enforcement lies in the capacity of the police to forge productive partnerships with third parties rather than simply increasing police presence or intervention (e.g., arrests) at drug hotspots.

Simultaneous estimation of hunting pressure, harvest and hunter success rates using WinBUGS

The use of hierarchical Bayesian spatial models in the analysis of ecological data is increasingly prevalent. The implementation of these models has been heretofore limited to specifically written software that required extensive programming knowledge to create. The advent of WinBUGS provides access to Bayesian hierarchical models for those without the programming expertise to create their own models and allows for the more rapid implementation of new models and data analysis. This facility is demonstrated here using data collected by the Missouri Department of Conservation for the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey of 1996. Three models are considered, the first uses the collected data to estimate the success rate for individual hunters at the county level and incorporates a conditional autoregressive (CAR) spatial effect. The second model builds upon the first by simultaneously estimating the success rate and harvest at the county level, while the third estimates the success rate and hunting pressure at the county level. These models are discussed in detail as well as their implementation in WinBUGS and the issues arising therein. Future areas of application for WinBUGS and the latest developments in WinBUGS are discussed as well.

Sustainable forest management : ecologically sound and socially accepted

This dissertation explored the ecological dimension of ecologically sustainable forest management in boreal forests, and factors of the socio-cultural dimension that affect how the concept of ecologically sustainable forest management is defined. My approach was problem-oriented and generalistic-holistic. I examined associations between the abundances of wildlife groups (grouse, large predators, small predators, ungulates) and Siberian flying squirrels, and their co-occurrence with tree structural characteristics at the regional level. The trade-offs between ecological, social and economic sustainability in forestry were explored at the regional scale. I identified a potential 'shopping basket' of regional indicators for ecologically sustainable forest management, combining the relative abundance of Siberian flying squirrels, a wildlife richness index (WRI) for grouse, diversity indices of saw-timber trees, tree age classes and the proportion of old-growth (> 120 yr) forests. I suggest that the close association between forestry activity, the proportion of young forests (< 40 yr) and a WRI for small predators can be considered as potential 'alarm bells' for regions in which the creation of trade-offs (negative relationships) between economic and ecological components of sustainable forestry is ongoing. Explorative analyses revealed negative relationships between forestry activity and a WRI of 16 game species, the WRI for grouse and tree age diversity. Socially sustainable communities compete less intensively with ecological components of forests than communities where forestry is important. Interestingly, forest ownership types (farmers, other private forest owners, the forestry industry, the State) correlated significantly with the co-occurrence of flying squirrels, grouse and diverse forest structural characteristics rather than, for instance, with the total number of protection areas, suggesting that private forest ownership can lead to increased ecological sustainability. I examined forest actors’ argumentation to identify characteristics that affect the interpretation of ecologically sustainable forest management. Four argumentation frame types were constructed: information, work, experience and own position based. These differed in terms of their emphasis on external experts or own experiences. The closer ecologically sustainable forest management is to the forest actor’s daily life, the more profiled policy tools (counselling, learning through experiences) are needed to guide management behaviour to become more ecologically sound. I illustrated that forest actors interpret, use and understand information through meaningful framing. I analysed the extent to which ecological research information has been perceived in the Forestry Development Centre TAPIO’s recommendations and revised PEFC Finland criteria. We noticed that the political value for decaying wood was much lower in PEFC Finland critera (4 m3) than could be expected as a socially acceptable level (9 m3) or ecologically sound (10-20 m3). I consider it important for scientists to join political discourses and become involved in policy making concerning sustainable forest management to learn to present their results in a way that is reasonable from the user’s perspective.

A FIFO-based multicast network and its use in multicomputers

We present an implementation of a multicast network of processors. The processors are connected in a fully connected network and it is possible to broadcast data in a single instruction. The network works at the processor-memory speed and therefore provides a fast communication link among processors. A number of interesting architectures are possible using such a network. We show some of these architectures which have been implemented and are functional. We also show the system software calls which allow programming of these machines in parallel mode.

Reduced Order Suboptimal Control Design for a Class of Nonlinear Distributed Parameter Systems Using POD and /spl thetas/-D Techniques

A new computational tool is presented in this paper for suboptimal control design of a class of nonlinear distributed parameter systems. First proper orthogonal decomposition based problem-oriented basis functions are designed, which are then used in a Galerkin projection to come up with a low-order lumped parameter approximation. Next, a suboptimal controller is designed using the emerging /spl thetas/-D technique for lumped parameter systems. This time domain sub-optimal control solution is then mapped back to the distributed domain using the same basis functions, which essentially leads to a closed form solution for the controller in a state feedback form. Numerical results for a real-life nonlinear temperature control problem indicate that the proposed method holds promise as a good suboptimal control design technique for distributed parameter systems.

A New Algorithm for Nonparametric Sequential Detection

We consider nonparametric sequential hypothesis testing problem when the distribution under the null hypothesis is fully known but the alternate hypothesis corresponds to a general family of distributions. We propose a simple algorithm to address the problem. Its performance is analysed and asymptotic properties are proved. The simulated and analysed performance of the algorithm is compared with an earlier algorithm addressing the same problem with similar assumptions. Finally, we provide a justification for our model motivated by a Cognitive Radio scenario and modify the algorithm for optimizing performance when information about the prior probabilities of occurrence of the two hypotheses is available.

Zero-Crossings Based Spectrum Sensing Under Noise Uncertainties

In this work, the hypothesis testing problem of spectrum sensing in a cognitive radio is formulated as a Goodness-of-fit test against the general class of noise distributions used in most communications-related applications. A simple, general, and powerful spectrum sensing technique based on the number of weighted zero-crossings in the observations is proposed. For the cases of uniform and exponential weights, an expression for computing the near-optimal detection threshold that meets a given false alarm probability constraint is obtained. The proposed detector is shown to be robust to two commonly encountered types of noise uncertainties, namely, the noise model uncertainty, where the PDF of the noise process is not completely known, and the noise parameter uncertainty, where the parameters associated with the noise PDF are either partially or completely unknown. Simulation results validate our analysis, and illustrate the performance benefits of the proposed technique relative to existing methods, especially in the low SNR regime and in the presence of noise uncertainties.

Towards multilingual domain module acquisition

Máster y Doctorado en Sistemas Informáticos Avanzados, Informatika Fakultatea - Facultad de Informática

Implementação Eletrônica de Sistemas Fuzzy.

Este trabalho investiga a implementação de sistemas fuzzy com circuitos eletrônicos. Tais sistemas têm demonstrado sua capacidade de resolver diversos tipos de problemas em várias aplicações de engenharia, em especial nas relacionadas com controle de processos. Para processos mais complexos, o raciocínio aproximado da lógica fuzzy fornece uma maneira de compreender o comportamento do sistema, permitindo a interpolação aproximada entre situações observadas de entrada e saída. A implementação de um sistema fuzzy pode ser baseada em hardware, em software ou em ambos. Tipicamente, as implementações em software utilizam ambientes de programação integrados com simulação, de modo a facilitar o trabalho do projetista. As implementações em hardware, tradicionais ou evolutivas, podem ser analógicas ou digitais e viabilizam sistemas de maior desempenho. Este trabalho tem por objetivo pesquisar a implementação eletrônica de sistemas fuzzy, a fim de viabilizar a criação de sistemas reais capazes de realizar o mapeamento de entrada e saída adequado. O foco é a utilização de uma plataforma com uma arquitetura analógico-digital baseada em uma tabela de mapeamento armazenada em uma memória de alta capacidade. Memórias do tipo SD (Secure Digital) foram estudadas e utilizadas na construção do protótipo eletrônico da plataforma. Também foram desenvolvidos estudos sobre a quantização, especificamente sobre a possibilidade de redução do número de bits. Com a implementação realizada é possível desenvolver um sistema fuzzy num ambiente simulado (Matlab), configurar a plataforma e executar o sistema fuzzy diretamente na plataforma eletrônica. Os testes com o protótipo construído comprovaram seu bom funcionamento.