The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations

A simplified general circulation model has been used to investigate the chain of causality whereby changes in tropospheric circulation and temperature are produced in response to stratospheric heating perturbations. Spinup ensemble experiments have been performed to examine the evolution of the tropospheric circulation in response to such perturbations. The primary aim of these experiments is to investigate the possible mechanisms whereby a tropospheric response to changing solar activity over the 11-yr solar cycle could be produced in response to heating of the equatorial lower stratosphere. This study therefore focuses on a stratospheric heating perturbation in which the heating is largest in the tropics. For comparison, experiments are also performed in which the stratosphere is heated uniformly at all latitudes and in which it is heated preferentially in the polar region. Thus, the mechanisms discussed have a wider relevance for the impact of stratospheric perturbations on the troposphere. The results demonstrate the importance of changing eddy momentum fluxes in driving the tropospheric response. This is confirmed by the lack of a similar response in a zonally symmetric model with fixed eddy forcing. Furthermore, it is apparent that feedback between the tropospheric eddy fluxes and tropospheric circulation changes is required to produce the full model response. The quasigeostrophic index of refraction is used to diagnose the cause of the changes in eddy behavior. It is demonstrated that the latitudinal extent of stratospheric heating is important in determining the direction of displacement of the tropospheric jet and storm track.

A singular vector perspective of 4DVAR: The spatial structure and evolution of baroclinic weather systems

The extent to which the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) is able to use information about the time evolution of the atmosphere to infer the vertical spatial structure of baroclinic weather systems is investigated. The singular value decomposition (SVD) of the 4DVAR observability matrix is introduced as a novel technique to examine the spatial structure of analysis increments. Specific results are illustrated using 4DVAR analyses and SVD within an idealized 2D Eady model setting. Three different aspects are investigated. The first aspect considers correcting errors that result in normal-mode growth or decay. The results show that 4DVAR performs well at correcting growing errors but not decaying errors. Although it is possible for 4DVAR to correct decaying errors, the assimilation of observations can be detrimental to a forecast because 4DVAR is likely to add growing errors instead of correcting decaying errors. The second aspect shows that the singular values of the observability matrix are a useful tool to identify the optimal spatial and temporal locations for the observations. The results show that the ability to extract the time-evolution information can be maximized by placing the observations far apart in time. The third aspect considers correcting errors that result in nonmodal rapid growth. 4DVAR is able to use the model dynamics to infer some of the vertical structure. However, the specification of the case-dependent background error variances plays a crucial role.

Unification of the probe and singular sources methods for the inverse boundary value problem by the no-response test

In this article, we use the no-response test idea, introduced in Luke and Potthast (2003) and Potthast (Preprint) and the inverse obstacle problem, to identify the interface of the discontinuity of the coefficient gamma of the equation del (.) gamma(x)del + c(x) with piecewise regular gamma and bounded function c(x). We use infinitely many Cauchy data as measurement and give a reconstructive method to localize the interface. We will base this multiwave version of the no-response test on two different proofs. The first one contains a pointwise estimate as used by the singular sources method. The second one is built on an energy (or an integral) estimate which is the basis of the probe method. As a conclusion of this, the probe and the singular sources methods are equivalent regarding their convergence and the no-response test can be seen as a unified framework for these methods. As a further contribution, we provide a formula to reconstruct the values of the jump of gamma(x), x is an element of partial derivative D at the boundary. A second consequence of this formula is that the blow-up rate of the indicator functions of the probe and singular sources methods at the interface is given by the order of the singularity of the fundamental solution.

Upwind solution of singular differential equations arising from steady channel flows

We study ordinary nonlinear singular differential equations which arise from steady conservation laws with source terms. An example of steady conservation laws which leads to those scalar equations is the Saint–Venant equations. The numerical solution of these scalar equations is sought by using the ideas of upwinding and discretisation of source terms. Both the Engquist–Osher scheme and the Roe scheme are used with different strategies for discretising the source terms.

A singular vector perspective of 4D-Var: Filtering and interpolation

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) combines the information from a time sequence of observations with the model dynamics and a background state to produce an analysis. In this paper, a new mathematical insight into the behaviour of 4D-Var is gained from an extension of concepts that are used to assess the qualitative information content of observations in satellite retrievals. It is shown that the 4D-Var analysis increments can be written as a linear combination of the singular vectors of a matrix which is a function of both the observational and the forecast model systems. This formulation is used to consider the filtering and interpolating aspects of 4D-Var using idealized case-studies based on a simple model of baroclinic instability. The results of the 4D-Var case-studies exhibit the reconstruction of the state in unobserved regions as a consequence of the interpolation of observations through time. The results also exhibit the filtering of components with small spatial scales that correspond to noise, and the filtering of structures in unobserved regions. The singular vector perspective gives a very clear view of this filtering and interpolating by the 4D-Var algorithm and shows that the appropriate specification of the a priori statistics is vital to extract the largest possible amount of useful information from the observations. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

Moist singular vectors and the predictability of some high impact European cyclones

The ECMWF full-physics and dry singular vector (SV) packages, using a dry energy norm and a 1-day optimization time, are applied to four high impact European cyclones of recent years that were almost universally badly forecast in the short range. It is shown that these full-physics SVs are much more relevant to severe cyclonic development than those based on dry dynamics plus boundary layer alone. The crucial extra ingredient is the representation of large-scale latent heat release. The severe winter storms all have a long, nearly straight region of high baroclinicity stretching across the Atlantic towards Europe, with a tongue of very high moisture content on its equatorward flank. In each case some of the final-time top SV structures pick out the region of the actual storm. The initial structures were generally located in the mid- to low troposphere. Forecasts based on initial conditions perturbed by moist SVs with opposite signs and various amplitudes show the range of possible 1-day outcomes for reasonable magnitudes of forecast error. In each case one of the perturbation structures gave a forecast very much closer to the actual storm than the control forecast. Deductions are made about the predictability of high-impact extratropical cyclone events. Implications are drawn for the short-range forecast problem and suggestions made for one practicable way to approach short-range ensemble forecasting. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

The influence of physical processes on extratropical singular vectors

An investigation is made of the impact of a full linearized physical (moist) parameterization package on extratropical singular vectors (SVs) using the ECMWF integrated forecasting system (IFS). Comparison is made for one particular period with a dry physical package including only vertical diffusion and surface drag. The crucial extra ingredient in the full package is found to be the large-scale latent heat release. Consistent with basic theory, its inclusion results in a shift to smaller horizontal scales and enhanced growth for the SVs. Whereas, for the dry SVs, T42 resolution is sufficient, the moist SVs require T63 to resolve their structure and growth. A 24-h optimization time appears to be appropriate for the moist SVs because of the larger growth of moist SVs compared with dry SVs. Like dry SVs, moist SVs tend to occur in regions of high baroclinicity, but their location is also influenced by the availability of moisture. The most rapidly growing SVs appear to enhance or reduce large-scale rain in regions ahead of major cold fronts. The enhancement occurs in and ahead of a cyclonic perturbation and the reduction in and ahead of an anticyclonic perturbation. Most of the moist SVs for this situation are slightly modified versions of the dry SVs. However, some occur in new locations and have particularly confined structures. The most rapidly growing SV is shown to exhibit quite linear behavior in the nonlinear model as it grows from 0.5 to 12 hPa in 1 day. For 5 times this amplitude the structure is similar but the growth is about half as the perturbation damps a potential vorticity (PV) trough or produces a cutoff, depending on its sign.

Changes in the global sulfate burden due to perturbations in global CO2 concentrations

A large ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations coupled to a fully interactive sulfur cycle scheme were run on the climateprediction.net platform to investigate the uncertainty in the climate response to sulfate aerosol and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. The sulfate burden within the model (and the atmosphere) depends on the balance between formation processes and deposition (wet and dry). The wet removal processes for sulfate aerosol are much faster than dry removal and so any changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, and precipitation will feed back on the sulfate burden. When CO2 is doubled in the Hadley Centre Slab Ocean Model (HadSM3), global mean precipitation increased by 5%; however, the global mean sulfate burden increased by 10%. Despite the global mean increase in precipitation, there were large areas of the model showing decreases in precipitation (and cloud cover) in the Northern Hemisphere during June–August, which reduced wet deposition and allowed the sulfate burden to increase. Further experiments were also undertaken with and without doubling CO2 while including a future anthropogenic sulfur emissions scenario. Doubling CO2 further enhanced the increases in sulfate burden associated with increased anthropogenic sulfur emissions as observed in the doubled CO2-only experiment. The implications are that the climate response to doubling CO2 can influence the amount of sulfate within the atmosphere and, despite increases in global mean precipitation, may act to increase it.

Coriolis perturbations in the infrared spectrum of ethylene

Rotational structure has been resolved and analyzed in two of the infrared‐active perpendicular bands of C2H4 vapor: the Type b fundamental band, ν10, at 826 cm—1, and the Type c fundamental band, ν7, at 949 cm—1. Many of the individual PP and RR branch lines have been observed. The analysis has been confined to values of the quantum number K≥3, for which energy levels ethylene shows no detectable deviations from a symmetric‐top rotational structure. The analysis reveals a Coriolis interaction between ν7 and ν10, and between ν4 and ν10, and values of the Coriolis constants ζ7,10z and ζ4,10y are obtained; these are related to normal coordinate calculations for the appropriate symmetry species, and force constants are derived to fit the observed zeta constants. The band center of ν10 has been revised from the original figure of 810 cm—1 to the new value, 826 cm—1, and the inactive frequency ν4 is estimated to lie at 1023±3 cm—1, in good agreement with the previous estimate of 1027 cm—1. The change in the value of ν10 leads to a suggested change in the value of the Raman‐active fundamental ν6 from 1236 to 1222 cm—1. New combination bands have been observed at 2174 cm—1, assigned as ν3+ν10; and at 2252 cm—1, assigned as ν4+ν6; also rotational structure has been resolved and analyzed in the ν6+ν10 band at 2048 cm—1. The new data obtained for the C2H4 molecule are summarized in Table XII, with all of the other data presently available on the vibrational and rotational constants.

Coriolis perturbations in the infrared spectrum of allene

High resolution infrared spectra of the ν9 and ν10 perpendicular fundamentals of the allene molecule are reported, in which the J structure in the sub-bands has been partially resolved. Analysis of the latter shows that the vibrational origin ν9 = 999 cm−1, some 35 cm−1 below previous assignments. The pronounced asymmetry in the intensity distribution of the rotational structure which this assignment implies is shown to be expected theoretically, due to the Coriolis perturbations involved, and it is interpreted in terms of the sign and magnitude of the ratio of the dipole moment derivatives in the two fundamentals. The results of this analysis are shown to be in good agreement with observations on allene-1.1-d2, where similar intensity perturbations are observed, and with an independent analysis of the ν8 band of allene-h4. The A rotational constant of allene-h4 is found to have the value 4.82 ± 0.01 cm−1, and for the molecular geometry we obtain r(CH) = 1.084 A, r(CC) = 1.308 A, and HCH = 118.4°. A partial analysis of the rotational structure of the hot bands (ν9 + ν11 − ν11) and (ν10 + ν11 − ν11) is presented; these provide an example of a strong Coriolis interaction between nearly degenerate A1A2 and B1B2 pairs of vibrational levels. Some localized rotational perturbations in the ν9 and ν10 fundamentals are also noted, and their possible interpretations are discussed.

Coriolis perturbations in the infrared spectrum of diborane

High‐resolution infrared spectra of B2H6 vapor are reported. The sample was prepared from the naturally occurring 11B☒10B isotopic mixture. The rotational structure of the infrared bands has been analysed for Coriolis perturbations due to rotation about the axis of least moment of inertia (the B⋅⋅⋅B axis). The following results have been obtained: (a) interaction between the Type A fundamental ν18 and the inactive fundamental ν5 has been observed, thus confirming the assignment of ν5 at 833 cm—1, giving ∣ ζ5,18Z ∣=0.55±0.05; (b) interaction observed between the Type A combination band (ν10+ν12) at 1283 cm—1 and the inactive combination (ν10+ν7) gives an estimate of the unobserved fundamental ν7 as 850±30 cm—1, and an estimate of ∣ ζ7,12Z ∣=0.6±0.1; (c) the absence of any observed perturbation of the Type C fundamental ν14 at 973 cm—1, suggests, by negative arguments, that either the unobserved fundamental ν9 does not lie in the frequency range 900 to 1100 cm—1, or ∣ ζ9,14Z ∣<0.2. The assignment of the unobserved fundamental vibrations of diborane is discussed in the light of this evidence.