Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Macrophage Activation Syndrome in Juvenile Systemic Lupus Erythematosus A Multinational Multicenter Study of Thirty-Eight Patients

Objective. To describe the clinical and laboratory features of macrophage activation syndrome as a complication of juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods. Cases of juvenile SLE-associated macrophage activation syndrome were provided by investigators belonging to 3 pediatric rheumatology networks or were found in the literature. Patients who had evidence of macrophage hemophagocytosis on bone marrow aspiration were considered to have definite macrophage activation syndrome, and those who did not have such evidence were considered to have probable macrophage activation syndrome. Clinical and laboratory findings in patients with macrophage activation syndrome were contrasted with those of 2 control groups composed of patients with active juvenile SLE without macrophage activation syndrome. The ability of each feature to discriminate macrophage activation syndrome from active disease was evaluated by calculating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results. The study included 38 patients (20 with definite macrophage activation syndrome and 18 with probable macrophage activation syndrome). Patients with definite and probable macrophage activation syndrome were comparable with regard to all clinical and laboratory features of the syndrome, except for a greater frequency of lymphadenopathy, leukopenia, and thrombocytopenia in patients with definite macrophage activation syndrome. Overall, clinical features had better specificity than sensitivity, except for fever, which was highly sensitive but had low specificity. Among laboratory features, the best sensitivity and specificity was achieved using hyperferritinemia, followed by increased levels of lactate dehydrogenase, hypertriglyceridemia, and hypofibrinogenemia. Based on the results of statistical analysis, preliminary diagnostic guidelines for macrophage activation syndrome in juvenile SLE were developed.Conclusion. Our findings indicate that the occurrence of unexplained fever and cytopenia, when associated with hyperferritinemia, in a patient with juvenile SLE should raise the suspicion of macrophage activation syndrome. We propose preliminary guidelines for this syndrome in juvenile SLE to facilitate timely diagnosis and correct classification of patients.

Preliminary core sets of measures for disease activity and damage assessment in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus and juvenile dermatomyositis

Objective. To identify preliminary core sets of outcome variables for disease activity and damage assessment in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) and juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). Methods. Two questionnaire surveys were mailed to 267 physicians from 46 different countries asking each member to select and rank the response variables used when assessing clinical response in patients with JSLE or JDM. Next, 40 paediatric rheumatologists from 34 countries met and, using the nominal group technique, selected the domains to be included in the disease activity and damage core sets for JSLE and JDM. Results. A total of 41 response variables for JSLE and 37 response variables for JDM were selected and ranked through the questionnaire surveys. In the consensus conference, domains selected for both JSLE and JDM activity or damage core sets included the physician and parent/patient subjective assessments and a global score tool. Domains specific for JSLE activity were the immunological tests and the kidney function parameters. Concerning JDM, functional ability and muscle strength assessments were indicated for both activity and damage core sets, whereas serum muscle enzymes were included only in the activity core set. A specific paediatric domain called 'growth and development' was introduced in the disease damage core set for both diseases and the evaluation of health-related quality of life was advised in order to capture the influence of the disease on the patient lifestyle. Conclusions. We developed preliminary core sets of measures for disease activity and damage assessment in JSLE and JDM. The prospective validation of the core sets is in progress.

The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

IL-2, IL-5, TNF-α and IFN-γ mRNA expression in epidermal keratinocytes of systemic lupus erythematosus skin lesions

OBJECTIVE: To analyze cytokine gene expression in keratinocytes from patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). INTRODUCTION: Keratinocytes represent 95% of epidermal cells and can secrete several cytokines. METHODS: Keratinocytes were obtained by laser microdissection from 21 patients with SLE (10 discoid and 11 acute lesions) at involved and uninvolved sites. All patients were receiving a low/moderate prednisone dose and 18 were receiving chloroquine diphosphate. IL-2, IL-5, TNF-α and IFN-γ gene expression was evaluated by real-time PCR and expressed as the ratio (R) to a pool of skin samples from 12 healthy volunteers. RESULTS: Heterogeneity in cytokine gene expression was found among patients with SLE. Eighteen of 38 valid SLE samples (47%) presented overexpression (R>1) of at least one cytokine. Lesional skin samples tended to show higher cytokine expression than samples from uninvolved skin (p = 0.06). IL-5 and IFN-γ were the most commonly overexpressed cytokines. Samples with cytokine overexpression corresponded to more extensive and severe lesions. Prednisone dose did not differ between samples without cytokine overexpression (15.71±3.45 mg/day) and those with overexpressed cytokines (12.68±5.41 mg/day) (p = 0.216). Samples from all patients not receiving diphosphate chloroquine had at least one overexpressed cytokine. CONCLUSIONS: The heterogeneous keratinocyte cytokine gene expression reflects the complex immunological and inflammatory background in SLE. Patients with severe/extensive skin lesions showed a higher frequency of cytokine gene overexpression. Increased IFN-γ and IL-5 expression suggests that Th1 and Th2 cells are involved in SLE skin inflammation. The possibility that prednisone and antimalarial drugs may have contributed to low cytokine gene expression in some samples cannot be ruled out.

Preschool children and excess weight: the impact of a low complexity intervention in public day care centers

Introduction: childhood obesity is a major public health problem, affecting children even at early ages. Objective: to assess the impact of dietary intervention and relatively simple physical activity on the nutritional state of preschoolers. Method: this was an intervention study in public daycare centers targeting children from 2 to 4 years of age, in the State of São Paulo. The sample consisted of 9 daycare centers covering 578 children, with 264 children in the intervention group (IG) and 314 in the comparison group (CG). Intervention was focused on modifications in diet and physical activity, avoiding overloading the routine of daycare centers, for duration of one year. A zBMI score > 1 (zBMI) and < 2 was considered risk of being overweight, and > 2 zBMI was considered excess weight (overweight and obese). Analysis was done by frequency calculations, comparisons of proportions by χ2, mean comparisons by t-student and calculations according to Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Results: IG showed an inverse correlation between the initial zBMI of the children and the difference with the zBMI at the end of the intervention (rP = -0.39, p <0.0001). The mean difference of zBMI of the overweight children in IG between the beginning and the end of the study period was negative (-0.46 z score), indicating weight reduction, while the children in the CG was positive (+0. 17 z score) (p = 0.0037). Conclusion: intervention in diet and physical activity in overweight preschool children in daycare centers could have a favorable impact on the evolution of their nutritional state.

First insight on the impact of an osteoblastic layer on the bio-tribocorrosion performance of Ti6Al4V hip implants

In uncemented Ti6Al4V hip implants, the bone-stem interface is subjected to cyclic loading motion driven by the daily activities of the patients, which may lead to the complete failure of the implant in the long term. It may also compromise the proliferation and differentiation processes of osteoblastic cells (bone-forming cells). The main objective of this work is to approach for the first time the role of these organic materials on the bio-tribocorrosion mechanisms of cultured Ti6Al4V alloys. The colonized materials with MG63 osteoblastic-like cells were characterized through cell viability/proliferation and enzymatic activity. Tribocorrosion tests were performed under a reciprocating sliding configuration and low contact pressure. Electrochemical techniques were used to measure the corrosion kinetics of the system, under free potential conditions. All tests were performed at a controlled atmosphere. The morphology and topography of the wear scar were evaluated. The results showed that the presence of an osteoblastic cell layer on the implant surface significantly influences the tribocorrosion behavior of Ti6Al4V alloy. It was concluded that the cellular material was able to form an extra protective layer that inhibits further wear degradation of the alloy and decreases its corrosion tendency.

The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil

We examine the impact of Brazil's Bolsa Escola/Familia program on Brazilian children's education outcomes. Bolsa provides cash payments to poor households if their children (ages 6 to 15) are enrolled in school. Using school census data to compare changes in enrollment, dropping out and grade promotion across schools that adopted Bolsa at different times, we estimate that the program has: increased enrollment by about 5.5% (6.5%) in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); lowered dropout rates by 0.5 (0.4) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); and raised grade promotion rates by 0.9 (0.3) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8). About one third of Brazil's children participate in Bolsa, so assuming no spillover effects onto non-participants implies that Bolsa's impacts are three times higher than these estimates. However, simple calculations using enrollment impacts suggest that Bolsa's benefits in terms of increased wages may not exceed its costs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alveolar hemorrhage: distinct features of juvenile and adult onset systemic lupus erythematosus

We compared outcomes of alveolar hemorrhage (AH) in juvenile (JSLE) and adult onset SLE (ASLE). From 263 JSLE and 1522 ASLE, the AH occurred in 13 (4.9%) and 15 (1.0%) patients, respectively (p < .001). Both groups had comparable disease duration (2.6 +/- 3.0 vs. 5.6 +/- 7.0 years, p = .151) and median SLEDAI scores [17.5 (2 to 32) vs. 17.5 (3 to 28), p = 1.000]. At AH onset, a higher frequency of JSLE were already on a high prednisone dose ( > 0.5 mg/kg/day) compared to ASLE (54% vs. 15%, p = .042). The mean drop of hemoglobin was significantly lower in JSLE (2.9 +/- 0.9 vs. 5.5 +/- 2.9 g/dL, p = .006). Although treatments with methylprednisolone, plasmapheresis, intravenous immunoglobulin and cyclophosphamide were similar in both groups (p > .050), regarding outcomes, there was a trend in high frequency of mechanical ventilation use (85% vs. 47%, p = .055) and also significant mortality (69% vs. 13%, p = .006) in JSLE compared to ASLE. The sepsis frequency was comparable in both groups (50% vs. 27%, p = .433). We have identified that AH in JSLE has a worse outcome most likely related to respiratory failure. The AH onset in JSLE already treated with high-dose steroids raises the concern of inadequate response to this treatment and reinforces the recommendation of early aggressive alternative therapies in this group of patients. Lupus (2012) 21, 872-877.

Immune response and tolerability of varicella vaccine in children and adolescents with systemic lupus erythematosus previously exposed to varicella-zoster virus

Objectives The aim of the present paper is to evaluate the immune response and tolerability of varicella vaccine in children and adolescents with systemic lupus erythematosus previously exposed to varicella-zoster virus. Methods We performed a prospective and controlled study on a group of 54 SLE patients that were chosen at random to be or not to be vaccinated (28 were vaccinated and 26 were not). Twenty-eight healthy controls, of matching age and sex were also vaccinated. All were submitted to a questionnaire, physical evaluation and laboratory assays: lymphocyte immuno-phenotyping by flow cytometry, plasma varicella zoster virus (VZV) serology by ELISA and in vitro interferon gamma (IFN gamma) production by T-cells after stimulus with VZV antigen. They were evaluated before vaccination and at 30, 45, 180 and 360 days afterwards. Results We did not observe any differences in the frequency of adverse events in both vaccinated groups. At study entry, all individuals were seropositive for VZV antibodies. The serum VZV antibody titres similarly increased after vaccination. The frequency of flares and the SLEDAI score were also similar among the patients. Thirty days after vaccination the production of IFN gamma specific to VZV was lower in the SLE group compared to healthy, controls. In the follow-up we observed 4 cases of herpes zoster in the SLE unvaccinated group, but no zoster in the vaccinated group. Conclusion The varicella vaccine was well tolerated in SLE group, who had pre-existing immunity to varicella. The varicella vaccine immunogenicity measurement by serum antibody titres was appropriate. The incidence of HZ was lower in the vaccinated lupus group.

Chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis and systemic lupus erythematosus: a new variant of chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis?

Chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis (CMC) is characterized by susceptibility to Candida infection of skin, nails, and mucous membranes. Autoimmune endocrinopathies are common in CMC patients, but there are no reports of the involvement of systemic autoimmune disorders. We present here the first case of this kind of association in a patient with an autosomal dominant variant of CMC. The individual had had this disorder since childhood and systemic lupus erythematosus with secondary antiphospholipid syndrome, as well as renal, articular and hepatic manifestations without thymoma.

Subclinical impairment of ovarian reserve in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus after cyclophosphamide therapy

Objective To perform systematic assessment of ovarian reserve markers using a combination of tests in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) patients without amenorrhoea. Methods Twenty-seven consecutive JSLE female patients and 13 healthy controls without amenorrhoea were evaluated for 6 months. Ovarian reserve was assessed during early follicular phase by serum levels of follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinising hormone (LH), estradiol, inhibin A, inhibin B and anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH). Ovarian size was measured by abdominal ultrasonography. Demographic data, disease activity, damage and treatment were also analysed. Results The median of current age was similar in ISLE patients and controls (16.5 vs. 15years, p=0.31) with a significantly higher age at menarche (13 vs. 12years, p=0.03). A trend of lower median total antral follicle count was observed in JSLE compared to controls (9 vs. 14.5, p=0.062) with similar median of other ovarian reserve parameters (p>0.05). Further evaluation of patients treated with cyclophosphamide and those without this treatment revealed a higher median FSH levels (6.4 vs. 4.6 IU/L, p=0.023). Inhibin B, AMH levels and ovarian volume were also lower but did not reach statistical significance (10.8 vs. 27.6 pg/mL, p=0.175; 0.6 vs. 1.5 ng/mL, p=0.276; 3.4 vs. 5 cm(3), p=0.133; respectively). LH (2.7 vs. 2.9 IU/L, p=0.43), estradiol (50 vs. 38 pg/mL, p=0.337) and inhibin A (1.1 vs. 0 pg/mL, p=0.489) levels were comparable in both groups. Conclusions Our study suggests that ovarian reserve after cyclophosphamide treatment may be hampered in spite of the presence of menstrual cycles emphasising the relevance of gonadal protection during the use of this alkylating agent.

Construction and validation of an instrument that breaks the silence: the impact of domestic and/or sexual violence on women's health, as shown during climacterium

Objective: The aim of this study was to construct and to validate a measure of the consequences of domestic violence on women's health during climacterium. Methods: A questionnaire was administered at the Outpatient Climacterium Clinic to 124 women aged 40 to 65 years who were the victims of domestic and/or sexual violence (experimental group). They were divided into three groups: (1) those who were victims of violence exclusively during childhood/adolescence, (2) those who were victims of violence exclusively during adulthood, and (3) those who were victims of violence throughout their lives. The instrument included 34 items evaluating the beginning, frequency, and type of violence; the search for health assistance and reporting of the violence; the violence and the number of comorbidities; and violence and the Kupperman Menopausal Index. We also included a control group composed of perimenopausal and postmenopausal women who did not experience any violence (n = 120). Results: The instrument presented a Cronbach alpha = 0.82, good reliability among the examiners (+0.80), and a good possibility of reproducibility. The mean age of menopause was 45.4 years, and the mean age in the control group was 48.1 years. Group 1 showed a mean of 5.1 comorbidities, Group 2 had 4.6, and Group 3 had 4.4. Sexual violence (43.5%) and other types of violence both presented average comorbidities (4.60) but represented a significant impairment in the victim's sexual life. There were significant associations in group 3 and a high Kupperman Menopausal Index score. In the experimental group, 80.6% did not seek health services for the violence they experienced. Conclusions: The questionnaire presented good internal consistency and a validated construction. It can be easily reproduced and is indicated to evaluate the consequences of domestic and/or sexual violence on women's health during climacterium.

Low dynamic muscle strength and its associations with fatigue, functional performance, and quality of life in premenopausal patients with systemic lupus erythematosus and low disease activity: a case–control study

Abstract Background The purpose of the present study was to compare dynamic muscle strength, functional performance, fatigue, and quality of life in premenopausal systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients with low disease activity versus matched-healthy controls and to determine the association of dynamic muscle strength with fatigue, functional performance, and quality of life in SLE patients. Methods We evaluated premenopausal (18–45 years) SLE patients with low disease activity (Systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index [SLEDAI]: mean 1.5 ± 1.2). The control (n = 25) and patient (n = 25) groups were matched by age, physical characteristics, and the level of physical activities in daily life (International Physical Activity Questionnaire IPAQ). Both groups had not participated in regular exercise programs for at least six months prior to the study. Dynamic muscle strength was assessed by one-repetition maximum (1-RM) tests. Functional performance was assessed by the Timed Up and Go (TUG), in 30-s test a chair stand and arm curl using a 2-kg dumbbell and balance test, handgrip strength and a sit-and-reach flexibility test. Quality of life (SF-36) and fatigue were also measured. Results The SLE patients showed significantly lower dynamic muscle strength in all exercises (leg press 25.63%, leg extension 11.19%, leg curl 15.71%, chest press 18.33%, lat pulldown 13.56%, 1-RM total load 18.12%, P < 0.001-0.02) compared to the controls. The SLE patients also had lower functional performance, greater fatigue and poorer quality of life. In addition, fatigue, SF-36 and functional performance accounted for 52% of the variance in dynamic muscle strength in the SLE patients. Conclusions Premenopausal SLE patients with low disease activity showed lower dynamic muscle strength, along with increased fatigue, reduced functional performance, and poorer quality of life when compared to matched controls.