Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Biological, physical and chemical characteristics of water and sediment samples from the Volga River delta, northern Caspian

Based on the data of synchronous observations of hydrophysical and biogeochemical parameters in the near-mouth and shallow-water areas of the northern Caspian in 2000-2001, the scale of spatiotemporal variability in the following characteristics of the water-bottom system was estimated (1) flow velocity and direction within vortex structures formed by the combined effect of wind, discharge current, and the presence of higher aquatic plants; (2) dependence of the spatial distribution of the content and composition of suspended particulate matter on the hydrodynamic regime of waters and development of phytoplankton; (3) variations in the grain-size, petrographic, mineralogical, and chemical compositions of the upper layer of bottom sediments at several sites in the northern Caspian related to the particular local combination of dominant natural processes; and (4) limits of variability in the group composition of humus compounds in bottom sediments. The acquired data are helpful in estimating the geochemical consequences of a sea level rise and during the planning of preventive environmental protection measures in view of future oil and gas recovery in this region.

Particulate organic matter (POM) of samples from the Lena River delta

Particulate organic matter (POM) derived from permafrost soils and transported by the Lena River represents a quantitatively important terrestrial carbon pool exported to Laptev Sea sediments (next to POM derived from coastal erosion). Its fate in a future warming Arctic, i.e., its remobilization and remineralization after permafrost thawing as well as its transport pathways to and sequestration in marine sediments, is currently under debate. We present one of the first radiocarbon (14C) data sets for surface water POM within the Lena Delta sampled in the summers of 2009 - 2010 and spring 2011 (n = 30 samples). The bulk D14C values varied from -55 to -391 per mil translating into 14C ages of 395 to 3920 years BP. We further estimated the fraction of soil-derived POM to our samples based on (1) particulate organic carbon to particulate nitrogen ratios (POC : PN) and (2) on the stable carbon isotope (d13C) composition of our samples. Assuming that this phytoplankton POM has a modern 14C concentration, we inferred the 14C concentrations of the soil-derived POM fractions. The results ranged from -322 to -884 per mil (i.e., 3060 to 17 250 14C years BP) for the POC : PN-based scenario and from -261 to -944 per mil (i.e., 2370 to 23 100 14C years BP) for the d13C-based scenario. Despite the limitations of our approach, the estimated D14C values of the soil-derived POM fractions seem to reflect the heterogeneous 14C concentrations of the Lena River catchment soils covering a range from Holocene to Pleistocene ages better than the bulk POM D14C values. We further used a dual-carbon-isotope three-end-member mixing model to distinguish between POM contributions from Holocene soils and Pleistocene Ice Complex (IC) deposits to our soil-derived POM fraction. IC contributions are comparatively low (mean of 0.14) compared to Holocene soils (mean of 0.32) and riverine phytoplankton (mean of 0.55), which could be explained with the restricted spatial distribution of IC deposits within the Lena catchment. Based on our newly calculated soil-derived POM D14C values, we propose an isotopic range for the riverine soil-derived POM end member with D14C of -495 ± 153 per mil deduced from our d13C-based binary mixing model and d13C of -26.6 ± 1 per mil deduced from our data of Lena Delta soils and literature values. These estimates can help to improve the dual-carbon-isotope simulations used to quantify contributions from riverine soil POM, Pleistocene IC POM from coastal erosion, and marine POM in Siberian shelf sediments.

Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Phytoplankton daily production in the Rhode River, Maryland (USA), 1990-2009

Parameters in the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) relationship of phytoplankton were used to calculate daily production at weekly to bi-weekly intervals for 20 years at 6 stations on the Rhode River, Maryland (USA). The objectives of this work were to determine the patterns and controls on the P-E parameters and primary production of phytoplankton in a shallow eutrophic estuary. Additional measurements that are components of calculated daily rates of primary productivity are given: the light-saturation irradiance, photoperiod, maximal noon incident irradiance, optical depth, dimensionless depth integrals, and a correction for spectral selectivity of light absorption. P-E parameters and chlorophyll a concentrations were given in a related dataset, Gallegos (2012, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.816494).

Photosynthetic parameters, chlorophyll concentration, and diffuse attenuation coefficients in the Rhode River, Maryland (USA), 1990-2009

Parameters in the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) relationship of phytoplankton were measured at weekly to bi-weekly intervals for 20 yr at 6 stations on the Rhode River, Maryland (USA). Variability in the light-saturated photosynthetic rate, PBmax, was partitioned into interannual, seasonal, and spatial components. The seasonal component of the variance was greatest, followed by interannual and then spatial. Physiological models of PBmax based on balanced growth or photoacclimation predicted the overall mean and most of the range, but not individual observations, and failed to capture important features of the seasonal and interannual variability. PBmax correlated most strongly with temperature and the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (IC), with lesser correlations with chlorophyll a, diffuse attenuation coefficient, and a principal component of the species composition. In statistical models, temperature and IC correlated best with the seasonal pattern, but temperature peaked in late July, out of phase with PBmax, which peaked in September, coincident with the maximum in monthly averaged IC concentration. In contrast with the seasonal pattern, temperature did not contribute to interannual variation, which instead was governed by IC and the additional lesser correlates. Spatial variation was relatively weak and uncorrelated with ancillary measurements. The results demonstrate that both the overall distribution of PBmax and its relationship with environmental correlates may vary from year to year. Coefficients in empirical statistical models became stable after including 7 to 10 yr of data. The main correlates of PBmax are amenable to automated monitoring, so that future estimates of primary production might be made without labor-intensive incubations.

Adaptive variability to low-pH river discharges in Acartia tonsa and stress responses to high PCO2 conditions

Environmental transitions leading to spatial physical-chemical gradients are of ecological and evolutionary interest because they are able to induce variations in phenotypic plasticity. Thus, the adaptive variability to low-pH river discharges may drive divergent stress responses [ingestion rates (IR) and expression of stress-related genes such as Heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) and Ferritin] in the neritic copepod Acartia tonsa facing changes in the marine chemistry associated to ocean acidification (OA). These responses were tested in copepod populations inhabiting two environments with contrasting carbonate system parameters (an estuarine versus coastal area) in the Southern Pacific Ocean, and assessing an in situ and 96-h experimental incubation under conditions of high pressure of CO2 (PCO2 1200 ppm). Adaptive variability was a determining factor in driving variability of copepods' responses. Thus, the food-rich but colder and corrosive estuary induced a traits trade-off expressed as depressed IR under in situ conditions. However, this experience allowed these copepods to tolerate further exposure to high PCO2 levels better, as their IRs were on average 43% higher than those of the coastal individuals. Indeed, expression of both the Hsp70 and Ferritin genes in coastal copepods was significantly higher after acclimation to high PCO2 conditions. Along with other recent evidence, our findings confirm that adaptation to local fluctuations in seawater pH seems to play a significant role in the response of planktonic populations to OA-associated conditions. Facing the environmental threat represented by the inter-play between multiple drivers of climate change, this biological feature should be examined in detail as a potential tool for risk mitigation policies in coastal management arrangements.

The Lena River Delta - inventory of lakes and geomorphological terraces

This data set provides a detailed inventory of lakes in the Lena Delta, northern Siberia, with respect to the lakes' association with one of the three geomorphological main terraces of the Lena Delta. The inventory is based on Landsat-7 ETM+ image data and spatial analysis in a Geographical Information System (GIS). Several morphometric lake attributes were determined from the resulting dataset and statistically analyzed. Significant differences in the morphometric lake characteristics allowed the distinction of a mean lake type for each main terrace. The lake types reflect the special lithological and cryolithological conditions and geomorphological processes prevailing on each terrace. In Morgenstern et al. (2008), special focus was laid on the investigation of lake orientation and the discussion of possible mechanisms for the evolution of the second terrace's oriented lakes.

Dynamic Studies of Shell and Spatial Structures

For the past 20 years, dynamic analysis of shells has been one of the most fascinating fields for research. Using the new light materials the building engineer soon discovered that the subsequent reduction of gravity forces produced not only the desired shape freedom but the appearance of ecologic loads as the first factor of design; loads which present strong random properties and marked dynamic influence. On the other hand, the technological advance in the aeronautical and astronautical field placed the engineers in front of shell structures of nonconventional shape and able to sustain substantialy dynamic loads. The response to the increasingly challenger problems of the last two decades has been very bright; new forms, new materials and new methods of analysis have arosen in the design of off-shore platforms, nuclear vessels, space crafts, etc. Thanks to the intensity of the lived years we have at our disposition a coherent and homogeneous amount of knowledge which enable us to face problems of inconceivable complexity when IASS was founded. The open minded approach to classical problems and the impact of the computer are, probably, important factors in the Renaissance we have enjoyed these years, and a good proof of this are the papers presented to the previous IASS meetings as well as that we are going to consider in this one. Particularly striking is the great number of papers based on a mathematical modeling in front of the meagerness of those treating laboratory experiments on physical models. The universal entering of the computer into almost every phase of our lifes, and the cost of physical models, are –may be- reasons for this lack of experimental methods. Nevertheless they continue offering useful results as are those obtained with the shaking-table in which the computer plays an essential role in the application of loads as well as in the instantaneous treatment of control data. Plates 1 and 2 record the papers presented under dynamic heading, 40% of them are from Japan in good correlation with the relevance that Japanese research has traditionally showed in this area. Also interesting is to find old friends as profesors Tanaka, Nishimura and Kostem who presented valuable papers in previous IASS conferences. As we see there are papers representative of all tendencies, even purely analytical! Better than discuss them in detail, which can be done after the authors presentation, I think we can comment in the general pattern of the dynamical approach are summarized in plate 3.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Spatial divisions of society

The encounter of architecture and urbanism with parcelisation is marked with the sign of a historical debt. Parcelisation is a tremendously powerful design tool. Architecture and urban planning attest to its capacity to shape sociospatial relations across a range of scales and contexts. From Renaissance palazzi to modernist slabs, from nation-wide agrarian reforms and Haussmann’s Paris to Christopher Alexander’s new theory of urban design and Michael Webb’s Suitaloon — most of the historical revolutions and experimental projects that have shaken these fields have relied, consciously or not, on a critique and restructuration of inherited divisions of land and space. The layout of parcel patterns has a series of implications including forms of property, the divide between private and public realms, the distribution of spatial contents and uses through zoning, typological decisions and so forth. The behaviour of any urban structure depends on the tissue of plots that configures the urban fabric and many of the challenges urban design faces today —complexity, urban vitality, social equality, etc.— hinge upon the forms of land division and distribution we adopt.

Modelización de servicios ecosistémicos en una cuenca hidrológica del área mediterránea = Modeling ecosystem services in a mediterranean area river basin

La modelización es un proceso por el que se obtienen modelos de los procesos del ´mundo real´ mediante la utilización de simplificaciones. Sin embargo, las estimaciones obtenidas con el modelo llevan implícitas incertidumbre que se debe evaluar. Mediante un análisis de sensibilidad se puede mejorar la confianza en los resultados, sin embargo, este paso a veces no se realiza debido básicamente al trabajo que lleva consigo este tipo de análisis. Además, al crear un modelo, hay que mantener un equilibrio entre la obtención de resultados lo más exactos posible mediante un modelo lo más sencillo posible. Por ello, una vez creado un modelo, es imprescindible comprobar si es necesario o no incluir más procesos que en un principio no se habían incluido. Los servicios ecosistémicos son los procesos mediante los cuales los ecosistemas mantienen y satisfacen el bienestar humano. La importancia que los servicios ecosistémicos y sus beneficios asociados tienen, junto con la necesidad de realizar una buena gestión de los mismos, han estimulado la aparición de modelos y herramientas para cuantificarlos. InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs) es una de estas herramientas específicas para calcular servicios eco-sistémicos, desarrollada por Natural Capital Project (Universidad de Stanford, EEUU). Como resultado del creciente interés en calcular los servicios eco-sistémicos, se prevé un incremento en la aplicación del InVEST. La investigación desarrollada en esta Tesis pretende ayudar en esas otras importantes fases necesarias después de la creación de un modelo, abarcando los dos siguientes trabajos. El primero es la aplicación de un análisis de sensibilidad al modelo en una cuenca concreta mediante la metodología más adecuada. El segundo es relativo a los procesos dentro de la corriente fluvial que actualmente no se incluyen en el modelo mediante la creación y aplicación de una metodología que estudiara el papel que juegan estos procesos en el modelo InVEST de retención de nutrientes en el área de estudio. Los resultados de esta Tesis contribuirán a comprender la incertidumbre involucrada en el proceso de modelado. También pondrá de manifiesto la necesidad de comprobar el comportamiento de un modelo antes de utilizarlo y en el momento de interpretar los resultados obtenidos. El trabajo en esta Tesis contribuirá a mejorar la plataforma InVEST, que es una herramienta importante en el ámbito de los servicios de los ecosistemas. Dicho trabajo beneficiará a los futuros usuarios de la herramienta, ya sean investigadores (en investigaciones futuras), o técnicos (en futuros trabajos de toma de decisiones o gestión ecosistemas). ABSTRACT Modeling is the process to idealize real-world situations through simplifications in order to obtain a model. However, model estimations lead to uncertainties that have to be evaluated formally. The role of the sensitivity analysis (SA) is to assign model output uncertainty based on the inputs and can increase confidence in model, however, it is often omitted in modelling, usually as a result of the growing effort it involves. In addition, the balance between accuracy and simplicity is not easy to assess. For this reason, when a model is developed, it is necessary to test it in order to understand its behavior and to include, if necessary, more complexity to get a better response. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and their constituent species, sustain and fulfill human life. The relevance of ecosystem services and the need to better manage them and their associated benefits have stimulated the emergence of models and tools to measure them. InVEST, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs, is one of these ecosystem services-specific tools developed by the Natural Capital Project (Stanford University, USA). As a result of the growing interest in measuring ecosystem services, the use of InVEST is anticipated to grow exponentially in the coming years. However, apart from model development, making a model involves other crucial stages such as its evaluation and application in order to validate estimations. The work developed in this thesis tries to help in this relevant and imperative phase of the modeling process, and does so in two different ways. The first one is to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model, which consists in choosing and applying a methodology in an area and analyzing the results obtained. The second is related to the in-stream processes that are not modeled in the current model, and consists in creating and applying a methodology for testing the streams role in the InVEST nutrient retention model in a case study, analyzing the results obtained. The results of this Thesis will contribute to the understanding of the uncertainties involved in the modeling process. It will also illustrate the need to check the behavior of every model developed before putting them in production and illustrate the importance of understanding their behavior in terms of correctly interpreting the results obtained in light of uncertainty. The work in this thesis will contribute to improve the InVEST platform, which is an important tool in the field of ecosystem services. Such work will benefit future users, whether they are researchers (in their future research), or technicians (in their future work in ecosystem conservation or management decisions).

Logarithmical hopping encoding: a low computational complexity algorithm for image compression

LHE (logarithmical hopping encoding) is a computationally efficient image compression algorithm that exploits the Weber–Fechner law to encode the error between colour component predictions and the actual value of such components. More concretely, for each pixel, luminance and chrominance predictions are calculated as a function of the surrounding pixels and then the error between the predictions and the actual values are logarithmically quantised. The main advantage of LHE is that although it is capable of achieving a low-bit rate encoding with high quality results in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) and image quality metrics with full-reference (FSIM) and non-reference (blind/referenceless image spatial quality evaluator), its time complexity is O( n) and its memory complexity is O(1). Furthermore, an enhanced version of the algorithm is proposed, where the output codes provided by the logarithmical quantiser are used in a pre-processing stage to estimate the perceptual relevance of the image blocks. This allows the algorithm to downsample the blocks with low perceptual relevance, thus improving the compression rate. The performance of LHE is especially remarkable when the bit per pixel rate is low, showing much better quality, in terms of PSNR and FSIM, than JPEG and slightly lower quality than JPEG-2000 but being more computationally efficient.