Analytical properties of horizontal visibility graphs in the Feigenbaum scenario

Time series are proficiently converted into graphs via the horizontal visibility (HV) algorithm, which prompts interest in its capability for capturing the nature of different classes of series in a network context. We have recently shown [B. Luque et al., PLoS ONE 6, 9 (2011)] that dynamical systems can be studied from a novel perspective via the use of this method. Specifically, the period-doubling and band-splitting attractor cascades that characterize unimodal maps transform into families of graphs that turn out to be independent of map nonlinearity or other particulars. Here, we provide an in depth description of the HV treatment of the Feigenbaum scenario, together with analytical derivations that relate to the degree distributions, mean distances, clustering coefficients, etc., associated to the bifurcation cascades and their accumulation points. We describe how the resultant families of graphs can be framed into a renormalization group scheme in which fixed-point graphs reveal their scaling properties. These fixed points are then re-derived from an entropy optimization process defined for the graph sets, confirming a suggested connection between renormalization group and entropy optimization. Finally, we provide analytical and numerical results for the graph entropy and show that it emulates the Lyapunov exponent of the map independently of its sign.

Location-aided distributed primary user identification in a cognitive radio scenario

We address a cognitive radio scenario, where a number of secondary users performs identification of which primary user, if any, is trans- mitting, in a distributed way and using limited location information. We propose two fully distributed algorithms: the first is a direct iden- tification scheme, and in the other a distributed sub-optimal detection based on a simplified Neyman-Pearson energy detector precedes the identification scheme. Both algorithms are studied analytically in a realistic transmission scenario, and the advantage obtained by detec- tion pre-processing is also verified via simulation. Finally, we give details of their fully distributed implementation via consensus aver- aging algorithms.

The Phase Space as a New Representation of the Dynamical Behaviour of Temperature and Enthalpy in a Reefer monitored with a Multidistributed Sensors Network

The study of temperature gradients in cold stores and containers is a critical issue in the food industry for the quality assurance of products during transport, as well as forminimizing losses. The objective of this work is to develop a new methodology of data analysis based on phase space graphs of temperature and enthalpy, collected by means of multidistributed, low cost and autonomous wireless sensors and loggers. A transoceanic refrigerated transport of lemons in a reefer container ship from Montevideo (Uruguay) to Cartagena (Spain) was monitored with a network of 39 semi-passive TurboTag RFID loggers and 13 i-button loggers. Transport included intermodal transit from transoceanic to short shipping vessels and a truck trip. Data analysis is carried out using qualitative phase diagrams computed on the basis of Takens?Ruelle reconstruction of attractors. Fruit stress is quantified in terms of the phase diagram area which characterizes the cyclic behaviour of temperature. Areas within the enthalpy phase diagram computed for the short sea shipping transport were 5 times higher than those computed for the long sea shipping, with coefficients of variation above 100% for both periods. This new methodology for data analysis highlights the significant heterogeneity of thermohygrometric conditions at different locations in the container.

Analysis of a Spanish energy scenario with Generation IV nuclear reactors

The advantages of fast-spectrum reactors consist not only of an efficient use of fuel through the breeding of fissile material and the use of natural or depleted uranium, but also of the potential reduction of the amount of actinides such as americium and neptunium contained in the irradiated fuel. The first aspect means a guaranteed future nuclear fuel supply. The second fact is key for high-level radioactive waste management, because these elements are the main responsible for the radioactivity of the irradiated fuel in the long term. The present study aims to analyze the hypothetical deployment of a Gen-IV Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) fleet in Spain. A nuclear fleet of fast reactors would enable a fuel cycle strategy different than the open cycle, currently adopted by most of the countries with nuclear power. A transition from the current Gen-II to Gen-IV fleet is envisaged through an intermediate deployment of Gen-III reactors. Fuel reprocessing from the Gen-II and Gen-III Light Water Reactors (LWR) has been considered. In the so-called advanced fuel cycle, the reprocessed fuel used to produce energy will breed new fissile fuel and transmute minor actinides at the same time. A reference case scenario has been postulated and further sensitivity studies have been performed to analyze the impact of the different parameters on the required reactor fleet. The potential capability of Spain to supply the required fleet for the reference scenario using national resources has been verified. Finally, some consequences on irradiated final fuel inventory are assessed. Calculations are performed with the Monte Carlo transport-coupled depletion code SERPENT together with post-processing tools.

Change factors that may influence sun and beach destinations in a low-growth scenario

Análisis de los principales factores de cambio que previsiblemente incidirán en los destinos turísticos de sol y playa en un escenario de bajo crecimiento.

Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

Supervisión multidistribuida de transportes refrigerados mediante tecnología inalámbrica: diagrama de fases una nueva metodología de análisis.

El estudio de los gradientes de temperatura en cámaras frigoríficas y contenedores es un problema crítico en la industria alimentaria para el aseguramiento de la calidad de los productos durante el transporte, así como para minimizar las pérdidas. El objetivo de este trabajo es el desarrollo de una nueva metodología de análisis de datos basada en la reconstrucción del espacio de fases de la serie temporal de temperaturas, registradas por una red multidistribuida de sensores inalámbricos autónomos y de bajo coste. Se monitorizó un transporte transoceánico en barco de limones en un contenedor multimodal refrigerado, desde Montevideo (Uruguay) a Cartagena (España), utilizando una red de 39 tarjetas RFID semi-pasivas TurboTag ®. El viaje completo incluyó el transporte transoceánico de larga distancia, un cambio de buque para un segundo transporte en barco de corta distancia y finalmente un viaje en camión hasta la central. El análisis de datos se basó en un estudio cualitativo de las series temporales mediante la representación de diagramas de fases calculados sobre la teoría de reconstrucción de atractores de Takens-Ruelle. El estrés de la fruta se cuantificó en términos del área que sobre el diagrama de fases ocupó el ciclo o atractor de la temperatura. Esta nueva metodología para el análisis de los datos pone de relieve la significativa heterogeneidad de las condiciones térmicas en diferentes puntos del contenedor.

Regret theory-based scenario building using an interacttive process

This paper is an introduction of the regret theory-based scenario building approach combining with a modified Delphi method that uses an interactive process to design and assess four different TDM measures (i.e., cordon toll, parking charge, increased bus frequency and decreased bus fare). The case study of Madrid is used to present the analysis and provide policy recommendations. The new scenario building approach incorporates expert judgement and transport models in an interactive process. It consists of a two-round modified Delphi survey, which was answeared by a group of Spanish transport experts who were the participants of the Transport Engineering Congress (CIT 2012), and an integrated land-use and transport model (LUTI) for Madrid that is called MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator).

Moldels for reproducing the damage scenario of the Lorca earthquake

A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.

Cognitive Surveillance Architecture for Scenario Understanding

Uno de los mayores retos para la comunidad científica es conseguir que las máquinas posean en un futuro la capacidad del sistema visual y cognitivo humanos, de forma que, por ejemplo, en entornos de video vigilancia, puedan llegar a proporcionar de manera automática una descripción fiable de lo que está ocurriendo en la escena. En la presente tesis, mediante la propuesta de un marco de trabajo de referencia, se discuten y plantean los pasos necesarios para el desarrollo de sistemas más inteligentes capaces de extraer y analizar, a diferentes niveles de abstracción y mediante distintos módulos de procesamiento independientes, la información necesaria para comprender qué está sucediendo en un conjunto amplio de escenarios de distinta naturaleza. Se parte de un análisis de requisitos y se identifican los retos para este tipo de sistemas en la actualidad, lo que constituye en sí mismo los objetivos de esta tesis, contribuyendo así a un modelo de datos basado en el conocimiento que permitirá analizar distintas situaciones en las que personas y vehículos son los actores principales, dejando no obstante la puerta abierta a la adaptación a otros dominios. Así mismo, se estudian los distintos procesos que se pueden lanzar a nivel interno así como la necesidad de integrar mecanismos de realimentación a distintos niveles que permitan al sistema adaptarse mejor a cambios en el entorno. Como resultado, se propone un marco de referencia jerárquico que integra las capacidades de percepción, interpretación y aprendizaje para superar los retos identificados en este ámbito; y así poder desarrollar sistemas de vigilancia más robustos, flexibles e inteligentes, capaces de operar en una variedad de entornos. Resultados experimentales ejecutados sobre distintas muestras de datos (secuencias de vídeo principalmente) demuestran la efectividad del marco de trabajo propuesto respecto a otros propuestos en el pasado. Un primer caso de estudio, permite demostrar la creación de un sistema de monitorización de entornos de parking en exteriores para la detección de vehículos y el análisis de plazas libres de aparcamiento. Un segundo caso de estudio, permite demostrar la flexibilidad del marco de referencia propuesto para adaptarse a los requisitos de un entorno de vigilancia completamente distinto, como es un hogar inteligente donde el análisis automático de actividades de la vida cotidiana centra la atención del estudio. ABSTRACT One of the most ambitious objectives for the Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition research community is that machines can achieve similar capacities to the human's visual and cognitive system, and thus provide a trustworthy description of what is happening in the scene under surveillance. Thus, a number of well-established scenario understanding architectural frameworks to develop applications working on a variety of environments can be found in the literature. In this Thesis, a highly descriptive methodology for the development of scene understanding applications is presented. It consists of a set of formal guidelines to let machines extract and analyse, at different levels of abstraction and by means of independent processing modules that interact with each other, the necessary information to understand a broad set of different real World surveillance scenarios. Taking into account the challenges that working at both low and high levels offer, we contribute with a highly descriptive knowledge-based data model for the analysis of different situations in which people and vehicles are the main actors, leaving the door open for the development of interesting applications in diverse smart domains. Recommendations to let systems achieve high-level behaviour understanding will be also provided. Furthermore, feedback mechanisms are proposed to be integrated in order to let any system to understand better the environment and the logical context around, reducing thus the uncertainty and noise, and increasing its robustness and precision in front of low-level or high-level errors. As a result, a hierarchical cognitive architecture of reference which integrates the necessary perception, interpretation, attention and learning capabilities to overcome main challenges identified in this area of research is proposed; thus allowing to develop more robust, flexible and smart surveillance systems to cope with the different requirements of a variety of environments. Once crucial issues that should be treated explicitly in the design of this kind of systems have been formulated and discussed, experimental results shows the effectiveness of the proposed framework compared with other proposed in the past. Two case studies were implemented to test the capabilities of the framework. The first case study presents how the proposed framework can be used to create intelligent parking monitoring systems. The second case study demonstrates the flexibility of the system to cope with the requirements of a completely different environment, a smart home where activities of daily living are performed. Finally, general conclusions and future work lines to further enhancing the capabilities of the proposed framework are presented.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

A “midinfrared” scenario for cuprate superconductivity

I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture.

Central compact objects and the hidden magnetic field scenario

Central compact objects (CCOs) are X-ray sources lying close to the centre of supernova remnants, with inferred values of the surface magnetic fields significantly lower (≲1011 G) than those of standard pulsars. In this paper, we revise the hidden magnetic field scenario, presenting the first 2D simulations of the submergence and re-emergence of the magnetic field in the crust of a neutron star. A post-supernova accretion stage of about 10−4–10−3 M⊙ over a vast region of the surface is required to bury the magnetic field into the inner crust. When accretion stops, the field re-emerges on a typical time-scale of 1–100 kyr, depending on the submergence conditions. After this stage, the surface magnetic field is restored close to its birth values. A possible observable consequence of the hidden magnetic field is the anisotropy of the surface temperature distribution, in agreement with observations of several of these sources. We conclude that the hidden magnetic field model is viable as an alternative to the antimagnetar scenario, and it could provide the missing link between CCOs and the other classes of isolated neutron stars.

A study of a soft computing based method for 3D scenario reconstruction

Several recent works deal with 3D data in mobile robotic problems, e.g., mapping. Data comes from any kind of sensor (time of flight, Kinect or 3D lasers) that provide a huge amount of unorganized 3D data. In this paper we detail an efficient approach to build complete 3D models using a soft computing method, the Growing Neural Gas (GNG). As neural models deal easily with noise, imprecision, uncertainty or partial data, GNG provides better results than other approaches. The GNG obtained is then applied to a sequence. We present a comprehensive study on GNG parameters to ensure the best result at the lowest time cost. From this GNG structure, we propose to calculate planar patches and thus obtaining a fast method to compute the movement performed by a mobile robot by means of a 3D models registration algorithm. Final results of 3D mapping are also shown.