The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.

Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

Establishment and expansion of Lake Malawi rock fish populations after a dramatic Late Pleistocene lake level rise

Major environmental events that fragment populations among multiple island habitats have potential to drive large-scale episodes of speciation and adaptive radiation. A recent palaeolimnological study of sediment cores indicated that Lake Malawi underwent major climate-driven desiccation events 75 000-135 000 years ago that lowered the water level to at least 580 m below the present state and severely reduced surface area. After this period, lake levels rose and stabilized, creating multiple discontinuous littoral rocky habitats. Here, we present evidence supporting the hypothesis that establishment and expansion of isolated philopatric rock cichlid populations occurred after this rise and stabilization of lake level. We studied the Pseudotropheus (Maylandia) species complex, a group with both allopatric and sympatric populations that differ in male nuptial colour traits and tend to mate assortatively. Using coalescent analyses based on mitochondrial DNA, we found evidence that populations throughout the lake started to expand and accumulate genetic diversity after the lake level rise. Moreover, most haplotypes were geographically restricted, and the greatest genetic similarities were typically among sympatric or neighbouring populations. This is indicative of limited dispersal and establishment of assortative mating among populations following the lake level rise. Together, this evidence is compatible with a single large-scale environmental event being central to evolution of spatial patterns of genetic and species diversity in P. (Maylandia) and perhaps other Lake Malawi rock cichlids. Equivalent climate-driven pulses of habitat formation and fragmentation may similarly have contributed to observed rapid and punctuated cladogenesis in other adaptive radiations.

Lake-level rise in the late Pleistocene and active subaquatic volcanism since the Holocene in Lake Kivu; East African Rift

The history of Lake Kivu is strongly linked to the activity of the Virunga volcanoes. Subaerial and subaquatic volcanoes, in addition to lake-level changes, shape the subaquatic morphologic and structural features in Lake Kivu's Main Basin. Previous studies revealed that volcanic eruptions blocked the former outlet of the lake to the north in the late Pleistocene, leading to a substantial rise in the lake level and subsequently the present- day thermohaline stratification. Additional studies have speculated that volcanic and seismic activities threaten to trigger a catastrophic release of the large amount of gases dissolved in the lake. The current study presents a bathymetric mapping and seismic profiling survey that covers the volcanically active area of the Main Basin at a resolution that is unprecedented for Lake Kivu. New geomorphologic features identified on the lake floor can accurately describe related lake-floor processes for the first time. The late Pleistocene lowstand is observed at 425 m depth, and volcanic cones, tuff rings, and lava flows observed above this level indicate both subaerial and subaquatic volcanic activities during the Holocene. The geomorphologic analysis yields new implications on the geologic processes that have shaped Lake Kivu's basin, and the presence of young volcanic features can be linked to the possibility of a lake overturn.

Sea Level Pressure Variability Over the Southern Indian Ocean Inferred from a Glaciochemical Record in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

A 250-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from LGB65 (70degrees50'07"S, 77degrees04'29"E; 1850 m asl), Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the southern Indian Ocean (SIO). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (EOF1) of the glaciochemical record from LGB65 represents most of the variability in sea salt throughout the 250-year record. EOF1 is negatively correlated (95% confidence level and higher) to instrumental mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at Kerguelen and New Amsterdam islands, SIO. On the basis of comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, strong correlations were found between sea-salt variations and a quasi-stationary low that lies to the north of Prydz Bay, SIO. Comparison with a 250-year-long summer transpolar index (STPI) inferred from sub-Antarctic tree ring records reveals strong coherency. Decadal-scale SLP variability over SIO suggests shifting of the polar vortex. Prominent decadal-scale deepening of the southern Indian Ocean low (SIOL) exists circa 1790, 1810, 1835, 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1940 A. D., continuously after the 1970s, and prominent weakening circa 1750, 1795, 1825, 1850, 1870, 1890, 1910, and 1955 A. D. The LGB65 sea-salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong similar to21-year periodic structure (99.9% confidence level). The relationship between LGB65 sea salt and solar irradiance changes shows that this periodicity is possibly the solar Hale cycle ( 22 years).

Tularemia in the Southeastern Swiss Alps at 1,700 m above sea level.

A 37-year-old man presented with a 4-day history of nonbloody diarrhea, fever, chills, productive cough, vomiting, and more recent sore throat. He worked for the municipality in a village in the Swiss Alps near St. Moritz. Examination showed fever (40 °C), hypotension, tachycardia, tachypnea, decreased oxygen saturation (90 % at room air), and bibasilar crackles and wheezing. Chest radiography and computed tomography scan showed an infiltrate in the left upper lung lobe. He responded to empiric therapy with imipenem for 5 days. After the imipenem was stopped, the bacteriology laboratory reported that 2/2 blood cultures showed growth of Francisella tularensis. He had recurrence of fever and diarrhea. He was treated with ciprofloxacin (500 mg twice daily, oral, for 14 days) and symptoms resolved. Further testing confirmed that the isolate was F. tularensis (subspecies holarctica) belonging to the subclade B.FTNF002-00 (Western European cluster). This case may alert physicians that tularemia may occur in high-altitude regions such as the Swiss Alps.