Risk Judgment in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder: Testing a Dual-Systems Account

Dual-systems theorists posit distinct modes of reasoning. The intuition system reasons automatically and its processes are unavailable to conscious introspection. The deliberation system reasons effortfully while its processes recruit working memory. The current paper extends the application of such theories to the study of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD). Patients with OCD often retain insight into their irrationality, implying dissociable systems of thought: intuition produces obsessions and fears that deliberation observes and attempts (vainly) to inhibit. To test the notion that dual-systems theory can adequately describe OCD, we obtained speeded and unspeeded risk judgments from OCD patients and non-anxious controls in order to quantify the differential effects of intuitive and deliberative reasoning. As predicted, patients deemed negative events to be more likely than controls. Patients also took more time in producing judgments than controls. Furthermore, when forced to respond quickly patients' judgments were more affected than controls'. Although patients did attenuate judgments when given additional time, their estimates never reached the levels of controls'. We infer from these data that patients have genuine difficulty inhibiting their intuitive cognitive system. Our dual-systems perspective is compatible with current theories of the disorder. Similar behavioral tests may prove helpful in better understanding related anxiety disorders. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Common obesity risk alleles in childhood attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have a higher rate of obesity than children without ADHD. Obesity risk alleles may overlap with those relevant for ADHD. We examined whether risk alleles for an increased body mass index (BMI) are associated with ADHD and related quantitative traits (inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity). We screened 32 obesity risk alleles of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for ADHD based on 495 patients and 1,300 population-based controls and performed in silico analyses of the SNPs in an ADHD meta-analysis comprising 2,064 trios, 896 independent cases, and 2,455 controls. In the German sample rs206936 in the NUDT3 gene (nudix; nucleoside diphosphate linked moiety X-type motif 3) was associated with ADHD risk (OR: 1.39; P = 3.4 × 10(-4) ; Pcorr  = 0.01). In the meta-analysis data we found rs6497416 in the intronic region of the GPRC5B gene (G protein-coupled receptor, family C, group 5, member B; P = 7.2 × 10(-4) ; Pcorr  = 0.02) as a risk allele for ADHD. GPRC5B belongs to the metabotropic glutamate receptor family, which has been implicated in the etiology of ADHD. In the German sample rs206936 (NUDT3) and rs10938397 in the glucosamine-6-phosphate deaminase 2 gene (GNPDA2) were associated with inattention, whereas markers in the mitogen-activated protein kinase 5 gene (MAP2K5) and in the cell adhesion molecule 2 gene (CADM2) were associated with hyperactivity. In the meta-analysis data, MAP2K5 was associated with inattention, GPRC5B with hyperactivity/impulsivity and inattention and CADM2 with hyperactivity/impulsivity. Our results justify further research on the elucidation of the common genetic background of ADHD and obesity.

Bipolar disorder risk alleles in children with ADHD

Bipolar disorder (BD) and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may share common genetic risk factors as indicated by the high co-morbidity of BD and ADHD, their phenotypic overlap especially in pediatric populations, the high heritability of both disorders, and the co-occurrence in families. We therefore examined whether known polygenic BD risk alleles are associated with ADHD. We chose the eight best SNPs of the recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of BD patients of German ancestry and the nine SNPs from international GWAS meeting a 'genome-wide significance' level of α = 5 × 10(-8). A GWAS was performed in 495 ADHD children and 1,300 population-based controls using HumanHap550v3 and Human660 W-Quadv1 BeadArrays. We found no significant association of childhood ADHD with single BD risk alleles surviving adjustment for multiple testing. Yet, risk alleles for BD and ADHD were directionally consistent at eight of nine loci with the strongest support for three SNPs in or near NCAN, BRE, and LMAN2L. The polygene analysis for the BP risk alleles at all 14 loci indicated a higher probability of being a BD risk allele carrier in the ADHD cases as compared to the controls. At a moderate power to detect association with ADHD, if true effects were close to estimates from GWAS for BD, our results suggest that the possible contribution of BD risk variants to childhood ADHD risk is considerably lower than for BD. Yet, our findings should encourage researchers to search for common genetic risk factors in BD and childhood ADHD in future studies.

Health risk appraisal in older people 3: prevalence, impact, and context of pain and their implications for GPs

BACKGROUND: Pain is a common experience in later life. There is conflicting evidence of the prevalence, impact, and context of pain in older people. GPs are criticised for underestimating and under-treating pain. AIM: To assess the extent to which older people experience pain, and to explore relationships between self-reported pain and functional ability and depression. DESIGN OF STUDY: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal. SETTING: A total of 1090 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over were included in the study from three group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Main outcome measures were pain in the last 4 weeks and the impact of pain, measured using the 24-item Geriatric Pain Measure; depression symptoms captured using the 5-item Mental Health Inventory; social relationships measured using the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale; Basic and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living and self-reported symptoms. RESULTS: Forty-five per cent of women and 34% of men reported pain in the previous 4 weeks. Pain experience appeared to be less in the 'oldest old': 27.5% of those aged 85 years and over reported pain compared with 38-53% of the 'younger old'. Those with arthritis were four times more likely to report pain. Pain had a profound impact on activities of daily living, but most of those reporting pain described their health as good or excellent. Although there was a significant association between the experience of pain and depressed mood, the majority of those reporting pain did not have depressed mood. CONCLUSION: A multidimensional approach to assessing pain is appropriate. Primary care practitioners should also assess the impact of pain on activities of daily living.

Health risk appraisal in older people 2: the implications for clinicians and commissioners of social isolation risk in older people

BACKGROUND: Social isolation is associated with poorer health, and is seen by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as one of the major issues facing the industrialised world. AIM: To explore the significance of social isolation in the older population for GPs and for service commissioners. DESIGN OF STUDY: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal. SETTING: A total of 2641 community-dwelling, non-disabled people aged 65 years and over in suburban London. METHOD: Demographic details, social network and risk for social isolation based on the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale, measures of depressed mood, memory problems, numbers of chronic conditions, medication use, functional ability, self-reported use of medical services. RESULTS: More than 15% of the older age group were at risk of social isolation, and this risk increased with advancing age. In bivariate analyses risk of social isolation was associated with older age, education up to 16 years only, depressed mood and impaired memory, perceived fair or poor health, perceived difficulty with both basic and instrumental activities of daily living, diminishing functional ability, and fear of falling. Despite poorer health status, those at risk of social isolation did not appear to make greater use of medical services, nor were they at greater risk of hospital admission. Half of those who scored as at risk of social isolation lived with others. Multivariate analysis showed significant independent associations between risk of social isolation and depressed mood and living alone, and weak associations with male sex, impaired memory and perceived poor health. CONCLUSION: The risk of social isolation is elevated in older men, older persons who live alone, persons with mood or cognitive problems, but is not associated with greater use of services. These findings would not support population screening for individuals at risk of social isolation with a view to averting service use by timely intervention. Awareness of social isolation should trigger further assessment, and consideration of interventions to alleviate social isolation, treat depression or ameliorate cognitive impairment.

Health risk appraisal in older people 1: are older people living alone an "at-risk" group?

BACKGROUND: In the UK, population screening for unmet need has failed to improve the health of older people. Attention is turning to interventions targeted at 'at-risk' groups. Living alone in later life is seen as a potential health risk, and older people living alone are thought to be an at-risk group worthy of further intervention. AIM: To explore the clinical significance of living alone and the epidemiology of lone status as an at-risk category, by investigating associations between lone status and health behaviours, health status, and service use, in non-disabled older people. Design of study: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in older people. SETTING: Four group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Sixty per cent of 2641 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over registered at a practice agreed to participate in the study; 84% of these returned completed questionnaires. A third of this group, (n = 860, 33.1%) lived alone and two-thirds (n = 1741, 66.9%) lived with someone else. RESULTS: Those living alone were more likely to report fair or poor health, poor vision, difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living, worse memory and mood, lower physical activity, poorer diet, worsening function, risk of social isolation, hazardous alcohol use, having no emergency carer, and multiple falls in the previous 12 months. After adjustment for age, sex, income, and educational attainment, living alone remained associated with multiple falls, functional impairment, poor diet, smoking status, risk of social isolation, and three self-reported chronic conditions: arthritis and/or rheumatism, glaucoma, and cataracts. CONCLUSION: Clinicians working with independently-living older people living alone should anticipate higher levels of disease and disability in these patients, and higher health and social risks, much of which will be due to older age, lower educational status, and female sex. Living alone itself appears to be associated with higher risks of falling, and constellations of pathologies, including visual loss and joint disorders. Targeted population screening using lone status may be useful in identifying older individuals at high risk of falling.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Risk analysis of light-frame wood construction due to multiple hazards

Light-frame wood buildings are widely built in the United States (U.S.). Natural hazards cause huge losses to light-frame wood construction. This study proposes methodologies and a framework to evaluate the performance and risk of light-frame wood construction. Performance-based engineering (PBE) aims to ensure that a building achieves the desired performance objectives when subjected to hazard loads. In this study, the collapse risk of a typical one-story light-frame wood building is determined using the Incremental Dynamic Analysis method. The collapse risks of buildings at four sites in the Eastern, Western, and Central regions of U.S. are evaluated. Various sources of uncertainties are considered in the collapse risk assessment so that the influence of uncertainties on the collapse risk of lightframe wood construction is evaluated. The collapse risks of the same building subjected to maximum considered earthquakes at different seismic zones are found to be non-uniform. In certain areas in the U.S., the snow accumulation is significant and causes huge economic losses and threatens life safety. Limited study has been performed to investigate the snow hazard when combined with a seismic hazard. A Filtered Poisson Process (FPP) model is developed in this study, overcoming the shortcomings of the typically used Bernoulli model. The FPP model is validated by comparing the simulation results to weather records obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The FPP model is applied in the proposed framework to assess the risk of a light-frame wood building subjected to combined snow and earthquake loads. The snow accumulation has a significant influence on the seismic losses of the building. The Bernoulli snow model underestimates the seismic loss of buildings in areas with snow accumulation. An object-oriented framework is proposed in this study to performrisk assessment for lightframe wood construction. For home owners and stake holders, risks in terms of economic losses is much easier to understand than engineering parameters (e.g., inter story drift). The proposed framework is used in two applications. One is to assess the loss of the building subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Aftershock and downtime costs are found to be important factors in the assessment of seismic losses. The framework is also applied to a wood building in the state of Washington to assess the loss of the building subjected to combined earthquake and snow loads. The proposed framework is proven to be an appropriate tool for risk assessment of buildings subjected to multiple hazards. Limitations and future works are also identified.

Promotion of health in older people: a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in British general practice

BACKGROUND: there is inadequate evidence to support currently formulated NHS strategies to achieve health promotion and preventative care in older people through broad-based screening and assessment in primary care. The most extensively evaluated delivery instrument for this purpose is Health Risk Appraisal (HRA). This article describes a trial using HRA to evaluate the effect on health behaviour and preventative-care uptake in older people in NHS primary care. METHODS: a randomised controlled trial was undertaken in three London primary care group practices. Functionally independent community-dwelling patients older than 65 years (n = 2,503) received a self-administered Health Risk Appraisal for Older Persons (HRA-O) questionnaire leading to computer-generated individualised written feedback to participants and general practitioners (GPs), integrated into practice information-technology (IT) systems. All primary care staff received training in preventative health in older people. The main outcome measures were self-reported health behaviour and preventative care uptake at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: of 2,503 individuals randomised, 2,006 respondents (80.1%) (intervention, n = 940, control n = 1,066) were available for analysis. Intervention group respondents reported slightly higher pneumococcal vaccination uptake and equivocal improvement in physical activity levels compared with controls. No significant differences were observed for any other categories of health behaviour or preventative care measures at 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: HRA-O implemented in this way resulted in minimal improvement of health behaviour or uptake of preventative care measures in older people. Supplementary reinforcement involving contact by health professionals with patients over and above routine clinical encounters may be a prerequisite to the effectiveness of IT-based delivery systems for health promotion in older people.

Body contouring surgery following bariatric surgery and dietetically induced massive weight reduction: a risk analysis

BACKGROUND: This study analyzed the impact of weight reduction method, preoperative, and intraoperative variables on the outcome of reconstructive body contouring surgery following massive weight reduction. METHODS: All patients presenting with a maximal BMI >/=35 kg/m(2) before weight reduction who underwent body contouring surgery of the trunk following massive weight loss (excess body mass index loss (EBMIL) >/= 30%) between January 2002 and June 2007 were retrospectively analyzed. Incomplete records or follow-up led to exclusion. Statistical analysis focused on weight reduction method and pre-, intra-, and postoperative risk factors. The outcome was compared to current literature results. RESULTS: A total of 104 patients were included (87 female and 17 male; mean age 47.9 years). Massive weight reduction was achieved through bariatric surgery in 62 patients (59.6%) and dietetically in 42 patients (40.4%). Dietetically achieved excess body mass index loss (EBMIL) was 94.20% and in this cohort higher than surgically induced reduction EBMIL 80.80% (p < 0.01). Bariatric surgery did not present increased risks for complications for the secondary body contouring procedures. The observed complications (26.9%) were analyzed for risk factors. Total tissue resection weight was a significant risk factor (p < 0.05). Preoperative BMI had an impact on infections (p < 0.05). No impact on the postoperative outcome was detected in EBMIL, maximal BMI, smoking, hemoglobin, blood loss, body contouring technique or operation time. Corrective procedures were performed in 11 patients (10.6%). The results were compared to recent data. CONCLUSION: Bariatric surgery does not increase risks for complications in subsequent body contouring procedures when compared to massive dietetic weight reduction.

Are clustering effects accounted for in statistical analysis in leading dental specialty journals?

OBJECTIVES In dental research multiple site observations within patients or taken at various time intervals are commonplace. These clustered observations are not independent; statistical analysis should be amended accordingly. This study aimed to assess whether adjustment for clustering effects during statistical analysis was undertaken in five specialty dental journals. METHODS Thirty recent consecutive issues of Orthodontics (OJ), Periodontology (PJ), Endodontology (EJ), Maxillofacial (MJ) and Paediatric Dentristry (PDJ) journals were hand searched. Articles requiring adjustment accounting for clustering effects were identified and statistical techniques used were scrutinized. RESULTS Of 559 studies considered to have inherent clustering effects, adjustment for this was made in the statistical analysis in 223 (39.1%). Studies published in the Periodontology specialty accounted for clustering effects in the statistical analysis more often than articles published in other journals (OJ vs. PJ: OR=0.21, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.37, p<0.001; MJ vs. PJ: OR=0.02, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.07, p<0.001; PDJ vs. PJ: OR=0.14, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.28, p<0.001; EJ vs. PJ: OR=0.11, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.22, p<0.001). A positive correlation was found between increasing prevalence of clustering effects in individual specialty journals and correct statistical handling of clustering (r=0.89). CONCLUSIONS The majority of studies in 5 dental specialty journals (60.9%) examined failed to account for clustering effects in statistical analysis where indicated, raising the possibility of inappropriate decreases in p-values and the risk of inappropriate inferences.

Genome-wide analysis in German shepherd dogs reveals association of a locus on CFA 27 with atopic dermatitis

Humans and dogs are both affected by the allergic skin disease atopic dermatitis (AD), caused by an interaction between genetic and environmental factors. The German shepherd dog (GSD) is a high-risk breed for canine AD (CAD). In this study, we used a Swedish cohort of GSDs as a model for human AD. Serum IgA levels are known to be lower in GSDs compared to other breeds. We detected significantly lower IgA levels in the CAD cases compared to controls (p = 1.1 × 10(-5)) in our study population. We also detected a separation within the GSD cohort, where dogs could be grouped into two different subpopulations. Disease prevalence differed significantly between the subpopulations contributing to population stratification (λ = 1.3), which was successfully corrected for using a mixed model approach. A genome-wide association analysis of CAD was performed (n cases = 91, n controls = 88). IgA levels were included in the model, due to the high correlation between CAD and low IgA levels. In addition, we detected a correlation between IgA levels and the age at the time of sampling (corr = 0.42, p = 3.0 × 10(-9)), thus age was included in the model. A genome-wide significant association was detected on chromosome 27 (praw = 3.1 × 10(-7), pgenome = 0.03). The total associated region was defined as a ~1.5-Mb-long haplotype including eight genes. Through targeted re-sequencing and additional genotyping of a subset of identified SNPs, we defined 11 smaller haplotype blocks within the associated region. Two blocks showed the strongest association to CAD. The ~209-kb region, defined by the two blocks, harbors only the PKP2 gene, encoding Plakophilin 2 expressed in the desmosomes and important for skin structure. Our results may yield further insight into the genetics behind both canine and human AD.

Health risk appraisal in older people 6: factors associated with self-reported poor vision and uptake of eye tests in older people

BACKGROUND Although free eye testing is available in the UK from a nation-wide network of optometrists, there is evidence of unrecognised, tractable vision loss amongst older people. A recent review identified this unmet need as a priority for further investigation, highlighting the need to understand public perceptions of eye services and barriers to service access and utilisation. This paper aims to identify risk factors for (1) having poor vision and (2) not having had an eyesight check among community-dwelling older people without an established ophthalmological diagnosis. METHODS Secondary analysis of self-reported data from the ProAge trial. 1792 people without a known ophthalmological diagnosis were recruited from three group practices in London. RESULTS Almost two in ten people in this population of older individuals without known ophthalmological diagnoses had self-reported vision loss, and more than a third of them had not had an eye test in the previous twelve months. In this sample, those with limited education, depressed mood, need for help with instrumental and basic activities of daily living (IADLs and BADLs), and subjective memory complaints were at increased risk of fair or poor self-reported vision. Individuals with basic education only were at increased risk for not having had an eye test in the previous 12 months (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.17-1.98 p=0.002), as were those with no, or only one chronic condition (OR 1.850, 95% CI 1.382-2.477, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Self-reported poor vision in older people without ophthalmological diagnoses is associated with other functional losses, with no or only one chronic condition, and with depression. This pattern of disorders may be the basis for case finding in general practice. Low educational attainment is an independent determinant of not having had eye tests, as well as a factor associated with undiagnosed vision loss. There are other factors, not identified in this study, which determine uptake of eye testing in those with self-reported vision loss. Further exploration is needed to identify these factors and lead towards effective case finding.

A study of the relationship between physical activity and cardiovascular fitness and coronary heart disease risk factors in female adolescents

The association of measures of physical activity with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in children, especially those for atherosclerosis, is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine the association of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness with blood lipids and lipoproteins in pre-adolescent and adolescent girls.^ The study population was comprised of 131 girls aged 9 to 16 years who participated in the Children's Nutrition Research Center's Adolescent Study. The dependent variables, blood lipids and lipoproteins, were measured by standard techniques. The independent variables were physical activity measured as the difference between total energy expenditure (TEE) and basal metabolic rate (BMR), and cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg). TEE was measured by the doubly-labeled water (DLW) method, and BMR by whole-room calorimetry. Cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg), was measured on a motorized treadmill. The potential confounding variables were sexual maturation (Tanner breast stage), ethnic group, body fat percent, and dietary variables. A systematic strategy for data analysis was used to isolate the effects of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness on blood lipids, beginning with assessment of confounding and interaction. Next, from regression models predicting each blood lipid and controlling for covariables, hypotheses were evaluated by the direction and value of the coefficients for physical activity and cardiovascular fitness.^ The main result was that cardiovascular fitness appeared to be more strongly associated with blood lipids than physical activity. An interaction between cardiovascular fitness and sexual maturation indicated that the effect of cardiovascular fitness on most blood lipids was dependent on the stage of sexual maturation.^ A difference of 760 kcal/d physical activity (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile of physical activity) was associated with negligible differences in blood lipids. In contrast, a difference in 10 ml/min/kg of VO$\rm\sb{2max}$ or cardiovascular fitness (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile in cardiovascular fitness) in the early stages of sexual maturation was associated with an average positive difference of 15 mg/100 ml ApoA-1 and 10 mg/100 ml HDL-C. ^

Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk factors in Mexican-American children from parental risk factors, and social and demographic characteristics in the HHANES

Objectives. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) including CVD secondary to diabetes type II, a significant health problem among Mexican American populations, originates in early childhood. This study seeks to determine risk factors available to the health practitioner that can identify the child at potential risk of developing CVD, thereby enabling early intervention. ^ Design. This is a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data of matched Mexican American parents and children selected from the HHANES, 1982–1984. ^ Methods. Parents at high risk for CVD were identified based on medical history, and clinical and physical findings. Factor analysis was performed on children's skinfold thicknesses, height, weight, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures, in order to produce a limited number of uncorrelated child CVD risk factors. Multiple regression analyses were then performed to determine other CVD markers associated with these Factors, independently for mothers and fathers. ^ Results. Factor analysis of children's measurements revealed three uncorrelated latent variables summarizing the children's CVD risk: Factor1: ‘Fatness’, Factor2: ‘Size and Maturity’, and Factor3: ‘Blood Pressure’, together accounting for the bulk of variation in children's measurements (86–89%). Univariate analyses showed that children from high CVD risk families did not differ from children of low risk families in occurrence of high blood pressure, overweight, biological maturity, acculturation score, or social and economic indicators. However, multiple regression using the factor scores (from factor analysis) as dependent variables, revealed that higher CVD risk in parents, was significantly associated with increased fatness and increased blood pressure in the children. Father's CVD risk status was associated with higher levels of body fat in his children and higher levels of blood pressure in sons. Mother's CVD risk status was associated with higher blood pressure levels in children, and occurrence of obesity in the mother associated with higher fatness levels in her children. ^ Conclusion. Occurrence of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in parents of Mexican American children, may be used to identify children at potentially higher risk for developing CV disease in the future. Obesity in mothers appears to be an important marker for the development of higher levels of body fatness in children. ^